hunter dickinson

On November 16, 2021, the University of Michigan gave a five-year extension to Men's Basketball Head Coach Juwan Howard, something your author called "a no brainer". At the time, Michigan was #4 in the country, 2-0 on the young season after knocking off Buffalo and Prairie View A&M. To that point, Howard's record as Michigan's head coach was 44-17, coming off a Big Ten regular title and an Elite Eight appearance. The team he was coaching was hyped, with sky high expectations following 2020-21's roaring success and adding a recruiting class that public scouting services loved. It all made sense. After all, Michigan Men's Basketball had established itself as a giant of the B1G over the preceding decade, winning three regular season titles and two conference tournament titles, making the Sweet 16 six times, the Elite Eight four times, and the Final Four twice. 

That night, after the extension was announced, Michigan played host to a so-so Seton Hall team that would make the NCAAs as an eight seed. They lost that game, the first sign that the 2021-22 team was perhaps not going to be what the expectations have conveyed. In hindsight, it was the beginning of a larger slide into despair for the Michigan program. Beginning with that game, the men's basketball team is 43-47 in their past 90 games, leading up to the present. They slipped into the NCAA Tournament as an 11 seed, then missed the tournament the following season, culminating in this year, when Michigan is 8-16 and has a chance to be the first Michigan team to win only single digit games in four decades.

How did it all collapse so quickly? Today we will look back through the journey and perhaps glean some overarching lessons on where and how it all went wrong: 

[AFTER THE JUMP: How it all went wrong]

Michigan picked up a commitment today from transfer cornerback Josh Wallace of UMass. A grad transfer, Wallace will join the team in fall camp and compete for a spot in the rotation at corner during his final season of NCAA eligibility. Let's give him a hello: 

GURU RATINGS

UMass, eh? Wallace's recruiting profile back when he was coming out of high school was more or less "not applicable". Only 247 bothered to rank him and so we weren't able to get a composite/consensus ranking on Wallace. As you'd expect, Wallace registered as a low 3*, 67th out of 75 corners in our database dating back to 1990. But of course he's not coming to Michigan as a high schooler, he's arriving as a molded four year college player. As a transfer, 247 still has him ranked as a 3* but his rating is up to 88 from 84, showing the strides he made from UMass. The point about this paragraph is simply that Wallace is not your blue chip burning out at one program and going to a new one sort of transfer portal kid. Which you probably knew the moment you heard "transferring from UMass". 

[AFTER THE JUMP: takes, game tape, and a projection]

We didn't post the Dickinson news on Friday because at first it was not immediately clear that his entrance into the portal was indeed a final exit. Since then, the response from the program indicates the finality and warranted a post and as I was planning to make one up, we got news of Kobe Bufkin's departure. So, let's do them together. From Friday: 

Michigan’s Hunter Dickinson has hit the transfer portal, he told @stadium.

HUGE NEWS!!!

— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) March 31, 2023

And from a few minutes ago: 

🚨 Roster News 🚨

G Kobe Bufkin has elected to forgo his remaining eligibility and enter the 2023 NBA Draft.#GoBlue ➡️ #ProBlue pic.twitter.com/Iayy9tghyl

— Michigan Men's Basketball (@umichbball) April 2, 2023

The insiders were reporting a couple weeks ago that Juwan Howard was trying to push his players for earlier decisions this season after Caleb Houstan and Moussa Diabate took their NBA conundrum down to the wire last season. It appears the players responded, but none of them gave him the answer he likely wanted. These two players join Jett Howard in departing Michigan Men's Basketball and in the process, it deprives the team of the three main engines of offense throughout the season. 

The Dickinson exit is the most surprising, something that insiders (presumably from coaching sources) were vehemently dismissing the possibility of basically up until it happened. That it leaked out to a reporter and not from a player who has let the world know what he thinks about just about everything is doubly surprising. Over three seasons at Michigan, Dickinson was All-B1G every year, B1G Freshman of the Year in 2021, and a consensus All-American once. He was the face of the program over the past two seasons and never missed the opportunity to play the villain to opposing fans. Where Dickinson lands is unknown right now but presumably it will be a place that can offer a hefty NIL package and the chance to win big. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Bufkin's departure had been suspected for some time. A highly touted recruit in the 2021 class, Bufkin struggled his first season in Ann Arbor, rarely seeing the floor for more than a few minutes at a time due to atrocious defense, something he acknowledged in the offseason. Bufkin put in plenty of work and made a sizable sophomore leap, all the way up to All-B1G honors. His MPG clip went from 10.8 to 34.0, his three point clip from 22.2% to 35.5%, and points per game from 3.0 to 14.0. As the season rolled along, Bufkin became a larger piece of the offense and while he did have some tough moments here and there, he was making his case to be recognized as the team's best player. This rapid improvement gained interest from NBA scouts, which left Bufkin with a choice: stay and go for the top 10 of the draft in 2024, or leave now and be a first rounder somewhere in the 20s. He has evidently opted for the latter.  

In losing Howard, Dickinson, and Bufkin, Michigan has officially lost 60.3% of its points from last season. Joey Baker continues to pursue a waiver from the NCAA to play another season but the current reporting is that it is an uphill battle ($). If that is the case, Michigan could be looking at replacing 68% of its scoring. The true impact to the offense is even larger, though, as anyone who watched the team knows that the outputs of Baker and everyone else, be it Dug McDaniel or Terrance Williams II, revolved around the three departing players, who were the team's most important offensive pieces. Returning McDaniel and Tarris Reed Jr. gives Michigan a couple useful cogs in building a future defense, but with these three departures, they are essentially starting over on offense. 

Michigan has now lost those three players, plus Isaiah Barnes, off the team. They added Nimari Burnett this week, an upgrade if viewed as a Barnes replacement, but much more portal hunting will be required. Michigan plans to bring in two recruits, George Washington III and Papa Kante, and then will fill the rest of the slots on the roster from the portal. It will not be the easiest endeavor in the world, both landing quality players out of the portal and then ensuring that those quality players fit together to produce a winning roster next season. It's going to be a fascinating next few weeks, a series of roster decisions and recruiting battles out of the portal that may well decide whether Juwan Howard survives as Michigan Men's Basketball coach. Stay tuned.