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why im crine in the club

why im crine in the club

game being exclusively on…

game being exclusively on the brighton and hove albion channel really contradicting my "tony petitti is a brain genius" priors

come for the josh wallace,…

come for the josh wallace, stay for the david foster wallace (imo)

I intend no offense but "a…

I intend no offense but "a contest that has to rank near the top of the list of most unsettling wins of the thousand" reeks of someone who has followed this team for, like, several weeks more so than a literal thousand (or even hundred-plus!) wins.

on his visit to lsu, livvy…

on his visit to lsu, livvy rizzed baby gronk up. livvy even hugged baby gronk. he might be the new rizz king. do you think baby gronk will lead lsu to a national championship?

Under no circumstances…

Under no circumstances should Tony Grimes be considered "set on Virginia Tech."

Reyna has not played a…

Reyna has not played a single full game yet this season. He has made it past 67 minutes precisely once.

Ferraria

Ferraria

Hello I would like to make…

Hello I would like to make an additional comment.

Remake of The Rock starring The Rock and Jeff Bridges in the Nic Cage and Sean Connery roles (respectively) when?

I would say Sean Bean as Ed Harris but he already played that role in Goldeneye. Goldeneye spoiler alert, sorry.

The Good Place owns. Thank…

The Good Place owns. Thank you for your time.

FWIW, after VT's coaching…

FWIW, after VT's coaching change, his primary recruiter was linebackers coach Chris Marve. Certainly the main reason for that is because Marve recruited his brothers to Vanderbilt... but possibly also with an eye toward a position switch (which had not been considered by the previous staff).

ty similac

ty similac

I know naught of his…

I know naught of his specific situation, but Russell wouldn’t necessarily count against football scholarships if he’s on a lacrosse scholly.

Players who have scholarships in other sports can join revenue sports as walk-one without counting as long as they don’t play the revenue sport until after two years in their initial sport (essentially to prevent schools from stashing football recruits in other sports, without preventing them from walking on in the major sports). 

A quick perusal of mgoblue would seem to indicate that even if he’s on lacrosse scholarship, he’s been in school long enough that it wouldn’t count against football’s limit even if he plays (he’s a fourth-year guy). Of course, based on his lacrosse contributions to this point, he’s looks like a walk-on anyway, so it’s all academic. 

corey pr0nman

corey pr0nman

A few quick notes having…

A few quick notes having covered the VT game...

Penn State was shooting pretty poorly before playing the Hokies (“opposing shooters have a career day” is a several-year storyline for VT, though it wasn’t the only factor here). Some of that was poor shooting generally, others were a few guys shooting below their career percentages in the first few games. 

After many years of being a small-ball team that spreads the opponents and tries to run, VT has swung hard in the other direction with a few transfer bigs in the fold. As Brian mentioned, PSU is a small team. This was not a disadvantage against Virginia Tech. 

The Nittany Lions leaned hard on a 1-2-2 three-quarters court press early (and less late only because the game was a blowout). A Virginia Tech team that’s generally turnover-prone - point guard Wabissa Bede has ways to make up for it but gives the ball away a lot - committed a ton in the first half. That gave Penn State buckets of easy transition looks that they hit and from there they were very willing to go bombs-away, and shot very well. 

The press led to a bunch of turnovers as mentioned, but a few of them were also unforced (a dish for a wide-opened dunk bounced off center Keve Aluma’s hands and he kicked it OOB is one that immediately comes to mind). The way Penn State played was a problem for VT. The Hokies also did a lot of opponent-independent stuff that hurt them. 

I feel like Michigan has better PG play (certainly more depth with multiple options) and certainly a more-skilled big in Dickinson - and one who’s more reliable if less capable of top-end production if Davis is in there. 

As long as Michigan doesn’t do some of the self-defeating stuff that VT did, they should be fine. Penn State is definitely much better than they appeared before smacking the Hokies. The 1-2-2 press will five teams fits at times when Ferry used it. But there’s a liiiiittle element of fool’s gold in there, too. 

PFF has Onwenu as the second…

PFF has Onwenu as the second-best guard in the NFL. They have the Browns' Wyatt Teller at 94.4 (on about half-again as many snaps as Onwenu has played).

Burmeister is very much not…

Burmeister is very much not expected to start at VT. Could change, naturally, but the Hokies have an incumbent starter who is on the Maxwell Watch List.

"To the Moon and Back" was a…

"To the Moon and Back" was a legit banger, idc idc

Forgot to add: I wouldn't…

Forgot to add: I wouldn't worry about the length of his high school film (or interpret it as he's not a full-time starter). Like I noted, he actually played a bit longer than a lot of other starters, but the starting lineup for SFA gets like no time on the field as Poggi tries to develop young guys.

I'm not exaggerating when I say they get like 40-0 leads in the first quarter and don't play anyone of note (upperclassmen, at least) thereafter.

FWIW, I've covered a number…

FWIW, I've covered a number of SFA games in the past two years (inasmuch as watching them paste local and/or Canadian competition like 200-7 is "covering") and it's really hard to evaluate anyone except in the context of these nationally televised games. 

With that caveat: he's definitely not a guy that you're going to notice as a top performer in those contexts (Corum is the obvious one who is, Tennessee LB commit Aaron Willis - a former Virginia Tech commit - also stands out), and is also a guy that is left in the games a little bit longer as the score is run up. He's... I don't want to say "lumbering" but his athleticism certainly doesn't stand out among the St. Frances players. A big hitter who you probably want to protect athletically in the formation/scheme is the elevator pitch from what I've seen in-person.

If Lawing wants to spew…

If Lawing wants to spew total bullshit, he probably shouldn't use an example that's so easily falsifiable, imo.

For what it's worth,…

For what it's worth, Vastardis is probably more of a Glasgow-type (scholarship-caliber, but willing to walk on) than your typical preferred walk-on. I think Old Dominion might have been his only scholarship offer, but U-M was pretty close to giving him one after he camped before his junior year.

The staff essentially decided to hold off because they hoped they could land him even without an offer (family history with Michigan, academics, etc.), and he wasn't a can't-lose guy if he went elsewhere because he didn't get the offer - and he almost did, flipping from a scholarship slot at Old Dominion like a couple weeks before Signing Day.

Nolley is an extremely…

Nolley is an extremely talented player. For a couple reasons, not sure he’d be a fit for Michigan (which is to say I’m fairly certain he wouldn’t be):

1) He actually had two years at VT. He redshirted the first year because the NCAA deemed him academically ineligible after a flagged standardized test. Maybe not the most damning thing in the world, but a VT athletic department that’s aggressive - borderline unprofessional, honestly - in defending kids when they think the NCAA is doing them wrong... was silent on the matter. I wouldn’t speak in certainties, but the tea leaves point to the fact that the Hokies essentially conceded he cheated on his exam. 
2) that usage number last season was largely built later in the year when he became an epic black hole. The team began to struggle and he just went “fuck it, I’m shooting” basically every time he touched the ball. That probably wouldn’t continue if he ended up in a system he believed in a bit more (or was just on a team that didn’t start to fade and leave him feeling like he was the only answer - in spite of most available evidence), but at the very least, a guy who needs a ton of shots to be involved in the game probably isn’t needed even if Livers is gone, and certainly isn’t needed if Livers returns. 

OK a previously-unplanned third item:

3) Again, don’t want to damn a kid as a prospect because of off-court things that may or may not affect on-court production, but he has been a pretty big flake. He committed to and recommitted from Illinois a couple times in the recruiting process, and wavered on his VT commit a bit to think about a third(!) commitment to Illinois. Then he’s entered the transfer portal both offseasons at Virginia Tech. I’d be shocked if he’s at his next program for more than a year (if the second half of his season hasn’t been borderline impressive in how bad it was, he’d be in the NBA Draft process with an agent signed for sure), and if he’s just a one-year rental, you’re at the very least banking on the one-time transfer rule going through, and if he’s immediately eligible... does he add enough in that single year that the juice is worth the squeeze?

I can’t answer that for certain, but the totality of the above picture makes me doubt it enough that a program like Michigan would have to overlook (or accept the risk of) a lot to bother. 

I let out an involuntary…

I let out an involuntary sigh at the mere reading of the name "Sean Parker."

Correct, only the…

Correct, only the quarterback (or player who takes the snap) may legally ground the ball.

I certainly don't think they…

I certainly don't think they ever have ulterior motive like that. I do question the rigor and holistic nature of what they do. Changing grades (by more than 20 points!) after they've been published indicates that the initial product deserves some skepticism... so why shouldn't the "final" product also be doubted (especially since the work isn't shown)?

For what it's worth, PFF did…

For what it's worth, PFF did ding Onwenu for a pressure (though his run-blocking grade was definitely the anchor on his overall grade). I think part of the low overall grade is that I've noticed they seem to over-punish for penalties, and he had a false start in there.

I'm also slightly disillusioned with their grading overall this year. They gave VT's quarterback a 67.2  grade as of Monday for a game in which he completed 40% of his passes, under 8 yards an attempt, and the vast majority of his yards coming all after catch on one play. ...then they went back two days later and made it something reasonable (46.8). 

Seems like they sort of fudge their way through a lot of things until somebody notices, then go back and actually take a real look all too often. There's no way even the raw numbers would have justified the initial grade (without even going to the film, which was significantly worse than the numbers shows(!)), and they didn't seem to make sure it passed the most basic smell test before publishing.

pass pro shops

pass pro shops

Nordin had a broken…

Nordin had a broken collarbone as a senior and sat out most of the football season, IIRC.

Anthony McFarland is not…

Anthony McFarland is not Booger McFarland's son.

FWIW on Hibner, he's a prime…

FWIW on Hibner, he's a prime example of the tendency of Virginia Tech to be very good with evaluations (they were his first FBS offer, at a time when Howard was his only college option) and very poor with landing the kids that they actually want. They had also talked a bit to him about OLB, so not necessarily a TE evaluation on their part.

I'd say there's a very good chance he moves way up the boards, possibly even to four-star status, if he's healthy his senior year.

As someone who has already…

As someone who has already done the research on Mike Young because he got hired (and because of where he got hired), I was pleasantly surprised with his resume - out of the Porter Moser category, for sure. I don't know that he'd be a Michigan-good hire, but he definitely was a VT-good hire. 

Immediately took Wofford's defense from dogshit to mediocre, and the offense has generally been between good and very good. When the two come together in a way that only happens every few years at a mid-major, you get their 2018-19 - previous peak years were still "best team in a bad conference," but certainly not this year's overall. I still wouldn't classify him as a one-year wonder.

...he also probably wouldn't have bothered to leave Wofford for a high-major unless it was the one he grew up 20 minutes away from (so in the hypothetical fantasy world in which he's still available, the cost to pull him away would have been higher than it was for VT, and higher than justified for the resume). 

He's an extremely good…

He's an extremely good athlete. It's also worth noting that Opening Regionals famously feature something more like a 37-yard dash than a 40-yard dash. If he runs a 4.30 at the NFL Combine in a few years, that's a different story. It's probably more like a 4.38 (which, why even take him if he's that slow?).

Blackshear has three-point…

Blackshear has three-point range and is at least somewhat interested in a program that would use him as a bit of a stretch four (his NBA future, most likely). He doesn't have much of a post game (it's OK, nothing special). I don't know that he'd be a fit for Michigan primarily because he'd be incapable of defending the more undersized four-types assuming you tried to play him with Teske.

And of course, he's not looking for a school where he'd be second-banana center (which he'd probably be at Michigan, given what I've said above).

 

Michigan is No. 48…

Michigan is No. 48 nationally at 5.19 points per redzone opportunity ("scoring percentage" is the dumbest stat, because it implies three points and 7 points are the same thing). There's certainly room for improvement in it... but it's hardly a damning flaw.

Michigan State is "better" at scoring in the redzone, for example, with nine field goals and 19 touchdowns (87.5% to Michigan's 86.5%), but they've scored only 5.0 points per redzone opportunity: there's basically no way to slice that as better in any pragmatic way.

U-M's failed redzone trips are:

  • A bobbled field goal snap against Notre Dame (down 21-10 at the beginning of the third quarter, that certainly impacted the outcome of the game, though didn't decide it obviously)
  • Interception against SMU (tied 0-0 in the first quarter of an eventual 42-20 win)
  • Interception by the third-string quarterback against Nebraska (up 56-3 in the fourth quarter)
  • Kneeling out the clock on the final drive against Wisconsin (up 38-13)
  • Missed field goal against Michigan State (up 7-0 right before halftime. Felt scary at that point but didn't impact the outcome of the game).

So two out of five failures were deep, deep into garbage time and Michigan didn't particularly care about a "failed redzone trip" (certainly not the Wisconsin one). So, either the team doesn't bog down in the redzone that much, or your problem is that they kick too many field goals, rather than scoring touchdowns. 21.62% field goals in redzone trips is No. 66-highest nationally (i.e.: low). 

Again, anything less than perfect is an opportunity to improve, no doubt. But is redzone offense a problem (even disregarding the MGoHeuristic that "Redzone Offense" is not really a thing)? The data say otherwise, and pretty convincingly. 

(If you extend the scoring zone from like the 20 to the 40 or so, the numbers are certainly quite different, a probably a little less kind to Michigan. However, that's not easy stuff to look up - it's not tracked by an easily-accessible source - and is also not encompassed by the initial question).

A couple (completely…

A couple (completely unrelated) things:

1) Like 30% of Denard's high school rushing yards came on fake punts(!). Really athletic high school quarterbacks aren't always turned loose, for reasons both reasonable and not, which could explain some of the Milton stat thing. 

2) In response to the Pro Football Focus griping about Bushell-Beatty, they did indeed have him as Michigan's best OL in the run game (72.0) but had him as the worst pass-blocker in the game (54.7) behind the other four OL, both primary tight ends, and Higdon. Runyan was the best pass-blocker and second-best run-blocker. JBB's 71.0 overall would have been good enough at center or the second guard spot, but Hermanns had an extremely good pass-blocking day to beat him out.

The next competitive…

The next competitive tournament is the 2019 Gold Cup, beginning in the middle of next June.

It will not be an A-team…

It will not be an A-team roster, though it will have plenty of first-team regulars. No purpose in pulling guys away from Europe for a long-ass flight for two games when they're right at the beginning of their club seasons.

Pulisic almost certainly won't be there (barring a change in plans, obviously), and you'd likely only see a few others who play regularly for European clubs.

I'd say the compounding of…

I'd say the compounding of what was indeed a problem by an idiot coach who played Omar Gonzalez instead of Geoff Cameron, Matt Miazga, a trash can with legs, etc. was the more direct reason. Obviously the Brooks injury (which, let's not kid ourselves, is just a state of being nowadays) opened up the opportunity for that to happen.

Weah was definitely one who…

Weah was definitely one who I thought I'd include, but it'd be Arriola I'd replace, not Saief. (Of course that relies on Saief remaining healthy, which he hasn't for a little while now). I think you could also drop one of the more offense-minded central midfielders (cough cough Nagbe) for an additional winger, given the versatility of a guy like Pulisic to play multiple roles.

It absolutely must be…

It absolutely must be somebody with an understanding of the US player pool and what (MLS/college/etc.) makes it unique vis-a-vis other countries, at least for the next hire. Somebody with Earnie Stewart familiarity (Berhalter played against him in the Eredivisie, they've crossed paths in other ways since then) is also pretty likely.

My top two choices - assuming Vermes is off the table for now - are Jesse Marsch and Berhalter. USSF can be a little more adventurous (not "Klinnsman-level adventurous") with the next hire.

Maybe this Berhalter fellow…

Maybe this Berhalter fellow knows what he's doing. ??

If you're interested in more…

If you're interested in more, I'd recommend SB Nation's USMNT blog Stars ands Stripes FC. It's often very 1,000-foot view (and doesn't get a ton deeper often enough for my tastes), but certainly fills a niche for a given depth of analysis.

MLS academies are indeed a…

MLS academies are indeed a game-changer. I think even bigger is the growth of lower-level soccer. Good riddance to NASL, but the more opportunities there are to stay in the country (or to come here from abroad) and play competitive matches - whether USL, USL D3 (soon), NPSL, PDL - the more opportunities there are for guys to avoid slipping through the cracks. There's a lot more soccer, and a lot more good soccer for people at all age groups, and it's a big deal.

Oddly (or perhaps not oddly), some of the MLS sides with the best youth development setups - Real Salt Lake, Houston Dynamo, Sporting KC, and to a lesser extent New York Red Bulls - haven't been as successful on the pitch. When they find a way to bridge that gap (I think it's having a solid vertical progression of DA => PDL => USL => MLS for players to aspire to), things will really take off.

Clint Dempsey and Landon…

Clint Dempsey and Landon Donovan absolutely both had stretches of their careers where they were that sort of player (for Donovan, mostly international only, though Dempsey got it done for a solid half-dozen years or so in the Premier League). It's less about having the singular talent and more about having depth and quality around them. That's what we've had too infrequently in recent years.

The problem with the US has…

The problem with the US has never (well not "never" in a literal sense, but in recent history) been lack of athleticism. Indeed, the USMNT has been known for having great athletes. It's been lack of technical development. 

I know it's en vogue to say "but what if our best athletes..." especially in the wake of not making the World Cup, but it's really not an accurate picture of what our country lacks. Is Luka Modric an elite athlete? Sergio Ramos? Robert Lewandowski? Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang? Heck, I'd say there's a decent chance Christian Pulisic is a better athlete than Lionel Messi.

Sure, we've never had that Mbappé type, but there have been very few of those over the years. We've lacked the technical development far more than we've ever lacked athletes.

Like I said, I'm very high…

Like I said, I'm very high on their potential. They will likely end up a much greater group. But to already say "there's no doubt" when basically zero of these guys but Pulisic are proven at a high level is still a massive overreach. Even he 

Donovan, Dempsey, and Altidore are unquestionably the best trio the MNT has ever had, and they came out in the same generation.

Six of the top 11 goal…

Six of the top 11 goal-scorers all-time came up within seven years of each other... and three of them played in the last competitive match for the USMNT (so it's not like they're from ages ago and easily forgotten). I'm really high on this next generation, but that's some pretty significant over-anointing.

He's more of an 8 than a 10…

He's more of an 8 than a 10 to me at an international level (and unfortunately for him, that's a spot with a lot of depth, though many of them are a bit more defensive-minded).