It's Not As Bad As It Looks
Mods, feel free to delete if this should be in the Snowflakes threads.
As awful as that ass whipping was, I don't think it's a sign of major structural deficiencies within the program. It looks like the team as currently constructed has three issues:
1) The DTs are bad. Losing Mo Hurst absolutely killed us in this game. The bucknuts doubled Gary or Chase and then had their guard and center single block the DTs. And they absolutely handled us. So the line was giving us no rush, and then our blitzes were either negated via quick passes or <cringe> successfully picked up. Don Brown's defense is heavily dependent on pressure, and we got nothing.
2) The passing game is poorly designed. We have few plays in the short/intermediate area that actually scheme a guy open. Or if we do, it's obvious and the defense adjusts to it. We exclusively rely on our guys to win their routes, and we rarely use misdirection to force safeties and/or LBs to make difficult choices. It's too bad, because both the OSU LBs and safeties have shown all year that they suck at making difficult choices. One of our TDs was when we stacked our TEs, ran crossing routes with them, and then sent Chris Evans on a wheel route which was wide open. Next time we ran it, Higdon got smacked. No adjustment at all to punish the overreaction to it <shrug>. And I won't even get into how we criminally misuse our RBs in the passing game.
3) We don't have a gamebreaker. We currently do not have a guy on offense that is a threat to take it to the house at all times a la Rondale Moore, Anthony McFarland, and Paris Campbell. A guy like that can make up for numerous inefficiencies elsewhere.
The good news - Problems 1 and 3 seem to be well on the way to being solved. Another year of seasoning for Dwumfour, Kemp, and Jeter, along with the return of Aubrey Solomon and additions of Chris Hinton and Mazi Smith, should solve our DT issues. Additionally, we are recruiting guys like Giles Jackson who have that ability to take a 5-yard out route 80 yards to the house. In fact, we're recruiting a bunch of slot ninjas who turn short routes into solid gains. So you can see where the offense is going.
And here's the bad news - I think the best way to fix Problem 2 is to tell Pep Hamilton to kick rocks and bring in a more dynamic, innovative passing coordinator. In fact, I'd be thrilled if we could get Jedd back in place of Pep. Problem is that I don't know that Harbaugh would go that route. The play designs are just not smooth right now; every time Shea goes back to pass, it's a fucking adventure. That being said, we also dealt with a new QB, an improving but imperfect OL, and youngish WRs. It may be better to give these kids offensive consistency.
Silver lining - Even if nothing in the passing game changes, we should be in much better shape due to Problem 1 getting fixed, and the OL taking the next big step forward. Another year under Warinner plus Jalen Mayfield stepping up and becoming the next stud OT at Michigan. By their own admission, Warinner and Harbaugh limited the information load to the young linemen. They should now be able to download more information and do a lot better, especially with pass protection. One way to spice up basic routes is to make them option routes. We already know Pep loves these, and, when executed properly, they are damn near impossible to stop consistently. The rub is that it requires both QB and WR to read the defense the same way and be on the same page. When that doesn't happen, you have John O'Korn's game ending pick against the bucks in 2017. I don't think we really ran many option routes this year; we had a first-year QB (in the system) and underclass receivers. Next year, all the receivers will be upperclassmen, and Shea would be in Year 2 (or Dylan in Year 3). So option routes should be feasible. This all to say that if we don't replace Pep, we really should still be much more explosive on offense given the other changes. I really believe that the whole "body blow" strategy was due to Jim's lack of confidence in the consistency of a new QB with underclass receivers. A fully operational Harbaughfence can smack you in any possible way - see Stanford 2011. You're going to load the box?? Andrew Luck will drop dimes to the TEs and Doug Baldwin. You're going to protect against the pass now? Here, eat this ogre formation and watch Tyler Gaffney run it down your throat. It's run-heavy and relies on toughness, but it's more than happy to light you up in the air to get you to back off the box.
In short, we are not as far as it we may think right now. There is certainly wood to be chopped, but it's not insurmountable.
November 25th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^
Carr was once 6-1 VS OSU. He finished 6-7. Just saying. There is hope to reverse things.
November 26th, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^
Are you saying hire Jim Tressel.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:07 AM ^
osu has demographic and institutional advantages and a great coach.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:42 AM ^
100% agree. Denial won't fix this.
November 25th, 2018 at 4:55 AM ^
Thanks for a great post. Of course people should be upset with some things, but I'm so tired of wading through the trash on the board about firing everyone and how we'll never win. OSU is basically Alabama. They aren't just a really good program. They're elite. It's not going to be easy to climb up to their level. And it won't happen until Michigan is running on all cylinders the way Harbaugh wants it to be run. Yes, OSU hasn't played well, but we know they had all the talent and coaching, and they put it together against us on their home turf. People keep talking about how this was our chance, but it's not like we had some plucky senior-laden team and it's starting at the bottom next year. OSU won't be more talented next year. They already bring in so much talent. Firing coaches over one game is dumb, but I wouldn't mind seeing Pep leave. Good point about route trees though. And it is Harbaugh's offense. Don't forget Shea never played in any kind of complicated passing system like Harbaugh wants to run. I think we'll be better at QB even if Shea leaves because of experience in the system, though I want him to return of course. It's nice having a strong running game, but Harbaugh wouldn't have had the success he did at Stanford without a great passing QB in Luck. Who else do we lose? Higdon and JBB? The've been solid contributors, but they're definitely replaceable.
With JBB out, how many seniors started on our OL yesterday? Zero. We know part of the OL problems are on Harbaugh and staff, but it looks like they're on track to finally get them playing the way they should. The OL was improved and will be better next year. Our deficiency there was really my big takeaway from yesterday's game. And it reminds me of what Space Coyote said. If you can't block, all the playcalling looks like crap. I'm sure playcalling could have been better, but there were DL and LBs running free all over the place. A few of those were straight up the gut, which, as Brian has pointed out, is really the worst way to get pressured and almost hadn't happened at all this year besides the ND game.
I think our D would have been way better if OSU was running things like they had with Barrett. Brown got outschemed no doubt, but he has the track record to show he can fix it. I'm not worried about the D long-term.
November 25th, 2018 at 6:54 AM ^
And they preserved some key redshirts this year. Part of the reason we’re in this mess was an inability to do so in the past.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:13 AM ^
Just wish Hudson would have stayed. It's still crazy to me that he left with a great shot at being a starting tackle next year, and he was what? A sophomore? Redshirt freshman?
November 25th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
This part is badly underemphasized in all these discussions. Our depth is still pretty bad, especially in the all-important lines. This meant playing injured starters over backups—what does it say about depth if injured Chase and Gary are better than their backups? And developing a line is a multi-year process, involving both consistently good recruiting, multi-year SC plus live-game seasoning in garbage time, and good coaching even before they hit the field. One or more of those has been missing since Harbaugh got here, and the recovery timeline is long. Arguably, this is the first year where all three have been in place.
November 26th, 2018 at 6:05 AM ^
Good points. We still have big drop offs in spots, especially OL. The tackles this year were supposed to be total trash and they weren't. This program is still progressing.
November 25th, 2018 at 7:14 AM ^
“I think our D would have been way better if OSU was running things like they had with Barrett.”
This is so crucially important and this was a one year/game blip. They’ll be back to that version of their system next year after Haskins leaves for the upcoming draft.
November 26th, 2018 at 1:07 AM ^
Yeah, Martell does not scare me like Haskins did.
Haskins with his very quick accurate release from his tall frame is kryptonite to a Don Brown defense.
Does Campbell leave too?
November 25th, 2018 at 7:30 AM ^
I disagree with the claim that OSU is essentially Bama and is absolutely elite. Remember that this same team that just beat us by 23 points (at home in their biggest game of the year) also lost to unranked Purdue by 29 points and gave up 57 points to a sub-0.500 Maryland team (and rightfully should have lost that game). Bama never has those moments. Basically, OSU is a good team that prepared well for this game (in addition to getting the injury and luck breaks going its way such that a likely close win became a route). They will likely make the #4 spot in the final CFP rankings (unless OU dominates Texas more the OSU does to NW) and then get blown out by Bama.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:15 AM ^
They're 11-1 in their "down year", so yes I'd call that elite. OK. They're not quite Alabama, but Alabama under Saban is literally the greatest college football dynasty of all time, and Alabama this year may literally be the greatest team of all time. OSU under Meyer is still elite by any reasonable definition. They pull in top 3 recruiting classes every year and Meyer's worst season by record at OSU is 11-2.
November 25th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^
They didn't give up 57 points to Maryland
In regulation, they gave up 45 points. The final score was 52-51.
Still a lot of points to give up. The game was not in C-bus and OSU doesn't gameplan all year long for the @Maryland game.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:09 AM ^
good post
November 25th, 2018 at 5:39 AM ^
Buy the recruits, win the games. Would you rather Michigan become a football factory with terrible and ever declining academics like osu, alabama, clemson, etc, or keep their academic standards and lose some games every year? You can't have both.
November 25th, 2018 at 5:59 AM ^
I remain surprised that in a game where we give up 62 people are focused on the offense.
Defense was shredded top to bottom.
OSU has better talent, everywhere, and when they don't play down to the level of the opponent (Purdue, Maryland) they can crush almost anyone. Unfortunately they get up for us.
OSU clearly picked on Watson w/the crossing routes. He got burned more than a few times.
OL struggled and still put up 39. This one was on the defense.
November 25th, 2018 at 6:02 AM ^
It's true, but a lot of that seemed like garbage time. I wonder what our YPP was. It couldn't have been that high. And one of those TD drives started at what? OSU's 7 yard line?
November 25th, 2018 at 6:47 AM ^
I agree. Offense couldn't move the ball well enough. OSU had the ball with a short field all too often. Blocked punt and the interception put the game away for OSU. Michigan wouldn't have had to punt if they were moving the ball (catching it). Playing with the lead and field position at home made most of this game way too easy for OSU.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:02 AM ^
Completely agree. The defense was blown out. Why we keep harping on the offense that did ok I don’t understand.
I’ll be haunted by visions of fast receivers running full speed across the middle with a defender three feet back all game long.
Or the guy standing alone in the end zone
November 26th, 2018 at 1:22 AM ^
I think the focus on the offense is because that is where many of us thought the game would be won or lost.
We were aware that our defense was feasting all year on some very bad offenses and might not be as good as assumed.
To us, the Indiana struggles were not a case of the defense holding back and playing vanilla, but rather a result of finally playing a competent/healthy QB.
We knew we were not going to win the game on defense 17-10 like it was the 1970s.
To win, the offense would have to put up points and keep up with Ohio State.
It's disappointing because it seemed like the offense was capable of at least giving that a good shot.
So we get it, Harbaugh wanted to run the ball and win time of possession and inflict body blows for the 4th quarter . . . but Ohio State had other plans.
We never adjusted to Plan B on offense to compete in a shootout, when it was clear in the 1st quarter that Plan A was not going to work.
November 26th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^
I wouldn't say top to bottom. Winovich and Gary were often double-teamed so that's tough to beat no matter who you are. Hill and Long were rarely targeted. Man, I hope at least one of those two come back next year.
November 25th, 2018 at 7:26 AM ^
Thanks for the optimism. I didn't expect our team to be 10-2 and they performed great throughout the year.
I hope the coaching staff learns a lot from this game
Can't ever take OSU for granted and when given the chance you have to grind them to dust.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:15 AM ^
I'm totally down with hiring Bama and Ohio State's bagmen.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:16 AM ^
This may be hard to believe but we are not the first great defense to get shredded.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:25 AM ^
Right. There are a lot of great DCs who have had terrible games. Didn't Brett Venables get fired from Oklahoma? Now he's considered one of the best at Clemson.
November 25th, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^
Nor are we the first great defense to be shredded by Meyer (see semifinal v Alabama in 2014), who operates on a very specific principle. Get your athletes 1:1 in space. He did it spread to run with Alex Smith, Cardale, Tebow and Barrett, and he's done it spread to pass now with Haskins. Harbaugh's offenses don't really run this way, although it's hard to say whether it's because we lack the athletes.
November 25th, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^
Our offense line, while vastly improved, is light years behind OSU. It also didn't help that we ran a boring unimaginitive pass game all year, as only a compliment to the run. Who knew that barely passing all damn year would come back to haunt us if we ever got into a shoot out with a high paced spread team?
Honestly if we were just looking for a game manager, what was the point of bringing in Patterson? It's 2018, and we have some of the most talented receivers in the nation, which are really just glorified blockers in this offense.
November 25th, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^
No, but you act like we don't get shredded regularly against Ohio State.
Points scored by OSU in the last 10 games against UM: 21, 37, 34, 26, 42, 42, 42, 30, 31, 62.
Not good.
November 26th, 2018 at 1:27 AM ^
Sounds like we might need an offense that can score 40 points, rather than hoping our defense can hold them to 20 points.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:22 AM ^
The sky is not falling but, note to file, let's not guarantee any more wins against OSU!
November 25th, 2018 at 8:40 AM ^
Losing to the Machine in Columbus hurts, like bleeding the colors out of life and being filled with a sense of unease. But 10-2 and a tie for 1st in the East division is still pretty good and on the upper end of the predictions after Notre Dame. OSU played the long con on everyone this year and put up a performance (both coaches and players) that finally matched their talent level. We aren’t them, with their all-consuming mania, nor do we want to be. So we live with the bitter dregs of an ass whipping at their bloody hands.
College football has high variability, which is to be expected in a game played by 19-21 year old men. Our weakness got identified and exploited with a good game plan, while it would seem that we put in less effort on ours. Like the guy said above, Don Brown’s game plan got chained to the back of a pick-up and dragged around the parking lot. Since we play a high risk, high reward style of defense, neutralizing our strength (DL and tight man coverage) with speed crossing routes exposed the risk side of the equation. Credit Haskins with doing his part in the passing game.
Will we be better next year? Probably on offense, more doubtful on defense, but we’ll still be Michigan and will operate with a sense of ethics and integrity. You can be critical of Harbaugh’s stubbonness, but I can’t think of anyone else I’d rather have representing the core values of our tribe.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:41 AM ^
I think JH is a good coach, but my hope is he channels a bit of John Beilein.
JB evolves. He got himself a DC in Yaklich when he knew he needed improvement there. He recognized he needed more athletes when the shot clock went to 30. He talks about how teams are going positionless. He adapts to how the game is changing.
Some morning coffees with JB talking about evolving as a coach wouldn’t be a bad start.
November 26th, 2018 at 1:40 AM ^
This is so true.
Beilein's teams look nothing now like they did when he got here.
He has adapted several times during his tenure here . . . from perimeter passing threes to attacking the rim with athletes to playing dog-fight defense.
He did not stay locked into a system that previously defined him. He adapted as needed, and brought in the right people to do that when necessary.
If Beilein can let go of the "Princeton" system, Harbaugh can let go of "Stanford' system.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:42 AM ^
I think a lot of the anger comes from the fact that no matter which OC you swap in, it's still Harbaugh calling the offense. Michigan has been way too old school and vanilla to ever outgun a good modern offense like OSU. As long as that offensive philosophy remains in place, I don't think we ever win the B1G unless OSU suffers a long regression like we did starting with Richrod.
November 25th, 2018 at 8:49 AM ^
Last year, Ohio State had 13 recruits rated higher than our best recruit.
Player development isn’t getting the job done. If Michigan is going to play with the big boys, they’re going to have to recruit like the big boys.
This year’s class is a start, but we can’t have 20+ ranked classes and expect to win championships when going up against Alabama, Ohio State and Georgia athletes.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:01 AM ^
You ain't getting Jedd fisch unless he has full power of the offense
November 25th, 2018 at 9:05 AM ^
Which I think is fair.
Why would any OC want to come in only to be told that they must run the ball on first and second down.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:15 AM ^
Ohio State hates Michigan more than Michigan hates OSU. They’ve made this game bigger for them than us. Their players get special medals for beating Michigan. It’s harder to play there for us than A2 is for them. Tressell changed the culture there and Michigan hasn’t responded.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:42 AM ^
The team peaked against PSU and never recovered that fire they played with vs. Wisconsin, MSU, and Penn St.
I'm not sure JH has to drastically change his offensive scheme but I'd like to see him utiize the talent he has. If there is one continuing gripe I have of Jim Harbaugh it is that he doesn't use his players in a way that gets the max out of their talent or skills.
The team is loaded with WR's. I'd like to see an offense that looks like Lloyd's last game vs. Florida where UM went 3 or 4 wide, aired it out but the RB still got 100 yards (at least I think Hart ran for 100 that day). That is still one of best looking UM offenses I've seen to this day. This wouldn't take any kind of drastic change from JH, just give the talent he has an opportunity to shine.
Defensively, Don Brown seems as stubborn as JH. A good QB can shred his defense and he doesn't have much counter to this.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:47 AM ^
I was going to post this as a separate diary, but screw it.
It isn't as bad as it looks, even after yesterday. Since 2015, Michigan is tied for the 7th most wins among P5 programs with 38. The ones ahead of them are:
Alabama (53), Clemson (52), Ohio State (46), Oklahoma (45), Georgia (42), Wisconsin (41)
I'm going to go ahead and discount the Badgers for feasting on what might be the weakest division in P5.
You have Alabama and Clemson who have made or will make the CFP every year for the past 4 and win their conference (minus Bama last year). You have OSU and OU who are just a step below that and then Georgia who is getting to that level. FWIW, Washington and Stanford are the other teams at 38.
So, yeah, Michigan isn't elite, but they are consistently really good. I don't know if you guys realize this or not, but winning 10-11 games every year is hard to do.
FWIW, here are some of the other numbers that might interest you:
Penn State - 37
Notre Dame - 36
USC - 34
FSU - 32
MSU - 32
November 25th, 2018 at 10:42 AM ^
But therein lies the rub. Michigan sees itself as an Ohio State, Oklahoma, Georgia level program. But they are firmly in that tier below them, and as long as Ohio State stays on course that’s where they will stay. Best case scenario on a yearly basis is 2nd in the Big Ten East.
All of those other programs make it to conf championships on a regular basis which is a big recruiting tool. And if you can’t even get to your conference’s championship game it’s tough to bring in that level of athlete you need to get over the hump.
All yesterday’s game did was make it crystal clear that 10-2 or 11-1 and 2nd in the BTE is the ceiling for this team for the foreseeable future.
November 25th, 2018 at 11:26 AM ^
This post should be a diary, or at least part of a diary that puts in context the reality of how much better JH has done at bringing Michigan back than other programs--USC, FSU, Texas, ND, etc.
JH has Michigan as a top ten program. That is impressive, given that when he arrived Michigan has just finished the worst decade in its entire history.
Getting up to a top 5 program is going to be even harder.
It will only happen if JH emulates Saban and Meyer by making changes and improvements every off season to make his staff better.
The offensive staff is good. But it is not good enough. Criminal to so under utilize his most talented players on offense, Patterson and receiver corps. Criminal to be completely clueless on using tempo when needed. Criminal to have such a terrible short passing game. Criminal to think that the best plan against OSU was to try to beat their only really good position defensive group (d-line) with the same stuff you used against Rutgers.
JH really needs to bring in an OC that is not just a mini-Harbaugh. He needs a guy with different ideas, ideas about how to create offensive mismatches, uses his most talented guys in space.
Both Meyer and Saban did it. If JH fails to do it he will never get Michigan better than what they are now--2nd best in the Big Ten
D. Brown is great. But he has to improve by installing and practicing a zone scheme that can deal with the Meyer/Day mesh passing game.
November 25th, 2018 at 12:59 PM ^
Urban inherited a much better situation than JH. JH did well to get us back to Top 10-15 but I agree with the Saban analysis - never be happy - always bring in new ideas.
Lost in all of this is that Dicktonio, after 8-2 streak, has probably beaten M for the last time until Narduzzi replaces him. Living in the state, it's been even more awful listening to the GO Green Go White crap.
Next year, the schedule is in our favor and the tough games in the 2nd half.
November 25th, 2018 at 9:55 AM ^
Great piece of info. Know your issues and upgrade. Thanks.
November 25th, 2018 at 10:10 AM ^
The Clemson-Carolina game showed what a dominant O-Line can do. Clemson had huge flaws in that game -- couldn't cover anyone -- but their O Line kicked serious butt. And they gashed their opponent all game long. May Ed Warinner bring us into this state of affairs soon.
November 25th, 2018 at 10:16 AM ^
Agreed.
November 25th, 2018 at 10:36 AM ^
Based off of nothing other than a gut feeling, I bet Solomon transfers. That DL is paper thin and has some major talent issues next year even with him.
November 25th, 2018 at 10:44 AM ^
What makes you have that feeling?? He’s clearly the best DT we have. And I disagree that we’re paper thin at the position. We have Solomon, Dwumfour, Kemp, and Jeter at DT. DE is a bit thin since we have Paye, Hutchinson, and Uche. Also we have Hinton and Smith incoming for DT. For DE, we have a chance at closing for Harrison and Karlaftis (assuming the loss to OSU doesn’t change the calculus for Harrison and that Brohm leaves Louisville). Additionally, Villain is an X-factor. If he finally gets healthy, he is quite promising.
November 25th, 2018 at 11:46 AM ^
The DTs are bad
Dwumfor and Kemp are just guys. Solomon was supposed to be the next dude and was hurt all year. Gary and Winovich were dissapointing period. Their health was questionable. But, we are addressing this issue. Hutchinson and Paye have shown potential. Solomon should be back and healthy. Villain is another high level recruit who hasn't been healthy yet. We have Mazi Smith and Hinton coming in and have a shot at Harrison.
The passing game is poorly designed
Our offense does not put guys in space like OSU. Our offense relies on the QB to make good throws and the o-line and TEs to protect and make space to run the ball. They did not do that against OSU. Warriner has helped and hopefully will stick around. Bredeson, Onwenu, and Ruiz are all high level recruits. The tackle position will take more time. Mayfield has shown potential. Jones is coming in as a recruit. This should improve over time, but is taking longer than expected.
We don't have a gamebreaker
I disagree, we just don't use them well. DPJ has the potential and will continue to develop. Black is really good and was injured. Thomas was in high school and just hasn't been used. Higdon has been and Evans, Charbonnet, and Gray could be. Again, this is all dependent on the o-line winning it's battles against OSU's d-line.
I think the best way to fix Problem 2 is to tell Pep Hamilton to kick rocks and bring in a more dynamic, innovative passing coordinator
I thought Pep did a solid job this year. Granted, I'd love to have Fisch back but I don't see that happening. He wants to run the offense and/or be a HC, which is exactly what JH does, so his future won't be here. We have what we have and our hope is to continue to recruit and develop our o-line.
Even if nothing in the passing game changes, we should be in much better shape due to Problem 1 getting fixed, and the OL taking the next big step forward. Another year under Warinner plus Jalen Mayfield stepping up and becoming the next stud OT at Michigan.
Agreed. IMHO this came down to the fact that our d-line was not healthy. Solomon didn't play. Gary and Winovich were very dissapointing. And, our o-line could neither create holes for the running game nor protect Patterson consistently enough.
We are taking steps in the right direction on these fronts, however the o-line issue is taking longer to fix than we hoped/expected. It will be again better next year, but still won't be "there". Young and Cooper will again dominate Steuber and Mayfield next year. But, hopefully the interior line can create enough holes to get Evans going next year. Hopefully Patterson returns and all the receiving threats get another year of development. A healthy Solomon can get some interior pressure which will open up some matchups for Paye/Hutchinson/Uche/Villain to get more pressure next year. Also, Haskins is probably gone and Martell won't make as many throws and it will be more like defending Barrett than Haskins.
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