THE ESSENTIALS

WHAT	#49 Michigan (4-4, 0-0)   vs #69 Indiana (6-1, 1-0)
WHERE	Crisler Arena Ann Arbor, MI
WHEN	9 PM
THE LINE	Kenpom: M-6 Torvik: M-4
TELEVISION	Peacock (stream)

THE OVERVIEW

I guarantee in twelve weeks from now somebody looking at the Big Ten standings is going to turn to his friend and ask "When do we play Indiana" and she's going to be like "Did we already?" and someone will finally seek the Enlightenment of the Great and Powerful Internet and declare "I guess we did?"

Yes, dear people of the future, Michigan and Indiana did (do) meet once this year. It is at 9 o'clock at night on a Tuesday with half the town still comatose from three months of football punctuated by aggressive bullshit whack-a-mole on the internet. Michigan's basketball team has also shown signs of arguing with Twitter trolls into the wee hours. Dug McDaniel's hot afternoon beyond the arc kept them alive for a golden opportunity to steal what would have looked like an impressive victory in Oregon. Alas, the late out-of-bounds review gods were wroth, as were the free throw gods in the single-bonus, and Oregon managed to tie and win in overtime. Michigan limps home to begin the tiny December portion of Big Ten play at 4-4, still desperately seeking a defense and scoring options other than Dug Go Zoom.

Indiana's record looks comparatively pristine, but their Kenpom rating is down in the mid-major tier thanks to an early season schedule of Gulf Coast (243), Army (352), Wright State (129), Louisville (161), Harvard (147) and Maryland (70). There's also a loss in there to #4 UConn that wasn't remotely competitive. The FGC, Army, and Wright State games, on the other hand, were actually contested. This will be their first road game of the season, and their only meeting with Michigan unless we see them in the BTT again.

[After THE JUMP: New team, still no spacing]

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Llewellyn returned, but he's pretty rusty.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

THE THEM

Reneau was waiting. [Campredon]

You'll remember the backcourt, but the forwards are all fresh faces. They are top-50 recruits, but what they are not are shooters. Michigan has struggled thus far against athletic teams that don't quite know how to score, but IU is more on their level: a bunch of players who seem like they should be difficult to score on, but haven't been yet. They run out two bigs, run horn sets they call "Buddy Ball" and are leaning heavily on a sophomore four and size advantages.

PF Malik Reneau, the #30 player in the composite last year, has taken the proverbial sophomore leap. Gird thy loins for shirtlessness.

Now gird thyself for the grossest game this side of Wisconsin, because when they say "can score in all kinds of ways" they mean he really does have an uncanny ability to throw the ball at the basket and have it go.

He is generating most of their points, drawing doubles and triples, and passing out of them for the profile of a point forward.

That was all working okay until Maryland managed to pressure him into a boatload of turnovers. The lefty's not a threat to shoot a three, but he is a threat to crash the boards and score with an array of moves near the basket, and a matchup problem for every team that's faced him. He also has major ups—if Tschetter can get out of this one without going on a poster it'll be a miracle—and makes his free throws, so fouling isn't an option. Michigan will be a new test, since he's played a bunch of teams that weren't able to match Reneau in size.

Defensively, Reneau is…their best offensive player. He's more of a small center than a wing despite the headband-guy hustle and 5-star athleticism, and can be slow to challenge the arc. His foul rate has come down a lot from last year, but both UConn and Maryland were able to get him in foul trouble. Reneau is headed for a Trevion Williams-like career, but IU really doesn't know what to do with the 30-40% of minutes he can't play.

C Kel'el Ware was mentioned in the last hoops preview as the blue chip center who bailed on Oregon because they had two more ahead of him. They might regret that, as Ware has spent his time in Indiana feasting on tiny centers, most recently Maryland's Julian Reese, the mouse in the house that Dickinson used to enjoy terrorizing. UConn's Donovan Clingan shut Ware down, but absent a 7-2 guy he's probably going to be in there putbacking you to death. His block rate was an INSANE 8.9 last year at Oregon, and it's hovering near 6.0 this year. He will step out for a three, but it's the Dickinson kind—he hit 27% of them last year on medium volume. The former McDonald's All-American has been a monster on the defensive boards.

He's not Tracye Jackson-Davis, though. Or at least he's not the well-respected TJD they finally graduated; Ware has a few too similarities with the early-career TJD who was dogged for his motor. Thus far: yeah, I see it. He has a soft touch from the outside, but tends to go with the elbow if he's not set up or tapping it back in. He's a smooth rim protector and athletic enough to step out without disrupting the defense. He's a five-star center. They do as they do.

PG Xavier Johnson you know, the former Pitt point guard who takes long forays into the lane and short forays onto the disabled list with high frequency. He may or not be back after missing the Maryland game. When not flinging his body at the basket he's a good shooter who soaks up a lot of usage and sparts for a lot of fouls. This is far less annoying on the road, where his free throw rate dips by half. He's a decent defender with good size, and will shoot threes over your head if you don't put a wing type on him.

Freshman SF Mackenzie Mgbako has the recruiting profile of a Jett Howard and has thus far been Jett except he's on a 3/20 cold streak on threes. He's a good shooter inside the arc, however, has made all 15 of his free throws, and the shooting was the #1 thing said about him as a recruit, so the long ball should be coming along eventually? What makes him dangerous is—like Jett—he can that shot off from just about anywhere. The five-star (#8 overall on the composite) recruit was committed to Duke for a time, and was arrested in October for getting super mad at a Taco Bell drive-thru, but didn't miss any time for it. What he does miss time for is his defense, which is understandable for a true freshman seven games into his college career.

Galloway: still around. [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

SG Trey Galloway never portaled, but is having a hideous shooting season after an uncharacteristically good one last season, but he's an able finisher who will get himself to the basket if you don't have someone shooing him away from it. The now-senior has developed his defensive game over the years.

The bench:

• Freshman PG Gabe Cupps is getting a lot of time on the court, especially with Johnson's injury, but you have to look at the box score to tell. He gets the seldom-deployed Ghost tag.
• SF/PF Anthony Walker is a Miami (YTM) grad transfer they bring in when Mgbako's lost or Reneau picks up a quick two fouls. He is NOT a shooter, carrying a 20% make rate on 145 career attempts. He's not really much of anything offensive, actually, except he can bull his way to the rim and pick up fouls. He will block some shots when matched on smaller guys.
• Sophomore C Kaleb Banks doesn't play much because Ware is approaching TJD-level in staying on the court. He's a 3-year project in year 2, showing signs of rebounding prowess and switchability, and he can shoot from outside if called upon.
• W CJ Gunn gets the brick, and in his case this is a lifetime achievement, after going 2/24 last year in mop-up time. The only thing he's added to his game this year is turnovers.

THE TEMPO FREE

Overall numbers still because "conference" is one game.

They are last among majors in 3-point percentage, and justifiably dead last in the country at taking them. The towers will play their buddy ball down low and try to draw contact.

THE KEYS

Nkamhoua vs Reneau. Finding a matchup for him has been the undoing of every team that he's faced save UConn, who put a 7-2 guy on Ware and everybody set to forcing bad passes from Reneau. If Nkamhoua can handle him on his own, IU has nowhere else to go for points right now, save Mgbako suddenly finding his shot.

Refs vs Reneau. Or get a couple of quick whistles on him and staple him to the bench.

No Tweeting. This team is built to take advantage of the fruit-flavored whistles in Assembly Hall, and Reneau in particular will get his chest up into three guys and start flailing about until a) the ball goes in, and b) they call something on someone for something somewhere. Michigan cannot afford to go long stretches without Reed or Nkamhoua.

Don't get dunked on. Or if you do, Will Tschetter, make your threes. Michigan doesn't have the center size or depth to withstand both Ware and Reneau.

Ball Movement. They have a few guys who cannot get out to the perimeter, or just won't. This would be a good game to get the outside passing game going, make the extra one, and don't go cold.

Limit Xavier Johnson Adventure Fun Time to the rim. I hate it when that guy goes off. Nothing against the player personally, but PGs who shoot over your head or fly into the lane chest first for cheap whistles remind me too much of other players I hated.

Please don't be the stupid game where the 3/20 guy makes everything. Mgbako stay cold.

Don't fall asleep. It's 9 o'clock on a Tuesday. You've got one UFR to write before you get to the holiday and can take your time with the Bama film. You can do this Seth.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by six.