Where did the "OSU knew there would be an investigation before anyone else" narrative come from?

Submitted by Heptarch on November 30th, 2023 at 4:04 PM

I remember reading a LOT of commentary here on the Blog in the weeks leading up to the news breaking about the investigation about how the OSU blogs/forums/message boards were way out in front of the investigation. That led to a lot of discussion after the fact about how that prescience seems to be an argument that OSU hired the PI.

What I don't know is where that narrative came from. Was it Eleven Warriors? Some of the paywalled sites?

Feel free to downvote me into oblivion if no one wants to revisit this, I was just curious.

TIMMMAAY

November 30th, 2023 at 4:07 PM ^

Doesn't need its own thread... but anyway. 

It isn't a narrative, it's reality. There were multiple OSU "insiders" who were talking about something major coming down on Michigan, at least a month before any Michigan "insiders" got wind of it. I'm not sure what you're even asking. Seems like you answer your own question in the OP. 

Hensons Mobile…

November 30th, 2023 at 4:14 PM ^

No snark, but, what does it matter, exactly? Do you need Comment Zero from the OSU message board to believe the narrative?

Similarly, I asked the other day--and did not receive an answer--who the first person was on the internet to post a picture of the guy at the CMU-MSU game and say "This is Connor Stalions!"

Someone said Yood was likely involved in outing CS there, but Yood is not the one who posted it on the internet.

The reason I want to know is because I'm trying to understand why everyone assumes it is actually Stalions and also figure out who was ratting him out (although the answer to that is, apparently, believed to be Yood, which kind of makes sense).

Heptarch

November 30th, 2023 at 4:17 PM ^

As I said in the post, it's mainly curiosity as to whether there's any kind of clear Ur-post on some board that led to the narrative or whether it was something that just got amplified here on the Blog and it took on a life of its own. I'm not on the paywalled sites, so I wondered if maybe that's where people were getting their information.

Heptarch

November 30th, 2023 at 5:07 PM ^

LOL

To be fair, I probably (almost certainly) read those posts and they didn't stick with me for some reason. There's an element of "I've been on this Blog a long time and if there's one thing I know it's that there are some really sharp people who know/remember a helluva lot more than I do" in my post. I understand the snark I got and am happy to soak any negs they feel are necessary. 

Hensons Mobile…

November 30th, 2023 at 5:13 PM ^

I remembered the post from the day this went down this year. I did not remember 2022. I did a search on MGoBlog and this is what came up.

If you cared about negs (I understand that you don't) board etiquette is that you would threadjack somewhere with this question, preferably somewhere it is relevant or in a horrible thread that shouldn't exist.

mtzlblk

November 30th, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^

More recently, Thamel also reported Harbaugh's 3 game suspension from the B1G a full 30 minutes prior to the conference even notifying Michigan or Harbaugh. That says all I need to know about who is being fed information and why. That's an unnatural connection and clear orchestration behind the scenes to a mouthpiece that had already been heavily biased in the situation.

Also, the B1G staffer that provided the information on sign stealing/sharing among coaches of Michigan's signals that also then went to Purdue prior to the BTC game, apparently sent that evidence to Thamel first....who of course intentionally buried it because it went against the narrative he was participating in pushing. Even after it broke on the AP site, he and ESPN barely covered it and only posted a tiny article on it like full day after everyone picked it up.

umfan83

November 30th, 2023 at 5:11 PM ^

wow, I didn't realize the discussion went back to last December, even though that post seems to be pure speculation rather than rumblings with any actual "insider knowledge"

I do remember the rumblings a day or two before the story broke nationally that something bad was about to happen to Michigan, and those rumblings came specifically from bucknuts I believe.  That's basically why there is so much speculation about OSU's involvement, clearly some OSU insider had advanced knowledge of thing before literally anyone else did.

MattG

December 1st, 2023 at 6:41 AM ^

To me, CMU's lack of comment makes it obvious that it must actually have been Stalions.

By not denying it, they look guilty, of something. Either

A) they didn't know he was there and their security protocols were severely breached

Or

B) they knew he was there because they asked for his help in decoding signs.

 

Those are the only two conclusions from their silence. Certainly, if they had any proof at all that it was not CS ("our strength coach has a goatee and wears sunglasses at night!"), we would have heard it by now.

m_go_T

November 30th, 2023 at 5:20 PM ^

There was a lot of chatter for a few weeks on the 247 Buckeye message board (I think it was formerly Bucknuts and now is called "the Front Row" or something).  They said that something was coming down against Michigan and it was going to be be big and bad for them (us).  There was a lot of talk from one of the posters about knowing a guy who was somehow connected to the Days and he had heard that they were investigating Michigan and it was going to be real bad, something that would destroy the program.  That was a week or two before the news broke (and well before the Big Ten allegedly knew about it).

goblu330

November 30th, 2023 at 4:13 PM ^

In fairness, I have not seen any actual evidence of such OSU posts just as I have not seen any evidence of the so-called “established facts” regarding ticket purchases, stadium surveillance, anything.

For all I “know” Georgia Southern hired the PI and Connor Stalions never hired anybody to film any games.

goblu330

November 30th, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^

He may not be.  Or maybe there are multiple Connor Stalions. Connor Stalions I only seems to exist in still frames near Michigan assistants as they think really hard, and Connor Stalions II (who only bears a superficial resemblance to Connor Stalions I) exists only on Central Michigan’s sidelines and for a brief moment on Barstool Sports.

s1105615

November 30th, 2023 at 4:15 PM ^

I remember seeing OSU flairs on Reddit complaining about UM doing so well in the 2nd halves of games last year and saying it must be sign stealing.

Someone, either in or heavily personally invested in their program has the highest probability of being motivated enough to hire a PI and PR firm to push the narrative.  Occam’s Razor.

Logan88

November 30th, 2023 at 4:25 PM ^

I remember seeing OSU flairs on Reddit complaining about UM doing so well in the 2nd halves of games last year and saying it must be sign stealing.

That argument would fly for "legal" sign-stealing (i.e. the kind that happens during the game and everyone seems to be okay with) but makes no sense for advanced scouting as Michigan has been accused of. If you advanced scouted, why would you wait until the second half to implement the knowledge you had acquired?

berto714

November 30th, 2023 at 6:11 PM ^

I asked this very question a few weeks ago on Reddit I think, and the explanation I received (who knows how credible it is) is that it still takes time to figure out who is throwing up the dummy signs and who has the real signs each game.  The gist of it is that teams already employ several different people holding up signs, only one of which has the "real" signs, as a countermeasure to prevent teams from stealing.  So even if you know the real signs, you don't necessarily know who is holding up the real signs and who is holding up the fake ones and it takes at least several drives to sort that out.  Hence the improvement as the game goes on.

Anyway, who knows if the above is true, but it at least seemed like a credible explanation to me.  The sad/frustrating part about about all this is it seems quite clear that we didn't need to do this to win most, if not all, of the games we won.

Yeoman

November 30th, 2023 at 8:18 PM ^

I don't see why it would take more than a few plays, if you really have a full set of signals (like, for example, the set Purdue was sent). They run a play, you know what the signal for it was, only one of their signalers gave it. You watch that guy the next play and confirm it.

Of course you probably have to wait out the beginning-of-game script before you can start, but I don't know why it would take several drives unless you didn't have all the signals going in.

I can see some variations that might make a little harder (different signaler depending on down, say) but I still don't see why it would take a full half if you know what you're doing.

WampaStompa

November 30th, 2023 at 4:31 PM ^

The day before the world learned about Connor Stallions and the signs investigation, there was a reddit post that caused a big stir and turned out to be right: https://www.reddit.com/r/CFB/comments/17bb3yc/is_michigan_football_under_investigation/

The post and his follow up post have been deleted, but if you click on the OP's profile you see that he made a comment explaining the reason he knew something was coming was because there were posts alluding to the investigation on BuckeyeHuddle and the Michigan 247 board. 

Also in one of the Signgate posts or game columns, Brian alluded to OSU insider people acting all giddy on Twitter about big Michigan news in the weeks before it actually dropped.

03 Blue 07

November 30th, 2023 at 4:37 PM ^

OP-

I had this same question, as a friend who is an OSU alum challenged my assertion that OSU message boards knew about it ahead of time. The closest thing I could find in print is Brian's statement here, regarding Buckeye Scoop: https://mgoblog.com/content/i-got-your-sign

In that piece, Brian states as follows:

"The first person to allude to this investigation was Ohio State insider Bill Greene of Buckeye Scoop, the site that was blackballed by OSU for paying a walk-on to give them access to internal Ohio State information. The message board rumors that started up a couple of days ago also came from OSU sources, which point's a big ol' finger at Ryan Day as the primary complainer. I do not believe the message board rumor that Ryan Day hired a private investigator to get at all this… but I kind of do."

I believe I heard Brian say on WTKA or a podcast that once the news broke nationally, those posts had been scrubbed from Buckeye Scoop, FWIW.