Vegas senses something...
95 percent of the betting is on Ohio State, yet they've been readjusted down to minus 7.5. What could be afoot?
November 26th, 2021 at 8:30 PM ^
Probably the Stroud rumors
November 26th, 2021 at 9:39 PM ^
No way in hell Vegas is getting fooled by a rumor even 11W can see through.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:32 PM ^
Been betting since I was 6 and I tend to find there is something to all this. The fact that it was at 8.5 all week staying stagnant with the money coming in on OSU made me glad the sportsbooks were standing their ground, and that the smart money would be on Michigan with the points. But didn’t expect it to go below 8.5, and now that it’s at 7.5 is quite something and seems to indicate there’s some “known betters” betting Michigan.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:45 PM ^
Seriously? Since you were 6? Damn
November 26th, 2021 at 9:00 PM ^
Ludwig von Degenerate!
November 26th, 2021 at 9:55 PM ^
Ludwig eh?
November 27th, 2021 at 8:15 AM ^
He didn't say he was good at betting at age 6. My older brother was known to take advantage of my betting ignorance at age 6.
November 26th, 2021 at 9:25 PM ^
You've been gambling on college football games since you were in first grade?
That's alarming.
November 26th, 2021 at 9:45 PM ^
but still alive to talk about it....pretty cool
November 26th, 2021 at 11:07 PM ^
What were you betting?? Jolly Rancher’s and dum dum suckers?? I bet you were doing 15 team parlays by the age of 7 and lost your virginity in the third grade to your best friends mom too. Or was it a super hot 17 year old baby sitter from down the street.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:39 PM ^
I am picturing a 6 year old with cheap beer and cigarettes watching football. At least I waited until 13.
November 27th, 2021 at 12:38 AM ^
Why not both?
November 27th, 2021 at 1:19 AM ^
Probably both in an epic three-way!
November 27th, 2021 at 7:54 AM ^
17 yo babysitter and friends mom are same person, you were correct twice
November 28th, 2021 at 9:10 AM ^
You were so right!
November 26th, 2021 at 8:32 PM ^
Stroud rumors, weather, and they really like OSU by 7 or less
November 26th, 2021 at 10:48 PM ^
I think it's more about the shitty weather forecast which keeps getting worse and could keep the scoring down
November 27th, 2021 at 7:59 AM ^
Severe Weather Emergency issued for south of I-69 this afternoon. A few inches of snow, that's all. Don't expect that to change much of the action.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:33 PM ^
Beat Ohio.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:33 PM ^
If anything, I think it would suggest Vegas might know about some player holdouts that haven't been made public to the media yet. Perhaps an impact starter will be out (no way it's Stroud, but maybe on of their backs or receivers).
November 26th, 2021 at 8:35 PM ^
Michigan was what, -4 going into the game in 2018? I wouldn’t look too hard at it.
November 26th, 2021 at 9:58 PM ^
Michigan was what, -4 going into the game in 2018? I wouldn’t look too hard at it.
Come on, that doesn't matter! Vegas thinks we will only lose by 7.5. This is good news, because if we lose by less than that, its almost like we win. Can't you understand that? What the hell is wrong with you people?
November 26th, 2021 at 8:35 PM ^
How many people here are betting on OSU to reduce the pain should the good guys lose? I have never done that, but I am tempted.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:45 PM ^
I'd instead burn the money than bet on Ohio State to beat Michigan! At least then I'd reduce the pain caused by the cold weather.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:51 PM ^
Not gonna lie, I am tempted but the moneyline is minus 300, and the moral victory of covering the spread means nothing to me. The sacrifiice for a Michigan victory is losing 3/1 odds.
November 26th, 2021 at 10:15 PM ^
$150 on OSU. Prove me wrong.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:28 PM ^
Just dropped $300 that I will happily lose.
November 27th, 2021 at 12:14 AM ^
Michigan money line only (or parlay with the under). What the mind can believe the body will achieve.
November 27th, 2021 at 2:33 AM ^
I have bet against Michigan on the money line in every game this year. And it's been a very good year for Michigan. You're welcome
November 26th, 2021 at 8:39 PM ^
Tv ratings are going to be bjork.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:44 PM ^
(clears throat)
THAT'S WHY THE SPREAD IS GOING DOWN.
for the thousandth time, point spreads go up or down for one single reason - to try to equalize the betting on both sides. that's it. if 95% of the money is going to the underdog, the spread is going to go down.
edit to add: the downvotes are totally deserved. guess i need some reading comprehension lessons tonight, huh?
what a dumbass.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:49 PM ^
You are describing how lines move normally. This is reverse line movement.
If 95% of money on the favorite (not the underdog) as stated in the OP, and the line is moving away from the favorite (presumably OSU -8 to OSU -7.5), then this is RLM.
This happens reasonably often and is usually indicative of something going on that "the public" isn't aware of. As said upthread, maybe Stroud rumors or maybe a skill player will be out that hasn't been announced.
EDITED: I suppose a large bet by a respected "sharp" might do this, but I'm sure there's been a LOT of money bet on this game, so that would have to be something really significant.
November 26th, 2021 at 10:21 PM ^
Stroud is a true freshman QB and could get rattled by a team that has to win. This is why. People forgetting he's a true freshman and the youth factor applies here.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:30 PM ^
Not a true freshman
November 26th, 2021 at 11:59 PM ^
You would think Stroud being out would move the line by more than a point.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:52 PM ^
(clears throat)
IT’S ACTUALLY EXACTLY THE OPPOSITE
November 26th, 2021 at 8:53 PM ^
But the opposite is happening now, so that wouldn't explain it.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:57 PM ^
If all of a sudden the betting shifted, from 95% OSU, towards Michigan, then there could be something causing that shift. I do agree that rumors have little to no bearing on what the house sets the line at. However, I know that leaks can quickly move the line in a hurry. I honestly believe that there's nothing here and that the line moved because some big bets came in for Michigan. If something big has leaked, you would see much more movement or hold on betting, and reporters would be digging into it.
November 26th, 2021 at 9:01 PM ^
As stated above, this maneuver from Vegas is actually the opposite of what you are describing. Or to simplify, Vegas is incentivizing people to put money on Ohio State despite the fact that 95% of the wagers placed are for OSU to cover. That would suggest the odds makers are aware of something that would impact the spread in a positive way for Michigan.
November 27th, 2021 at 1:13 AM ^
Weather….the belief is the game might go more to the run. I liked OSU at -6 which wax what it was two weeks ago so I took that. Now I think the middle makes sense with 7.5 on the underdog.
November 26th, 2021 at 9:44 PM ^
Imagine making a smarmy ass post then calling the OP a dumbass … all while being totally wrong
November 27th, 2021 at 3:16 AM ^
like i said, i deserve the downvotes. i’ll take my medicine. but the edit was to call *myself* a dumbass, not the original poster.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:01 PM ^
Vegas is not afraid of public money. Nowadays their oddsmakers are incredibly astute, and they are more or less comfortable taking an unlimited amount of public money on the line they set, especially on a marquee matchup like this. They will easily accumulate seven, eight figure liabilities on a side if they are confident in their position. What does scare them are sharps. 100k of a known sharp dropping a side is worth 10mm of public money. On a contrary line move like this, where the line is moving to increase their outstanding liability, it is fair to say that "Vegas knows something".
November 27th, 2021 at 6:19 AM ^
Essentially the only post here that gets it right, yet not even the OP believes it, lol.
I love the phony stat "public" vs "private" money.
Gamblers will believe anything other than the odds are against them.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:47 PM ^
The betting line doesn't exist to predict outcome, only to get an equal number of bettors on either side of the ledger so that the sportsbook can limit their exposure to paying out too much money.
People are slamming UM as the underdog because they think UM might keep it close, not some grand sense that OSU forgot 3/4 of their team on the tarmac and are going to lose.
November 26th, 2021 at 8:54 PM ^
Does the OP not specifically say people are slamming OSU as the favorite?
November 26th, 2021 at 9:17 PM ^
The "equal bets on both sides" is not really a thing for reputable sportsbooks (in most cases), they set and adjust their lines based on their experts and where the "smart money" is going, not the betting community as a whole. They don't care if 90% of the betting is on one side if their proprietary predictive data and top bettors are favoring the other. But anyways this is the opposite, if Vegas wanted to even out the betting the spread would be growing larger, not smaller.
November 26th, 2021 at 11:45 PM ^
Ive always thought it was strange to call it smart money. Its an oblong football and kids that still have acne and midterms. Its a very unpredictable way to make money. Also knowing that 1 out of your ten bets go to pay the house before the games even kickoff is tough to over come. Seems the smart money would be the one sinking it into a solid index fund.