Hunter Dickinson and Free Throws
So I’m dumb about basketball and also most other stuff. However, Hunter Dickinson seems to be really good from the post and the stripe. He also seams to have the body of a 23 year old big and be Teske-as-a-junior-but-better right now. I know it is *good* that he is large and can score and pick up the three point play after a foul, also he hasn’t yet shown a lot from 3 as of yet. I’m wondering what people think his ceiling is after seeing his body, size and potential so far.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:46 PM ^
He could be great with his size and wingspan -- but he needs to learn the deep ball for today's nba.
December 10th, 2020 at 2:11 AM ^
This post is going to age like milk. Hunter Dickinson shot 40% from 3-point range in high school.
December 10th, 2020 at 10:03 AM ^
Except the 3 point arc is further away in college than in high school, and even further away in the NBA, so it's not a given that his 40% shooting will carry over in college. He'll still need to keep putting in work.
December 10th, 2020 at 10:37 PM ^
The difference between the 3-point line and NBA 3-point line is only 10.25”. You all better hope that his 3-pointers don’t fall, or he’s clearly a one-and-done lottery pick. They probably will fall though because he’s a good shooter.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:46 PM ^
I went all gobber about his game but I also wanted to comment about how good HD is from the FT line. Also, I don’t care about the AssociatIon, just college
December 9th, 2020 at 8:16 PM ^
His ceiling is first team All-American before he is done in college. It is rate for a player his height to have that type of body control with great hands, excellent vision and passing, and ability to finish many different ways with both hands. He is unlikely to be in Ann Arbor for more than 2 years / even with the evolution of the nba. 7’1” guys with this type of skill just don’t grow on trees. He is incredible. Let’s enjoy every game we have him!
December 9th, 2020 at 8:44 PM ^
He is unlikely to be in Ann Arbor for more than 2 years / even with the evolution of the nba
Luka Garza tends to think otherwise...
But actually though, NBA teams literally don't care about bigs like Dickinson and Garza. Garza is probably going to win PoY, is super fundamentally sound, can score from 3 levels, and likely is only a late first rounder at best. Dickinson will be here more than 2 years and I would be shocked if that doesn't happen
December 9th, 2020 at 8:53 PM ^
I hope to be wrong / but we will see. Neither of us has the hustle or care to keep this prediction handy, but I respectfully and confidently disagree. Dickinson came in at age 20 and has 2 1/2 inches on Garza. Besides, Garza voluntarily returned this year when he could have been drafted. Garza was nothing close to this as a freshman - or a sophomore. Also, Garza is 21 years old, now, as a senior.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:24 PM ^
How many teams have you witnessed in the NBA with one true center type?
December 9th, 2020 at 9:31 PM ^
Since I started following the nba, I have witnessed somewhere in the low hundreds. if you are referring to right now, Lopez, Stephen Adams, Drummond, Adebayo, Gasol, and Chandler off the top of my head. If you don’t see an nba future for Dickinson, no problem - I respectfully and strongly disagree.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:15 PM ^
Not sure how a question became so controversial. I love Hunter, he is the main reason we beat an 0-4 team the other night in overtime. He is a very skilled young big man. I’m sure that there is a place in the league for him eventually. I’m just not sure I believe that it’ll be sooner than after at least his Junior campaign. Go Hunter, and as always, “GO BLUE!”
December 9th, 2020 at 9:28 PM ^
Different players. Garza is much shorter and won't get his stuff off regularly in the league. He'll be lucky to get drafted earlier than the middle of the second round.
December 10th, 2020 at 7:21 AM ^
I agree w you! His I.Q. Is good, and passing skills are great. He’s freaking 7”1. Great footwork and can use both hands. His 3ball will come, just takes time in college compared to high school. Game is more physical and faster!
December 9th, 2020 at 7:47 PM ^
Marc Gasol
December 9th, 2020 at 7:51 PM ^
How is HD on defense? Gasol won DMVP in the league
December 9th, 2020 at 10:05 PM ^
Promising so far, albeit against non-elite competition.
One thing I have noticed is the different behavior that opposing players have driving while HD is in vs. when Austin Davis is in. Opposing players seem to be discouraged from going up against him. While this is not some deep technical observation, I do believe that this is a very promising sign r.e. his defensive capabilities and how the opposition perceives him.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:52 PM ^
Hunter D is 20 years old. He isn’t a typical freshman
December 9th, 2020 at 7:54 PM ^
"He's like Shaq, but can shoot free throws." - Fred Jackson, probably.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:57 PM ^
Not hyperbolic enough. "He's reminds me of a stronger, better rebounding Shaq who makes his free throws."
December 9th, 2020 at 8:38 PM ^
He's faster too!
December 9th, 2020 at 7:57 PM ^
I think he will be a solid college player. At times he looks a little stiff, but I love having a post player that stays in the post.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:58 PM ^
His ceiling for this year is probably what he's shown during these MAC games. He'll hit some tough sledding against some B1G bigs. I'd expect some foul trouble games as well. He's good though, about as good as you can expect from a freshman non-stretch 5 who isn't an Oden/Okafor/Ayton level prospect.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:06 PM ^
I agree. B10 is too strong and deep. He'll see foul trouble, which is why the Davis injury makes me nervous. Davis gets a lot of shit, but IMO he's above B10 level as a #2 C and can be relied on for a decent-very good 15 mins/game. That leaves 25mpg for HD1 which I think isn't too far from his ceiling this year. There will be some struggles against Garza, et. al., and a few 12-15min-played games due to foul trouble.
IMO, he's a 3-4 year player b/c he's not a stretch big (can't really switch on D), hasn't shown his 3 ability (but has some ability there, just hasn't needed to use it), isn't an above the rim/athlete/floor running guy for the NBA. I could see him get a late 1st-2nd round grade in a couple years after JR year if he shows some 3pt ability and shows he can produce in the B10 the way he has in the 1st 5 games here. Could be a bench C in the league, but not much more. I'm no expert in the NBA tho.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:59 PM ^
HD is a perfect player in college, but IMO has a limited NBA ceiling.
NBA has guys like AD who are 7', absurdly athletic and can fill it from outside.
Dickenson has fantastic fundamentals and court sense. He's not particularly athletic and doesn't seem to have any outside shot at all.
Not that long ago he'd have a bright NBA future; now I'd guess he'll be nothing more than a backup - but hell, Juwan made $100M with a similar skill set.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:06 PM ^
Oh he can shoot you will see
December 9th, 2020 at 8:15 PM ^
You do realize AD is 6'10, is mostly a PF who moonlights at C, and didn't develop a 3 ball till quite a few years in the league. Not until his twilight years in NO. That would have put him ~25-26. I agree, Hunter will need one if he wants to become the prototype stretch 5 star but he has plenty of time to get ahead and develop it. I'm pretty sure coach Howard is going to have this under control. If not, he can still be a great bench center. He's 7'1. That size doesn't exactly come along every day and he seems to possess the grit which is intangible for his position not even mentioning his agility and footwork is already ahead of most college centers.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:51 PM ^
You're correct - AD isn't quite 7', but he's absolutely huge, and athletically off the charts. It was unfair to even compare HD to him; I was just referring to the type of crazy athleticism he'll be facing in the NBA.
AD hasn't always been able to shoot 3's, but he's had a strong mid-range game (at least since he's been in the NBA). And frankly, slightly smaller, athletic guys like AD and Bam are exactly the obstacles he'll face to thrive in the modern NBA.
You're absolutely right, Dickenson has time to develop a shot, and maybe he'll surprise me and progress athletically. He just looks a bit stiff and mechanical in his movement to me.
Who knows? Maybe he can develop into a Jokic-type. He's certainly got passing chops. I'll be cheering for him, that's for sure!
December 9th, 2020 at 8:58 PM ^
Great thought with the Jokic comp. Again, way too early to make any assessments but IMO, that is the absolute ceiling for a guy like Dickinson. He simply doesn’t possess the athleticism that most NBA stretch 5s have.
Let’s all just enjoy him for as long as we have him, which is unlikely to be more than 2 years.
December 9th, 2020 at 11:11 PM ^
Can't compare him to Jokic. He was an unreal passer at 19 and already a very good shooter. I expect Hunter to develop his jumper but don't expect him to turn into a top 5 passer in the world. But certainly an above average passer that can a hit a few shots from the outside is a reasonable expectation.
December 10th, 2020 at 9:53 AM ^
AD wingspan: 7'6"
Dickinson wingspan: 7'2.5"
Never mind the MASSIVE difference in athleticism.
December 9th, 2020 at 7:59 PM ^
The selfish side of me doesn’t want Hunter to try out his 3 point game until this offseason and then unleash it next year when he’s a NPOY candidate
December 9th, 2020 at 8:01 PM ^
Hunter is as good as you can expect from a freshman outside of the top few one-and-done players.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:01 PM ^
I think Juwan wanted him to focus on establishing himself in the post before expanding his game to 3 pt shooting. Hunter has shown that he can do it but he hasn't looked to shoot 3s but I think the quality of opponent factored into it. Maybe we'll see it more once we get into B1G play.
December 10th, 2020 at 9:48 AM ^
I agree with this. Also, doesn’t free-thrown shooting closely correlate with 3 point shooting?
December 10th, 2020 at 5:28 PM ^
Generally yes, FT shooting % tends to correlate with 3 pt shooting %. Hunter has the potential to be a solid shooter and be a threat in pick and pop situation but they rarely run it if any at all this season. We saw it quite a few times with Z and Teske and I'm sure that Juwan will have it in his backpocket as we progress into conference play
December 9th, 2020 at 8:01 PM ^
Hope the ceiling looks like.... Hunter Dickinson, Big Ten Champion / National Champion.
Go Blue.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:04 PM ^
Plenty of college potential. Let’s see how he fares against the likes of Cockburn and Garza before making any assessments. There’s not much to pick on so far. But it’s hard to tell much because he hasn’t played anybody who can stop him. He’s doing what he’s supposed to do as an older, borderline 5 star big man against inferior competition.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:17 PM ^
Excellent point, WM'88 - B1G is ridiculously loaded this year, and there are some quality bigs around the league.
HD made a really smart choice - JH is the perfect coach for him, and B1G is an ideal league to challenge him and grow his game.
December 9th, 2020 at 10:29 PM ^
I read an article that said that HD worked out with Garza's Dad, playing pick up games against Garza, all summer long. Garza and his Dad had nothing but glowing things to say. Even said he got the better of Garza a few games.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:06 PM ^
Regardless of his NBA potential, you've got love the kid for that ready-made college skill set in the paint. He reminds me of the centers Duke used to get before they broke the mold with Okafor.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:23 PM ^
Those Duke guys aren't a bad comp, but to me his game resembles a less athletic Tim "Big Fundamental" Duncan - or our own Juwan Howard.
Long arms, fantastic court vision, excellent footwork. Not as quick, coordinated, or nimble.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:46 PM ^
The Howard comp is dead on.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:47 PM ^
He's already a better shot blocker than Juwan as a junior though. He has impressed me with his understanding of how to use his height, even if he isn't particularly freakishly athletic. He has a very good (perhaps not elite, but very good) sense of defensive timing. And he seems to downright enjoy protecting the rim.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:04 PM ^
If he develops some range, I could see a Marc/Pau Gasol type comp as well. A little bit of each brother perhaps.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:07 PM ^
Learning how to stretch your range is not the hardest thing in the world for someone who lives in the gym.
While Teske was not lethal by ANY stretch, he clearly developed something that looked non-existent when he began at Michigan. I am not sure why people don't think Hunter can develop range.
The other thing that works big time in his favor is his form- it looks great already, and he has shown a willingness to pop on occasion from mid-range.
If he wants to make a big time living in the NBA, he'll have to learn how to shoot a bit. His goal is obviously the NBA, so I suspect he will bust his ass stretching the jumper.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:15 PM ^
A big guy that can bang his way to the basket make some clutch shots around the rim and shoots >60% free throws is a 5 star stud! The guy doesn’t need to score 3s. When he’s banging underneath the basket for easy looks and the other team doubles him it leaves our guards on the wings for wide open looks. We are a complete team outside of mayb PG. this team is gonna be tough to beat! GO BLUE!
December 9th, 2020 at 8:21 PM ^
His ceiling is first round NBA draft pick. How high he can move up in the draft and how quickly he gets there largely has to do with his ability to develop a perimeter shot and, to a lesser degree, how quickly he can add good weight to hold up on the block defensively. I only bring up the latter point because he doesn't seem to be a ball handler or shot creator at the five such as guys like AD or Porzingis (just picking random examples), lengthy guys that don't carry much weight, but have handles for the position and can shoot off the bounce.
I think he has the hands and offensive IQ you are looking for in a first rounder right now. Judging by the look of his stroke at the free throw line, he has the tools to develop his perimeter shooting. Probably just needs more repetition, but I assume looking at his touch and mechanics he will get there.
December 9th, 2020 at 9:02 PM ^
Very well said.
December 9th, 2020 at 8:28 PM ^
14.8 pts 7.4 reb per game off the bench in 22 mins per game . So smooth