Storms Saturday?

Submitted by gbdub on

Current weather predictions are showing a high chance of storms all day Saturday (which sucks, as this is the only game I'm going to be able to make this year).

Which team does this help/hurt more? Both teams seem pretty reliant on the pass so far this year, though I expect Michigan's D to hold up better. Still, a lower scoring affair could be dangerous if Michigan busts a few plays like they did against UCF. 

Just hoping this one doesn't get rained out like the last Utah game.

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RakeFight

September 14th, 2016 at 11:54 AM ^

This is identicle to the forecast last week at this time for the UCF game... yet storms held off, and rain was inconsequential.  

But I look forward to out military sister providing us a more accurate forecast.

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michgoblue

September 14th, 2016 at 12:05 PM ^

Under normal conditions, the team with vastly superior talent and coaching usually wins.  Weather, is not "normal conditions" and odd things can happen in the rain - a ball slips through a receiver's hands for a pick, fumbles, muffed punts, bad snaps, etc.  Sure, these things can happen to either team, but they are a complete wildcard, and can drastically alter a game.  Weahter can often negate a talent advantage.

As the team with vastly superior talent and coaching, I am hoping for good weather.

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mgowild

September 14th, 2016 at 12:17 PM ^

"Weather can often negate a talent advantage"

See last season's game between MSU and OSU. Rain and wind prevented OSU from attacking what was a pretty pedestrian secondary, and the result was an ugly game in which neither team got much going offensively. 

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michgoblue

September 14th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^

I am certainly not a weatherman, but I did stay in a Holiday Inn Express, so I am pretty sure I know what I am talking about.

The two common weather cites are weather.com and accuweather. 

If you look at weather.com, while it shows a very high chance of rain on Saturday, the percentage likelihood of percipitation for the 2 days before and after are around 10%.  That means that it is not a huge storm that is expected to blanker the region for days, but rather a smaller storn that should move through.  The question really is when.  This far out, these things change a ton - the storm could come Friday, Saturday, Sunday, or not at all.  Not saying that it won't rain at gametime, but I wouldn't put too much stock into this. 

Now let's look at accuweather:  Friday is forecast to be "partly sunny and delightful" with a very low chance of percipitation.  Sunday is showing partly sunny and partly cloudy with "a morning shower in spots."  Even Saturday is listed at "mostly cloudy . . . with a shower or thunderstorn around" and only around a 50% percipitation rate. 

So, taken together, while there is certainly a chance of some rain, there is an equally good chance that it is just an overcast and humid day. 

 

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PoseyHipster

September 14th, 2016 at 12:14 PM ^

Yeah, and the National Weather Service has it forecast as a 60% chance of precipitation, with thunderstorms likely before 9pm.  It's important to keep in mind that the 60% refers to how often there is precipitation when there is a similar weather system, not how much of the time it is going to be raining or something like that.  Way too early to worry about it.

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corundum

September 14th, 2016 at 3:20 PM ^

That's not what 60% means at all. In forecasting, percentages refer to the percent of precipitation areal coverage of the forecast zone, via pixels at the resolution of the model. So that means that 60% of the NWS forecast zone will have rain at the valid forecast time.

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gbdub

September 14th, 2016 at 12:52 PM ^

I was going off weather underground (which is saying ~75% precipitation chance throughout the day) and weather.com.

What was concerning to me is that the forecast has gotten worse over the past couple days, and at 3 days out you're starting to reach the "pretty accurate" forecast range.



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Borges_so_Beautiful

September 14th, 2016 at 12:44 PM ^

We have better athletes on the edge (Michigan O vs. Colorado D) for screens, a hulk of a TE, a nice and boring QB who doesn't mess up, a veritable stable of FBs, and a brick shithouse of a RB.

We also have a hard-nosed defense with a freakishly athletic DL who create an impenetrable barrier up the middle, DBs who can play on an island, and speedy LBs.

I think our team is built for playing in the rain, wind, and snow.

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chickenpotpie

September 14th, 2016 at 12:44 PM ^

I tend to feel like precipitation usually just creates chaos and doesn't necessarily advantage either team.

However, I also fully believe that Harbaugh has forced the team to practice in all manner of simulated natural disasters, inclusive of hurricanes and tornadoes, and so they will be fully prepared.

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corundum

September 14th, 2016 at 3:25 PM ^

The NWS is the only organization with the funding to send up weather balloons daily. Every other site uses the NWS data and less qualified meteorologists to produce a forecast. weather.gov is by far the best source for forecasts. Read the forecast discussion some time and see how technical it is compared to the write ups on intellicast or accuweather: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=DTX&issuedby=DTX&product=A…

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Crime Reporter

September 14th, 2016 at 1:20 PM ^

I'm already starting to get anxious about this game and the weather could make the outcome that much closer, especially if our key guys are out again.

I'm stressed enough with work so I'd prefer the relaxing beatdowns of the first two games.

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