Nico Collins: will he get more catches next season? Numbers from this season.

Submitted by Ezekiels Creatures on January 10th, 2020 at 12:44 AM

Here's Nico Collins' numbers from this season:

One less reception than in 2018, but other numbers were up slightly.

 

Here's how he did this season compared to WRs across the nation. Teams of note are highlighted:

 

Nico Collins is ranked at #104 in the nation.

 

Teams of note:

Alabama: has 3 WRs ranked higher than Nico Collins

Hawaii: I have Hawaii as a team of note because they have 4 WRs ranked higher than Nico Collins, and not only higher, but all 4 are in the top 50

LSU: has 2, both are ranked very high, #2, and #3

USC: has 3, the 'Air Raid' coach at USC, Graham Harrell, is from the Mike Leach coaching tree, he also played QB for him at Texas Tech, he's the QB that threw the famous pass to Michael Crabtree to beat Texas

Washington St: has 3, Mike Leach coach

 

Here's BIG10 teams that have WRs ranked higher than Nico Collins:

Indiana: 1, at #40

Michigan St: 1, at #48

Minnesota: 2, at #7, and #14

Nebraska: 1, at #60

Ohio St: 1, at #71

Penn St: 1, at #55

Purdue: 2, at #34, and #74

Wisconsin: 1, at #59

As an honorable mention, Central Michigan, with Jim McElwain, has 2 WRs ranked higher, at #61, and #80

 

Nico Collins has some of the best hands I've ever seen. I'm hoping gets more targets this upcoming season. He certainly is able to catch them.

 

 

JonnyHintz

January 10th, 2020 at 8:19 AM ^

It’s not that surprising. Field played 1 more game and only had about 200 more passing yards than Shea. OSU didn’t pass the ball much in the second half of most of their games. A ton of blowouts. OSU also has the same problem (luxury) that we did. Both teams spread the ball around to quite a few players in the passing game and didn’t pass the ball a ton. 
 

Michigan’s pace hurt them a bit too. Michigan was average in plays per game (61st nationally) and only threw the ball 45% of the time (up from 38% last season)

Catchafire

January 10th, 2020 at 6:39 AM ^

Unless prolific, WRs shouldn't leave for the NFL as juniors to begin with. DPJ was decent, not prolific.  Yes all WRs would have been good with better QB play, but I can't blame Shea too much after multiple offenses at UM.

This coming season, I expect the offense to be slightly improved but no one individual lighting it up.  The RB group should be better, but all that in dependent on the online and how quick McCaffrey can get the ball out.

Joe Milton better be ready too.

scfanblue

January 10th, 2020 at 6:53 AM ^

With the current culture around the football program and the fact that Don Brown is coming back, Michigan will have a 8-5 season. Gattis will spend his last season in AA next year. 

1VaBlue1

January 10th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^

But you don't provide 'truth', you only throw shade because you dislike Don Brown.  He's made an SP+ top 10 defense all 4 years here.  You complain about giving up big points to OSU, but fail to mention that every defense gives up big points to prolific offenses all over the country on every weekend.  It is the way of the game - offense is ahead of defense by scheme and by rule.

Had Michigan cashed in on some TD's against OSU, after moving the ball up and down the field, that would've been a very different game.  Same against Bama.  The offense has to do more than put up 20 points, or those extra points are going to go against the defense.  We have first hand knowledge with that.  

Of course, its easier for you to blame everything on one person.  The lazy take is always best for some people, right?

Teeba

January 10th, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^

So in addition to the ground game earning about 1 YPC less and Shea’s completion percentage dropping 8 points, this week I learned that Tru had a better rushing year under Pep and Pep found a way to get a younger Nico one more reception. But St. Gattis uber alles because we get to the line sooner and occasionally run an RPO. Gotcha.

MJ14

January 10th, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^

Nico was targeted 54 as a sophomore and hauled in 38 passes. He was targeted 68 times this year and brought in 37 passes. Gattis got Nico 14 more chances this season alone and there were at least 5 times the dude was crazy open this year and didn’t get a pass thrown his way. Some of those targets he drew a pass interference call, which is a win. You can clearly watch the offense and see that it’s moving in the right direction. I’m gonna say we see Nico get about 60 receptions next year around 17 YPC. That would put him just over 1000 yards and probably 10-12 touchdowns. Hamilton has never had a receiver go over 900 yards in a season as a college coordinator. 

Teeba

January 10th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^

At Columbus in 2018, the team scored 39 points. At home in 2019, the team scored 27 points. This “we were getting better at the end of the year” canard rings hollow to someone who relies on facts and data. I’ll judge next season after all the data is in.

So Pep can’t get a WR over 900 yards, but Gattis is a genius because our top guy had 758 yards. Wow, what a comeback. I’m shaking.

Gattis got him 14 more targets and they produced one fewer completion and that’s supposed to be good?!?

Logan88

January 10th, 2020 at 7:00 AM ^

Are these kind of numbers common?

It feels like these receiving numbers are extremely high. The idea of having 42 WR with over 1000 receiving yards in a season seems crazy. I know that offenses have tended to move to more passing in this era so I would be interested to know what this chart would have looked like 10, 20 and 30 years ago.

pescadero

January 10th, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^

They aren't extremely high. The number has largely ranged from about 30-40 per season for quite a while.

Receivers over 1000 yards last 15 years -

2019: 42
2018: 39
2017: 30
2016: 37
2015: 38
2014: 37
2013: 44
2012: 36
2011: 40
2010: 32
2009: 30
2008: 33
2007: 39
2006: 22
2005: 29
 

1VaBlue1

January 10th, 2020 at 7:00 AM ^

I'm all for Collins getting about 70 more receptions next year - if they come in the natural flow of the game.  But I just don't see that happening.  I mean, Ronnie Bell, who was clearly the 'go-to' guy for Shea this year, is on the list at #95 (48 rec, 758 yds) - not much higher.  The simple fact is that Michigan's offense was a lot more balanced across run/pass than most teams, and they spread the ball around between 7-9 players far more than most teams.  I don't see that as a bad thing.

There were also some extenuating circumstances this year.  The Gattisffence was brand new, and he suffered from some early crap play.  The first few games were a clinic in not knowing what to do or who you are, and a lot of opportunities were missed (Army - say no more, right?).  I think some games featured more running because the pass game just wasn't learned well enough from Spring practice through the season.  It caught on later and looked far better - the offense was continuing to improve through the bowl game - even if the point totals don't reflect it.  Finishing drives with TD's is very different from moving the ball up and down the field.  This team needs to learn how to finish a drive.

Another issue was QB play.  Shea has some gaudy numbers in the record books, and he got the hang of it from PSU on, but...  He was never good with deep balls or throwing guys open.  He rarely led receivers or hit them in stride.  He just plain didn't throw a lot of open stuff (especially across the middle against zone).  And he rarely kept on a ZR play, open or not.  But he was very good at spreading the ball around.

I'm hoping that we see DCaff (or Milton, if you desire - not my debate) be an improvement over Shea next year.  This means that he not only finds the open guy, but hits him on the numbers without need for acrobatics.  That alone would drastically improve the WR numbers.  I do think the Gattisffence can be more a more dynamic offense than we've seen at Michigan in 20 years, but QB play needs to improve.

JonathanE

January 10th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^

I was going to comment on what the above posted. Shea wasn't good with the deep ball so next season will the QB throw more and deeper? If they do, Collins could have a big year. If Michigan runs more, RPO's and bubble screens, Collins will probably be right around to a bit lower than he was this year. 

maize-blue

January 10th, 2020 at 7:15 AM ^

I could see him getting more but I think they'll spread the ball around again so I don't think he'll end up with huge numbers.

OT: saw some smoke regarding Partridge replacements and it sounds like Clinksdale won't be the guy. That sucks because he is a very good recruiter and a force within the state.

Navy Wolverine

January 10th, 2020 at 7:35 AM ^

Michigan needs more explosive plays when they face tough opponents. This was a contributing factor in each of their 4 losses. Considering that Nico averages an explosive play every time he catches the ball it would benefit Michigan to try to get him the ball more.

TK

January 10th, 2020 at 8:54 AM ^

I’m not sure. Can you give me a spreadsheet of every Defensive Tackles weight in the country? That will help me form an answer. 

redjugador24

January 10th, 2020 at 9:05 AM ^

3 catches a game is not nearly enough, need to get the ball in his hands more.  Hopefully we can complete more long balls next year, it was brutal watching the overthrows the last 2 games.  

Jimmyisgod

January 10th, 2020 at 9:14 AM ^

With a brand new O Line and a new QB, I don't expect the deep route to be there as often.  He'll get more balls thrown his way because of Black and DPJ leaving, but he's going to have to run those quicker routes.

1VaBlue1

January 10th, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^

In Warinner we trust!

Yeah, the OL is losing a lot of experience, but I think the replacements will be fine.  We finally have depth there, that has been practicing for 1-2 years before seeing the field.  This isn't like three years ago, when we moved yet another guard out to LT and hoped for the best, while the RT was manned by a guard that had no business being on the field (let alone as a tackle) and the center couldn't spell 'A Gap'.  The new guys will all have experience being coached by Warinner at their positions, and with Gattis' offense.  It will probably take them a few games to jell, but they won't be a bad unit...

imafreak1

January 10th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^

Just from a numbers stand point, this is unlikely. Maybe 5 rookie WR a year make it into the 50s for receptions and it drops off quickly after that. WR is one of the positions that it takes rookies a while to dent the stat sheet. I doubt DPJ is even in the top 10 on WR draft lists.

I think DPJ made the correct decision coming out because NFL teams will focus on his measurables and combine numbers more. Another season of not accomplishing much on the field will only make that harder. 

I think that in college football, you win by riding your best players in the big games. Which is why even MSU has a WR with more receptions than Michigan. Dantonio fed that guy and called plays to get him the ball. Alabama certainly did that with Jeudy in the bowl. Carr was really good at doing that. I think Hamilton focused too much on taking what the defense gave and spreading the ball around which is how Michigan ended up with the 3rd TE dropping passes on critical third downs.

The jury is still out on Gattis because 2019 was such a work in progress. Will he let the defense dictate where the ball goes or will he ride his best players? It certainly looks like Michigan has some WR that deserve a chance to get fed the ball.

butuka21

January 10th, 2020 at 9:46 AM ^

He will and better get more targets that’s for sure.  The man is a beast and has a phenomenal catching radius just throw the ball to him and you have a shot at a big play or PI I’m surprised they do not do more back shoulder fades to him. I think he will be open more too as with mccaffrey he can run and put running game should improve and be a little more respected which opens up more for everyone else 

Don

January 10th, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^

The completion % of Michigan's QBs in 2019—obviously virtually all Patterson—was 55.6.

Only four BIG teams had a lower completion %: Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland, and NW.

If Michigan is going to take good advantage of the receivers they've got coming back, this number has to be better.