At Northwestern is now a Quadrant 3 loss

Submitted by Human Torpedo on February 23rd, 2018 at 12:59 PM

Hate to be the messenger of bad news today, but that loss to them is looking a lot worse now after they got punked by Wisconsin on Senior Night. This could be what's affecting our seeding in a negative fashion with the bracketologists. Unfortunately I don't see us getting higher than a #5 seed unless we win out probably

Comments

TrueBlue2003

February 23rd, 2018 at 4:08 PM ^

for being ahead of us, especially if we beat Maryland.  And there are some teams currently projected as 3s that are vulnerable to a drop: Clemson (which has already dropped to a 4 on bracket matrix) and Arizona which lost leading scorer Alonso Trier for the season to suspension.

There are definitely scenarios in which we get the 4 seed with a win over Maryland and loss in the BTT semis, but our opponents are trending in the wrong direction such that it is not as likely as it was a couple days ago.

J.

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^

I don't share your optimism, but I'll tip my cap to it anyway. :)

Incidentally -- and seriously, not sarcastically -- do you remember what your thoughts were this time last year?  Personally, I thought Michigan was a 7 at the end of the season and had worked their way up to the 4/5 line by winning the Big Ten Tournament.  Obviously, I was wrong then; perhaps I'm overcorrecting. :)

ijohnb

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:38 PM ^

I didn't think they were a 7 at the end of the season, but last years team was not nearly as impressive as this years team was on the season.  They were 20-11 instead of (possibly) 24-7, that is a substantial difference.  They had 8 conference losses including an absolute travesty at Illinois.  The had two Top 25 wins but no Top 10 wins and no impressive road wins.

I had Michigan at about a 9 or 10 going into the BTT.  I thought that they played so well during that tournament that they could have played themselves into a 6 but a 7 is about what I expected.  I was raging-pissed about the first round matchup though and thought we should have gotten a better draw than that.

J.

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^

Fair enough.  If you were right about last year, perhaps you're right about this year too.  I'd be tickled if you were. :)

Last year Michigan had many more good wins, especially by the end of the conference tournament, and was playing as well as anyone in the country.  They lost two games post-OSU (on 2/4); one was the game in which Minnesota somehow drew 27 personal fouls (vs. 17) and shot 41 free throws in an overtime win; the other was that.. thing.. at Northwestern.

Regardless, Go Blue. :)

A2MIKE

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:05 PM ^

in 2014, we lost to Charlotte. 

in 2013, we lost to Penn State.

The bad losses really only matter for the bubble teams.  If we win out, we will be a sweet 16 seed.  I don't think we will win out, so it's probably a moot point.

TrueBlue2003

February 23rd, 2018 at 4:20 PM ^

as we only got a 4 seed in 2013.  99% certainty that we would have had a 3 seed had we not lost that game.

And in 2015 we won the second best conference in the country (only slightly behind the big 12 and way ahead of #3) by three (!!) games but only got a 2 seed.  Possible we could have had a 1 seed if not for that Charlotte loss, although less clear that it hurt us than the PSU game in 2013.

So to say it doesn't matter is wrong.  Sure, it's not going to keep us out of the tourney, but it could cost us a seed line. Being able to say you have no bad losses in the Q3/Q4 range looks very good.

saveferris

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^

Considering 2 months ago we were a Bubble 10-11 seed that eventually climbed up to an 8-9 seed as recently as 3 weeks ago; I don't see winding up as a 5 seed to be the worse thing in the world.

Put us in as a 5 seed in the weakest bracket and I'll manage to sleep peacefully at night.

Indy Pete - Go Blue

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:08 PM ^

Wow, a whole thread started to discuss a shift of one team from 1 arbitrary quadrant to another.  We lost to a mediocre Northwestern team on the road, end the story.   We have a solid seed, and a chance to get an elite seed if win the B1G tourney - that arbitrary move of NW's RPI will mean basically: nothing.  Or we can whine and speculate how that single game and tiny RPI move is the entire basis of how bracketologists look at Michigan.  Lol @ OP

bronxblue

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:09 PM ^

So be it.  People are getting really worked up about what looks to be a 5/6 seeding at best.  All a team can do now is win the games in front of them.

karpodiem

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:11 PM ^

We’re going to get the 4 spot with a win over the turtles and Penn State wins against the corn children.

We beat state on Saturday night in Madison square garden and then win our second BTT in a row by topping Purdue.

We get the 4 spot and play at LCA.

J.

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^

Michigan needs to be a lot better than a 4 seed to play in Detroit, unless the other nearby teams all go into the toilet -- Xavier, Cincinnati, Michigan State, Ohio State, and Purdue.  They'd have to pass four of those five on the S curve to have a chance.  It's a nice thought, but it's extremely unlikely.

A2MIKE

February 23rd, 2018 at 2:26 PM ^

The key number is 500 miles.  Don't remember the exact rule and reasoning, but at 500 miles the NCAA has to reimburse the school's travel expenses, or something of that nature.

Cincinatti is as close to Pittsburgh as they are to Detroit.  The difference is 10 miles. Meaning, Xavier and Cincinnati will both likely end up in Pittsburgh. 

Duke and Virginia will be in Charlotte. 

Purdue will likely be in Nashville, as Nashville is nearly the same distance for them as Detroit. 

Ohio State could be in either Pittsburgh or Detroit.  I don't think Michigan is far behind Ohio State on the S curve.  Very similar profiles, split the head to head.  The team that makes the furthest in the BTT likely has the upper hand. If it's Ohio State, they likely get sent to Pittsburgh and Xavier or Cinci get sent to Detroit.  Otherwise, I could see Michigan ending up in Detroit.  They were a 4 seed in 2013 and ended up in Detroit.

IMO, there is a decent chance that Michigan ends up in Pittsburgh as a 6 seed playing either Cincinnati or Xavier.

J.

February 23rd, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^

Michigan made it to Detroit as a 4 seed in 2013 because there was also a Dayton regional, which is where Indiana and Ohio State went.  Nashville is an extra 50 miles from Purdue as opposed to Detroit; I think that'll be a big enough difference to swing the needle.  You may be right on the Cincinnati schools, but I'll believe the NCAA and the committee can use common sense when I see it. :)

Having said that, Columbus is apparently 25 miles closer to Pittsburgh than to Detroit, which surprised me.  So maybe OSU will be sent east after all.  I still think they'd have to pass Purdue though.

TrueBlue2003

February 23rd, 2018 at 9:04 PM ^

to swing the needle for Purdue when you're talking about the difference between 275 and 325 miles. 

The bigger issue is that both Cincinatti schools can't go to Pittsburgh because Villanova is locked in there.  So only one will end up in Pittsburgh.

IF Michigan got to a 4 seed, that'd leave Purdue, MSU, Auburn, let's say Cincinnati for the sake of argument, Michigan and maybe Tennessee as the teams vying for the Detroit and Nashville spots.

Not to mention that UNC would need a place to go assuming UVA and Duke end up in Charlotte.

With Arizona and Gonzaga being the only teams west of Kansas that are even in contention for top 4 seeds, and San Diego and Biose hosting, someone is going to have to get sent way out of region.

Doesn't bode well for a 4 seed Michigan but they have a chance to pass Cincinnati and/or Tennessee, even if they're all on that 4 line.  Ship them out West and keep us home!

 

ThatTCGuy

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:11 PM ^

What happened to Northwestern this year? It seemed like they were really building something there and now theyre one of the worst teams in the B1G. It's going to be really interesting next year to see if this is a one year aberation or if its Northwestern reverting to the status quo.

Anyway, I don't think the NU loss matters that much. We were a 5 seed either way. I think the only chance we have at a higher seed is to win the B1G Tournament.

StephenRKass

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:11 PM ^

It really doesn't matter. I think Michigan will win at Maryland (quadrant 1 win.) In the tourney, we win two if we are seeded 5th, and win one if we are seeded 4th. If Bridges is suspended, that would greatly increase our chances of winning three (semifinal game), and also give us a great chance to win the championship game vs. Purdue.

Short of a total collapse, I see Michigan with a 5 or 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. With total victory (Big 10 Tournament Champion,) we could possibly get as high as a 4 seed.

jsquigg

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^

It could be worse.  U of M could be embroiled in multiple sexual abuse scandals as well as be implicated in a federal probe into giving players impermissable benefits.

enlightenedbum

February 23rd, 2018 at 1:18 PM ^

We have been consistently moving up the bracket matrix for the last two weeks.  Average seed is now 6.3.  It was close to 10 in early February.  Things are fine.  Win tomorrow and we might move up to a 5, depending on other results.  4 definitely seems like the highest and would require defending our title.  Which is definitely possible.  More possible if the NCAA moves quickly and rules Bridges/Jackson ineligible.