Preview: Michigan State

Submitted by Tim on March 4th, 2011 at 12:54 PM

msulogo.jpg

The Essentials

WHAT Michigan v. Michigan State
WHERE Crisler Arena (Maize Out)
WHEN 2:00 PM EST
March 5th, 2011
THE LINE Michigan -2.5
TELEVISION CBS (Coverage Map)

This is The Most Important Game Of The Season. No qualifiers necessary. Michigan could be 1-29 - still with a win in Breslin, of course - and this would be The Most Important Game Of The Season still. The fact that tomorrow's winner is likely to make the NCAA Tournament while the loser is likely NIT-bound barring a strong run in Indianapolis... well, I don't have to explain the stakes to you.

I've started this post a hundred times, and frantically erased a couple paragraphs that just didn't seem adequate for the situation. I'm no college basketball fanatic, but this game just feels... bigger. I'm struck with writer's block at the enormity of the moment, much like Brian must have when he started writing Eleven Swans. Nothing I can come up with will seem right.

Beat the Spartans. Sweep the Spartans.

Tempo-Free Breakdown

If you need an explanation of the stats, check out Ken Pomeroy.

Michigan v. Michigan State: National Ranks
Category Michigan Rank State Rank Advantage
Mich eFG% v. MSU Def eFG% 47 122 M
Mich Def eFG% v. MSU eFG% 170 161 -
Mich TO% v. MSU Def TO% 16 255 MMM
Mich Def TO% v. MSU TO% 253 194 S
Mich OReb% v. MSU DReb% 324 62 SSS
Mich DReb% v. MSU OReb% 54 69 M
Mich FTR v. MSU Opp FTR 342 144 SS
Mich Opp FTR v. MSU FTR 35 213 MM
Mich AdjO v. MSU AdjD 54 37 S
Mich AdjD v. MSU AdjO 54 71 M

Difference of more than 10 places in the national rankings get a 1-letter advantage, more than 100 gets a 2-letter advantage, more than 200 gets a 3-letter advantage, etc.

This is a pretty even statistical matchup (and was probably tilted in Michigan's favor prior to the Spartans' beatdown of Iowa). You know the characters: Kalin Lucas is putting the team on his back, Durrell Summers is a huge disappointment, Korie Lucious will next hit the court for Iowa State, not MSU.

On the other side of the court, Michigan has been steadily improving since the victory in the Breslin Center, particularly on defense. Tim Hardaway has emerged into a star. Darius Morris is (ugh) the Butterfly. Jordan Morgan is holding his own in the post as a redshirt freshman.

With both teams' post-season hopes hanging in the balance, this should be one of the games of the year. And CBS thinks most of the country would rather see a routine beatdown of a terrible Oregon team! CBS is the anti-Sheen #notwinning.

Elsewhere

Game preview from The Only Colors, and they also break down Big Ten defensive efficiency by each of the Four Factors. David Merritt talks shop with UMHoops. Friday links from UMHoops, including a couple other game previews. UPDATE: Dylan's preview is up.

Bonus Bracketology Rootin'

Since there's a meager slate of games tonight, no dedicated post. You want Harvard to win and Princeton to lose in the Ivy League, so the Crimson can make the Tournament (and stay in the RPI top-50). Both games are at 7.

In the Horizon League, you probably want to cheer against Cleveland State to make the field a little easier for Butler. They'll likely get an at-large, so you don't want the league's auto-bid to go to anyone else.

There are tons of relevant games tomorrow, so look for an early-morning bracketology post.

Predictions

With both teams' tournament lives on the line, I have to sadly side with Tom Izzo, who guaranteed a win Wednesday night (H/T iSportsWeb):

Don't get me wrong, John Beilein is one hell of a coach. But Tom Izzo isn't shabby himself, and he's been doing this a long time at Michigan State. He knows what it takes to get a win, and the NCAA Tournament is the norm in East Lansing. Nothing else is acceptable, and the players and coaches in green all know that.

Durrell Summers will break out of his offensive slump and Kalin Lucas will out-duel Darius Morris at the point guard spot. However, Tim Hardaway and some clutch shooting from the two juniors will keep this a tossup until the very end. Spartans win, 65-64.

Go Blue. Beat. State.

Comments

Cosmic Blue

March 4th, 2011 at 1:04 PM ^

 ur allowed unabashed homerism in this situation

also this needs a fix: "This is a pretty even statistical matchup (and was probably tilted in Michigan's favor prior to the Spartans' beatdown of Michigan State)"

BlueHOV

March 4th, 2011 at 1:31 PM ^

I could not agree more.  I think these write ups could do without a "prediction" section.  Not even considering that he is wrong most of the time, it's just fucking depressing when he doesn't pick UM.

 

Maybe it could take more of a "reason to worry if..." and "reason to cackle knowingly with glee if..." like Brian does for the football games.

Z

March 4th, 2011 at 1:09 PM ^

You picked the Spartans, 'The Only Colors' picked the Wolverines, and my dog gave me a dead mouse and purred as she nuzzled my leg.  This must be the verge of the apocalypse.

joeyb

March 4th, 2011 at 2:55 PM ^

This is the point in the season where your team has been underperforming so you undervalue them even further. It's also the point where your team has been overperforming and you are very cautious not to overvalue them.

I think it'll go down like all of our games have recently. We get a big lead with about 5 minutes left in both halves and we let them back in, but not quite close enough for the win. The teams we have lost to recently are the ones with players that can make plays in the last 2 minutes. I'm not sure that I've seen that from MSU, even recently.

BornInAA

March 4th, 2011 at 1:33 PM ^

is pretty much anti-Sheen (since they fired him)

but Michigan is anti-Sparty.

I believe Sparty is going to choke on the pressure....they are expected to win.

Maybe like the Magic vs Heat game last night.

 

AeonBlue

March 4th, 2011 at 1:35 PM ^

Lunardi has us on the bubble competing with BC for a twelve seen with MSU "in" at the moment. Other than obviously a Michigan win, we REALLY need to be rooting for BC to lose to wake on sunday.