The Road Ahead
4 Games left in the season:
vs Indiana
@ PSU
@ Maryland
vs OSU
What do we consider a likely outcome? What is an acceptable outcome?
I consider Indiana at home a 90% win chance, @PSU a 45% win chance, @Maryland, a 65% win chance, vs OSU a 5% win chance.
Personally, I think Harbaugh needs the team to beat PSU and keep it close vs OSU to get the fanbase back on his side. If the PSU game is lost (or Indiana or Maryland for that matter), only an OSU win will stop people from seeing this as another negative year and another argument against keeping him around.
But even if the team wins 3 of the 4 but OSU absolutely crushes them, I think Harbaugh could be in some trouble as I think even a 10-2 with a loss to MSU and a blowout loss vs OSU won't be good enough to convert any of his critics back into fans of his. And that number of critics is much bigger now than it's been at any previous stage of his tenure IMO.
October 31st, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^
Football will be played.
the team can turn this into fire or let it beat them twice. That is where coaching comes in
October 31st, 2021 at 1:02 PM ^
Don't forget the bowl game
October 31st, 2021 at 1:25 PM ^
I posted this before and I'll post it again. Losses to MSU, PSU and OSU. Then a loss in a second rate Florida bowl game vs a mid level SEC team. 9-4 after a 7-0 start. Another late season implosion
October 31st, 2021 at 2:05 PM ^
9-4 after a 7-0 start. Another late season implosion
So what you're saying is the record is the same as last year without Tomato Can U to pad the win column.
October 31st, 2021 at 5:46 PM ^
Post a link to your preseason prediction
October 31st, 2021 at 6:19 PM ^
That wouldn’t even be an implosion. That would be beating the unranked teams and losing to the ranked teams, which is what we’ve done to date.
October 31st, 2021 at 12:44 PM ^
Harbaugh needs a Penn State win to have a tangible progression point. OSU is not a must win, but he cannot get blowned out like in '18 and '19.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^
7 years in and we're still talking about Harbaugh having a tangible progression point. lol.. Tucker is doing in 2 years what Harbaugh has failed to do in 7
October 31st, 2021 at 1:26 PM ^
I agree with this. “Oh what a positive”, “build off this”… Michigan’s new ceiling is 10-2. Just assume every year we’re going to lose to Michigan State and Ohio State. Whenever we beat one, miracle. Whenever we lose both and another game randomly on the schedule, it’s a bad year.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:42 PM ^
Michigan’s new ceiling is 10-2.
Let's be clear: that's been our de facto ceiling for generations. In the last 50 years, here's how many times we've made it through a full season (bowl included) with zero or one loss:
1971: 11-1
1985: 10-1-1
1992: 9-0-3
1997: 12-0
Since the end of the 1970s, winning about 75% of our games has been what we do. It may be that, given our not-so-great recruiting base and the fact that everyone guns for us, we can't do a lot better. Another coach might beat Sparty more, but then lose to Maryland or whatever.
I'm at a point where I'm all for the 12-team playoff as I just want to make it now and then.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:47 PM ^
Why are we regarded as being leaders and the best then?
October 31st, 2021 at 2:59 PM ^
Branding. It's the same reason we have to hear James Earl Jones say "... BEST UNIVERSITY IN THE WORLD ..." in that video they play before home games.
October 31st, 2021 at 4:31 PM ^
A university is more than a football team
October 31st, 2021 at 5:49 PM ^
Google it, dumbass
October 31st, 2021 at 2:03 PM ^
72, 73, 74 all were seasons with only one blemish. 86 was 10-1-1. But yeah, your point is valid. UM usually rarely gets through a season with less than 2 losses.
October 31st, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^
This does not disprove your point, but sets the record straight
1972 10-1
1973 10-1
1974 10-1
October 31st, 2021 at 1:37 PM ^
I mean, in Harbaugh's 2nd year it sure looked just as good if not better than what Tucker is currently doing.
1)Let's just see what Tucker looks like in his 4th-5th year at MSU (if he's there that long).
2)Tucker found the Monopoly square in a McDonalds Sweepstakes in Kenneth Walker. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't think Walker was perceived as being anywhere near this good until he just blew up this year. Tucker is clearly a good HC but he was awfully fortunate to get such surprise piece in the transfer portal.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:55 PM ^
Walker was already known good at Wake, and Tucker actively went out and recruited him to MSU to fill a roster need.
It’s bizarre to minimize this; recruiting and roster management is a major part of the man’s job — KW3 at MSU didn’t happen by mistake.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^
If you think Tucker just got super fortunate with Walker and that's the only reason MSU is good, come on. What would the narrative be if Michigan got Walker and he was a beast? "Yeah, that Harbaugh! He saw something no one else saw!" Tucker found a diamond in the rough and put him in all the right spots to succeed.
He has his team believing. His offense is incredibly dynamic; they have playmakers ALL over the field. His defense has a ton of warts but he has them playing smart and not putting all the pressure on their secondary.
Dude is basically in his first full year, is 2-0 against Michigan, and has them potentially on the road to Indy.
October 31st, 2021 at 2:42 PM ^
This seems to be a bit of an exaggeration. I give Tucker credit, because he is the reason for their success. Walker has been great, but explain to me where their "playmakers ALL over the field" are? I'll give you a handful on offense, but their defense just gave up 550 yards.
I have a hard time accepting that MSU is a better football team based on the outcome of yesterday's game (and yes, I understand that is the only outcome that matters). Michigan could and should have won that game by 2+ scores.
October 31st, 2021 at 2:51 PM ^
You don't have to accept is- that's fine. They won the game, and that's all that matters.
Reed and Nailor are absolute threats. Thorne's not great, but he can throw a fantastic deep ball and seems to be in control of everything they are doing- and he's been able to make plays with his legs when he needs to.
October 31st, 2021 at 4:00 PM ^
That is because Michigan fans like to equate more talented team with better team and that is not the case nor has it been the case for most of the last 15 years against MSU. I'd hate to go back and compare how many players Michigan has put into the NFL in the last 15 years compared to MSU even during the Hoke and Rich Rod years and see how we have absolutely nothing to show for it.
If the win on the field doesnt make MSU the better team...what exactly does?
October 31st, 2021 at 1:44 PM ^
After year 2 Harbaugh was on a great trajectory. For all we know Tucker will implode at MSU. One good season does not a great coach make.
Nor does one bad season (2020) make Harbaugh a bad coach. Throwing out the covid year he won: 10, 10, 8, 10, 9. Not exactly a bad record (.720 win pct. and 9-wins a season and he'll get 9+ wins again this year).
It's the 3-4 record vs. MSU, the 3-3 vs. PSU and absolutely the 0-5 vs. OSU that is the disappointment.
Has he lived up to fan expectations? No. Were those fan expectations even reasonable given this is Michigan and we don't take transfers or throw around the bag of cash or commit other rules violations like other schools might? Probably not.
This year has absolutely shown progression. This team does have a different swagger than his teams of the past, they do seem to truly love playing football together. And no, losing to MSU is not good, disappointing in fact. But this was a good MSU team, and Macdonald is still a first year coordinator.
If you went back to August and said this team would be without it's best WR from game 1 and they'd be 7-1 at this point (and with a chance to legit win 10 regular season games) you wouldn't believe it at all. If what Harbaugh has done from 2020 to 2021 is not progress that's good enough for you, maybe you should go be an OSU or Alabama fan because I can all but guarantee you will never be satisfied with anything Michigan does.
October 31st, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^
Actually, in spite of all the questions regarding this team, I did not see it being incredibly far-fetched the team would be 7-0 headed into the MSU week. Have you seen who they have played? The ONLY game I thought was a big question mark was Wisconsin. To his credit, Harbaugh got that done.
No one said Harbaugh is a bad coach. He's a solid coach. But that's it. It's the seventh year. It is what it is. He cannot beat better teams.
October 31st, 2021 at 8:35 PM ^
3-4 against MSU is his worst record.
He has been behind the 8-ball in recruiting with OSU due to Meyer being there and what not, okay.
Penn State at 50/50 is about right.
But to be BELOW .500 against Michigan State who you have out-recruited, outplayed over the 7 games, etc is just unbelievable. “Trouble with the snap” is bad luck, but yesterday was an absolute joke. EVEN WITH POOR OFFICIATING, Harbaugh had to win that game and instead, we continue to watch this musical QB chair situation and eventually it was going to bite Harbaugh in the ass, and yesterday it did. Harbaugh and Michigan are a National joke. No team is afraid to play Michigan.
Thank God basketball is around the corner, this [football] season just feels empty now. Way to go, Jim!
October 31st, 2021 at 4:55 PM ^
Magical pixie dust and future heisman winner Kenneth Walker is getting it done. Mel Tucker has been a mediocre coach until this season. Kenneth Walker won that game. The rest of that MSU team loses by 3 touchdowns without him. And nothing other than Scott Frost’s karma is needed to explain Nebraska coughing up that game against MSU. That was a meltdown. Tucker’s boys were whipped in that one.
October 31st, 2021 at 5:25 PM ^
MSU has had much better receiver play this year than us...besides KW
October 31st, 2021 at 5:26 PM ^
Before we go proclaiming Mel Tucker to be the next Knute Rockne let’s see what he does next week at Purdue without the homer refs looking for the big home town cheer, against PSU where Clifford will pick apart that secondary and at OSU which could be a bloodbath. There’s a lot of season left.
October 31st, 2021 at 6:40 PM ^
Yes, a super average, injured Sean Clifford.
He's not Tom Brady. He's a decent B10 QB.
November 1st, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
I disagree… 2016 he was 9-0 going into the Iowa game and beat MSU (on the road no less).
pretty similar year 2 in my mind so far.
October 31st, 2021 at 12:45 PM ^
People would be absolutely crazy to be upset with a 10-2 season even if those two losses are to the rivals. I’m not ready to concede any game. In some ways I’m happy Indiana is a night game because maybe it gives the team something to be excited about and get up for after a deflating loss. Then you go on the road to a tough PSU get a win there and there are two games left. Personally I think we still have everything to play for. It’s not completely in our control but the team should do everything in their power to get to 10-1 and then pull a Sparty and make OSU the fricking Super Bowl. Brady Hoke was pretty much always competitive with them there is absolutely no reason at home we can’t have a competitive game with them.
October 31st, 2021 at 12:58 PM ^
This is what the program is now.
If fans are happy with not winning championships, getting 8-10 wins per season, and losing their biggest games of the year, then by all means, Jim Harbaugh is your guy.
If you want this program to potentially reach higher, Harbaugh is standing in your way. I fully understand there is a built-in risk of trying something new. But ask how it's working out for MSU- paying for a guy we all made fun of, took a roster that was decimated, and has them competing for a Big Ten championship in second year (basically his first full year) and is 2-0 against Harbaugh.
The proof is in the pudding. The numbers speak for themselves. Harbaugh beats who he is supposed to, loses when he's supposed to, and never, ever punches above his weight.
It does sadden me already that some of the tone of the board has shifted back to this being OK and that we just have to forget about this loss and hope for the best. That attitude is a general microcosm of the way the program is. Happy being where they are.
Maybe I'm in the minority, but from a program that is as storied as Michigan, with as many resources as Michigan has; they should be a powerhouse. They should be beating OSU as much as losing to them. They should be winning a Big Ten Championship once every 25 years or however long it's been. In the biggest moments when the team needs to step up, they do.
I've said it over and over again, and will continue to say until well until change is made. Michigan basketball is everything Michigan football SHOULD be. No talking. Just winning.
He's gone through coach after coach, scheme after scheme, QB after QB. At some point, it is what it is. You have to put the finger at the head of the empire. If I would have told the typical Michigan fan when Harbaugh was standing at the press conference that after SEVEN years, he would have the record he does now, you would have barred him from Ann Arbor.
The two parties need to sit down at the end of the season, shake hands, and go their separate ways.
There was a poster who said something along the lines of "5 points is the difference between you wanting Harbaugh to stay or go?" (the amount of points Michigan needed to beat MSU." Yes. Yes it is. Those five points have eluded Jim in the biggest stages of his Michigan career.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:13 PM ^
Couldn't have said it better. This is why I love the basketball program and loathe the football program. They couldn't be more opposite in attitude and production.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
My emotions for football are generally flat until a game like yesterday when I get excited. They always let me down, then I get over it quick when I realize we have a great basketball program coming up soon.
I stopped getting into recruiting and the hype a long time ago because of what's been happening.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:19 PM ^
Yes. This roster has talent and speed. We saw that yesterday. Just need to find somebody to maximize that talent and put the kids in the best chance to win. If we hire somebody else and start going 7-5 so be it.
I’d rather roll the dice and see if we can be better than 3-4th in the East than have empty 9-10 win seasons. MSU was left for dead in 2019.
Since being left for dead they’re 2-0 against their biggest rival and the only undefeated team in the Big 10. Mel Tucker went out and got an unheard of amount of transfers. He used the new rules to his advantage. That’s what a good coach does. Impressive he got so many new comers to embrace a winning culture immediately. Find a coach like that.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
Enjoy your 8 to 10 win seasons. Odds are the University will extend Harbaughs contract before it expires Harbaugh runs a clean program and usually beats the teams he should beat but always have and always will lose the big games! I really don't think he will beat OSU during his tenure here but the University leaders could careless about having an elite football program.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:28 PM ^
This guy gets it. 10-2 is progress from Rich Rod/Brady Hoke. And I’d rather that than take another shot at some unknown and blow it all up again. Just stay a Top-15 to Top-20 program and be done with it. Harbaugh is nothing better, nothing worse.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:29 PM ^
You'd rather them continue to get empty 8-10 win seasons without championships than take a risk for a championship?
October 31st, 2021 at 1:58 PM ^
This is what the program has always been. I just don’t understand people that act like UM used to go undefeated all the time. Yeah, when OSU wasn’t a Death Star, they used to with the Big 10 occasionally, but that isn’t the case now. If you think another coach can change it, by all means, but acting like JH has crashed a Lamborghini is ridiculous. If anything 1997 was a complete anomaly and shouldn’t have happened.
October 31st, 2021 at 2:26 PM ^
The program has not always been:
0-5 probably 0-6 against OSU
3-4 against MSU
2-13 against top ten teams
2-9 against ranked teams on the road
Lloyd Carr may have had similar records but he won bigger games. He was 19-8 in top ten matchups. Even if you want to simply get back to Lloyd Carr levels we're not even there.
Also you keep saying "this is what we've always been" like it's wrong to be striving for better. MSU was a 6-6 to 7-5 program every year for 40 years and in the last 12 years has gone 11-2, 11-3, 13-1, 11-2, 12-2, and now are 8-0. What is stopping Michigan from doing that?
October 31st, 2021 at 11:44 PM ^
What is Harbaugh’s biggest accomplishment at Michigan? How many years of failing to make a big ten championship would you pull the plug? How many years would you give him to beat OSU?
if he is retained what is an acceptable record against MSU in the next 2 years?
these aren’t rhetorical I’m interested in your perspective on what you feel would be acceptable.
October 31st, 2021 at 2:00 PM ^
I'm with you.
October 31st, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
As the above poster mentioned, this is when coaching comes to play. For all the crap I give Franklin, his psu team showed up. Maybe that’s the makeup of that team but it’s often a reflection of coaching after a loss like IL.
This season can still end really well but does this team have enough to pull it off? I believe they are more talented than 3 of the above 4 teams.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:21 PM ^
Franklin always does well against OSU. His coaching malpractice is never really in display in that game. It’s the other games Franklin is very questionable.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:34 PM ^
Did you not see the end of the 2017 game? Franklin's coaching definitely blew that one
October 31st, 2021 at 1:45 PM ^
Franklin is definitely not some elite head coach, but even he has won a BTT. It's not impossible. It can be done.
October 31st, 2021 at 1:54 PM ^
I don't fucking understand how this is an argument.
Franklin lost to fucking Illinois. That puts his team at the same level as...Nebraska. The fact that he didn't have a backup better than a 50% Sean Clifford is a serious indictment on his coaching.
And for all those "close games" against OSU he has all of...one win...against them. Which featured some all-time luck of a late 4th quarter FG block returned for a TD. Wow. What a guy. So much better than Harbaugh.
And Michigan absolutely "showed up" yesterday. To pretend otherwise is to rewrite history. The team was absolutely prepared to beat MSU. But it didn't work out. Sometimes you can do things generally well and still lose. That's life.
November 1st, 2021 at 6:22 AM ^
Never said Franklin was so much better than Harbaugh. He isn’t. He’s very Harbaugh like. Difference is he has one title and he wasn’t blown out in 18 and 19.
There’s nothing exciting about Franklin or Harbaugh.