Some people are in such utter darkness that they will burn you just to see a light. Try not to take it personally. -Dr. Kamand Kojouri [Bryan Fuller]

Upon Further Review 2021: Defense vs MSU Comment Count

Seth November 5th, 2021 at 8:30 AM

Formation Notes: Michigan started in 6-1-4 personnel.

image

They also used more split formations with both DTs in the A gaps and Hutchinson way out over the TE.

image

Substitution Notes: I couldn’t keep up. The six-man line went Ojabo-Jenkins-Hinton-Smith-Welschof-Hutchinson. The interior got a ton of rotation, while Hutchinson and Ojabo got the majority of the snaps at OLB. Ross was ever-present while Colson and NHG split the WLB snaps about 60-40. Turner started over Green but Green got plenty of go; Turner returned after going out for what appeared to be his wind knocked out.

On the subject of officiating, especially holding: My goal with this exercise is to get at the why of the game, particularly which *Michigan* players did well, and which coaching decisions bore fruit. Usually in the process I call out uncalled penalties that directly affected the play to explain my charting. Regular readers understand that it’s part of the game, and it excites little comment.

This game was unlike any I’ve ever charted; it was clear from the 2nd snap that what normally gets called holding wasn’t going to be. This also became apparent to the players (one in particular) who did as competitive athletes are wont. That’s a problem for me, because if I were to grade like I do normally, I’d end up with a very bad look, a lot of people would end up very mad, and there is just way too much good Halloween candy left for that to be healthy for any of us.

I know lots of Michigan fans want to know how bad it was, and that certain insecure elements of the MSU fanbase are just waiting to pounce on any sign that Michigan fans won’t acknowledge their win’s legitimacy. Validating either of these parties is not what UFR is for. So for this week, we're going to skip “refs” events in the charting, and things are just not going to add up. We will talk about some of the reviews at the end.

[After THE JUMP: Tackle rotation, no explanation.]

Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Pistol Trips 2TE 6-1-4 6-1 Odd 2 Pass 4 PA Zip Out Morris 16 1.42
I think this one is on Turner(-2, cov-2) in cov2 because he brackets the #1 for so long that Dax has to be well atop him by now. It might also be RPS if they're running some kind of man2 shell that asks Morris to cover the flat but guessing that's not it. Inauspicious beginning for your chart guy here.
O41 1st 10 Pistol Bone 6-1-4 6-1 Odd 2 Run   Split Zone Ross 8 1.00
I'm not going to make it through this game if this is how they call holding. Hinton has a double stood up until he's wrenched pretty badly by the shoulderpads. Jenkins(-0.5) is getting cracked and doesn't get into the FB aggressively enough, also gets held. Hutchinson is having a similar issue when he tries to disengage and pursue. Ross(-1) now has to deal with the other guy and doesn't shoot in the gap aggressively enough. Hill(+0.5, tackling+1) came down to stop this quickly.
O49 2nd 2 Pistol F Y-Flex 6-1-4 6-1 Odd 2 Run   Lead Stretch Morris 7 0.24
Tempo(35). Morris(-1) is unsure how to play this, watching the outside TE's inside shoulder, probably because he's got a coverage responsibility, when his best shot in this gap is to shoot into the FB and set an edge. Once he engages that guy grabs his collar and rips him down which ends the stretch dance and creates an edge before Hawkins(-1) can arrive. Ross(-1) went on the wrong side of the center and got himself hooked inside. Jenkins also got sealed inside and Hinton got jerked back and put his hands up to try to get it seen.
M44 1st 10 Pistol Bone 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 2 Pass 5 TE Out Ross 3 -0.32
PR-1 gets nowhere as both TEs chip the ends then go into short routes, but they are short routes. Ross(+2, cov+1, tackling+1) shoots up as this is released and brings the TE down at the LOS. The guy is fighting for yards and falls forward for one more, but is ruled down where he caught it, a few more yards downfield.
M41 2nd 7 Pistol Str 5-1-5 5-1 Under 1 Run   Split Zone Smith 2 -0.58
Smith(-1) gets moved out by a double that gets all the way to Ross(-1), Morris(+2) and Jeter(+2) both fight their way to the gap and stop Walker there.
M39 3rd 5 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 Pass 4 Fade Moten INT -2.71
Hutchinson(+2, PR+2) breaks through inside the LT who has grab pad to prevent an insta-sack. Thorne has to get rid as there's no pocket anymore, chucks up a punt that Moten(+3, Cov+3) is bracketing and intercepts. FWIW the EPA difference between intercepting and knocking it down is negligible because 4th and 5 from the 39 is a go-for-it down so Moten gets full points.
Drive Notes: Interception. 0-0. 12 min 1st Q. Not sure I can take a whole game of this.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Offset Wk 4-2-5 Nk Splits 2 RPO   Duo/Slants Colson 3 -0.30
Smith(-1) again ejected by a double but Hinton stands up to his. Colson(+2, tackling+1) takes away the bigger gap, Ross stays home in his, and Walker has to cut back inside to try to power something out, Colson gives up no YAC.
O28 2nd 7 Offset Str 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 Pass 4 Sack Morris -6(Pen+21) 1.91
Smith(+1) beats the LT and gets upfield while Morris(-2) went upfield vs the RB and TE and got pushed too deep. Would be a good pass rush but he reaches out and gets Thorne's facemask then yanks hoping the refs are asleep. They're not.
O43 1st 10 Pistol Trips 2TE 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 2 Run   Zone Read Ross 1 -0.93
Smith(+1) stands up the double this time. Walker could take 2-3 yards as Ross is filling carefully but tries to bounce instead and Jenkins(+1) hops up instantly to prove that a bad decision.
O44 2nd 9 Gun Trips Tight 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Pass 4 Slip Screen Ross Inc -0.93
You can hear Michigan's sideline yelling "Screen!" before the snap (RPS+2) and Ross(+1) dutifully cuts off his blitz, collects Walker, and hangs on his hip. Thorne rolls but Hinton and Ojabo(+0.5) are giving chase, the former delayed just enough that Thorne can throw it away as he's running OOB.
O44 3rd 9 Gun wk Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Wide C 1 Pass 4 Slant Turner Inc -0.67
Live I thought it was just a bad throw but this Aidan Hutchinson(+2) slappy thinks he deserves credit for staying up when the LT tries to cut him then sticking his paw in the throwing lane. Thorne has to throw it high and inside, and it misses Reed who was open at the sticks beneath Turner(-1, Cov-1).
Drive Notes: Punt. 7-0. 11 min 1st Q. Screen screams.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O19 1st 10 Pistol Wk Bunch Z Jet 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 Run   X Lead Counter Ross 4 -0.08
Hutchinson gets the FB, throws him off, but then the guy form tackles him at the waist. Hinton(+1) holds up a double long enough for Colson to cross the T and Ross(+1) to slip in for the tackle despite taking a shove in the back as he's doing so.
O23 2nd 6 Pistol F Str 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 Play-Action 3 Scramble Hutchinson 22 2.25
I can be hard on my fav too you know. Three-man rush gets close but Morris(-1) gets ripped down by the LT and Smith(-1) gets too far upfield without checking that lane. That should be fine but Hutchinson(-2) followed the RB all the way out to Hill instead of banjoing back to his zone. Ross has to check the FB and the QB, takes the FB, Thorne runs for a chunk.
O45 1st 10 Gun Str 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 RPO   IZ/Slants Jeter 3 -0.42
Jeter(+2) is singled and gets his long arms into the RG's pads to bend him behind the LOS. Hawkins(+0.5, RPS+1) is coming down in a hurry but isn't needed as Jeter gets an arm across the RB's waist and the other hand around his ankle and ends it himself. Jeter!!!
O48 2nd 7 Pistol Twins 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 2 Pass 5 TE Out Gray 2 -0.67
PR-1 again doesn't get much as M is expecting a run here, but Thorne throws it low to a TE and Gray(+1, cov+1) was in position to hold it to a short gain if the throw doesn't put him on the ground first.
50 3rd 5 Gun Trips 4-2-5 Nk Wide AB 2 Pass 5 Slip Screen Hill INT -5.82
Screen guy is yelling again, is right again, but Ross might be a bit late getting out there from where he was threatening blitz. We'll never know because Hill(+2, RPS+1) has blitzed into the throwing lane; the ball caroms off his helmet to Morris(+1) who catches it, runs into the OL, then hangs onto the ball for four full seconds after his forward momentum has stopped that the refs give MSU to try to pry it loose. #75 uses the time to (legally, since the whistle hasn't blown) yank Morris's ankle from under the pile. Interesting look at what goes on in a pile. Outside of all this the LT gets big mad, takes some free shots at Ross, gets flagged.
Drive Notes: Interception. 7-0. 4 min 1st Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Pistol 2TE Twins 6-1-4 6-1 Over 2 Pass 4 Flag Gray 19 1.71
Michigan goes back to the 6 lineman thing and it's a bad idea. MSU finds plenty of room to throw underneath a bailing Gray(-2, Cover-3) and get some YAC. RPS-1, PR-1 since they've got four DTs rushing.
O44 1st 10 Pistol F Str 4-2-5 Nk Splits 1 Pass 4 Hook Hill 16 1.18
Hill(-2, cov-2) is glued to a WR who's now well into Ross's zone, doesn't help when Green calls for it. Hutchinson took a wide angle pass rush that can be stepped up around because Smith got no push on a double (PR-1).
M40 1st 10 Gun wk Y-Flex 4-2-5 Unset 1 Pass 4 RB Flare Ross Inc 0.89
Tempo(35). Michigan is trying to change as MSU is going tempo, has 13 players on the field at the snap (RPS-3). They're also not set, Ross(-1, cov-1) is going to be very late getting out on a flare to the opposite side of the bench if it's not badly thrown. What are we doing? Call Timeout!!!
M35 1st 5 Gun Wk 4-2-5 4-3 Over 1 RPO   IZ/Slants Welschof 2 -0.44
Welschof(+2) gets moved by a double then splits it and rips his way back into the gap to stuff, as soon as half of it leaves to grab Colson.
M33 2nd 3 Pistol 2TE Twins 5-2-4 5-2 Split 1 Play-Action n/a PA FB Flat Hill 6 0.00
Hill(-2, cov-2) gets rubbed by Ross stepping down and has to spin off to track the FB across the formation, gets caught way behind. NHG(+1, tackling+1) actually makes it all the way down to stop it first. Hutchinson(-0.5) could help with a chip but only gives a little one because he wants to get his mitts in the way of the pass. Worthy gamble, fails.
M27 1st 10 Pistol Bone 6-1-4 6-1 Odd 2 Run   Counter T Fold Hawkins 27 2.69
LT folds in and they have both TEs replacing outside. Welschof(-2, tackling-2) got around his blocker and that should be enough to stuff this but he gambles on a diving tackle attempt instead of staying in his lane, and misses. Walker hits the pile where Hinton(+2) has fought through, but he can't quite make the tackle with #75 jumping on his back. Hutchinson shed the FB to set up in the gap that Juice abandoned, but now there's nobody between the FB and a WR who's got Gray locked out in a way that makes the Anthony call rankle. Nobody safety home because Hawkins(-3) came up on the other side to help when he thought this was buried in the backfield. Also Walker is dropping the ball a millisecond before going into the endzone but they decide not to apply the WORST RULE IN FOOTBALL.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 10-7. 14 min 2nd Q. Yeesh.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Offset Trips Y-Flex 6-1-4 5-1 Over 2 Run   Zone Read Hutchinson 18 1.61
We've got Aidan out in the slot now. He's read but Michigan is slanting frontside and asking for this. I hate that I have to RPS+1 this because Walker has to bounce into the space the QB didn't run and now Hutchinson(-3) is heading inside. What he isn't however is a linebacker, and he sets up too close in for how Walker can bounce, especially when Ross is his help inside. Walker bounces, and now we're edged by the best RB in the country. Hawkins(-2, tackling-1) comes up but too far inside when he's got Green to help, and can't make the tackle either. Green(+1, tackling+1) gets him down with no more YAC.
O43 1st 10 Pistol F Wk 4-2-5 Nk Wide 2 Run   G Fold Lead Ross 9 1.28
They switch to a Pistol right before the snap, Michigan has a blitz on that delivers Ross(-3, tackling-2) right to Walker (RPS+2). If he slows here Ojabo(+1) has set a good edge and it's over. Now there's a lane as Hinton(+0.5) and Smith(+1) fight back against Gs with fistfuls of sleeves. Moten(+1) comes down and gets a dive at Walker's legs to hold this down.
M48 2nd 1 Pistol Str 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 Play-Action n/a Rollout Hitch Hutchinson Inc -1.34
Attacking the space under Cov3 here with a FB zip route if that's covered, but Hutchinson(+3, PR+2) takes both away, getting outside to pressure the rollout, and batting the pass.
M48 3rd 1 Pistol Wk 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 1 Run   Arc Read T Fold Hawkins 0 -1.18
Michigan blows this play up (RPS+2) by crashing Ojabo inside the arc to force a give and replacing with Hawkins(+1), who strings it out to the sideline for no gain.
M48 4th 1 Pistol 2TE 5-2-4 6-3 Splits 0 Play-Action   PA Seam Green 40 3.38
Zero coverage and Green(-3, cov-4) lets his WR go for no good reason. Hill(-1, tackling+2) was nominally the single high guy and doesn't see the release until it's too late. He does prevent this from being a TD. RPS-1 since Hill is stretched, but Green should be on his man. Some of our guys are going to the bench...
M8 1st Goal Pistol 2TE 5-2-4 Unset 2 Run   Lead Stretch Hawkins 8 2.27
Tempo(30) and again they catch Michigan trying to change. RPS-3, Morris(-1) is offsides, Hawkins(-1) is looking at those guys instead of the play coming at him, Smith(+1) productively runs at the line and takes out a blocker while Ojabo is in his gap but 75 has his shoulderpads and for a second I think they're calling that. They spend a lot of time talking afterwards for an offsides.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 13-14. 7 mins 2nd Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O10 1st 10 Pistol F Str 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 Run   Down C Lead Ojabo 0 -0.35
They try to go frontside but Hutchinson(+1) has set up a roadblock, and Ross(+1) and Colson(+1) have him corralled. He switches direction, past where 75 has tackled Hinton by the shoulderpads, to where Ojabo(+2) shoots up and ends this in the backfield.
O10 2nd 10 Gun Str 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 Pass 5 RB Flat Ross 14 1.00
Ross is actually the blitzer, Hutchinson(+2, PR+2) is around the LT but can't sack because dude's got the 9 of Aidan's 97 pulled all the way over his shoulder. Nobody has the RB (Cov-2, RPS-2) unless Colson is supposed to leave his TE to Moten or something so this gets the first and extra.
O24 1st 10 Pistol F Wk 4-2-5 Nk Wide 2 Pass 4 Sack Hutchinson -2(Pen-8) -1.03
Nobody open for a beat (Cov+1) and now Hutchinson(+3, PR+2) is around, held, sacks, and *then* they throw the first holding flag on MSU of the game. Not even a really bad one TBH.
O14 1st 20 Gun Trips Tight 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 Pass 4 Bubble Screen Hill 0 -0.13
They try to edge Dax Hill(+2). It doesn't go well for them as he gathers both blockers and Nailor into a little pile three yards in the backfield so Moten(+1, tackling+1) can clean up.
O14 2nd 20 Pistol F Str 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Pass 4 Strip Sack Ojabo -14 -0.10
Ojabo(+3, PR+3) puts a move on the RT, blindsides the QB, strips the ball, and Hutchinson falls on it for a touchdown.

Drive Notes: Defensive Touchdown. 27-14. 1 mi--

WTF????
O3 3rd 31 Gun wk Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 Run   ZR Duo Smith 2 0.40
Smith(+2) and Hinton(+1) keep their doubles on the LOS, play gets to Hutchinson(+1) who both-sides the LT and brings this down for a loss.
Drive Notes: Punt. 20-14. 1:31 2nd Q. At least the Big Ten has apologized. Next MSU drive is a kneeldown so we'll pick up after I take a long ass walk.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O40 1st 10 Offset F Str 4-2-5 Nk Over 1 Play-Action 4 PA Scramble Hutchinson 10(Pen-10) -1.95
PA sucks up the LBs for a second but it doesn't matter since Hutchinson(+2, PR+2) got through inside, gets big held while trying to sack, and draws a flag. Thorne scrambles for a few that I'm not charting against because every M player knows it's coming back and is just trying to cause (another) fumble.
O30 1st 20 Offset Wk 4-2-5 Nk Splits 1 Run   Inside Zone Hawkins 0 -0.38
Hawkins(+3, tackling+1, RPS+1) rolls down and shoots the gap this is attacking. Ojabo(+0.5) is outside to make sure there's no bouncing out of it.
O30 2nd 20 Offset Wk Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Pass 4 Flare Screen Moten -3 -0.24
Hutchinson(+3) and an unblocked Ross are in the backfield but that's the point because it’s a screen and Ross is removed (RPS-1). Aidan gets his hand right where the pass needs to go and the resulting upfield throw puts Walker on the ground in the backfield. Moten(+0.5) was charging back down, and Dax(+0.5) was shooting into his block so this might have been stuffed even with Ross.
O27 3rd 23 Gun Bone 4-2-5 Nk Even 1 Pass 4 Deep Out Turner Inc 0.32
Turner(+2, cov+2) is in zone and never gives up outside leverage, so when this does turn in he's in perfect position for a leaping PBU. Reed goes begging for a phantom PI, because that's the only thing that could save his route.
Drive Notes: Punt. 23-14. 10 min 3rd Q. M scores to go up 30-14. See the Callah together now.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O3 1st 10 Pistol Ace Twins 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 2 Pass 4 Out Turner Inc(Pen+13) 2.00
Cheap player selling, bad ref buying. Turner(+1, cov+1) has position outside, the WR crosses behind and jerks his head back to sell a grab, as DJ's gets *both* hands in front to go for the ball. Not dinging Turner for that. (cover image)
O38 1st 10 Pistol Str 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 Run   ZR Counter GT Colson 5 0.11
Might be trouble as M has the DTs pinching and DEs flaring (RPS-1) which opens up this gap. Ojabo(-1) flies and gets pushed by Walker but Colson(+2) managed to come down and pop the RT as he arrives, convincing Walker to go inside instead of bouncing. There's no Ross(-1) to help there since he's getting yanked good by the LT, but Smith(+1) managed to fight back and help Colson hold this down.
O43 2nd 5 Offset Wk Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 Pass 4 Comeback Turner 7 1.00
Tempo(34). Ojabo(+1, PR+1) spins inside the LT and chases Thorne from the pocket. He throws a perfect ball to Reed with Turner(+1, cov+1) all over his back and also trying to catch it, and Reed manages to tip it to himself, catch, and drag a foot. Tip your hat play.
50 1st 10 Gun Empty 5-1-5 5-1 Under 1 Pass 4 Back Shoulder Fade Gray 15 0.87
Clean pocket (PR-1) for a beat and that's enough for Thorne to throw short at Reed, who catches it off the bounce. Live and in two replay angles it hits dirt, one angle it looks it might plausibly be a catch if you *really* wish hard enough, so they overturn. Always watch these in real time.
M35 1st 10 Pistol Twins 5-2-4 5-2 Over 1 Run   Duo Hinton 3 -0.22
DTs are pinched and MSU doubles both of them. Hinton(+0.5) stands up, Smith(+1) does too, NHG(+0.5) flies up to deter a bounce in the hole, Jenkins(+1) discarded a TE, and Walker runs into the pile then wiggles for a smidge more.
M32 2nd 7 Offset Twins 5-2-4 5-3 Over 1 Pass 4 Curl Ross 3 -0.25
Hutchinson(+1, PR+1) is piloting the LT, who's got two fistfuls of shoulders, toward the QB, who gets spooked and throws near the ground to a guy at 3 yards. Ross(-1, cov-1) was hanging high so a good throw might get a 1st.
M29 3rd 4 Offset Y-Flex 5-2-4 Not Set 1 Pass 3 RB Flare Hutchinson 0 -0.87
Tempo (30). Michigan is still getting organized when they snap it but maybe it's a ruse because they've got three guys dropping into the spot where the TE Thorne wants set up. (RPS+1 I guess). Next read is Walker in the flat but Hutchinson(+2) is breaking on that, sets an edge, and then he and Ross(+0.5) and NHG(+0.5) finish the job for a TFL. Might have lucked into something there, unless Macdonald set this up.
M29 4th 4 Gun Wk 5-1-5 5-1 Odd 2 Pass 4 Slot Fade Hill 28 3.37
Theirs worked, ours didn't. Ross(+1, PR+1) blitzes and gets around Walker and Hutchinson is coming around so they only have time for this. It's thrown perfectly and Hill(-1, cov-1) is behind by a step but NFL throw wins. Gah.
M1 1st Goal Offset Wk 5-1-5 Goal Line NA Run       1 0.89
Tempo(27). All kinds of movement as the LT isn't on the LOS and inches up, RG is still pointing when they snap. Morris(+1) breaks through and gets ahold of Walker but Smith(-1) got knocked back and they push over the goal line.
M3 2PC Goal Offset Str 5-2-4 Goal Line NA Pass 4 Levels Hill 3 1.05
Another dead on throw with Ojabo(+1, PR+1) harassing and Hill(-1, cov-1) just enough behind that they can fit it in. Results-based.
Drive Notes: Touchdown (2pt). 30-22. 4 min 3rd Q. Bullshit bullshit tip your cap repeat.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O14 1st 10 Offset Wk 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 Play-Action 4 Flea Flicker Turner Inc -0.42
Hutchinson(+1, PR+1) leaps inside the RT and is on his way to sack but trips over Walker's feet. That allows Thorne to roll and try to find something, more time because Hinton's getting yanked by 75 and can't pursue for a few seconds. Turner(-1, cov+2) has been on his guy this whole time but that guy executes a nifty spin move, push off, and is about to make a great play but is overthrown.
O14 2nd 10 Pistol Bone 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 2 Play-Action 4 Dig Smith Inc -0.19
Hutchinson(-1, PR-1) gets run out but Smith(+2) has dropped into the throwing lane and bats the throw (RPS+1, Cov+2). A little bit more carom and it's a pick because lots of Wolverines here.
O14 3rd 10 Gun Empty 4-2-5 4-3 Wide 1 Pass 4 Tunnel Screen Ross 11 1.19
They're in Cov2 and man I wish he could get his mitts up here. RPS-1 as Hill is way up and Ross(-1, Cov-1) is helping to pack the inside. Turner(-1, tackling-1) has a chance to bring him down short of the sticks for maybe a punt but he tries to arm it instead of hopping up, gets his leg tangled with Hutchinson, and Reed can spin through for the first down. Turner is hurt after, might be wind knocked out?
O25 1st 10 ??? 4-2-5 Nk ??? 1 Pass 4 FB Slip Screen Smith Inc -0.70
Fox(-4) sneaks in a commercial for injury so we come back late to this play. Smith(+1) smells a rat and backs up to contest the screen, which is then dropped.
O25 2nd 10 Offset F Wk 4-2-5 Nk Split 2 Pass 4 Hitch Green 6 0.17
Hitch under Cov 2 is usually a coverage push if it's four yards but this is six so Green(-0.5, cov-push, tackling-0.5) there is that fair?
O31 3rd 4 Offset Str 4-2-5 Nk Even 2 Pass 4 Curls Ross 4 1.37
Ojabo(+2, PR+2) is instantly inside the LT who tackles him as he's harassing Thorne's throw with his free hand. That throw is on the money to the FB with Ross taking him down short of the sticks. FB reaches out as his knee hits, is probably short, but they give it to him.
O35 1st 10 Pistol Wk 4-2-5 Nk Split 1 Pass 4 Fade Moten Inc -1.01
Ojabo(+2, PR+2) comes around instantly and hits Thorne as he's throwing a bad read that Moten(+2,Cov+2) should intercept. There are lots to pick from but this is the one I think I'd like to have back.
O35 2nd 10 Pistol Bone 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 2 Run   ZR Counter GT Jenkins 7 0.46
Jenkins(-2) fooled by the zone read, Harrell(+0.5) pinches the TE kicking him to restrict space and Hill(+1, tackling+1) makes a hard stop after 7 yards.
O42 3rd 3 Pistol F Y-Flex 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 1 Run   Lead Stretch Jenkins 58 5.74
Tempo(32). Disaster. Jenkins(-3) gets upfield instead of staying on his guy's shoulder, which you CANNOT do against stretch, but that should only be a first down as Ross is...Ross is.... ...okay Ross is getting grabbed by grabbypants. Hawkins(-2) takes a bad angle, Turner gets tugged off his pursuit by a CB who then looks back like "not me" and this is believed.
M3 2PC Goal Empty Diamond 6-2-3 Goal Line NA Pass 4 Fade Turner 3 1.05
So they cut away for a commercial and didn't show this on the broadcast until a drive later but it wasn't a catch. They set up in goal line, call a timeout, and when they come back M is in goal line personnel, MSU flips to a spread and throws a fade at Turner. WR comes down with it but Turner(+2, cov+2) rips it out as they're going to the ground. By NCAA rules (pg 33) it's not a catch. Doesn't matter today except to explain why Turner got his +2.
Drive Notes: Touchdown (2pt). 30-30. 12 min 4th Q.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O25 1st 10 Pisol Wk Tight Z Motion 4-2-5 4-3 Split 2 Run   X Lead Counter Colson 8 0.91
Smith is pinching (RPS-1) and goes down as the RG releases on Ross(-1) who gets beaten back. Colson stalemates the RT to take away the gap the lead blocker went in. Could get ugly but Hinton(+0.5) worked back and Moten(+0.5, tackling+1) came down to stick to prevent a first down.
O33 2nd 2 Pistol F Str 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 2 Play-Action 4 Sack Hutchinson 0 -1.91
An incredibly athletic sack by Hutchinson(+3, PR+2) vs a rollout. He corrals, doesn't bite on a pump fake, and finishes the job himself.
O26 3rd 9 Gun Wk 4-2-5 Nk Wide BA 2 Pass 4 Sack Ojabo 0 0.07
Everybody's covered(Cov+2) which gives Ojabo(+3, PR+2) time to come around back and bat the ball out of Thorne's hands. LT falls on it.
Drive Notes: Punt. 33-30. 8 min 4th Q. Their fumble falls to them. Then our fumble falls to them, and they have it at the M41.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
M41 1st 10 Pistol Bone 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 2 Run   ZR Counter GT Jenkins 4(Pen-12) -2.03
Jenkins(+2) beats back the LT who's grabbing both shoulderpads like always and takes him down, drawing...a flag!!!! It also ate up the lead blocker. Ross(+1, tackling-1) gets skinny through the commotion and nearly brings down Walker in the backfield, at which point the flag comes out (funny how they're only called on already-TFLs). Walker breaks that tackle however, Hutchinson(-1) misses him too, and finally Hinton(+1) stops this nonsense. Ha ha you had to take away yards with the flag afterall!
O49 1st 20 Pistol F Wk 4-2-5 Nk Over 2 Run   Stretch C Fold Colson 1 -0.37
Looks dangerous as Hinton(-1) gives up ground then gets yanked by his collar by 75 while occupying the C as well. This leaves Colson(+2) vs the FB whom he cuts inside then sticks the RB near the LOS with help from Ojabo(+1) the edge-setter.
M48 2nd 17 Gun wk Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 Pass 4 Hitch Hill 9 0.93
Ojabo(+1, PR+1) loops in but this is a quick throw under cov3 (RPS-1) that Hill(-1, tackling-1) allows to turn into a 9-yard gain by not getting out hard enough so the guy tips a few down the sideline until he meets Gray.
M39 3rd 8 Gun wk Y-Flex 4-2-5 Nk Under 2 Pass 4 Free Fade Turner Pen+5 1.07
Morris(-1) jumps offsides so they get a free chuck down the sideline that Turner(+1, cov+1) has handled.
M34 3rd 3 Wildcat 5-1-5 5-1 Over 1 Run   QB Power GT Ross 6 0.87
Ojabo(-1) gets kicked so there's a gap. Ross(+1) gets around the T who released on him, shoulders the puller who meets him, and gets plowed over by Walker. RPS-1 there are no LBs to funnel to because they're playing 5-1.
M28 1st 10 Pistol F Stron 4-2-5 Unset 1 Run   Stretch C Fold Whittley 2(Pen+5) 0.70
Tempo(34). OMIGOD why are we doing this again? Michigan is trying to run their 400-pound NT on the field and Whittley(+1) comically dives through this and takes Walker down for a minimal gain, but it's still 5 yards for an illegal substitution. RPS-3. THREE TIMES! Also Morris has Walker in a choke hold after this play. Should have been a 15-yard penalty and should be suspended for it for Indiana.
M23 1st 5 Pistol Ace Twins 5-2-4 5-2 Odd 2 Play-Action 4 Rollout Hitch Hill Inc -0.62
Hutchinson(+1, PR+1) around, and Whittley(+0.5) gets a shot to try to knock it out. Welschof(-1) has a chance to sack but goes up instead. Maybe that deters a throw? Thorne now exits, helped by Jeter getting held by the RG. NHG(+0.5) pursues, and then Hill(+2, cov+3) bats away a sideline attempt.
M23 2nd 5 Pistol Wk 5-1-5 5-1 Odd 2 Run   ZR T Fold Ross 23 2.64
UPDATE: I changed the scoring on this one (at 11:06 AM) after drawing it up. MSU folds the RT inside to double Jeter(+1) who's getting grabbed and ends up getting tackled by the neck by the C, but had both blockers occupied. Ross(-2) slams into the gap that Jeter's in instead of going the gap they're doubling Jeter out of, which should be a -3 error, but RPS-1 because that's a hard job for a single LB to see a tackle pulling on the backside and the zone read took out Ojabo. Welschof can't get playside of the G this time but it's not on him. Moten(-2, tackling-2) is the last man and takes a bad angle, barely slowing Walker.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 33-37. 5 min 4th Q. Next drive starts with 1:37 and Michigan uses up their timeouts.
Ln Dn Dst OForm DPack Front Hi Type Rush Play Player Yds EPA
O31 1st 10 Pistol Wk Tight 4-2-5 4-3 Over 2 Run   X Lead Counter Colson 2 -0.44
Rain is coming hard now. Colson(-1, tackling-1) shoots up at this (RPS+1) and has Walker dead to rights but slips in the mud. Ross(+2) flies outside and ends it before things get worse.
O33 2nd 8 Wildcat 5-2-4 5-2 Over 0 Run   QB Counter GT Lead Hutchinson 2 -0.54
Hutchinson(+2) slams into the PoA which takes out both pullers. Ross(+1) cleans up after Walker dives back inside.
O35 3rd 6 Pistol Wk 4-2-5 4-3 Under 1 Run   Arc Read Keeper Colson -6 -0.41
RPS+4 Michigan has this dead to rights. Colson hops high while Hutchinson forces the QB keep by setting up inside. Ross, Moten(+1), and Turner are all out here too and last point goes to the first one there.
Drive Notes: Punt. 33-37. 1:27 4th Q. and no timeouts. EoG for defense.

I gzzsdsst. Defffffleg. Zaffffffplubbbb.

Is this the Scottish bit already?

No, I aaasvvdfffffddaaazzzzz. Ggazzzzzzffffflllarrrrrrt. Bazzzzsssmt.

Oh, right, the inner Penn State fan inhibiter I installed on you after last week. Looks like it’s working. Try talking about something besides holding?

Frrraggggrarrrrrttttafffrrrrukkkkstitutions agrrrrrgrahhrrrempo wwwwwwuyyyrrrharthefkarweedooing

Something else.

Sorry that was just me trying to talk while spitting fire. WHY DO WE SUCK YOU SAID WE DON’T SUCK ANYMORE!

That didn’t suck but it did play out exactly how Michigan State likes it: bust bust BOOM bust bust BOOM. A drive chart:

  • Touchdown drives of 75, 75, 75, 86, and 41 yards made of big plays and 4th down conversions
  • 6-play, 36-yard drive that ends on an arm punt to the 2.
  • 5-and-out that was just a long scramble and a batted ball interception.
  • 5-and-out where the lone first down was an unfortunate facemask on a sack
  • Three three-and-outs

Just like the game writ large, there were a lot of high-leverage moments, and a lot of tense nothings in between. Moten dropped an interception and MSU got a long touchdown two plays later. Walker’s touchdown runs went for 1 (after a 40-yard throw on 4th down), 8, 23, 27, and 58 yards. Plays where he had to break more than one tackle and gained more than five yards: one. MSU’s average distance to go on 3rd down: 8.6. They completed both 2 point conversions when failing on either would would have ultimately given Michigan a shot to kick for the win. They averaged 34 yards on 4th down.

It wasn’t a great performance, but it was also a weird 400-yard day that was a few breaks from being a 200-yard day. Lots to clean up, a few bad ideas to hide in a sidewalk couch on the way out of town, and this isn’t that different from the new normal.

Speaking of bad ideas, why Michigan is trying to change personnel when the offense is running a play?

There is none—in fact I challenge you to find a strategy in college football this year that makes less sense than doing this…

…and then doing that two more times! The above cost them an illegal substitution and five yards on 1st down. Fine. They were trying to get an edge by having fresh tackles in the game at all times, and got caught.

Then it happens again, right after they got hit with an wide open receiver downfield on 4th and 1. Like before, MSU is attacking the edge to the opposite side of Michigan’s bench.

So now you’ve surrendered the lead with this tactic. You get halftime to reassess your strategies. And yet,

It’s pretty cool to see a 400-pound dude running at top speed across the field to break up this play. That is the only defensible thing about running Whittley onto the field in this situation. The fact that MSU was running stretch away from Michigan's sideline each time tells you that this is something they saw which could be exploited. Letting them do so twice more in increasingly important situations is indefensible.

Brian attributed that to having a young guy who’s spent most of his career at defensive coordinator. In the pros you get a chance to switch guys out between snaps, whereas in college the defense can only get a change in if the offense does so. Also in the pros the defensive linemen are largely interchangeable. Ours are not.

Aren’t they? We have two starters but who’s the 2nd team?

Since that takes some player comparison, we may as well drop the chart early.

Defensive Line
Player + - T Notes
Hinton 6 1 +5 Felt like he could have been on the field more.
Smith 11 4 +7 Him too, as much as possible.
Jenkins 4 5.5 -1.5 -3 for getting out of his lane on the long TD run.
Jeter 5 0 +5 Ideal matchup: badly coached guys with short arms.
Speight     0 DNP
Whittley 1.5   1.5 GERONIMO!
Welschof 2 3 -1 Nifty move going through Belgium but now what?
Hutchinson 29 7.5 +21.5 Had to do a lot more LB things. Big mitts in passing lanes.
Morris 4 6 -2 Opposite of Jeter: got leverage and got tackled a lot.
Ojabo 18 2 +16 Edge terror, full-timer, GO AWAY NFL
Harrell 0.5   +0.5 Ojabo emergence means less rotation here.
Upshaw     DNC But had several chances to in pass rush.
McGregor     0 DNP
TOTAL 81 29 +52 This is why MSU's run game was so boom or bust.
Linebacker
Player + - T Notes
Ross 11.5 13 -1.5 Tells grandkids life is easy if you haven't been the 1 in a 6-1.
Hill-Green 2.5 0 +2.5 Preferred him on the field to an extra DT.
Colson 7 1 +6 Ditto. Shot some gaps as the #2 LB. Didn't have to be #1.
Mullings     0 DNP
Barrett     0 DNP
TOTAL 21 14 +7 Survived, but if you get lost once it's points.
Secondary
Player + - T Notes
Hill 7.5 8 -0.5 One step behind in coverage day.
Hawkins 4.5 9 -4.5 Part of the reason miscues were points.
Moten 9 2 +7 Part of the reason there weren't more points. CATCH THAT!
Kolesar     0 DNP
Moore     0 DNP
Paige     0 DNP
Perry     0 DNP
Gray 1 2 -1 Locked on receivers, when he did and didn't want to be.
Turner 7 5 +2 Early coverage miscue was only one, might not be his.
Gem.Green 1 3.5 -2.5 I don't care if it's 4th and a nanometer that's your dude, dude.
TOTAL 30 29.5 +0.5 Needed one more play from them to make up for those that didn’t count.
Metrics
Pressure 28 6 +22 State wanted the ball out of there pronto.
Coverage 22 18 +4 Big plays vs a lot of good ones.
Tackling 11 11.5 -0.5 You've had a busy day. You're fortunate to be all in one piece.
RPS 13 20 -7 Got some, not all of the stuff MSU saved up.

So much for the DTs’ positive streak.

No, Brian is right that the starters were fine; the backups made crucial errors that got maximally punished because Walker is good and because other guys made critical mistakes. The one that sticks out the most was Kris Jenkins getting out of his gap on a simple stretch play. Remember getting gashed to death by Indiana in 2015 when Glasgow got hurt and young Hurst/Willie Henry/Tom Strobel did not trust themselves to stay on their blockers’ hips? This was a Young Hurst moment from Jenkins, who’s lined up as a DE.

#94 the DE on our right

Stretch is a test of wills; defensive linemen always want to go upfield and make the play, but if you don’t make the play you are not replaceable.

image

That kind of mistake is worth between 7 and all the yards depending on whether the next guy can get there. Ross was getting held by #75, so it's all of them.

Julius Welschof, another DT who got about as much run as the starters (and technically was one) was a culprit on a similar play, except he did belong in the backfield. He his guy, but then risks it all on a dive after Walker in the backfield.

#96 the DE just inside #79 on the left

If Welschof sets up there, Walker has nowhere to go. Take your shot at a highlight reel TFL on the superstar and miss, and then there’s nobody in that gap until the safety.

Michigan had a lot of trouble with this play, which just pulls the tackle around the guard to double the DT, but here they had it beat and just needed to finish the job. Welschof will learn—I don’t like that they’re learning these lessons in such critical moments. (Also Hawkins where are you going!?!?!)

Still, the fact that Juice got behind the OL shows why he’s getting on the field now instead of Jess Speight. I noted after the Northwestern game that Welschof doesn’t have the strength to stay put against doubles, but finds ways to use his ludicrous athleticism to make up for it. We had another of those instances in this game:

#96, second from the bottom of the formation

That might not last much longer, however. Teams have scouted him now and are probably just going to run plays that double him longer, since that seems to be his kryptonite. If he’s taking two guys’ attention and nobody’s getting stuck behind him, however, that’s another useful tool.

Jeter may have had his best game yet, probably because he was a uniquely suited player for the way Michigan State’s OL are coached to block. His positive attributes are he’s super strong, and has those big long arms. Jeter’s issues in the past have been that he gets too high and loses leverage. That flaw gets more exposed the more offensive linemen are coached to get low and win with leverage and feet. But you can’t get under him, he’s going to control the block, and maybe even wrangle down your back as he goes by.

#95 the 2nd from the bottom on the DL

MSU’s interior linemen, especially their center and right guard, try to beat you by getting their hands on your shoulderpads and wrenching you where they want you to go. That is a terrible strategy for a guy like Jeter because it obviates his fatal flaw, at which point you’re in a handfight with a bear.

That’s been a theme of the defensive line (and their coach, writ large): whenever I’m ready to sigh at a Nua project, they bring out a hell yeah! Guessing that means Jenkins will destroy six stretch zones against Indiana this week.

I like that Michigan has a variety of guys who excel in different situations. Whittley is an astral body, Speight a trusty muck-a-muck, Jenkins an explosive proto-Hurst, Morris a versatile Wormley (or Juaquin Feazell), Welschof a freakish (poor man's) Karlaftis type, and the starters are huge athletes like all the blue bloods recruit. It’s good that you can give an offense all kinds of different fronts with different combinations of these guys. The criticism here is that you also need to be judicious about which guys’ weaknesses you’re putting out there—e.g. Jenkins’s get-upfield rawness versus a team that’s running lots of stretch.

You mean like being the guy the coaches are mad at on Kenneth Walker III’s Heisman reel?

Obviously there were some big plays in high-leverage situations, but in general I though Michigan State’s coaches did a great job of understanding how Michigan’s run defense had prepared to take away the extra gaps Kenneth Walker is so good at pressing then bouncing out of for big yards. Michigan did that it by adding linemen, going with lots of 5-1, 5-2, and even 6-1 personnel on standard downs.

One counterattack to that was the play we discussed before: a short pull of a lineman to create a double team in a gap the linebacker isn’t expecting. Here’s the second touchdown off that play, again on Welschof, run to the other side.

(THIS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED) The right tackle’s pull moved an outside gap inside. Normally you have two linebackers watching for that sort of thing, but Michigan has just one. That's a -3 error and I went back and forth on whether to give the -2 to Ross or RPS. It went to Ross because the RT is really there to double Jeter, and Ross's job is to make Jeter right. Instead he goes to the same gap that Jeter's taking. 

It's still an RPS issue because that's a lot of players for Ross to be watching if you want him to know that the RT has re-gapped inside and he's got to fix it. 

State also used the weird personnel to put Michigan’s linemen in situations where they have to do the things that modern defenses deploy hybrid space players for. Here’s Aidan Hutchinson trying to be Jabrill Peppers out in the slot while still defending the edge of the run. He is not Jabrill Peppers:

Soft coverage behind the big long lines meant there were yards to be had with intermediate throws—throws you actually have time to make versus a six-man line because all the pass rushers are tackles (or non-pass rush threat Taylor Upshaw) and Hutchinson is off trying to do a job you recruited Junior Colson for:

The defense did “stiffen” and come up with two crucial stops at the end of the game, leading to two opportunities for the offense to win at the end. Those stops came down to Hutchinson and Ojabo, two guys who had been playing almost every snap, making sacks, plus a total ownage of a play Michigan State wanted to win the game with because of recent history.

That is our old friend Arc Read, and only one of the extra defenders committed to stopping it is there because Michigan is playing with no safeties in a “first down is game” situation. Hutchinson crashes inside and Hawkins is coming from the other side to ensure a give gets nowhere. They also shot Colson up deep, however, where the TE has no angle to shoot around. Then comes all the pursuit, and Michigan gets a final drive to make things right.

Michigan also stopped the arc read earlier with a crash-replace that used the safety as the replace.

This wasn’t the only gotchya play that MSU spent time preparing for Michigan only to get got. Up through the Northwestern game Michigan was having trouble stopping screens, especially RB split screens, because we’re already playing with few linebackers and sometimes using those linebackers to blitz. Here we have Ross blitzing but also someone on the Michigan sideline very audibly yelling “SCREEN! SCREEN!”

Turn the volume on if you haven’t already. It’s loud. Ross hears, tags Walker, and that’s that. Also Hutchinson blew up MSU’s one attempt at a flea flicker by diving inside the tackle and then following the ball. Thorne escaped a potential third strip sack only because Hutchinson stepped on Walker as he rerouted.

Take out the –9 from getting caught in substitutions (that’s harsh but I’m mad) and Macdonald gave as good as he got.

Shouldn’t the safeties be doing something about those long runs?

Yes, and that resulted in the worst day for Brad Hawkins since…a bad day I don’t want to remember right this moment. This was the one where Welschof won then took a bad gamble. Hawkins is in two-high, then runs down to help until he’s of no help whatsoever.

You can’t have that from your seniors. Moten got beat on the other T fold touchdown, but that was just an old fashioned bad angle, and honestly I didn’t think Moten was going to win a one-on-one with Walker if it came to that.

Hawkins also had moments to remember. He sniffed out this run on his way down from two-high.

That was a critical play, but also one Michigan needed more of. The way they were playing with so many defensive linemen was dangerous because if they get creased there’s only one linebacker, and nowhere for him to funnel to. A solution to that is to have a safety part of the run fit to funnel to.

And the rest of the back seven?

Mostly untested. The two big plays MSU got in the passing game were both fourth downs—a 4th and 1 where Green was so sure they weren’t going downfield that he let his receiver go…

…and a tip-your-cap fade over Dax Hill on 4th and 4 that is going to beat him and all the other NFL nickels like him over the course of his next career. They got a free play down the sideline when Morris jumped offsides once, but DJ Turner was step for step.

Michigan State’s pass protection wasn’t going to last long enough for any more interesting routes to develop. When they did try to keep Thornton alive long enough to survey more than one route, the result was sacks and near interceptions because the receiver was bracketed.

Other pass events were getting flagged for a phantom PI near Michigan State’s sideline, giving up some underneath stuff, or long rollouts when Hutchinson or Ojabo flushed Thorne from the pocket, the pursuit got yanked, and everybody had to stay tense from there to the sideline. And a lot of batted balls as Michigan State tried to get the ball out quick and short over unblocked pass-rushers:

I noticed a lot of those were defensive linemen.

Yeah, so part of having goal line personnel out there where was linemen fulfilling roles that are usually reserved for the fleeter fleet. Here’s Mazi Smith covering the hole, which is usually a middle linebacker job:

Here’s Hutchinson actually doing a good job of taking the flat role that usually goes to Dax Hill:

You tried to edge Aidan Hutchinson! How did that work out for us? Michigan mostly got away with it, but the payoff in the run game wasn’t worth it. They gambled that all these defensive linemen would add variance to the Kenneth Walker run game, where one TFL puts them in a passing down and Ojabo/Hutchinson can be brought to bear. It turned out to be a bad gamble, not because of the reason we thought it would be, but because the high-variance run game led to lots of long, long runs.

What amazing incredible you can’t be serious thing did Aidan Hutchinson do this week, and when you answer please remember that half your readers are on their phones and videos take a lot of memory.

I’m sorry but he is doing new good things, so the gfycats will continue. (Your phone browsers are ignoring code that I’m adding to them to stop them from autoplaying, by the way.)

This here’s a 3rd and 9 throw to an open slant route early in the game.

#79 is on the ground because their plan for Hutchinson here was to cut him and get the ball out before he can react. The plan is working—they get the ball out and Jayden Reed is open on the slant. But Hutchinson’s reaction to the cut isn’t to charge uselessly at the QB; it’s to stick his hand in the throwing lane.

image

The ball sails inside and high, incomplete. If it had been on target, it’s probably not getting past the line of scrimmage. This was hardly a one-off occurrence.

Those arms in the passing lane are a real problem for an offense that wants to deal with Hutchinson by passing over him before he inevitably arrives at the quarterback.

At the risk of saying something that’s true that will nevertheless offend many precious Spartans, Hutchinson was the best player on the field again, as he’s been every week he’s played. Like the Dax Hill thing, a route combination that doesn’t demand the ball get out under 1.5 seconds is something every opponent tries at least once to see if THEY’RE the team that’s good enough to crack it. Fat chance.

'n'yitth'gapbeclosingatweenyersassenachson'n'mahladdie

No, they called the hold on that one.

That wasn’t th'inhibitor ah wis speaking Scots!

n yit th gap—And yet the gap—be closing—And yet the gap is closing between…

Yer sassenachson.

Hutchinson? And your laddie! Yeah! Yeah it has! David Ojabo has progressed from an enticing high ceiling to a guy we’re starting to worry about exploring that ceiling professionally next year. The strip sack touchdown was an incredible pass rush versus a single tackle, but also has to be seen in the context of what it means for an offense that they can allocate the first part of a tight end’s route to chipping Hutchinson, and there’s a threat almost as dangerous still lurking.

When you have one great pass-rusher offenses can find ways to adjust. You also have to be careful not to run him too deep because there might be space to step up. Michigan still isn’t getting consistent pass rush inside from their tackles, but they can run Hutchinson high enough to flush or draw an extra blocker, and trust Ojabo to use his single-block to threaten low.

You can also vary their attacks and aim points. Ohio State’s should-be-in-the-NFL tackles are going to be a new challenge, but the college guys are doomed. Speaking of the pros, I know it’s our goal to keep Ojabo from going pro, but our claims that he’s not technically sound enough yet are starting to ring hollow. This is some sound play when every fiber in your body is trying to twitch in the direction of the highlight reel.

The difference between Ojabo’s +6 games when he had two excellent pass rush events and this game is he is picking up a handful of +1s and no grades for setting an edge responsibly, which means he can stay on the field for the other stuff. He’s #8 among edge defenders to Pro Football Focus. It’s happening dot gif.

Not much talk about the linebackers?

Other than Ross, who managed to get spoken of in all the previous sections, they didn’t get many opportunities. Colson took more advantage of his this time:

They still don’t trust him to replace Ross, which is understandable. Hill-Green might be due for some snaps at the MIKE, however, especially since one of these two is going to have to play it next year.

Did they try to edge Dax Hill this week?

They did.

How did it work out for them?

It didn’t.

So they stopped.

Can I ask about one of the rzzzffffprrraffffaffd PLEASE TAKE THIS THING OFF

Fine, but we've already hit our limit for holding complaints.

The reviews.

Sigh. So I don’t have anything to add to what Mike Pereira and Joel Klatt said on the broadcast about the fumble recovery in the endzone. This ball is coming out when Ojabo hits, and nothing about Thorne half-squeezing it between his knees means he reestablished control.

Rumor has it the Big Ten has apologized, for all the good that does. Add it to the list of atrocities that Michigan and only Michigan suffers with this much frequency.

The reviewers also gave MSU two catches that I thought were not, though these are way more open to interpretation. The first I’m convinced got overturned because they didn’t heed this important lesson: Always watch them in real time. I can't remember who taught me this but it turned me around when I was convinced some Michigan WR dug out a catch once until I was given this advice. Real time captures physics that your brain is wired to convert into information.

This play was ruled no catch because human brains saw the ball react as things do when they hit Earth. When they went to replay they announcers convinced themselves there was a hand under it and the receiver was bringing it up to his chest. If you’re really really trying, you can convince yourself that it’s indisputable evidence. If you watch it in real time your ability to see motion tells you that ball hit something flat and hard, not the fingers of a hand. This play didn't have a huge effect on the game but the real time effect is something I wanted to point out.

This also goes for the re-officiated touchdown, where live it’s much clearer that the ball was out because Ojabo jarred it loose (vs impact with the ground). Slow-motion tricks your brain into seeing less motion. If that’s what the officials were using to get these calls wrong, that standard has to change. Always watch in real time.

The other catch that I think wasn’t was the two-point conversion. I don’t know if they even reviewed it, because Fox was so determined to get to commercials, but this doesn’t complete the process:

The NCAA uses a “complete the catch all the way to the ground until you make a football play” standard:

If a player goes to the ground in the act of catching a pass (with or without contact by an opponent) he must maintain complete and continuous control of the ball throughout the process of contacting the ground, whether in the field of play or in the end zone. This is also required for a player attempting to make a catch at the sideline and going to the ground out of bounds. If he loses control of the ball which then touches the ground before he regains control, it is not a catch. If he regains control inbounds prior to the ball touching the ground it is a catch.

Here’s the money shot:

image

Reed’s not down, Turner’s already ripped it out, but doesn’t have possession yet. When Reed does hit the ground…

image

Since Turner has possession of that ball before Reed is down, it’s not a catch. If the logic’s confusing, imagine if that play happens inbounds and then Turner drops it as well—is that an incomplete, or a fumble?

It also Mattered. Michigan still would have kicked a field goal if they were up 30-28 instead of tied 30-30, but when it was 4th down deep in MSU territory and Michigan was losing 33-37 instead of 33-35, those two points were the difference between putting the game on Jake Moody and putting it on the refs.

There was one other big officiating error that I caught, though there is still time to rectify it. You don’t have to be an MSU partisan to recognize that Michael Morris got away with some extreme unsportsmanlike conduct here:

People replied to me on Twitter that they don’t see anything there, or postulated that Walker’s trouble breathing after the play was on account of how his back got bent. His trouble breathing was because he got choked by one of our players. I did not hold back about Will Gholston or Jacub Panasiuk or the rest of Dantonio’s Angels who defined the rivalry in the 2010s with behavior like the above. We should not condone it from Morris either. Suspend him for Indiana and it’s done.

Here I will reiterate my take on Big Ten officiating in general, which is that instances where the quality of refereeing becomes part of the game’s narrative should be unacceptable, and yet it continues to happen because the Big Ten uses amateur officials who are willing to do this for small pay on the weekends. It’s long past time to professionalize this aspect of the game like we have everything else, and Big Ten would be wise to do it first, if only because the players hate being subject to these unaccountable bush-leaguers even more than we do. Since Fox has added 180 more (90 minutes worth of) commercials to the Big Ten noon game in recent years, I’m sure they can afford to put at least some of that back into the product on the field.

Who’s Mr. Worldwide this week?

image

As a reminder, our criteria here are versatility, the ability to make your teammates better, being cool against long odds, and enjoying time spent under highway overpasses. This is decided after the second UFR. Your top three this week are all on offense:

1. Cade McNamara: Feasted on mid-level crossing routes, which are the highway overpasses of routes. Placed his passes in the perfect places to generate memorable moments for Anthony, Sainristil, and All. Some idiot put a cyan on him earlier this year. Also inbeing cool despite long odds, try to imagine any scenario not involving an athletic organization that just gave up on 130 years of preventing players from making money off their likenesses, in which this is cool.

image

And yet it is so, so cool. QB1.

2. Andrel Anthony: True freshman receiver (freshman receivers suck!) we had barely seen or heard from comes back to the hometown that was so sure they would win his recruitment and then shows his versatility by being every #1 in Michigan football history. Made JJ McCarthy look like a passer, Cade McNamara look like a 350-yard passer, and every cornerback on his team look like a saint for not going ballistic when they had to deal with the same crap that Anthony got flagged for. Is from the Lansing area, where kids walk across highway overpasses to go to school, and their most famous walkway is an overpass that goes over an overpass:

image

3. Hassan Haskins: Played offensive tackle, wide receiver, tight end, and running back, and that was just one play. Made so many guys miss in the backfield I’m still the only member of the fanbase who seems to have realized Barnhart had a really bad day. Was, to everyone but PFF, not even considered one of the top two running backs playing in this game. Hurdled a guy again so he could feel what it’s like to hang out under a highway overpass.

HMs (half points). Aidan Hutchinson for playin his position and Dax Hill’s and everything in between. Erick All for catching everything in sight. Donovan Jeter.

3-2-1 point system so our standings are:

7.5: Aidan Hutchinson
5.5: Erick All
5: Hassan Haskins
4: Cade McNamara
3: Ronnie Bell, Ryan Hayes, Daxton Hill, DJ Turner II
2.5: Andrel Anthony
2: Mike Sainristil, Junior Colson, Josh Ross, David Ojabo
1.5: Andrew Stueber.
1: Nikhai Hill-Green, Cade Kolesar, Cade McNamara, Luke Schoonmaker, Julius Welschof, Chris Hinton
0.5: Mazi Smith, Blake Corum, Joel Honigford, Chuck Filiaga, Donovan Jeter

Heroes?

Aidan Hutchinson, David Ojabo, Mazi Smith

Maybe not so heroic?

Hawkins, Jenkins, Welschof, thzzzzxfffffttzzzddddttttt.

What does it mean for Indiana and the future?

David Ojabo you’d better not Beilein recruit your way to the pros so soon after the light goes on. Unless you get us to the Final Four, then you can go. Presence of Hutchinson is creating Gary/Winovich effect where you can’t double both of them.

Michigan is never going to be good at tempo under Harbaugh. The idea that someone would ever want to hurry football rather than get it right has never entered the man’s thoughts, nor will it be countenanced.

From now on every NFL guy we hire gets a college football fairy. It can sit on his shoulder and say things like “that guy might not know how to defend outside zone yet,” or “They’re going to have that ball set in 3 seconds maybe wait for them to swap out a tight end,” or “You know we can read guys after the snap too.”

Different tackle blokes for different strokes. They’ve seen their various toys in various circumstances. I’d like to see them deployed more strategically now.

The 6-1 is cute but let history be your guide. Like the time that the modern linebacker position was invented in 1904 because a Michigan center/nose guard said “You know what—we really need a second linebacker.”

Turner might be real? One thing that didn’t happen was the thing we all feared would happen when Jalen Nailor and Jaylen Reed went against our cornerbacks. I wish I’d clipped the one where Turner dominated Reed’s route by staying outside the whole time. That was cool.

It’s still a transition year. Only a few early position battles settled. Fits are still goofy, roles are still fluid.

You don’t have to engage with people who are being toxic. This rivalry brings out the worst in people, and this particular brand of outcome most of all.

Professional refs now. Whatever you think about Talking About It vs Not Talking About It, the only people who think more fairness is a bad thing are those who want unfairness, and those who don’t think fairness is worth having to pay for it.

Moment of Zen:

Comments

1989 UM GRAD

November 5th, 2021 at 7:26 AM ^

First!  (I've always wanted to do that; for you youngsters, posting "first" was a thing back when Al Gore invented the internet.)

And, with the 8:30AM posting time, it appears as though you posted this from somewhere over the Atlantic Ocean?

EDIT:  I suppose I should say something substantive about the defense.  I haven't read the UFR yet, but I was at the game last Saturday.  My sense was that the moment became just a bit too much for our first-time college defensive coordinator.  You can point to quite a few pivotal moments, but, overall, the defense wasn't quite up to the challenge.  One guy beat us;  we should've been able to find a way to contain him to some degree.  

JHumich

November 5th, 2021 at 7:45 AM ^

UFRs help me with context.

My biggest takeaway after the game was that our DTs were constantly getting sealed, making Walker look better than he is and losing the game for us on the ground.

My takeaways after UFR are 

  1. The #1 DTs need to stay on the field more
  2. Not much you can do when holding is not only tolerated to the usual extent but actually encouraged. That's criminal, but as soon as we see it on D we have to react on O. Communicate that to our OL, and open similar holes for Corum and Haskins.

 

 

 

dragonchild

November 5th, 2021 at 9:02 AM ^

Not much you can do when holding is not only tolerated to the usual extent but actually encouraged. That's criminal, but as soon as we see it on D we have to react on O.

We don't get the same calls, or non-calls for that matter.  It's out of our control.

I do hate that the worst non-call we did get away with was a literal violent crime on the field.  Choke holds aren't just illegal; they're legit dangerous, if you're as strong as Morris.  He shouldn't merely be suspended for one game; we should be questioning if he should even be allowed on the team, and on which side of some iron bars.

So for this game, thanks to Morris doing that, it feels like complaining about the officiating is an "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln" situation.  We got held; their player was physically attacked.  But yeah, in general, we have hard data that shows Michigan gets the short end of the stick, so no, we can't play the same way.

Gohokego

November 5th, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^

I think he made a play and was up high.  He played until the whistle. Kind of hard to choke someone from the position he was in.  Bending his head down like that can make it hard to breath but if you're still fighting to go forward should he just let him? As soon as the whistle blows he let's go and  he falls forward for what would be an extra yard.  

smwilliams

November 5th, 2021 at 7:46 AM ^

It seems like Michigan gave up 37 for a few reasons.

1. Our first time college coach failed to adjust to the tempo rules in CFB.

2. Walker is really good. (How good would 8-0 Wake be if he had stayed)

3. Ref show. 
 

1 needs to be cleaned up as it happened against Nebraska too. Outside of Henderson, 2 isn’t a concern for the rest of the year. I’d hope 3 doesn’t happen again. 

jsquigg

November 5th, 2021 at 5:37 PM ^

In regard to #3, we can continue to be naive (since there is some protocol or unwritten rule that one must never complain about the refs in regard to the outcome), but Big 10 officials (at the very least) have a problem with Harbaugh/Michigan. There's really nothing to be done about it, and whenever Harbaugh even hints at refereeing he is called a whiner or worse. With the margins so tight in that aspect, it's the little things that are legacy issues that become so much bigger.

Catchafire

November 5th, 2021 at 7:53 AM ^

We really dominated this game.  MSU didn't have much except for the Walker home runs... But credit to them and their coaching for maximizing every bit of opportunity.

I hate blaming the refs, but in close calls they all went MSUs way.  That is something I do not like.  I understand reffing is tough, but at least try to make it even for both teams.

 

gbdub

November 5th, 2021 at 9:06 AM ^

Bottom line, the refs straight up gave MSU 9 points (16 if you count the “worst rule in sports” Walker fumble) in a game with a final margin of 4. And that’s just on replay (or lack of replay) of calls on scoring plays. 

Whether you “blame” the refs, or die on the hill of “Michigan should have played better so the refs didn’t matter”, incorrect calls were decisive in this game. That is a fact with far more indisputable video evidence than the replay booth was using. 

Seth

November 5th, 2021 at 9:40 AM ^

I think the reason Michigan State fans are so sensitive to this fact is it implies that they are responsible or that their win means less. The win counts and Michigan State, unless somebody turned up evidence of some wild conspiracy, is not responsible for the refereeing. 

People having arguments over whether it's okay to make obvious observations about a crucial aspect of this game are mostly doing it in bad faith. You don't have to listen to toxic people.

CompleteLunacy

November 5th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^

It is true. They think the complaints about refs means they didn't earn their victory. They don't realize that many things can be true at once: that UM absolutely got hosed by refs and replay at crucial times, and that MSU absolutely earned their comeback victory because Walker is a stud who will likely win the Heisman. I mean is anybody calling him a fluke? My first reaction after the game was "damn, he just won the Heisman you guys". 

dragonchild

November 5th, 2021 at 11:12 AM ^

Thing is, I'd like to be able to say that.  I'd like to be able to go up to a rival after a hard-fought game and go, "Your boys earned that."

But I can't, and I'm getting tired of watching highlights of "classic" rivalry games where "studs" made "big plays" which involved running by someone who couldn't make the tackle because he was being held.  Holding isn't just some bureaucratic poo-poo; it's illegal because it physically prevents a player from making a play.  Same for DPI.  We lost the game because our guy was literally prevented from playing football, due to an uncalled penalty.

I want to congratulate MSU, but the way the game was officiated denies me that.

gbdub

November 5th, 2021 at 11:31 AM ^

Yeah. The reality is that MSU didn't  earn the win. They certainly played well. They played well enough for the game to be close. Their running back and DE were the best (or at least most effective) individual players on the field. They did a better job of capitalizing on their high-leverage opportunities than Michigan. I have no problem conceding MSU any of that.

But they didn't beat Michigan due to their superior play. They beat Michigan because the referees incorrectly awarded (or failed to award) the points that decided the outcome. This is objective fact, or at least as close to objective fact as anything that somewhat relies on an alternative reality. 

This isn't "Michigan lost by 20 so griping about a bad overturn is sour grapes", or "that was holding man!!!!". This isn't even "that's supposed to be roughing the snapper". This is a straight up error by the replay officials, apparently acknowledged even by the conference, that turned a close Michigan win into a close Michigan loss. There is nothing wrong with acknowledging that fact. Sparties will be understandably defensive about admitting that, but the truth is a defense here. 

Wolverine Incognito

November 5th, 2021 at 4:37 PM ^

But I can't, and I'm getting tired of watching highlights of "classic" rivalry games where "studs" made "big plays" which involved running by someone who couldn't make the tackle because he was being held.  Holding isn't just some bureaucratic poo-poo; it's illegal because it physically prevents a player from making a play.  Same for DPI.  We lost the game because our guy was literally prevented from playing football, due to an uncalled penalty.

2016 The Game comes to mind...

charblue.

November 5th, 2021 at 11:00 AM ^

I find the contention of playing better through non-calls, poor angles or judgement to be a specious argument, an excuse for horrid officiating. The point of replay is to confirm or overturn a call on the field, not to re-officiate a play. I look at the Ojabo strip sack in real time and slow motiion, and can't see unless you make a frame-by-fram breakdown of Thorne's tackle where he demonstrates any instance of ball control after he begins his tuck.

And what makes the reversal seem less understandable is that when tackled Thorne initially lands on Ojabo, not the ground, which, in any other circumstance would denote the offensive player not down by contact. And the ball is lost almost immediately; Thorne loses his grip, the ball is slipping out of his fingers and then is flung out by the momentum of Ojabo's takedown. Terrible decision.

M-jed

November 5th, 2021 at 12:49 PM ^

No. Nope.  Won’t credit MSU for the win no matter how well they played. Yes the win counts.  Yes, they are good team. But they did not earn the win without the refs. We can discuss Michigan’s performance but I won’t hold the loss against a particular player or coach. Yes I’m angry. 

The Sea Was Angry

November 5th, 2021 at 10:39 AM ^

I'm too exhausted reviewing this game to count up the total points as you did, but I haven't seen anyone mention the questionable-at-best holding call (of all things) called on Anthony, I believe, in the first quarter that led to a 1st and goal from the 13-yard line rather than from the 1. I don't think it's too much of a stretch to add 4 lost points for that call, as well. Plus, it would have quieted the tired field goals vs. touchdowns narrative.

Thanks to Seth for pointing out the second 2-point conversion, too. I've been stewing about that play all week, mainly due to the missed call but also due to Fox's (lack of) coverage. I remember the announcers later in the game claiming it was reviewed upstairs, but is it possible that play didn't get reviewed because the network went to commercial so fast? I would guess there's no connection, but it seemed obvious to me that they missed that one. Yes, I'm a tortured Lions/Calvin Johnson fan.

wile_e8

November 5th, 2021 at 10:53 AM ^

I have issues with this. We went against a team that was clearly great at turning defensive mistakes into huge plays, but had issues against defenses that forced them to matriculate the ball down the field. And our response to that was to load up on the line on scrimmage without much support behind it. This was a high risk, high reward strategy that was great at bottling up most plays at the line of scrimmage but invited the huge plays MSU excels at any time there was a crack in the facade. Dominating most of the game doesn't count for much if you can't do it without giving up several huge opportunities that MSU thrives on. 

Boom or bust seemed like the exact wrong approach for this game, I don't know why the coaches leaned into it so much in this game when that was exactly what the opponent wanted. 

AmaizeingBlue

November 5th, 2021 at 7:55 AM ^

Man, that 2pt conversion evidence seems pretty damning. Live I thought it might not have been a catch, but the broadcast was so terrible I didn’t even give it much of a second thought. 
 

The only thing I’m thinking is that did those first handful of steps by the WR qualify as “completing the process” of the catch, and therefore the rule Seth quoted may not apply?

“If a player goes to the ground in the act of catching a pass…” Maybe the refs were thinking that those first few steps completed the act of catching the pass and then he went to the ground. 

gbdub

November 5th, 2021 at 9:13 AM ^

His feet touched the ground at least three times, but he took zero steps. This is another case where still frames / slow motion tell you something different than live action. In real time, it’s pretty clear the Spartan is stumbling and shuffling sideways trying to maintain his balance and complete the catch, not making a “football move”. The fact that the defender has the ball clean by the time the receiver was really down kind of ices the fact that the receiver never had possession in “real time”. 

ak47

November 5th, 2021 at 9:07 AM ^

Yeah the argument against Seth in that case is that taking a few steps with the ball was completing the process and by the time they went to the ground it was already a complete pass. I think I would lean toward that being a catch. Just like I think he got his hands under the other catch. The only problematic review was the strip sack but it sure was problematic.

jbrandimore

November 5th, 2021 at 7:56 AM ^

Hutchinson is JJ Watt 2.0

One small disagreement: you said it was impossible to double Gary and Winovich at the same time. My repressed memory of 2018 says Indiana demonstrated it might be possible and OSU dropped 62 as a result.

Seth

November 5th, 2021 at 9:48 AM ^

You're correct, but I did not want to get too far into the weeds in the article.

That leaves you in single blocking with the DTs, or else you have to use extra blockers. If you are taking players away from going into passing routes you are cutting the legs out of your passing game. You are also subjecting yourself to getting overwhelmed by blitzes. The difference between this team and 2018 is I think some of the defensive tackles can cause pressure if single blocked. Maybe not against Ohio State though.

2018 Ohio State and to a lesser degree Indiana pulled it off by running crossing routes against man coverage and having faster athletes. One of the main reasons for going to Macdonald was because we needed a defense that can't get carved by speed mismatches.

It really does all come down to having better players no matter what you run. Having two A+ rushing threats outside means your opponent has to either commit more players to them or find an advantage somewhere else. 

GoBlue96

November 5th, 2021 at 8:20 AM ^

One of the best UFRs I've read.  One thing missing is commentary on Harbaugh not calling timeout in the tempo disasters.  That should put him in the not so heroic slot.  Totally agree on Morris, suspend him.

Ian Boyd

November 5th, 2021 at 8:42 AM ^

Michigan is never going to be good at tempo under Harbaugh. The idea that someone would ever want to hurry football rather than get it right has never entered the man’s thoughts, nor will it be countenanced.
 

LOL

Thinking ahead to next year, do we think Welschof could play outside in Hutch’s spot or is his destiny to figure out the double team life as a 3-technique?

Finally, what is the right way for Michigan to fit the fold/arc-read play from that defense? I thought about it for a while when I was drawing it up in my own column.

The OLBs always contain, that’s how the 2-4-5 and certainly the 5-2 work. The safety also has to mind the TE, if that’s a route you can’t just let him run outside.

Some has to adjust when the gap moves and I’m not sure who it’s supposed to be.

steve sharik

November 5th, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^

Fitting the arc/fold is different in the first and last TDs because the first was a 6-1 and the second was like a 5-1 or 5-2 with the safety walking down. Looks like a 5-1 b/c it appears Hawkins was man on the H. I must stress that I've heard some folks say Michigan was in the 46 Bear defense. Hard "NO" on that--the H back guys would've had man players mirroring their depth and playing man.

Problems with how Michigan fit these:

  1. On the first one, with a shade and a 4i to the arc/fold side, the A gap is really two A gaps. And with Ross responsible for the A gap to the backside, and with 2 deep safeties, MSU just RPS'd UM, big time. Where Hutch and Hawkins are going to keep this a 5-ish yard gain instead of a TD, I have no idea.
  2. Also on the first one, with Hutch being the force player on a H back and then Welschof being a 4i, Michigan has no C gap player. (That will get scouted and exploited going forward). Watch the backside H come to kick out and stand there thinking "y u no have man for me to blok?"
  3. On the second one, Ross is clearly lined up to have A gap to the twins side, but the nose just tries to 2-gap the center, instead of attacking the other A gap. (Even if he did, the fold would probably execute that block.) When the fold tackle doubles on the 2-gap nose, Michigan has no A gap player. Boom, creased.

Both of these are, flatly, unsound schematically (my opinion). In the first one, Michigan has 7 defenders for 8 gaps. In the second, they have 6 defenders for 7 gaps. So to answer your question, the D can fit it perfectly and the offense still wins if it finds the undefended gap.

In other defenses, with 2 ILBs off the LOS, those LBs can be 2 gap players depending on the flow of the ball, so you can defend more gaps than you have players for. But if you use DL and put them all up front, you're done.

Seth

November 5th, 2021 at 11:34 AM ^

Yeah man. And by the way readers, you guys are getting a glimpse into a very active Twitter thread I have with Ian and Steve where we go over this stuff constantly. These guys are a huge help behind the scenes.

So I went and drew it up today to try to make sense of it, and while I agree that Michigan's fits are bad here, there's one way to defend it that makes sense to me, and that's have Ross make the nose tackle right.

click for big

steve sharik

November 5th, 2021 at 12:03 PM ^

Certainly, but there's a problem in that making the nose guard right, Ross has to read it longer from the 2nd level instead of being a downhill player. If the nose goes weakside (as in your diagram), the fold blocker simply climbs to Ross, who's waiting at 2nd level, and the huge hole really has 2 gap widths to defend.

I would play the 46 against it (so you have enough defenders for all the gaps) or play something with more than 1 ILB so you can 2-gap the ILBs to flow. With, say, Ross and Colson at the 2nd level, they both go to flow so the playside ILB can get downhill in the C gap and the backside ILB can attack the vacated A gap.

One thing I didn't mention is the DE/OLB guys are also fold players, meaning they'll fold inside if the ball declares inside instead of just hanging out outside defending blades of grass. They'll be late to the party, but at least the ball won't be being handed to the official in the end zone.

Seth

November 5th, 2021 at 1:08 PM ^

I don't know 3-4 defenses well enough is part of my issue here I think. It also may be Jeter got his assignment wrong. If he's on the C's frontside shoulder he's at least got a chance when the T arrives to funnel it to Ross. If he's correct to be taking the C's backside shoulder, shouldn't there be LB flow to the frontside?

My 4-3 brain agrees: if you've got 5 linemen just cover those guards and go fucking Bear: put Welschof into or across the guard and when the T gets there you've still got Ojabo hanging outside to contain the bounce.

My other thought (and maybe this goes back to Harbaugh's program just not getting any nuance about zone reads ever) is if you've got a choice between a QB running outside pursued by Ojabo and Kenneth Walker downhill with a head of steam, why aren't you giving Thorne a keep read every time? Ojabo should be shuffling inside when that tackle pulls and forcing a keep read or a Michigan-style give into an unblocked dude.

I miss having a Heiko to ask the coaches about it afterwards.

steve sharik

November 5th, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^

It's just damned easy for the C and folding OT to combo Nose to Mike. Best shot is to have the nose spike the playside A and then have the Mike flow to the ball and beat the combo block to the hole. Problems there are:

  1. there's now a huge cutback hole in the backside A with the fold player standing at the LOS and Kenneth Walker is the one cutting it back. No bueno.
  2. with the double H formation, the nose would be guessing, and if the play goes the other way he spikes into the weakside A. Now the hole is hugemongous and the folding OT has a clean run at your Mike.

Another solution would be to teach your 3 tech to treat it like a pull and spike over the guard into the A gap. Pretty tough ask for non-Mo Hurst 3 techs, though. However, even if the spike doesn't make it clean, the ball likely bounces out to your unblocked DE/OLB.

Ian Boyd

November 5th, 2021 at 10:58 PM ^

Reading these and thinking more, I think it has to be Ross making this work.

If the safety is going to follow the tight end outside in case he runs a route than the LB has to be mirroring the RB for similar reasons. He can’t just play downhill into an A, he has to stack and track the back’s trajectory. He should be able to get away with 2-gapping from the fact all the OL are covered.

The fold is designed to complicate this but still, Ross is downhill into a gap Walker is not committed to. You can’t play that way when you’re the only second line of defense.

RAH

November 6th, 2021 at 1:08 AM ^

Welschof could play 2 more years. And he might be one of the rare ones who might do it. He's still early in his football learning curve and could substantially improve each of those years. So it might be worth using a scholarship for him. Also, he seems like the type who would get real benefit from graduate work. 

AC1997

November 5th, 2021 at 8:54 AM ^

Okay....I have takes.  I'm going to avoid ref takes until I take a walk and switch to decaf, but I have some thoughts on things Seth said here and that my brain told me (knowing I am not nearly the expert Seth is):

  • Our back-up DTs didn't get "just as much time as the starters" in the way that statement implied.  I think our starters were out there most of the time - our backups just happened to be the third DL on many plays and thus their snap counts were higher than usual.  I think they were still much less overall than the starters.  
  • While I too am happy about the progress of Hinton and Smith, wanting them out there every play, isn't it plausible that one of the things that makes them so good is that they aren't trying to be Don Brown iron men and instead get periodic rest while also having the DL deployed in ways to fit their strengths?  I think the biggest frustration in hindsight is that we gambled that more DL was better than more LB and it didn't work....less so we subbed off Hinton and Smith too much.
  • I was pissed about the 2pt conversion at the time and stupid Fox was in such a hurry that even their good announcers and in-house ref never got a chance to comment on it.  
  • I agree in hindsight that Turner's PI was bogus....but live I thought he got a tug early and of all the things I was screaming about it wasn't really one of them.
  • I'm still not on-board with the Morris-getting-a-suspension take.  I appreciate Seth being fair and I probably would have shrugged if a flag was thrown - but this doesn't seem nearly as clear and obvious as those other examples.  If Walker doesn't get shown on replay rubbing his neck I wouldn't have noticed. Why?  To me, this is one of those plays where Morris tackles, has him up high, doesn't want to let him fall forward, then another MIchigan defender piles on and pushes everyone backward, changing the angle of where Morris and Walker are.  When the whistle blows Morris finally lets go and you see Walker fall forward - the half-yard Morris didn't want to concede.  Perhaps a flag is worth considering for how long Morris holds on to him, I still don't think it was as vicious as Seth implies.

Jmer

November 5th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^

You are 100% correct on the Morris tackle. He hit was high but not in a malicious way and he wrapped up and drove back until the whistle. This is cliche to say, but if you are upset about that, then you probably didn't play football much. When one is tackling, they wrap up any body part they can get (ankles, legs, waist, torso, shoulders, neck, even head if you're not grabbing the facemask). Walker was clearly ok because he stayed the the field and gashed us for a touchdown two plays later.