Cliff notes of recent ND podcasts (Blue & Gold illustrated)
There is a tendency for us as fans to get a bit delusional this time of year, so I took advantage of a long car trip to listen to the other side’s take on the opening 2018 game. Because if anyone knows how to be delusional, it’s Notre Dame fans.
Before I start, it’s worth noting that the guys on the Blue & Gold podcast are far more grounded, intelligent, and well-spoken than the derp squads that cover say, OSU or MSU. They genuinely seemed to respect Michigan and the rivalry.
That being said, not all of their takes seemed grounded in reality. A few bullet points, ordered from reasonable to not so much:
From the ND first quarter schedule (including UM game) preview episode, aired mid-July:
- Whoever wins the Week 1 matchup should be going into Thanksgiving weekend with a chance at a CFP spot
- This will be a vintage late 80’s / early 90’s UM-ND battle, with a lower scoring game and a margin of a field goal or so
- So much of the talk has been about Michigan’s D-line, but ND’s O-line is returning a similar amount of talent and experience, especially when you compare the interiors
- The game will come down to Don Brown vs. ND OC Dave Long. They seemed to think this is a pretty even matchup.
- Shea Patterson has more interceptions than career starts, and Brandon Wimbush was 9-3 last year. Since Shea had a good WR corps and Greg Little, he had no excuse for losing to Alabama or Auburn (ignoring, you know, the other 4/5ths of the O-line, the RBs, and the high school head coach)
- Harbaugh couldn’t develop Speight or O’Korn. Stanford keeps recruiting good QBs, so David Shaw must have been the real QB whisperer
From the Saturday, August 11 practice report
- Starts with a full 15 minutes of hedging about the recent Brandon Wimbush throw-the-swing-pass-12-feet-over-the-WR’s-heads-technique video:
- Begins with the older reporter quoting AI (“this is practice”)
- Old reporter follows by comparing Wimbush to Tony Rice, a Heisman winner from the 80’s
- It is pointed out that even Tim Tebow made bad throws in practice
- Other reporter asserts that “I don’t care if Brandon shreds Michigan…I have to see Brandon come back and play against Ball State and be efficient and effective.” WELL OKAY THEN
- This portion is very much worth listening to, if you're into studying mass psychosis
- Apparently, reporters got access to a decent amount of this practice session and will get access to another. I am jealous, but accept the necessity of the submarine.
- Final, sad thought. Of the five freshman mentioned as looking particularly good, four are: Houston Griffith, Shane Simon, Jayson Ademilola, and Tommy Tremble. Never say that Harbaugh can't identify talent.
August 16th, 2018 at 1:50 AM ^
Chip Long and Don Brown a even matchup? I want what they're smoking please
August 16th, 2018 at 10:58 AM ^
Michigan's defense since Brown got to town: Top 5 in the country over the last 2 years, including last year when replacing almost every single starter. Go back to his BC days when they were top 10, playing in the ACC with significantly less talent than Clemson/FSU/Miami/even VT.
ND offense since Chip Long got to town: Between 25th and 30th (depending on your metric). He's only been at ND for 1 year so let's go back to 2016 when he was OC at Memphis (G5 team with equally or better talent than their opponents - Not BC versus FSU level disparity). They were in the 40s.
Who the hell says that is even?!
August 16th, 2018 at 3:10 AM ^
I agree with the first point. But maybe I'll go a bit further: the loser in both cases has a good shot at the CFP, given the overall strength of the schedules. But I think that a loss hurts ND more, because they don't have a league championship to lean on.
If Michigan loses this game, it will be deeply annoying, but CFP chances are still very much alive. It doesn't impact B1G championship chances, and the rest of the schedule (on paper, at this point, at least), is challenging enough to drown out an early-season loss to a (hopefully) ranked opponent. In addition, Michigan will have plenty of time to fix problems with relatively easier teams like Western Michigan, SMU, and Nebraska on the slate before the team faces a stiffer challenge in Northwestern.
Edit: This was a great post, and I appreciate your efforts to summarize info from the ND podcasts.
August 16th, 2018 at 6:10 AM ^
I have to disagree. The loser of this game does not have a good shot at the CFP. The chance of making will still be there for both teams, but you will likely need to run the table. In Michigan's case, they may be allowed one more loss, but will have to win the B!G championship.
To put it in a poker analogy: It's like the winner of this game will be holding pocket 8's, while the loser will be holding 2, 7 offsuit.
August 16th, 2018 at 6:56 AM ^
I think you're right. I was trying to say that the opportunity to go to the CFB Playoff won't diminish much, given their schedules. But you're 100% right to say that the probability of winning out is pretty low. I think your poker analogy is reinforcing this idea of probability of winning out, which I don't quite understand because I don't know the exact win-percentages for those hands, but I do appreciate as an elegant example.
August 16th, 2018 at 7:58 AM ^
7-2 offsuit is the worst starting hand in Hold'em, with a less than 32% chance of winning against one other random hand. Pocket 8s has a 69% chance of holding up against one other random hand.
August 16th, 2018 at 4:22 AM ^
Thanks for posting this. Definitely an interesting read. Maybe it's a homer take as I haven't watched much Notre Dame the last couple years, but the Chris Long vs. Don Brown being an even matchup definitely seems off base as Tyler1495 noted. There may be some validity to the comment about the interior lines being about even - that's obviously the only area of Michigan's d-line that presents even a shred of concern. But we should be able to get a ton of pressure on Wimbush with the ends and LBs. Going to be really fun to watch.
August 16th, 2018 at 8:54 AM ^
I don’t envision us getting a ton of pressure, I’d imagine ND will want to get quick passes out to avoid it similar to what other teams did to us last year. It’s the coverage on the slot that worries me most.
I May be completely off base but that’s where I feel our weakness may still be on Defense... that and time on the field. Hoping for a reliable and consistent Run game
August 16th, 2018 at 9:19 AM ^
It seems every coach on the team identified slot as a glaring weakness, so I trust one whole offseason of Don Brown restlessly tossing in bed, using his steel resolve to figure it out.
August 16th, 2018 at 6:12 AM ^
Great post. I don’t think it’ll be a Brown vs Long matchup bc, from our perspective at least, the kicker will be how our offense plays. Brown’s D will be tough no matter what but if we are able to manage the game and not turn the ball over on the other side then that should set us up for success.
August 16th, 2018 at 9:13 AM ^
I must need more coffee, because I was like..."wtf does the kicker have to do with how our offense plays?" - Great thread tho...carry on. :)
August 16th, 2018 at 6:20 AM ^
I thought ND's OL was to be a question mark this year after losing two studs to the draft? I wouldn't expect to hear that they return a similar amount of talent and experience.
Good post!
August 16th, 2018 at 6:55 AM ^
I took it to mean ND fans feel what’s coming back on their o-line is just as good as what Michigan is bringing back on their d-line. They must either love Mo Hurst or they’re delusional. I’ll lean towards the latter.
August 16th, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
They have been reloading, not rebuilding, at OL for a few years now.
2018 1st round T, 1st round G
2016 1st round T, 2nd round C
2014 1st round T 3rd round G
They did lose their OL coach who built this trend however to the NFL this season. Their C and G will probably be mid round draft picks in 2019. Most of us on the blog know they lost 2 top picks on the OL this year so an automatic assumption kicks in that their OL will be a major question mark. This is not the case. They will not be as good as last year but they will still have a good OL. Our DL is better though.
August 16th, 2018 at 6:32 AM ^
I work with some ND fans and they are seeming to be very confident they will win. Lolz in my head all day at work.
August 16th, 2018 at 6:53 AM ^
Eh, you see the same thing here. I don't think it'll be as easy either way as each side seems to think.
August 16th, 2018 at 7:09 AM ^
So, so true.
This board is ALWAYS delusional this time of year and this season is no exception. I believe the consensus record in the official prediction thread was 12-1 when you toss out my 9-3.
Harbaugh has yet to record ONE road victory over a ranked team in three years but hey "Michigan's gonna win by 21 easy".
Take it from Grandpa whose watched games in South Bend since the late 70's-no game there is easy (other than 2006) and weird shit ALWAYS happens and the weird shit ALWAYS goes against us.
August 16th, 2018 at 7:55 AM ^
Couldn't agree more, I don't understand this confidence when the team can't find its own ass with two hands, a flashlight, and a map on the road. Until I see it happen I assume that a challenging road game is an automatic loss. What scares the shit out of me is this year feels super pressure packed and I am very concerned about a Hokian fourth year spiral all starring because no-one seems to know how to play football on the road for some dumb reason.
August 16th, 2018 at 11:00 AM ^
I was kinda with you up until the last sentence. There will be no "Hokian fourth year". That is absurd.
August 17th, 2018 at 8:27 AM ^
Fair enough and I recognize it's on the far end of the distribution, BUT the Offensive line still seems like a problem and Michigan has a tough schedule against a bunch of opponents who all smell blood. I'm just saying it's possible and not in crazy world either.
August 16th, 2018 at 11:03 AM ^
While I agree that there is way too much overconfidence on the board ( I am a believe it when I see it in a game guy), is it really that hard to understand where it comes from?
Michigan will absolutely have a top 5 D. This is the first year Harbaugh has a guy at QB that from week 1 is very likely a ++ player. The rest of the O has no place to go but up. Coaching changes in the off season.
Those are some rational reasons for people to believe that this year will be different.
August 16th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^
Wow bud, I’ve recognized your avatar for a long time but never knew you to be so negative....lol....hope all is well.
I also hope you’re wrong.
Anyway, Fuck Rudy
Go Blue!!!
August 17th, 2018 at 10:39 PM ^
All is indeed well and I hope I'm wrong as well, just need to see it first.
August 16th, 2018 at 8:42 AM ^
Right and when I think about weird shit I think about special teams. How do they match up? I'm not sure I love our kicking game (and no Doug Foug).
August 16th, 2018 at 12:36 PM ^
Reading this blog last season you'd think Foug was our team MVP and all-american. The dude did kick offs. He did them well but he is easily replaceable because a guy who only does kick offs is always easily replaceable. Not to mention Nordin has the strongest kicking leg I have ever seen at Michigan.
August 16th, 2018 at 9:15 AM ^
First, Harbaugh HAS defeated a ranked team on the road: Florida 2017. They were ranked #17.
Second, it's a dumb argument anyway. Michigan has only played four games on the road against ranked opponents during Harbaugh's tenure. Of those four, three were against top 5 teams (#2 PSU and #5 Wisconsin last year, #2 OSU in 2016). In each of those cases we were the dog and in two of them John O'Korn was our QB.
You criticize people in here for being overly optimistic. I suggest to you that you're being overly pessimistic.
August 16th, 2018 at 9:22 AM ^
A) Florida was a neutral site game B) Florida finished last year 4-7, unless you are counting on ND being actively bad this year the perception of Florida going into that game didn't match reality and isn't instructive for this game.
And its not just about beating ranked teams on the road, we are under .500 against any team with a winning record on the road. Remember Utah year 1? That is the most similar game in terms of expectation setting. The benefits of it not being the first game of the first year are offset by ND being a better team than Utah. You still have a QB in his first game in a new system with zero live game experience, behind what is a best case scenario mediocre line. If we can avoid 3 interceptions and only have like 1, I think we will win like we could have won that Utah game. I can also see us throwing 3 interceptions, falling behind early and not having enough juice to play from behind and catch up.
August 16th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
A) The game was played away from Michigan Stadium. In the South. It was an away game.
B) I guess it shouldn't surprise me that you want to move the goalposts. The reality doesn't match your narrative, after all, and if you're not the most negative poster on this board you're certainly in the running.
At least we agree that we'll win. That's probably the most positive thing I've ever seen you post on here, so I'll take that and call it good.
August 16th, 2018 at 10:22 AM ^
Thats not how away games work. The stadium was 50/50 or at worst 60/40, both teams had to deal with travel etc.
I didn't say anything about beating ranked teams on the road. I used a different statistic that has a larger sample size to illustrate that Michigan has struggled on the road against any team with a pulse. If you have a problem with that assertion refute it with facts rather than ad hominem attacks about my perceived attitude towards the team.
Here is the breakdown of Michigan on the road against teams with a winning record under Harbaugh:
Wins:
29-26 over minnesota (took a goal line stand to beat a mediocre team that technically finished 6-7)
48-41 over Indiana ( a 2ot win over a team that also finished 6-7)
28-16 over penn state (an actually moderately comfortable win over a not tire fire team)
28-10 over Purdue (solid win over a decent team)
Losses:
Lost 24-17 at Utah (they finished ranked, was fine performance overall)
Lost 14-13 at Iowa (Iowa is a perfectly solid team, still a terrible loss given where that season was going)
Lost 30-27 at OSU in 2ot (played an incredible game against a good team, most crushing loss of the Harbaugh era but not reflective of a poor performance)
Lost 42-13 at PSU (only the second time we've been truly blown out under Harbaugh, just didn't have it at all)
Lost 24-10 at Wisconsin (solid showing until Peters got injured and defense ran out of gas)
So we are 4-5 over 9 road games against teams that even finished 6-6. Only one of our wins even came against a team that got to 8 wins on the season. Nothing about that fills me with the idea that we are suddenly going to win by 2 scores against a team on the road that is, even if overrated, almost certainly a top 25 caliber team.
August 16th, 2018 at 9:53 AM ^
Are you one of those people that likes to be negative to avoid being disappointed?
August 16th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
Either an MSU or OSU concern troll.
August 16th, 2018 at 4:14 PM ^
How is he a troll? Pointing out facts is not being a troll. The negative part is the fact that, regrettably, the facts displayed are not of our favor. Good teams win on the road. We've been average and it's time to change that. That's all he's sayin
August 16th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
The dude presents factual statistics to explain his reasonable point of view and because those stats don't say we are going to win by 3+ scores he is a negative person or a troll?
Debate back with more numbers or something of significance. Blind homerism is fine but if you are going to refute someone bring something to the table at least.
August 16th, 2018 at 1:29 PM ^
Idk, that might be asking a lot from this board.
August 16th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^
I tend to agree with both of you to a certain extent, but I wouldn't say that 2015 Utah is a worse team than 2018 ND. We obviously don't know about ND yet, but they lost a bunch of talent from a team that went 10-3 last year. You could reasonably see them have the same record this year, but I would project 8-9 wins instead of 10. Utah in 2015 went 10-3 and (if I'm remembering correctly) was ranked in the top 3 at one point that year.
Harbaugh's first game as Michigan head coach vs. year 4 first game with this loaded roster? I like Michigan in a 13-21 kind of game. I think it's a close game due to an early interception from Shea (it's tradition to throw at least one in the first game of the year: Rudock 2015 - Threw 2; Speight 2016 - First pass was an int; Speight 2017 - two pick 6's).
August 16th, 2018 at 9:17 AM ^
I agree. I predicted 8-4 in the prediction thread, and the difficulty of this game is one reason why I was and am so pessimistic compared to others. I do think 9-3 is more likely than 7-5, especially with the MAYFIELD IS HAPPENING rumors, but our schedule is, frankly, so hard as to be unfair.
August 16th, 2018 at 9:20 AM ^
Well, to be fair, the Harbaugh-led Wolverines didn't play a ranked team on the road in 2015 (Utah was not yet ranked). In 2016, the only ranked road opponent was OSU (Iowa was not ranked). And, last year the ranked road opponents were Penn State and Wisconsin. So, Harbaugh is 0-3 against ranked road opponents so far in his Michigan tenure. I wouldn't quite state that 3 games is a large enough sample size to express worry about the team's ability, or doubt about an easy victory in South Bend.
There generally just seems to be a panic caused by the team's performance in 2017. I see it as an outlier. The fortunes Michigan Football were turned around overnight by Coach Harbaugh. Have we so easily forgotten the 2013 and 2014 seasons? Those years were so bad that even staunch Michigan advocates were thinking it'd be several years before Harbaugh got that talent performing at a respectable level. Yet, he did it the FIRST year! Then the second year he had the Michigan Football team in the hunt for the CFP, where many analysts were promoting their entry because of the questionable loss in Columbus.
Then, the team has one relatively bad year (it wasn't 3-9) and doubt becomes the purveying narrative? Mind you, this bad year was with one of the 5 youngest teams in college football, and with a starting quarterback and leader who didn't play after game 4. Add to that, the fact that the backup qb was not up to the job, the third string qb was not quite yet ready to lead, and the offensive line was a mess of mixed messages and over-information.
It boils down to one question - do you trust Harbaugh? If yes, then cease with the overreactions about last year, and trust that he's addressed the flaws. And, if you don't trust Harbaugh, go take a look at what he did at Stanford, San Francisco, and in 2015 and 2016.
The lack of context with some Michigan fans is quite irksome!
August 16th, 2018 at 9:46 AM ^
Michigan's has a sparkling 9-9 record over our last 18 games with a sterling 4-6 record in road and neutral site games. All coached by Harbaugh.
And you think I need a lesson in context?
August 16th, 2018 at 10:01 AM ^
Yes, I do, since you're cherry picking to suit your narrative. I'm not sure why you're choosing to ignore his first two seasons, but only you can answer that.
Clearly, though, you're not particularly interested in context when it doesn't suit your argument.
I guess we'll both find out whether your concerns end up being proved valid or whether they're pearl-clutching as the season progresses.
August 16th, 2018 at 1:36 PM ^
The issue people have is that even in his first two seasons, we didn’t beat anyone outside of that one Wisconsin game. Sure we managed 10 wins but we lost to every quality team we faced.
At some point, you have to start getting top quality wins, not just whipping up on Rutgers every year.
This is, I believe, what’s causing people to be nervous about the future. It’s not that he’s pulled a Dantonio and went 3-9, it’s that we can’t ever seem to beat the big dogs, which, really, is why we hired Harbaugh in the first place. And the reason we’re losing these games is due to horrific offense...which is supposed to be Harbaugh’s forte and thus has people wondering what the problem is.
August 16th, 2018 at 1:30 PM ^
I don't post often but read almost every day and started from before you join date.
I used to really enjoy your posts but something happened (in the last year?) and you have become unreasonably pessimistic (to put it lightly).
I hope things get better for you someday. Seriously.
Having said all that, a minor correction:
1) JH is 9-8 in the last 17 games (still sucks, kinda)
2) Which means JH was 19-3 in his first 22 games at UM
August 16th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
Context works both ways, not just the ways that makes you feel most confident. You can't use only close losses in your argument if you ignore all the close wins that could have easily been losses.
If you want to talk about being a play away from beating OSU or MSU, then you should recognize how it took OT or double OT to beat Indiana 2 of the last 3 years. Or a goal line stand to beat Minnesota in 2015.
2017, do we even beat Florida if not for a Rs Frosh kicker in his first ever game and at Jerry World of all stages to make 4 field goals including 2 from 50+ AND scoring a defensive TD? Do we beat Cincy if we don't have 2 pick 6's and a safety? Air Force was a chip shot FG away from making it a 22-16 game in the 4th quarter against us, and again thank the football gods our frosh kicker was 5-5 on fgs or else AF may have beat us.
People take for granted these types of wins when extraordinary things go in our favor but when extraordinary things cause our losses then that is the only context people choose to see.
The trust the coaches thing gets brought up every single head coach we have. I remember the "In Rod we trust" shirts. I remember the trusting Hoke after he instantly turned us into an 11 win team. I think we all trust Harbaugh a hell of a lot more than any other recent coach but that does not mean you aren't allowed to have concerns going into the season.
August 16th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
Bingo. To me, last year was a mess due to all sorts of variables, especially injuries at the most vital position on the team. I think most fans, and fans of other teams do not realize this.
Notre Dame in 2016 went 4-8. Michigan was ranked #2 in the nation before Iowa knocked us off in a tough road game. We were ranked #2 with Wilton Speight as our QB! To think Harbaugh is some overrated terrible coach, is absurd. He's flat out a good coach. We will win games this year.
Notre Dame goes from 4-8 in 2016 then goes 10-3 in 2017, while Michigan goes 8-5 in 2017 and Notre Dame fans will tell you how badly they are going to CRUSH US this year. I just can't even...
I mean, Brian Kelly is WAYYYYYYYY better than Harbaugh because he went to a national title!!!!
August 16th, 2018 at 1:44 PM ^
Kelly may not be “wayyyyyyyy” better, but too many people want to discount the fact that he took his team to a NCG. It’s far more than Harbaugh has ever accomplished in the college game.
So then the question becomes, what factors do you use to judge how good a coach is? Philosophy? Schematic? Popularity? On-Field Achievements? Off-Field Achievements? Recruiting Prowess?
Personally, I tend to put the most weight in “on-field achievements” If coach A doesn’t ever match the wins and accomplishments of coach B, then logic would dictate that coach B is better.
And if both coaches are still coaching, then you asses the current achievements of both and then continue to watch and make updates as necessary.
August 16th, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^
Yea? Brian Kelly has also been coaching Notre Dame for over 9 years. Something Harbaugh has not done at Michigan as well.
I guess going to a super Bowl, Turning Stanford into a national presence, taking a terrible Michigan team to #2 nationally in year two defines, for me at least, a good coach. Not one who has coached at a high level name such a Notre dame for 10 years and only "went" to a national title game, losing 41-14. So again, what has Kelly done that is so much better than Harbaugh? What major bowl game has Notre Dame won under Brian Kelly? What am I missing here?
Maybe if Jim stayed a coach in college, he would have accomplished as much as Brian Kelly has.....
August 16th, 2018 at 3:47 PM ^
Maybe. Time will tell. And if you bothered to read my post, you'd know that I am specifically referring to college achievements. We all know that the NFL is a whole different animal and the two are not even close to a direct translation. NFL success is NEVER an automatic predictor of college success and vice versa.
SO FAR, Kelly has a greater accomplishment in college coaching than Harbaugh has. That's a simple fact. You say here merely "went" to a national title game, but if Harbaugh had taken Michigan to the national title game in the past three years and came away with a loss, you'd be trumpeting that accomplishment from the rooftops, so stop the nonsense. Kelly has a 6-4 bowl record as a college head coach with a national title appearance. Harbaugh has a 2-3 bowl record as a college head coach with no national title appearances.
So yeah, SO FAR, it's pretty obvious to see that Kelly has accomplished more on the field. That doesn't mean that Kelly is "wayyyyyyy" better or that Harbaugh can't match or even best those accomplishments...it's just a statement of the current facts. The one thing Harbaugh does have over Kelly at the moment is he's 1-0 against Kelly so far, got that win back in 2010 at Stanford.
The point is everyone acts like Kelly is a louse of a coach and has never done anything while at the same time trumpeting how Harbaugh is the best coach since sliced bread even though Kelly's actually made it to the natty before. I'm not big on digging at other coaches who've done more than our own. It's completely hollow. Wait until Harbaugh matches and then bests these other coaches before we talk about how much better our coach is than theirs.
August 17th, 2018 at 9:20 AM ^
Oh, man, I totally missed your post. YOU ARE SO RIGHT!!! I take back everything I said while comparing Jim Harbaugh to Brian Kelly. You have cleared this up for me! I thought we were simply comparing what "I DEFINE AS A GOOD COACH." But you are right. Brian Kelly has accomplished way more than Jim. A 2-3 bowl record is terrible. Harbaugh is overrated and very, very bad.
I wish we'd hired Brian Kelly instead. He most definitely has not brought any negative publicity to the university of Notre Dame in any way, shape or form! Again, I thought you asked me to define what "I" as in "me" define as a good coach. Oh well, you win!
Harbaugh Bad, Kelly good. Got it!
Thanks for clearing that up mitchewr! You rock duder Mcscooter!! Sorry for "Trumpeting" haha.
Have a great weekend!
August 17th, 2018 at 11:04 AM ^
Everything is such an extreme. Goodness I feel sorry for you.
Remind me not to ever try and have a rational, normal discussion of facts with you in the future.
August 17th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
Ok. I will remind you.