The question:

MICHIGAN BASKETBALL 2021 NATIONAL CHAMPIONS HOW ARE WE FEELING

Brian: wellllll, Gonzaga and Baylor are kind of looming.

Seth: They can loom on the other side of the bracket.

Ace: I admit maybe that wasn’t the best way to word that prompt just before the Wisconsin game but they’re rolling.

Seth: I'm trying to reel it back because Michigan hasn't faced Wisconsin or Iowa yet.

Brian: Yes, immediately before the first true stretch five test is a bad time to be making definitive proclamations.

Alex: Well, Ace, I'm excited about our inevitable Rona Final Four.

Ace: MICHIGAN BASKETBALL LEGIT 2021 BIG TEN TITLE CONTENDERS

Brian: That I'm buying, clearly. Michigan/Illinois/Iowa/Wisconsin is going to be a free-for-all, Michigan has a game in the loss column on everyone else, and they have single plays against Illinois and Iowa.

Alex: Michigan may have the most compelling blend of coaching, talent, and kenpom shit in the league. Top 20 on both ends of the floor. Best freshman in the league by a mile. A deep bag of sets and strategies to outfox the competition.

Ace: I do believe this team has national championship upside but part of that is the nature of single-elimination tournaments. The chance to win an outright Big Ten regular season title this year is… almost more impressive, from a purely non-fluke standpoint?

Alex: The lack of depth is a little worrisome in that regard [national title contention] especially with the whole rampaging virus thing but Dickinson's foul avoidance helps allay those concerns.

Seth: The list of guys who are down relative to preseason expectations is...zero? I guess Zeb Jackson but nobody was saying he'd be ready first half of this season.

[After the JUMP: forget about your worries]

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Dayeinu! [Campredon]

Alex: The core rotation has panned out nicely, especially after adjusting on the fly after losing out on Todd and Christopher.

Ace: Depends on what you were expecting out of Brandon Johns but that’s also tied to Dickinson’s emergence and Austin Davis’s injury.

Alex: Speaking of which, I'm not sure that this team is better with Christopher - although his ballhog tendencies might have been mitigated in such an unselfish offense.

Brian: Yeah it's hard to tell what he would look like in a college offense.

Alex: The way this team shares and moves the ball is impressive.

Ace: It worked out well all around, I’d say.

Seth: Did it? How's his brand?

Ace: Shut up, Seth. The NBA does not care, he’s getting to show off his whole skillset. He’s in the same program as his brother.

Seth: Just one shot. Michigan could use his creation but that's been mitigated by Dickinson.

Alex: Probably was gonna be a late first here or there.

Ace: Michigan has Chaundee Brown. Let’s move on!

Alex: Michigan's good at manufacturing shots within the offense, which helps.

Ace: Wagner is also increasingly a creator. He’s got the #20 assist rate in the conference.

Seth: The concern going into the season was Michigan lacked a guy who could put a defense perpetually behind the 8-ball except perhaps Franz. And the reason I thought that is Michigan hasn't had a post offense since the players and I were the same age.

Ace: The maturity of Dickinson’s game is really remarkable. He already shows a strong understanding of when to turn away from double teams, when to attack, and when to pass out.

Alex: His proverbial feel for the game is off the charts. Especially for a freshman. No stupid fouls. Not a black hole in the post (at all).

Brian: Part of my previous dumping on post-ups is that I did not think anything like this was remotely possible.

I still do not think it is possible even as I watch it.

one point three five PPP

Ace: Not including putbacks! Just… bonkers.

Alex: He's like Luka Garza but tall.

-- Fred Jackson

Seth: His game also seems to be evolving at freshman rate. He added elbow jumpers and high hedges recently.

Brian: Iowa is 91st percentile at post+passes efficiency. They are 0.27 PPP(!) worse than Michigan. There is a 27-point efficiency gap between Gonzaga/Iowa, the co-#1 offenses in the country, and #274 North Carolina Central.

Seth: I forgot to add re-posts.

Alex: Iowa seems to go about it a little differently. I think we were all worried that we might have a more rudimentary offense with Howard relative to Beilein, but Michigan finds creative ways to get Dickinson the ball and stress the defense.

Ace: The horns to hi-lo stuff Howard is having them do is so dang difficult to guard.

They have so many options out of those sets and can use just about anyone as the second “big man” popping to the perimeter. They had Eli Brooks in that spot a couple games ago!

Alex: Spain pick-and-roll with Franz popping and Dickinson carving out space down low is really damn hard to guard.

Howard gets players touches with great opportunities for them to score within their skills. You see some classic college basketball continuity sets sometimes, you see some more NBA-style quick hitters, you see wrinkles off of common sets for easy buckets.

Ace: But the RCMB tells me his assistants do all the coaching and he just recruits.

Brian: (Spain PNR:

Alex: I do think that you see the influence of the assistant coaches with some of the old Beilein stuff, zones out of timeouts, and so on.

Ace: Oh, sure, I just find the people who think Howard isn’t an excellent schematic coach funny.

That’s the nicest word I can use for it.

Alex: Tropes on the RCMB? Surely you jest.

Brian: Not so much with the "let's do all my favorite stuff from my 19 year career as an NBA post" items.

I mean obviously the RCMB troglodytes are going to get it wrong but the thing that jumps off the screen to me when I watch most other Big Ten teams play is the number of garbage possessions they get saddled with.

Seth: I see the assistants doing work in the guard play. That or Mike Smith stepped onto the Crisler hardwood and immediately inherited Michigan Point Guard Dawg Powers.

Dog eat hair world. [Campredon]

Brian: Iowa is pretty much the lone exception, even Wisconsin and Illinois are frequently resorting to Star Guard Guy, Please Help Us.

Ace: Michigan is 287th in short shot-clock possessions (<4 seconds), according to Synergy. That’s hard to pull off as a Big Ten team.

Alex: So few bad possessions or bad shots. A lot of that has to do with Dickinson's gravity.

Ace: Nebraska is the only other team in the conference in the ballpark and we know which one it is for them.

Gonzaga, meanwhile, has the second-fewest nationally. They might be good!

Brian: Dickinson's gravity, four shooters surrounding him, the diversity of sets to set up post position that only increase Dickinson's gravity, etc.

Ace:

Alex: Exactly. Plus there's Dickinson's intelligence when it comes to moving the ball and scrambling the defense if he touches it and isn't in position to score.

Ace: Every Northwestern defender in that GIF has at least a foot in the paint or is on the near side. One pump-fake moves a guy three feet the wrong way. That guy allows a three.

Seth: There have been a lot of good long twos as a secondary outlet when the first fails. I think Michigan avoids late clock because the worst result of an offensive action is Livers putting up a 15-footer.

Brian: And Michigan isn't the kind of team that has its defense prop up its offense with a lot of open-court turnovers. Nor do they push the ball in transition that much--194th in shots in the first ten seconds of the clock. So they don't shoot it a ton early, they don't shoot it a ton late, they metronomically execute a complicated half-court offense to generate a ton of great looks.

Juwan Howard is good at this.

Ace: They’re great at early-clock action.

Seth: I want to go back to a football thing about coaching college players, which is you have so little time with them that the greatest coaches are the ones who can get a relatively complex thing into everyone's heads quickly.

Ace: This is so simple and also evil.

Wagner’s defender isn’t even looking at him when the screen is set.

Alex: The best offenses thrive in read-and-react situations - sure, you can scheme up some buckets here and there, but you need the ability to freelance. So few college teams are this good at sharing the ball and creating great looks when the play breaks down.  So often, it's "hey, best player, go do something."

Ace: They have at least three quality options there, too. Let Wagner cook, dump it to Dickinson, or get the ball to Livers if he’s got a guy he can shoot over.

Alex: Smith also can provide a little juice, either on the ball or off the catch. His developing chemistry with Dickinson is a welcome sight.

Ace: I was worried he’d just be a drive-to-pass guy in the Big Ten but he’s shown enough finishing to keep defenses honest.

Seth: Smith's been too hesitant to shoot, which does this thing to my brain that watched Simpson for four years where I'm like "okay pass it wait no big hair shoot aw dammit that's fine too."

Ace: I don’t agree with that take.

Alex: The little guy has some courage and verve. Yeah, I don't either. I think he's been a willing outside shooter, but he's really cut out the "bad calories" from his shot diet.

Seth: This is admittedly nitpick—there are like two per game.

Brian: He takes a couple of stepbacks per game, but as we saw with that assist to Dickinson against Minnesota those aren't just shots to shoot. He's only taking 13.5% of Michigan's shots when he's on the floor, his usage is larger because of assists.

Ace: Yeah, I’m having a hard time coming up with examples of this team taking bad shots across the board. Even the fadeaway midrangers are shots I like.

Brian: When literally no one is shooting <50% on twos and 4-5 guys are 62%+ (depending on whether you include Davis, who doesn't have any usage against B10 teams) there's not much to dislike.

Ace: Some sloppy turnovers and that’s… that’s it, really. Michigan is last in the conference in non-steal turnover rate. Bad news: ugly. Good news: fixable.

Alex: The whole team's shooting a combined 62% on twos. It's about as good as it gets at this level.

Ace: They’re still exploring new stuff, too. The transfer point guard and freshman center are still getting used to this level.

Brian: I mean yeah, the turnovers on both ends are the only major issue. I think we'll see some improvement here but some of Smith's issues are baked in because of his size.

Seth: A lot of those turnovers are things that are easy to correct. Like throwing it out of bounds because you expected a guy to be there, and Smith exploring what he can do when not against Ivy Leaguers. That all goes away naturally.

Ace: Yeah, they’re not gonna cut them down to Beilein-era levels, but I think they’ll be more reasonable. Michigan’s right in the middle of the Big Ten pack in getting the ball stolen. And it’s not like they’re committing shot clock violations. So those dead-ball turnovers really are of the travel/pass it out of bounds variety.

Alex: As far as not generating turnovers, Michigan doesn't run a pack line, but the underlying defensive philosophy of staying sound and funneling opponents into contested twos is there. Consequently, opponents are shooting <40% on twos in conference play and over the whole season. Shooting >60% on twos and holding opponents to <40% on twos is what I like to call Really Cool.

Ace: Part of the low turnover rate is definitely baked in. I do think they’re getting unlucky with Wagner, specifically, getting his hands on a gazillion passes without generating steals.

Michigan only had four steals in that game, none by Wagner, and I had him for three deflections in the first two minutes.

Alex: Likewise, Chaundee's steal rate of 0.6 really undersells things.

Seth: They started hunting picks a little bit more lately. I wonder if the coaches wanted to make sure they had their defense down cold before guys vamped.

Brian: Dickinson's steal rate is 0.4, which is probably the cosmic background steal radiation for anyone who plays a bunch. That's where it should stay. Those Teske/McGary pokes at the ball are far too risky when your C is the hub of your offense.

Ace: Dickinson should keep doing exactly what he’s doing, it’s perfect.

Alex: Yeah Dickinson plays conservatively on defense, and you love to see it. Every freshman big commits stupid fouls except for that guy.

Seth: Another underrated thing about this team that's absolutely incredible.

Ace: I don’t think this team needs to take many risks, their length and athleticism plus sticking with guys is going to generate a certain number of turnovers.

Alex: And Juwan favored drop coverage, even with Teske. Sometimes opponents will force a change there, but keeping the huge dude around the basket is generally a smart strategy.

Most of the guys Hunter’s guarded thus far aren’t able to get around the “is 7’1” thing. [Campredon]

Seth: We haven't seen Dickinson go against one of the Big B1G Bigs yet, unless you count Minnesota's Liam Robbins.

Ace: The schedule has been a concern. They’ve done as well as one could hope with it but it’s lacked the top tier.

That changes Tuesday, obviously.

Brian: Micah Potter last year: 25 minutes, 36% usage, 18 points on 12 shot equivalents.  3/6 from 3.

Ace: This matchup would’ve terrified me before Dickinson started showing enough defensive mobility to hedge and recover. Those bigs need space to pull. Now it merely frightens me greatly.

Seth: I'm mentally prepared to get a rude awakening from having to chase Potter to the perimeter, not to mention the upcoming paint battles with Cockburn and Garza. The hedging was so unscouted that it surprised Minnesota. He's not going to be Jon Teske overnight. Unless he is.

Ace: It’s not as much about the results as that he’s physically capable. You have to project at some point. I agree they’ll run into a bad game or three; it’s also remarkable they’ve won even their stinkers so far. He’s already much better than Teske.

Brian: Also Teske's the guy who got roasted in this matchup last year?

Seth: I want it on the record I meant that as a hedger. And yeah, five-out was Michigan's kryptonite last year.

Ace: MICHIGAN BIG TEN CHAMPIONS YES OR NO MEET ME IN THE OCTAGON YOU COWARDS

I’m getting my “yes” on the record first.

Seth: Yes, but the refs stole it from Rutgers.

Ace: The schedule helps but I also think this is the best team in the league.

Brian: I might say they're the most likely to win, but I wouldn't put that shot >50%. So no, I guess.

Ace: COWARD

Totally fair take.

Sorry.

Seth: My take is mostly about Michigan having the easier path and starting from a better spot. All these teams can eat each other alive.

Brian: Beating Wisconsin might flip that to >50%.

Ace: COMMIT YOU COWARD

sorry sorry

Brian: The worst part is that I can hear your Fuegobox Hot Take(tm) voice in my head.

Ace: ba ba ba ba ba basketball.