Nico Collins: will he get more catches next season? Numbers from this season.
Here's Nico Collins' numbers from this season:
One less reception than in 2018, but other numbers were up slightly.
Here's how he did this season compared to WRs across the nation. Teams of note are highlighted:
Nico Collins is ranked at #104 in the nation.
Teams of note:
Alabama: has 3 WRs ranked higher than Nico Collins
Hawaii: I have Hawaii as a team of note because they have 4 WRs ranked higher than Nico Collins, and not only higher, but all 4 are in the top 50
LSU: has 2, both are ranked very high, #2, and #3
USC: has 3, the 'Air Raid' coach at USC, Graham Harrell, is from the Mike Leach coaching tree, he also played QB for him at Texas Tech, he's the QB that threw the famous pass to Michael Crabtree to beat Texas
Washington St: has 3, Mike Leach coach
Here's BIG10 teams that have WRs ranked higher than Nico Collins:
Indiana: 1, at #40
Michigan St: 1, at #48
Minnesota: 2, at #7, and #14
Nebraska: 1, at #60
Ohio St: 1, at #71
Penn St: 1, at #55
Purdue: 2, at #34, and #74
Wisconsin: 1, at #59
As an honorable mention, Central Michigan, with Jim McElwain, has 2 WRs ranked higher, at #61, and #80
Nico Collins has some of the best hands I've ever seen. I'm hoping gets more targets this upcoming season. He certainly is able to catch them.
January 10th, 2020 at 2:09 AM ^
Nico Collins would make for a great hand model someday.
January 10th, 2020 at 8:22 AM ^
He’s no Ray McKigney!
January 10th, 2020 at 9:18 AM ^
or JP Prewitt
January 10th, 2020 at 9:21 AM ^
Will he be as good as George Costanza?
January 10th, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
Ohhh, those are nice....smooth, creamy, delicate....yet....masculine
January 10th, 2020 at 10:08 AM ^
I heard he will wear oven mitts instead of WR gloves this year.
January 10th, 2020 at 2:15 AM ^
OSU didn't have a thousand yard receiver? That's kinda crazy considering fields' numbers
January 10th, 2020 at 8:19 AM ^
It’s not that surprising. Field played 1 more game and only had about 200 more passing yards than Shea. OSU didn’t pass the ball much in the second half of most of their games. A ton of blowouts. OSU also has the same problem (luxury) that we did. Both teams spread the ball around to quite a few players in the passing game and didn’t pass the ball a ton.
Michigan’s pace hurt them a bit too. Michigan was average in plays per game (61st nationally) and only threw the ball 45% of the time (up from 38% last season)
January 10th, 2020 at 9:33 AM ^
They ran a lot too. Dobbins had 2000.
January 10th, 2020 at 3:01 AM ^
I'm pro Harbaugh and Gattis, but if Nico doesn't get a lot more targets in another 9-4 type season next year I'm out.
January 10th, 2020 at 8:55 AM ^
That’s all it would take?
January 10th, 2020 at 6:08 AM ^
Someone’s proud of the charts they learned how to make.
Let’s put these up on the mgofridge and admire them!
January 10th, 2020 at 10:36 AM ^
the charts are useless if you’re not going to include targets.
January 10th, 2020 at 6:39 AM ^
Unless prolific, WRs shouldn't leave for the NFL as juniors to begin with. DPJ was decent, not prolific. Yes all WRs would have been good with better QB play, but I can't blame Shea too much after multiple offenses at UM.
This coming season, I expect the offense to be slightly improved but no one individual lighting it up. The RB group should be better, but all that in dependent on the online and how quick McCaffrey can get the ball out.
Joe Milton better be ready too.
January 10th, 2020 at 10:55 AM ^
I'll be satisfied with whomever wins. And McCaffrey might be the better 'Gattis' type QB. But man... I have dreams of Milton launching 70 yard bombs to Collins.
January 10th, 2020 at 6:53 AM ^
With the current culture around the football program and the fact that Don Brown is coming back, Michigan will have a 8-5 season. Gattis will spend his last season in AA next year.
January 10th, 2020 at 8:31 AM ^
Why are you the way you are? Are you this negative about everything, or just Michigan sports?
Show me on the doll where the wolverine touched you.
January 10th, 2020 at 10:00 AM ^
You guys can’t stand the truth. You want fluff pieces.
January 10th, 2020 at 10:38 AM ^
Why don’t you tell us what we can actually do other than try to be optimistic? You aren’t accomplishing anything more by being miserable.
January 10th, 2020 at 10:44 PM ^
Why does facing the truth mean you're miserable?
January 10th, 2020 at 10:48 AM ^
says the guy who actually thinks Michigan will be 8-5 next year
January 10th, 2020 at 10:56 AM ^
LOL you don't want truth either. You want an article written by Drew Sharpe and edited by eeyore.
January 10th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
But you don't provide 'truth', you only throw shade because you dislike Don Brown. He's made an SP+ top 10 defense all 4 years here. You complain about giving up big points to OSU, but fail to mention that every defense gives up big points to prolific offenses all over the country on every weekend. It is the way of the game - offense is ahead of defense by scheme and by rule.
Had Michigan cashed in on some TD's against OSU, after moving the ball up and down the field, that would've been a very different game. Same against Bama. The offense has to do more than put up 20 points, or those extra points are going to go against the defense. We have first hand knowledge with that.
Of course, its easier for you to blame everything on one person. The lazy take is always best for some people, right?
January 10th, 2020 at 10:00 AM ^
I don't know if it's negative to want Josh Gattis replaced. I'd take Graham Harrell in a second--and he's willing to move. Or maybe there's another Joe Brady in the ranks of the pros somewhere.
January 10th, 2020 at 10:26 AM ^
So in addition to the ground game earning about 1 YPC less and Shea’s completion percentage dropping 8 points, this week I learned that Tru had a better rushing year under Pep and Pep found a way to get a younger Nico one more reception. But St. Gattis uber alles because we get to the line sooner and occasionally run an RPO. Gotcha.
January 10th, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
Nico was targeted 54 as a sophomore and hauled in 38 passes. He was targeted 68 times this year and brought in 37 passes. Gattis got Nico 14 more chances this season alone and there were at least 5 times the dude was crazy open this year and didn’t get a pass thrown his way. Some of those targets he drew a pass interference call, which is a win. You can clearly watch the offense and see that it’s moving in the right direction. I’m gonna say we see Nico get about 60 receptions next year around 17 YPC. That would put him just over 1000 yards and probably 10-12 touchdowns. Hamilton has never had a receiver go over 900 yards in a season as a college coordinator.
January 10th, 2020 at 12:44 PM ^
At Columbus in 2018, the team scored 39 points. At home in 2019, the team scored 27 points. This “we were getting better at the end of the year” canard rings hollow to someone who relies on facts and data. I’ll judge next season after all the data is in.
So Pep can’t get a WR over 900 yards, but Gattis is a genius because our top guy had 758 yards. Wow, what a comeback. I’m shaking.
Gattis got him 14 more targets and they produced one fewer completion and that’s supposed to be good?!?
January 10th, 2020 at 10:49 PM ^
It's hard to believe he was "targeted" 14 more times than last year. Maybe 14 more passes were thrown in his direction. But that doesn't mean he was the primary receiver on those plays.
January 10th, 2020 at 10:46 PM ^
Nico was targeted 54 as a sophomore and hauled in 38 passes. He was targeted 68 times this year and brought in 37 passes.
What is the link to this information?
January 10th, 2020 at 10:57 AM ^
Show me on the doll where the wolverine touched you.
Damn you Hatter I almost pushed hot coffee through my nose laughing.
January 10th, 2020 at 7:00 AM ^
Are these kind of numbers common?
It feels like these receiving numbers are extremely high. The idea of having 42 WR with over 1000 receiving yards in a season seems crazy. I know that offenses have tended to move to more passing in this era so I would be interested to know what this chart would have looked like 10, 20 and 30 years ago.
January 10th, 2020 at 2:06 PM ^
They aren't extremely high. The number has largely ranged from about 30-40 per season for quite a while.
Receivers over 1000 yards last 15 years -
2019: 42
2018: 39
2017: 30
2016: 37
2015: 38
2014: 37
2013: 44
2012: 36
2011: 40
2010: 32
2009: 30
2008: 33
2007: 39
2006: 22
2005: 29
January 10th, 2020 at 7:00 AM ^
I'm all for Collins getting about 70 more receptions next year - if they come in the natural flow of the game. But I just don't see that happening. I mean, Ronnie Bell, who was clearly the 'go-to' guy for Shea this year, is on the list at #95 (48 rec, 758 yds) - not much higher. The simple fact is that Michigan's offense was a lot more balanced across run/pass than most teams, and they spread the ball around between 7-9 players far more than most teams. I don't see that as a bad thing.
There were also some extenuating circumstances this year. The Gattisffence was brand new, and he suffered from some early crap play. The first few games were a clinic in not knowing what to do or who you are, and a lot of opportunities were missed (Army - say no more, right?). I think some games featured more running because the pass game just wasn't learned well enough from Spring practice through the season. It caught on later and looked far better - the offense was continuing to improve through the bowl game - even if the point totals don't reflect it. Finishing drives with TD's is very different from moving the ball up and down the field. This team needs to learn how to finish a drive.
Another issue was QB play. Shea has some gaudy numbers in the record books, and he got the hang of it from PSU on, but... He was never good with deep balls or throwing guys open. He rarely led receivers or hit them in stride. He just plain didn't throw a lot of open stuff (especially across the middle against zone). And he rarely kept on a ZR play, open or not. But he was very good at spreading the ball around.
I'm hoping that we see DCaff (or Milton, if you desire - not my debate) be an improvement over Shea next year. This means that he not only finds the open guy, but hits him on the numbers without need for acrobatics. That alone would drastically improve the WR numbers. I do think the Gattisffence can be more a more dynamic offense than we've seen at Michigan in 20 years, but QB play needs to improve.
January 10th, 2020 at 10:47 AM ^
I was going to comment on what the above posted. Shea wasn't good with the deep ball so next season will the QB throw more and deeper? If they do, Collins could have a big year. If Michigan runs more, RPO's and bubble screens, Collins will probably be right around to a bit lower than he was this year.
January 11th, 2020 at 8:56 AM ^
if they come in the natural flow of the game.
There has been no flow in Michigan offense since 2016. I'm not expecting any next season either.
January 10th, 2020 at 7:15 AM ^
I could see him getting more but I think they'll spread the ball around again so I don't think he'll end up with huge numbers.
OT: saw some smoke regarding Partridge replacements and it sounds like Clinksdale won't be the guy. That sucks because he is a very good recruiter and a force within the state.
January 10th, 2020 at 7:35 AM ^
Michigan needs more explosive plays when they face tough opponents. This was a contributing factor in each of their 4 losses. Considering that Nico averages an explosive play every time he catches the ball it would benefit Michigan to try to get him the ball more.
January 10th, 2020 at 7:44 AM ^
The biggest factor in hitting explosive plays is having a QB that can hit a receiver downfield (and across the middle) in stride. Michigan hasn't had one of those since late season Rudock. (Speight wasn't all that good with it, either...).
January 10th, 2020 at 8:54 AM ^
I’m not sure. Can you give me a spreadsheet of every Defensive Tackles weight in the country? That will help me form an answer.
January 10th, 2020 at 9:14 AM ^
Personally, I won't be convinced until there are a bunch of GIFs of Jim Harbaugh on the sideline. Ooh and red boxes over screenshots of ESPN.com. That's the stuff.
January 10th, 2020 at 9:05 AM ^
3 catches a game is not nearly enough, need to get the ball in his hands more. Hopefully we can complete more long balls next year, it was brutal watching the overthrows the last 2 games.
January 10th, 2020 at 9:14 AM ^
With a brand new O Line and a new QB, I don't expect the deep route to be there as often. He'll get more balls thrown his way because of Black and DPJ leaving, but he's going to have to run those quicker routes.
January 10th, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^
In Warinner we trust!
Yeah, the OL is losing a lot of experience, but I think the replacements will be fine. We finally have depth there, that has been practicing for 1-2 years before seeing the field. This isn't like three years ago, when we moved yet another guard out to LT and hoped for the best, while the RT was manned by a guard that had no business being on the field (let alone as a tackle) and the center couldn't spell 'A Gap'. The new guys will all have experience being coached by Warinner at their positions, and with Gattis' offense. It will probably take them a few games to jell, but they won't be a bad unit...
January 10th, 2020 at 9:23 AM ^
DPJ will get more catches next year than he did this year.
January 10th, 2020 at 11:19 AM ^
Just from a numbers stand point, this is unlikely. Maybe 5 rookie WR a year make it into the 50s for receptions and it drops off quickly after that. WR is one of the positions that it takes rookies a while to dent the stat sheet. I doubt DPJ is even in the top 10 on WR draft lists.
I think DPJ made the correct decision coming out because NFL teams will focus on his measurables and combine numbers more. Another season of not accomplishing much on the field will only make that harder.
I think that in college football, you win by riding your best players in the big games. Which is why even MSU has a WR with more receptions than Michigan. Dantonio fed that guy and called plays to get him the ball. Alabama certainly did that with Jeudy in the bowl. Carr was really good at doing that. I think Hamilton focused too much on taking what the defense gave and spreading the ball around which is how Michigan ended up with the 3rd TE dropping passes on critical third downs.
The jury is still out on Gattis because 2019 was such a work in progress. Will he let the defense dictate where the ball goes or will he ride his best players? It certainly looks like Michigan has some WR that deserve a chance to get fed the ball.
January 10th, 2020 at 9:44 AM ^
The sparty being higher with their janky ass offense makes me sad.
January 10th, 2020 at 10:16 AM ^
That’s cuz they have but one viable target. If Nico was on a team filled with a pack of WR jibronnis he would have way more cuz he’d be the only viable target. We had Bell, DPJ, Black, Sainristil, not to mention the TEs
January 10th, 2020 at 12:20 PM ^
Obviously there is something to what you are saying but Alabama was loaded at WR and they still managed to put up numbers and spread the ball around.
January 10th, 2020 at 9:46 AM ^
He will and better get more targets that’s for sure. The man is a beast and has a phenomenal catching radius just throw the ball to him and you have a shot at a big play or PI I’m surprised they do not do more back shoulder fades to him. I think he will be open more too as with mccaffrey he can run and put running game should improve and be a little more respected which opens up more for everyone else
January 10th, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^
The completion % of Michigan's QBs in 2019—obviously virtually all Patterson—was 55.6.
Only four BIG teams had a lower completion %: Illinois, Rutgers, Maryland, and NW.
If Michigan is going to take good advantage of the receivers they've got coming back, this number has to be better.