One of the BEST Defensive Lines in The Nation
September 16th, 2015 at 11:44 AM ^
I doubt college football teams across all of D1 are distributed on anything close to a normal bell-curve distribution. In fact, it seems to me that D1 CFB teams are probably distributed leptokurtically, with a higher peak around the average, and fatter tails (i.e. more teams at farther extremes).
"Did you want to talk about the weather, or were you just making chit-chat?" Bill Murray, "Groundhog's Day"
September 16th, 2015 at 12:23 PM ^
probably the first EVER use of the word "leptokurtic" on a college football blog. Well done.
I tend to agree with your hyopthesis regarding the shape of the curve.
September 16th, 2015 at 3:09 PM ^
Thanks. I jumped the gun and made a less sophisticated version of this argument before reading this, but yes. Saying 64th is both average and median assumes perfect normal distribution.
September 16th, 2015 at 2:20 PM ^
Utah is #35 of 128 in S&P+ overall... but since we're talking about our defense:
Utah offensive S&P+: #63 of 128
Oregon State is #85 of 128 in S+P+.... but since we're talking about our defense:
Oregon State offensive S&P+: #122 of 128
So as far as offenses go -
Utah is in the fat part of the bell curve overall in D1, but at the low end of P5 teams.
Oregon State is at the absolute bottom. One of the most awful offenses in all of D1 football.
September 16th, 2015 at 11:00 AM ^
24 months ago, Sparty was unranked and a mess on defense. They finished that season in the Rose Bowl as B1G champs. We were undefeated, ranked and considered an above average team. I wouldn't pay attention to the polls until mid-October.
September 16th, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^
Until Michigan is ranked. Then I may obsess over them a bit.
Early season polls are BS though, even when Michigan is ranked. Auburn has no business being in the top 25. And neither do any one loss teams.
September 16th, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
I watched their game against Eastern Washington and their defense was awful. I understand the AP Polls -- they have to sell newspapers that nobody reads. But the Coaches should wait until October. If a former Secretary of State and an athletic director who doesn't know what it means to actually retire from coaching can wait until October to wait, so can the coaches.
September 16th, 2015 at 2:06 PM ^
MSU did not do nearly as well on offense against Oregon as Eastern Washington did a week earlier when it played at Oregon and still got 10 more first downs that MSU got, 160 more total yards and 11 more points. Except for its very first rush of 62 yards, MSU's rushing game looked pretty weak, and Cook did not look "special" either, as he got only 6 YPA, whereas the Eastern Washington QB had 8 YPA while throwing 55 times. And even with Oregon having a QB with an injured hand, MSU's "vaunted" defense gave up 28 points.
September 16th, 2015 at 6:51 PM ^
yep, some may not realize it but oregon lost multiple defenders to nfl and had to replace like 8-9 2-deep guys on that side.
well see how they end up later in the year since thats when it really counts, but they havent looked good so far. they look much weaker at all 3 levels of D, particularly back 7 playing soft vs the run, missing tackles all over, giving up huge plays.
itll be interesting to see if oregon turns it around on that side bc they still have an O capable of winning the conference
September 16th, 2015 at 11:06 AM ^
September 16th, 2015 at 11:12 AM ^
Rankings are useless right now.
September 16th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
Being a top #25 team doesn't mean you are "above average". It doesn't mean ANYTHING this early in the season. It means you are winning a popularity contest
September 16th, 2015 at 12:57 PM ^
Predicition - Utah will have 3 losses in a month from now and will finish with 7 wins.
Being a top 25 team in week 2 doesnt mean much.
With that said, I expect the DL to be the best part of the team the next 2 years.
September 16th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
The article from Mlive says the D line is "working" to be one of the best defensive lines in the country.
Time will tell if we reach that pinnacle of success, but it's looking like we should be pretty good.
September 16th, 2015 at 10:19 AM ^
Unless there's a video that I don't see. The link to the story is enough. Good job, great info. But I agree with Wolverine in Iowa...lets not get too far ahead of ourselves, but they sure are on the right track with that line and the rest of the D.
September 16th, 2015 at 10:20 AM ^
Let's get through the first 4-5 games before we all get goose bumps. Will have a better idea then.
September 16th, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^
After 8 years in the desert I'll take the goosebumps with a side of happy endorphin release thank you very much
September 16th, 2015 at 10:51 AM ^
September 16th, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
True, but if you weren't impressed by the production through two games consider that Michigan has played 2 PAC-12 teams and many other teams have played patsies and/or FCS teams.
When viewed through this lens, it is encouraging and exciting, at least for me. I've had a lot of pessimism since 2008 and it's time to suck that venom out.
September 16th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
September 16th, 2015 at 10:20 AM ^
But we need and want more than that now. You just summarized the last several years (i.e. a good defense that kept us in games when the offense was god-awful). Now I want a great defense (better than the last several years even) and an offense that AT LEAST doesn't lose the game for us...
September 16th, 2015 at 10:23 AM ^
in the OSU game when they snapped the ball over the kicker's head you saw the Michigan defenders barreling down on the kicker. The camera point of view gave a kicker's view of it and it was scary.
Wolverine helmets will soon become a THING OF NIGHTMARES again!
September 16th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^
Charles Woodson says, ''Now that's art.''
September 16th, 2015 at 12:32 PM ^
September 16th, 2015 at 10:56 AM ^
That's Hackett's version of a mascot. Something dark and menacing that scares children.
September 16th, 2015 at 11:05 AM ^
You just described a tanned Dave Brandon
September 16th, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^
The toy boy was never very coy, but he did aim to destroy. Hide the children!
September 16th, 2015 at 3:16 PM ^
got too excited when he saw Harbaugh and lost control when it was between his legs.
September 16th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^
Weird that all three members of OSU's " shield" went to the right. They left the left side wide open for our rush. That punt might have been blocked if it weren't yakity snapped.
September 16th, 2015 at 10:22 AM ^
So let's turn this into a discussion ... what game metrics would we like to see to indicate progress from "good" to "great?"
Score, obviously ...
But order your preferred metrics:
- TFL -- to indicate pressure?
- INT -- to indicate secondary?
- YAC -- (catch or contact) to indicate aggressiveness?
September 16th, 2015 at 10:32 AM ^
My favorite metric is CGL otherwise known as: my Confidence in the defense when the Game is on the Line, Even the last couple years, with a pretty good D, your gut feeling probably wasn't good in the 4th quarter when we needed the big stop. I think that's changing...for the good!
September 16th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^
Those are for nerds. TWTW, baby!
~ popular moron Hawk Harrelson
September 16th, 2015 at 11:26 AM ^
I was always a huge fan of the stats which give some insight into how hard a team is needing to work to get points or stops, expected average return on red zone drives, and other ones which seem to gauge the quality of overall play. For example, points per play, yards per point, yards per play....also conversion and turnover differentials to see who is winning those battles. All of them can be figured for offense and defense, of course.
September 16th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
If we stick to defense (the focus of the OP), then I tend to focus on:
- 3rd down conversion rate -- as a measure of efficiency getting a stop when it really matters. Breaking that down to "stops on 3rd and short" vs. "stops on 3rd and long" is interesting as well ... short = gut-check stops; long = not allowing the demoralizing conversion.
- 1st down production -- as a measure of efficiency limiting the opponent's offense to facing more challenging 2nd- and 3rd-and longs. This is a stat most basic box scores don't cover, so it has to be teased out.
- Sacks, TFL, QB hurries -- because it indicates how much pressure we're getting. Ideally the stat would be broken out by "front-four only" vs. "front-four + blitz". Pressure from the four four is what great defense do consistently.
I'm torn on YAC for a defensive stat since it implies a catch. I'd rather no catches. Maybe a better stat of defensive efficiency on passing is completion percentage, but that number gets a bit cloudy since so many factors can enter into an incomplete.
I don't know if there's a stat to measure effectiveness stopping the edge rushes and screens. So far we've been okay, but I'm not sure we've faced a truly fast edge team. I love our LB corp, but I think LB speed is an issue.
September 16th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^
September 16th, 2015 at 1:10 PM ^
uhhh points allowed? i.e. causing the other team not to score points is always a good "advanced metric".
September 16th, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
Add yards allowed or YPP and I think you're good to go.
September 16th, 2015 at 1:27 PM ^
I had "Score, obviously" in my post.
But points allowed is too coarse a metric. Example: a team could gash the Michigan defense but have some untimely unforced turnovers. They don't score or not much. Is that because of Michigan's defense? No.
Plus, the points allowed metric doesn't tell much on a game-to-game basis because it doesn't take into account the opponent's offense. If Michigan shuts out UNLV but allows 28 to Ohio State, does that mean our defense is getting worse? No, not necessarily.
I'd bet dollars to donuts Harbaugh and Durkin have all manner of defensive metrics they track game to game. I thought it'd be fun to bat the ball around a bit on the topic of defensive metrics.
September 16th, 2015 at 10:24 AM ^
September 16th, 2015 at 10:37 AM ^
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September 16th, 2015 at 11:05 AM ^
That's what she said
September 16th, 2015 at 10:47 AM ^
September 16th, 2015 at 11:54 AM ^
September 16th, 2015 at 12:01 PM ^
Should be interesting to watch if they start flipping Henry and Wormley at times to cause confusion in the O. Nice thing about having a bunch of linement in the 290-310 range is you can move them around. Henry can play any of the the 3 line spots. Wormley makes sense at a couple and can be used situationally at NT too. glasgow's probably a pure nose, but they rotate taco, hurst, and godin in frequently enough that Michigan can offer a lot of looks.
September 16th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^
September 16th, 2015 at 10:27 AM ^
I'm excited just because I think we will improve as the year goes on. You can already see signs of it. In the past, it didn't seem like that was the case. We may be a tough out by the end of the season.
September 16th, 2015 at 10:28 AM ^
Better take the rose colored glasses off. It is a little early to be talking best of anything yet....
September 16th, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^
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September 16th, 2015 at 10:34 AM ^
Rose? You serious, bruh??
September 16th, 2015 at 11:08 AM ^
Rose. As in:
I hope.