Greetings! I have missed you all. Last year was fun. Let’s do that again.

For those of you who are new here, we like to spend a few minutes every week looking Michigan’s slate of opponents. As always, fair warning:

• This column it is for entertainment purposes only, and even that is a stretch. It does not constitute legal, medical, accounting, tax, or gambling advice. It also does not contain sufficient accuracy for the FDA to allow us to label it as “analysis”; we can only refer to it as “processed information byproduct.” On the bright side, it may be stored at room temperature, as that which is not good can never really go ‘bad.’ If you want real analysis, go purchase HTTV 2022 right now. It has a full, detailed, insightful breakdown of each of these teams. Except Rutgers. I wrote Rutgers.
• This column will contain typos, grammatical abominations, and glaring factual errors. When in doubt, they were intentional.
• This year’s schedule is bad. Very bad. Especially the first half. This part is not my fault.

With that out of the way, let us once again play our stupid game. May the stupid prizes be plentiful.

About Last Year

[Fuller]

And sometimes when you're on, you're really f***ing on,
And your friends they sing along and they love you:
”Jealousy, turning saints into the sea;
Swimming through sick lullabies;
Choking on your alibis;
But it's just the price I pay;
Destiny is calling me;
Open up my eager eyes;
The Champions of the West.”

The Road Ahead

Colorado State

Last year: 3-9 (2-6 MWC), no bowl game

Recap: Colorado State’s season was fine for the first 6.99 games. It wasn’t GOOD, mind you. You wouldn’t make this meal again. But, like, it’s okay, we don’t need to order a pizza or anything, it just didn’t come together the way I’d hoped. Just moderately overcooked and a little underseasoned. Kind of a funny aftertaste. Maybe I’ll have a bowl of cereal later. They lost to FCS playoff semifinalist South Dakota State and SEC Media Day attendee Vanderbilt to open the year, but they beat Toledo, held a halftime lead over #5 Iowa (y’all remember THAT moment in time?) before losing by 10, and beat San Jose State and New Mexico to reach 3-3. They then staged a stirring fourth quarter comeback against eventual Mountain West champion Utah State, reaching the 24-yard line with 11 seconds left and a chance to kick a game winning field goal to move to 4-3.

That’s when the season hit the “oops, I mistook the salt for the sugar and the ricin for the salt” stage. With the clock stopped for a first down, Colorado State could have spiked the ball. But instead, they chose to rush the field goal unit onto the field for a cluster of a field goal attempt that missed wide left. They lost, 26-24. And then they lost their last five games by a combined 84 points and super-fired Steve Addazio.

In hindsight, I probably could have just led with “Steve Addazio.” It would have saved a lot of words.

When last we saw them: Michigan has only played Colorado State once, defeating coach* Urban Meyer and the Rams 24-14 in the 1994 Holiday Bowl.

*wide receivers coach

who is this he keeps flirting with me

This team is as frightening as: Jarts. Quite fun, and moderately less dangerous than the description would make them seem (“spears to throw way up in the air… but for kids!”), but they are banned for a reason. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Colorado State was hamstrung by a monumentally incompetent doofus of a head coach. Sure, there are transition costs with a new coaching regime, but simply no having THAT guy as their coach raises the floor.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Jay Norvell is a good coach who will probably turn Colorado State around pretty quickly. But not “Week 1 in Ann Arbor” quickly.

When they play Michigan: FOOTBALL.

First game: @ Michigan, noon, ABC

---------------------

Hawai’i

Last year: 6-7 (3-5 MWC); made Hawai’i Bowl but the Hawai’i Bowl got COVID’d

Recap: ***CAUTION: GOOD PLACE SPOILERS AHEAD***

Hawai’i’s season didn’t scream “disaster” on the surface. Six wins, including their first win over a ranked opponent since 2010, might give the casual observer reason to think Todd Graham had things moving in the right direction. But there were some red flags. They finished #86 in SP+, and four of their six wins came against Portland State, New Mexico State, New Mexico State, and Late Stage Addazio Stellar Collapse Colorado State. And no, that isn’t a typo. They played New Mexico State ⁠— one of the worst teams in all of FCS, finishing #120 in SP+ ⁠— twice in four games.

And then, the twist. It was basically the plot of the NBC show The Good Place; the players thought they were in paradise, but they slowly came to realize that they were actually being tortured by a gaslighting demon. The only difference is that Graham somehow managed to get through Season 2 before that fact came to light.

On December 14, Marc Delucchi of SFGate ran an in-depth look at Todd Graham’s program, enumerating the ways in which his players saw him as, to put it politely, a dickbutt. Long known as a “disciplinarian,” players described a culture of verbal abuse, threats, indifference to player well-being, and general dickbuttery. An unusual number of players, including quarterback Chevan Cordeiro, leading rusher Dae Dae Hunter, leading receiver Nick Mardner, leading tackler/TFL’er/sack-getter Darius Musasau, and Todd Graham’s SON Michael Graham. The Hawai’i State Senate held a real actual hearing into whether Graham was a bad person. A week later, he resigned. And there was much rejoicing.

***END OF GOOD PLACE SPOILERS***

Seriously though, go watch The Good Place. It’s only four seasons, and it’s really good.

When last we saw them: Michigan has played Hawai’i three times, winning all three by an average of 36 points. The most recent was a 63-3 blowout in 2016 that saw Wilton Speight, Shane Morris, and John O’Korn complete 17 of 20 passes for 206 yards and 3 TDs.

This team is as frightening as: Hawai’i Volcanoes National Park.

Should be an interesting and entertaining little jaunt, and should produce some fun memories. In theory you can get burned, but the number of warning signs you would have to ignore is pretty staggering. It basically can’t really hurt you unless you let it, and by far the bigger risk is choking on volcanic smog, or ⁠— and I am not making this term up ⁠— vog. Fear Level = 3

Michigan should worry about: Hawai’i was hamstrung by a monumentally incompetent doofus of a head coach. Sure, there are transition costs with a new coaching regime, but simply no having THAT guy as their coach raises the floor.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Hawai’i hasn’t had a top 115 recruiting class nationally in the last four seasons, and they experienced the aforementioned exodus of what little ‘talent’ they still had. They also lose their seven leading tacklers from last year.

When they play Michigan: Poor Damn Carl Grapentine.

First game: vs. Vanderbilt, 10:30 p.m. on August 27, CBSSN

 

UConn

Last year: 1-11, emphatically no bowl game

Recap: Yes, yes, I know. We’re getting to the real opponents. I swear. Just hang with us. I’m sorry it has to be like this for the moment. Here. Have a GIF.

So. UConn.

Where to begin with UConn.

Last year, out of 130 FBS teams, UConn was:

• #129 in points per game
• #129 in offensive yards per play
• #130 in yards per pass attempt
• #130 in passer rating
• #121 in yards per carry
• #120 in sacks per game allowed
• #129 in first downs per game
• #130 in third down conversion rate

We usually do a List Of Statistical Sadness (or L.O.S.S.) section like this for Rutgers, and it’s usually depressing. But at least Rutgers plays in the Big Ten East. UConn played one of the softest schedules in college football, including games against Holy Cross, Army, Wyoming, Vanderbilt, UMass, Yale, and MTSU. And they still managed… that.

yeah, dawg

UConn has won four games in its last three seasons, defeating Rhode Island, Wagner, UMass (the year UMass finished 1-11) and Yale. They haven’t had a top-100 recruiting class in any of the past four seasons in the 247 composite, with those four recruiting classes reeling in a *combined* total of one (1) player ranked in the top 1000 nationally.

And then, for some unknown reason, Randy Edsall quit. Well, that’s not entirely accurate. After their week 2 loss to Holy Cross, Edsall announced he would be retiring at the end of the season. The next day, though, he announced that he would be retiring right now-ish.

When last we saw them: Michigan has played UConn twice. The first was the christening of the newly Luxury Box’d Big House in 2010. Michigan cruised to a 30-10 victory that was most notable as the first deployment of a fully armed and operational Denard Robinson.

The second game was notable for… other reasons. Michigan, a week after narrowly dodging a Toledo-level upset against Akron, crawled into East Whateveringham and found themselves trailing an awful UConn squad 21-7 in the second half before extracting the very last of the Brady Hoke Horseshoe-Up-The-Butt luck and escaping with a 24-21 win.

This team is as frightening as: A cantaloupe.

Sorry, no analogy or anything. It was just the least frightening thing I could think of in the 0.7 seconds I allocated to my brain to contemplate the question. Cantaloupe. Fear Level = melon

Michigan should worry about: UConn was hamstrung by… yeah.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I’m not sure I can articulate how bad this team has been in the last five years.

When they play Michigan: Last year against Northern Illinois, 85 Michigan players saw the field. That’s the over/under.

First game: @ Utah State, 4:00 p.m. on August 27, FS1

 

Maryland

Last year: 7-6 (3-6 B1G); won Pinstripe Bowl over Virginia Tech, 54-10

Recap: By now, you know the trope. And, sure enough, it once again came to pass.

They started 4-0, including a win over West Virginia. Then Billie Joe Armstrong awoke and Maryland went to Kinnick. The Terps threw six interceptions, but the real turning point in the game ⁠— and the Terps’ season ⁠— was when Maryland’s outstanding wide receiver Dontay Demus shattered his leg on a kickoff return and fumbled the ball at the Maryland 6 in the process. They went on to lose 51-10. They then lost big to the Big Four in the B1G East and Minnesota by an average of 29 points per game.

Maryland did manage to beat Indiana and Rutgers to achieve bowl eligibility, and they smacked Virginia Tech in the Pinstripe Bowl.

When last we saw them: Harbaugh challenged an illegal man downfield penalty on a 14 yard gain in with a 41-point lead in the fourth quarter, because he wanted Carter Selzer to get credit for his first career catch. Jim Harbaugh: big fan of (a) his guys, and (b) FOOTBALL JUSTICE.

Beyond that, it was a pretty mundane murder. Michigan got offensive, defense, and special teams scores. Donovan Edwards caught 10 passes for 170 yards (a Michigan RB record). It was Michigan’s a sixth straight win over Maryland, each of which were by at least 21 points. Michigan actually has a higher scoring margin against Maryland than they do against Rutgers (33.7 vs. 33.1 points per game), despite the fact that there is a 78-point defeat lingering on Rutgers’ ledger like a taco fart in an elevator.

This team is as frightening as: Poor Man’s Ohio State if Kerry Coombs was still the defensive coordinator and CJ Stroud tried to play quarterback with an eyepatch. Fear Level = 6

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Look, I love a good football incompetence meme as much as anyone. And yes, over the last five normal seasons (excluding 2020, because there was no September Maryland in 2020), Maryland is 15-4 in September and 10-33 after September. But “September Maryland” is really just shorthand for “Maryland against bad teams.” 4 of those 15 wins came over FCS teams, and 4 more came over middling Group of 5 teams. Excluding the (absolutely hilarious) win over Texas in 2018, none of those 15 wins came over teams that finished better than 7-6.

Michigan should worry about: Between Rakim Jarrett, Dontay Demus, and Florida transfer Jacob Copeland, Maryland has a legitimately terrifying wide receiver group, and they have a quarterback who, for better or worse, is not afraid to sling the ball. This will probably be the biggest non-Ohio State test for Michigan’s secondary on the entire schedule, and would be higher if the offensive line could give Taulia Tagovialoa any time.

When they play Michigan: Maryland is a 40% of a complete football team. This is a significant upgrade over the non-conference schedule.

First game: vs. Buffalo, noon, BTN

 

Iowa

Last year: 10-4 (7-2 B1G); lost Big Ten Championship game to Michigan by many; lost Citrus Bowl to Kentucky, 20-17

Recap: Iowa… was Iowa. They Iowa’d so goddamn hard that it is impossible to imagine anything Iowaing harder.

The Hawkeyes went 10-4 despite not beating a single team that finished ranked in the Top-25. In fact, they didn’t FACE a team in the regular season that finished ranked in the Top 25. But their resume looks all shiny because they had wins over #17 Indiana, #9 Iowa State, and #4 Penn State… who finished the season with a combined record of 16-22. And they were outgained in the Iowa State game by nearly 2 yards per play. And they were well on their way to losing to Penn State before Sean Clifford exploded. And they should have lost to Nebraska except for some special teams hilarity. And they only beat Northwestern by 5. On the season, they were outgained on a yards-per-play basis. But they won 10 games. Because reasons.

The result? They reached as high as #2 in the polls, made the Big Ten Championship Game, and finished ranked #23, all by doing N O T H I N G.

When last we saw them:

This team is as frightening as:

Wait wait wait, you can’t do that.

Do what?

Name a The Rock yet. You can’t do that until at least Week 1. There are rules.

There are literally not. And are you going to sit there with a straight face and tell me Iowa ISN’T The Rock this year?

THERE IS A PROTOCOL HERE. THIS DATES BACK TO THE ELDERS.

Heiko? Dude, I’m like 10 years older than Heiko.

…

OKAY FINE.

[Seth]

This team is as frightening as: Actor and former professional wrestler Dwayne Johnson starring in a remake of an unnamed 1996 Michael Bay film about Ed Harris taking over Alcatraz. Fear Level = 7

This feels like cheating.

Technically compliant: the best kind of compliant.

Michigan should worry about: Kinnick magic is the dumbest magic. It’s like, if a genie asked you, “what would you like your magic power to be,” most people would say, “I’d like to be able to fly” or “I would like super-strength.” Iowa chose “the ability to cause those around me to void their bowels at my whim.”

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Iowa hasn’t scored more than 24 points against Michigan since RichRod was here, and they haven’t scored more than 24 points against an opponent that finished in the Top 25 since they put up 55 points against Ohio State in 2017. I am skeptical Iowa can rely on holding Michigan to fewer than 25 points this year.

When they play Michigan: Maybe Dumb Kinnick Magic strikes. But it feels a lot like Iowa is bringing a rock to a laser fight.

First game: vs. South Dakota State, noon, FS1

 

Indiana

Last year: 2-10 (0-9 B1G), no bowl game

Recap: In the year 536 A.D., a massive volcanic eruption in Iceland blanketed Europe and parts of Asia in ash-induced darkness for 18 months. According to Byzantine historian Procopius, “during this year a most dread portent took place… for the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during the whole year… and it seemed exceedingly like the sun in eclipse, for the beams it shed were not clear.” This caused global temperatures to plummet, triggering the Late Antiquity Little Ice Age. Chinese chroniclers recorded snow in August. Crops failed, and starvation and famine were rampant for years. This was followed by (and possibly helped to precipitate) the Plague of Justinian, the first true outbreak of bubonic plague in Europe, which killed somewhere between a third and a half of the entire Eastern Roman Empire in just a few years. Modern scholars estimate that it took Europe a century to recover from these few years of natural calamity and the resulting societal strife.

So, I guess what I’m saying is that Indiana’s 2021 season could have been worse.

When last we saw them: Michigan caught Indiana well into the spiraly part of the downward spiral. Their early season struggles were of the “struggling for a team that started the season ranked #17” variety. They got blown out by Iowa, but mostly because they turned the ball over. They walloped Idaho and beat a pretty decent Western Kentucky. They were even moderately competitive with Cincinnati. But by the time they arrived in Ann Arbor, they were 0-5 in Big Ten play and were rolling out freshman Donaven McCulley at quarterback. It… did not go well.

This team is as frightening as: #CHAOSTEAM, circa 2015-2017, but right after nap time. They might need to wake up a bit before they can play. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: Indiana might be bad… but the last couple of decades do not support the notion that “Indiana is bad” will necessarily lead to “Indiana will not play Michigan in a stupid and stupidly close game for no discernable reason.”

Michigan can sleep soundly about: This was going to be a rebuilding year even if 2021 had gone to plan. And, again, 2021 did NOT go to plan.

When they play Michigan: Michigan won 15 in a row against Indiana. Then they lost one. Then they won 24 in a row. Then they lost one. The current win streak stands at 1, so we can confidently expect Michigan to win at least the next 32 games, and possibly more; it’s unclear whether the curve is linear or geometric. But math says Michigan is safe for at least next generation. And math never lies.

First game: vs. Illinois, 8:00 p.m. Friday, FS1

 

Join us next week, when we discuss real, actual football teams.