It's Not As Bad As It Looks
Mods, feel free to delete if this should be in the Snowflakes threads.
As awful as that ass whipping was, I don't think it's a sign of major structural deficiencies within the program. It looks like the team as currently constructed has three issues:
1) The DTs are bad. Losing Mo Hurst absolutely killed us in this game. The bucknuts doubled Gary or Chase and then had their guard and center single block the DTs. And they absolutely handled us. So the line was giving us no rush, and then our blitzes were either negated via quick passes or <cringe> successfully picked up. Don Brown's defense is heavily dependent on pressure, and we got nothing.
2) The passing game is poorly designed. We have few plays in the short/intermediate area that actually scheme a guy open. Or if we do, it's obvious and the defense adjusts to it. We exclusively rely on our guys to win their routes, and we rarely use misdirection to force safeties and/or LBs to make difficult choices. It's too bad, because both the OSU LBs and safeties have shown all year that they suck at making difficult choices. One of our TDs was when we stacked our TEs, ran crossing routes with them, and then sent Chris Evans on a wheel route which was wide open. Next time we ran it, Higdon got smacked. No adjustment at all to punish the overreaction to it <shrug>. And I won't even get into how we criminally misuse our RBs in the passing game.
3) We don't have a gamebreaker. We currently do not have a guy on offense that is a threat to take it to the house at all times a la Rondale Moore, Anthony McFarland, and Paris Campbell. A guy like that can make up for numerous inefficiencies elsewhere.
The good news - Problems 1 and 3 seem to be well on the way to being solved. Another year of seasoning for Dwumfour, Kemp, and Jeter, along with the return of Aubrey Solomon and additions of Chris Hinton and Mazi Smith, should solve our DT issues. Additionally, we are recruiting guys like Giles Jackson who have that ability to take a 5-yard out route 80 yards to the house. In fact, we're recruiting a bunch of slot ninjas who turn short routes into solid gains. So you can see where the offense is going.
And here's the bad news - I think the best way to fix Problem 2 is to tell Pep Hamilton to kick rocks and bring in a more dynamic, innovative passing coordinator. In fact, I'd be thrilled if we could get Jedd back in place of Pep. Problem is that I don't know that Harbaugh would go that route. The play designs are just not smooth right now; every time Shea goes back to pass, it's a fucking adventure. That being said, we also dealt with a new QB, an improving but imperfect OL, and youngish WRs. It may be better to give these kids offensive consistency.
Silver lining - Even if nothing in the passing game changes, we should be in much better shape due to Problem 1 getting fixed, and the OL taking the next big step forward. Another year under Warinner plus Jalen Mayfield stepping up and becoming the next stud OT at Michigan. By their own admission, Warinner and Harbaugh limited the information load to the young linemen. They should now be able to download more information and do a lot better, especially with pass protection. One way to spice up basic routes is to make them option routes. We already know Pep loves these, and, when executed properly, they are damn near impossible to stop consistently. The rub is that it requires both QB and WR to read the defense the same way and be on the same page. When that doesn't happen, you have John O'Korn's game ending pick against the bucks in 2017. I don't think we really ran many option routes this year; we had a first-year QB (in the system) and underclass receivers. Next year, all the receivers will be upperclassmen, and Shea would be in Year 2 (or Dylan in Year 3). So option routes should be feasible. This all to say that if we don't replace Pep, we really should still be much more explosive on offense given the other changes. I really believe that the whole "body blow" strategy was due to Jim's lack of confidence in the consistency of a new QB with underclass receivers. A fully operational Harbaughfence can smack you in any possible way - see Stanford 2011. You're going to load the box?? Andrew Luck will drop dimes to the TEs and Doug Baldwin. You're going to protect against the pass now? Here, eat this ogre formation and watch Tyler Gaffney run it down your throat. It's run-heavy and relies on toughness, but it's more than happy to light you up in the air to get you to back off the box.
In short, we are not as far as it we may think right now. There is certainly wood to be chopped, but it's not insurmountable.
November 25th, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
I agree that we have those game breakers, and DPJ is the first one that comes to mind. But isn't "not using them well" a function of Pep? Why isn't he scheming to get our receivers open in space like OSU? Why are there so many 3rd/4th down plays that are thrown to a receiver 1-2 yards behind the goal/first down marker?
November 25th, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^
But isn't "not using them well" a function of Pep? Why isn't he scheming to get our receivers open in space like OSU?
I think it's more a function of JH. So, you have to ask yourself can we do better? I don't think we want to get rid of him, so until he's ready to hand the offense over to someone else with a different vision it won't significantly change IMO. We are not a spread team. We are a pro style. We may try and do some spread concepts to keep teams guessing, but our identity is pro style so until we he the horses up front we are working from somewhat of a disadvantage. Simply put our o-line has to match up with their d-line to be effective and they have consistently won that battle.
Why are there so many 3rd/4th down plays that are thrown to a receiver 1-2 yards behind the goal/first down marker?
That is a legitimate question that I don't understand nor does anyone outside of our coaches. They aren't going to tell us why they run what they run or what they were thinking. Why throw short balls to 6'4" WRs and expect them to quickly get upfield when we have smaller shiftier guys better suited to do that? It is a bit dumbfounding. Where are our crossing routes, slants, wheel routes to smaller, shiftier guys like Evans, Perry, Bell, etc. instead of Collins & McKeon? Your guess is as good as mine.
For now we have to settle for 2nd-3rd in the division and 8-10 regular season wins until we can get over that matchup problem with OSU. Granted, it's frustrating, but its better than continuing to change coaches and identities and have continual rebuilding phases. I'd rather be 2nd best in the division 50% of the time than 4th-5th 75% of the time. Recruiting is still doing well and are finding some coaching answers with Brown over Durkin and Warriner over Drevno. I think we miss Fisch & Wheatley, but everyone losses good assistants. It's moving in the right direction, but for now it is what it is. Zen acceptance hummmmm
November 25th, 2018 at 11:47 AM ^
Ya know what really burns me? Seeing advertisements for OSU vs NW. And now, I just want to move on.
November 26th, 2018 at 1:50 AM ^
Wait until you see them for OSU vs Alabama.
November 25th, 2018 at 11:55 AM ^
LMAO.
November 25th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
Wow what a collossal waste of time and words for what is essentially another “wait till next year” post.
November 25th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
I agree. This sucks, but it's fixable. I wouldn't be shocked to see Pep gone in the offseason. That said, the offense wasn't the worst offender here. I love Don Brown but there seems to be one game a year where our defense just fails. If our defense doesn't collapse, we have a shot at this.
November 25th, 2018 at 12:54 PM ^
We have good QB for the 1st time (not counting Jake 2nd half of 2015, that was a gift from Kirk F). I'm also excited seeing what Milton can do in a year or two.
Best OL play in years - not yesterday for sure - but we couldn't even push AFA and Cincy off the ball last year.
The lousy coverage may convince Long and Hill to return.
Totally agree on Hurst - also Taco in 16, etc. They were in the backfield in 16 and 17.
November 25th, 2018 at 1:08 PM ^
If you would have told me last week that we score 39 points, I would have thought it was in the bag. Bo said in an interview that the entire season was in preparation to beating Ohio State. The whole team was built with that in mind. If we can beat the buckeyes, we could beat anybody in our conference. Wise strategy.
November 26th, 2018 at 1:57 AM ^
We did not score 39 competitive points. We had 2 or 3 sad TDs at the end when OSU kept scoring quickly and giving the ball back to us when the game was out of reach.
We needed those TDs in the 1st quarter not the 4th quarter.
November 25th, 2018 at 3:48 PM ^
Not feeling as sanguine. What's the longest he has been at any of his coaching stops? Does he move on because he gets restless or does he move on because people no longer respond to his methods? Also, concerned abut how potential big-time recruits are going to start viewing the program going forward.
November 25th, 2018 at 11:24 PM ^
Yes, JH has moved around quite a bit. I think this spot is different however. Realistically I don't believe there's another job in CFB that would even be tempting to a guy who's returned to his alma mater. Which clearly needed him. And the NFL is a totally different beast - much less control over the roster, etc.
November 25th, 2018 at 4:28 PM ^
Saying MSU only dominated because UM was down is just as weak as saying you only won games during a horrible year in the big ten and MSU’s two worst seasons under dantonio.
Msu beat a better Osu team on that same field wigs backup qb. That “dinosaur” will be more than a 1/5 for your team. Write it down.
Congrats on a good season though. 10-2 is nothing to sneeze at. I’d temper your expectations and not sleep on MSU. One good season and convincing win is exactly that. One.
November 25th, 2018 at 4:39 PM ^
I think as things currently stand, we’re king of the dinosaurs. We can beat similar dinosaur-ball programs MSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, and so forth, while crushing lesser species with relative ease. But the more highly evolved programs, the national powerhouses—those are tough hills for the dinosaurs to climb as their era winds down.
The current national champions and best program of the best decade, Alabama, player dinosaur ball until this season. Dinosaurs can still go far. But “evolution” these days means a program built around highly diversified weapons, because offense now trumps defense at every level, and having the ability to put up 40+ against any program. Defenses may have peaks and valleys, but you can ALWAYS fall back on “that’s OK—our offense can get it done.”
Sound like anyone Michigan played recently?
It’s not foolproof. We all saw OSU vs. Purdue. But check out the recruiting trajectories of the two programs, and tell me whether yesterday was really a surprise?
November 25th, 2018 at 4:55 PM ^
You're right, it was worse.
November 25th, 2018 at 5:15 PM ^
It’s good to hear a reasonable take after reading all the whiny crap on the board. Bottom line, it was one game - really less than one bad half against a very talented team. As bad as it looked, the difference was a handful of plays. Do we judge OSU based purely on its debacles (arguably much worse) against Iowa last year and Purdue this year? Of course not. We have become a very good program again under JH. We are just a few plays from being 6-2 against our main rivals. I don’t know if JH can get us to the next level but he’s our best shot. If he’s flexible (replacing our OC and opening up the offense for instance), I think he just might.
November 25th, 2018 at 6:24 PM ^
Dude, people have a right to "whine" and even "bitch" if you go down to your main rival and get an epic, embarrassing beat down. Don't try to sugarcoat it. Coach harbaugh should issue some sort of apology to the alumni and fans, that would be a good start.
November 25th, 2018 at 10:44 PM ^
Yes, people have a right to be whiny bitches, lol.
November 26th, 2018 at 7:35 AM ^
It is a cultural thing. The rivalry clearly means more to them. They prepare for it every day, they get blown out by Purdue and look like shit for most of the year, just to ensure they beat us. On top of that we always have dumbass seniors talking shit (Hart, Winovich and a little Higdon) and they NEVER back it up. The “revenge tour canceled” shirts are selling out, here in cbus.....
November 26th, 2018 at 1:28 PM ^
To be fair, Winovich never once said anything about OSU.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:05 AM ^
After last year we said everything would be fine after we got a quarterback and competent OL play.
So after this year all we need is some DTs and and a "gamebreaker."
I can't for the next "all we need is a ____________" after we a find a new and different way to lose next year.
November 26th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
I appreciate you trying to find some optimism here, and to each their own, but my opinion is that it is as bad as it looks. If not worse.
Winning these kinds of games is what Harbaugh was brought in here to do. He was our guy. It's why he's getting paid the amount of money he's getting paid. No, we shouldn't expect him to win every year. Especially not against the likes of Meyer. But he was the guy to get us back, and while you could argue that he should have won once, the fact of the matter is that he's 0-4. Three of the four losses are by double digits, and two of those losses were absolute thumpings. This was Michigan's best team since probably 2006, Meyer's most dysfunctional team since he arrived in Columbus, and we showed over the course of one game that we are not any closer to beating OSU than we were when Harbaugh was hired. The talent level is better now, but something is still woefully wrong when we step onto the same field as those guys. We're out-talented, out-muscled, out-coached, out-schemed, out-everything'd.
For fans who say "what now," you're probably not going to want to hear this, and I wouldn't blame you, but I think its time to re-calibrate the expectations we have of this football team. At least until Meyer retires, that's what I'm doing. After Saturday, I just don't see how we can ever beat them while he's there. Harbaugh is a great coach, but you're dealing with an all-time great in Urban Meyer, and you're also dealing with nearly 20 years of physical, emotional, and psychological beatdowns in this game. There is a deep-seeded psychological advantage OSU has in this game. They go into this game expecting that no matter what, they will win. There is no doubt in their minds. And you see how Meyer coaches this game. He preps his players as if losing means they are heading to the guillotine for a public beheading. His players play against Michigan like their lives are literally on the line.
I hate to say this, but I believe that this is just who we are until the scoreboard says differently. And especially until Meyer retires. Ask Georgia and Florida State fans how they felt about having had to watch their teams go against Meyer. He destroys your season, burns your house down, and pisses on the ashes while you have to sit there and watch it.
November 26th, 2018 at 3:25 PM ^
Yeah, I'm pretty sure I rolled my eyes the whole time. We're in year four, bro. This is Harbaugh
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