9/10/2022 – Michigan 56, Hawaii 10 – 2-0

There's a certain point where you're just unreasonably invested in some guy making a simple throw against a very bad team. JJ McCarthy rolled out on his second drive and had Erick All in the flat. Hawaii's safety was flying up at McCarthy, because McCarthy ran as much as he passed in Michigan's opener. All was open, and all McCarthy had to do was not screw up an easy play.

He did not. He flipped the ball out to All, who picked up a first down. Hooray.

I mean, what else was left? He'd just thrown a (nearly) in-stride bomb. As soon as he came in against Colorado State he ran for a touchdown, juking a safety along the way. He throws outs on a line, with velocity you can hear. He is a wide array of talents in one package. And so then there's just one thing left: don't be weird. Please, please, please don't be weird.

Don't be really good at the hard things and turf every screen. Don't have exactly one velocity everything is thrown at. Don't spend most plays bugging out of clean pockets. Don't call all your offensive linemen "Scooter 1," "Scooter 2," and so forth and so on. Don't watch defensive ends tear hell for leather at the running back and hand it off anyway. Don't throw the ball short, unless you should. When you throw the ball long, either throw it to open guys or give your guys a chance even if they're covered. Check into all the right plays. Have a mind like a diamond and eyes that burn like cigarettes.

That sort of thing.

You know, just be MechaGodzilla, the quarterback. Be instantly great, three standard deviations above the mean. Don't be one of those weird guys in the middle of the bell curve. Just throw the ball to the tight end so he can run. And do it every time, without variation, unless the defense requires you to vary. As they inevitably will.

Be perfect. Be fucking perfect. Be an unassailable tower of precision and might. Do everything right and nothing wrong and if you do something wrong fix it immediately. Make cacio e pepe without the sauce breaking.

And JJ McCarthy said "…ok"?

[Barron]

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This is the point where you dump out the caveats because someone in the comments is going to go "actually it was just Hawaii," but no, not this time. Go ahead, guy in comments. I acknowledge that other teams aren't going to accidentally run zero coverage on first and ten. I acknowledge that Roman Wilson is seven times faster than any Rainbow Warrior. Now you acknowledge, buddy. You sit there and say "holy shit" softly to yourself, just once.

Yeah, that feels real good.

I HAVE SEEN THINGS BUDDY

I have seen John O'Korn come in against Purdue and look like GOD HIMSELF. I have seen the NUMBER ONE DEFENSE IN AMERICA give up sixty septillion points to Ohio State crossing routes. I HAVE SEEN A SHIMMERING IN THE DISTANCE THAT SLOWLY RESOLVES ITSELF INTO A QUARTERBACK OF SUCH UTTER PERFECTION HE BEATS NOTRE DAME'S HEAD IN DESPITE SPOTTING THEM A VERY SILLY TOUCHDOWN AND HAVING NO OFFENSIVE LINE AT ALL. I have seen the ending of several LSU games.

I have perceived! Many times! I have built an entire persona around perceiving and relating things!

I'm ready. I am ready to make that call, the call no one ever mentions unless you're wrong and then every time you breathe a 16-year-old Michigan State fan puts a screenshot of it on your forehead. Well, screw you, @oldtakesexposed. I ain't afraid of you.

JJ McCarthy is it.

I'm in. I'm sold. He's never going to throw an interception. He's going to average 15 yards an attempt. He is going to slip out of a sack by detaching one of his arms and regrow it at halftime. He's going to NYC next year. Hell, maybe this year. Whatever. Make an outlandish prediction. I endorse it. JJ McCarthy is going to make Nick Saban quit football. He's going to invent shoes. He's gonna make Pluto a planet again. It's all happening.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

touchdown [Patrick Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 JJ McCarthy. If Ronnie Bell had caught that slant and picked up 11 yards—and he was probably getting at least 20—McCarthy would have averaged 20 YPA. Also he ran the ball once for 16 yards. That'll do, pig. That'll do.

#2 Blake Corum. Like last week, Corum is sort of a default pick in a game where almost nobody got to do a lof of stuff. On the other hand, nearly 10 YPC on nine carries will do nicely.

#3(t) Mazi Smith, Kris Jenkins, Mike Morris. Folks, if you set aside RJ Moten's four Michigan's leading tacklers in this game were Caden Kolesar, Micah Pollard, Deuce Spurlock, Jaydon Hood, and Kenneth Grant. My kingdom for a game competitive enough that someone can actually earn a spot for doing more than one thing. Most of the front gets this because Hawaii's ground game was picking one guy to double and losing to the other two guys every time. Two points each to marginally distinguish them from the HMs.

Honorable mention: Ronnie Bell had a drop and a fumble that knocked him down here but also caught six balls. Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson both hit multiple big plays. Donovan Edwards had a personal touchdown drive. Rayshaun Benny and Mason Graham looked more or less like starters. Makari Paige nearly had an INT and had a nice PBU.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

10: Mazi Smith (#1 CSU, T3 Hawaii), Blake Corum (#2 CSU, #2 Hawaii)
8: JJ McCarthy (#1 Hawaii)
3: Junior Colson (#3 CSU)
2: Mike Morris (T3 Hawaii), Kris Jenkins (T3 Hawaii), Ronnie Bell (HM CSU, HM Hawaii), Roman Wilson (HM CSU, HM Hawaii),
1: Braiden McGregor (HM CSU), Eyabi Anoma (HM CSU), Derrick Moore (HM CSU), Jaylen Harrell (HM CSU), Rod Moore (HM CSU), Makari Paige (HM Hawaii), Rayshaun Benny (HM Hawaii), Mason Graham (HM Hawaii), Cornelius Johnson (HM Hawaii), Donovan Edwards (HM Hawaii).

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

McCarthy rips the ball out of a mesh point and fires a laser to Ronnie Bell for an RPO touchdown.

Honorable mention: Ten of McCarthy's eleven other throws. Davis Warren fires an eyepopping dart to Max Bredeson. Mike Morris busts through for a sack.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

People boo Cade McNamara. WTF.

Honorable mention: Rain delay. Hawaii rushing touchdown looks pretty bad for third stringers.

OFFENSE

[Barron]

The zip. Your author's McCarthy play of the game was not any of the deep shots but the first and ten RPO immediately after the post route to Cornelius Johnson.

After the game Bell said that play is primarily a run, so McCarthy is fighting gravity a bit to pull that ball and rifle it in. He does so—for a moment I thought Bell wasn't going to be able to get his hands up in time—and puts it right on his WR's facemask. That's one way to not worry about redzone issues.

Last week I said something about how you don't win an audition by mumbling in the corner. McCarthy went for it, and got it, and now he gets to keep doing that.

That post and friends. McCarthy appeared to induce the safety jump-up on the dig by looking at it and moving on. Similarly, on the shot to Edwards down the sideline he's able to hold a safety who is cheating hard to the mismatch by momentarily looking away from where he knows he's going presnap. Then consider the three deep throws themselves:

• Absurdly wide open Roman Wilson is given a no-whammies ball that slows him up slightly but not enough to prevent the easy TD.
• Open but not absurdly open Cornelius Johnson gets an easy to catch arcing ball that hits him right in stride.
• Bracketed Donovan Edwards gets a line drive that is there too fast for the safety to get over the top.

In addition to look-offs designed to keep his primary target open, I think I caught McCarthy getting to second reads a couple of times. Third never, because Hawaii. But that's all that's left, right? Arm, accuracy, speed: these are all established. If he makes the right decisions it's moon time.

[Barron]

Unlocked? The guy Wilson blazed by was a 190 pound safety type. One who plays for Hawaii, yes, but good God that was five yards of separation in about 15 yards of runway. I spent much of last year banging the table for Cornelius Johnson as a deep threat, and Wilson's obviously an eyepopping guy.

I don't want to get over my skis here: it's hard to remember at this instant but Michigan's offense last year was one of the most explosive ones in the country. So meaningful improvement from that will be hard. I think it's going to happen nonetheless.

[Barron]

Real? Davis Warren's strike to Max Bredeson was not Bredeson's first appearance in the game. It's a little hard to tell given the level of competition but it certainly seems like he's going to rotate in when things get tougher.

Also in tight end subplots: another game in which when Michigan went heavy they ran over a 2TE side with Schoonmaker and Honigford. All had a couple moments but is not likely to come in for much +/- grading in UFR this week. 

Also in "real?" Yeah that was a strike from Warren…

…and then they used him in their arc game for a first down. We seem to have a third string quarterback controversy as well.

[Barron]

Stokes: intriguing. We've only got a half-dozen CJ Stokes carries so far; in them he's seemed like a decisive downhill runner with good vision and a size/speed combo that appeals. Alex compared him to Karan Higdon and that seems like a reasonable comp.

Somewhat alarming. Zinter got torched on a sack of McNamara and there's a similar incident on an early run play. That DT might be surprisingly good—his quickness leapt off the screen—but it's something to keep an eye on going forward. We're expecting big steps forward from the guards as part of our overall optimism. Zinter graded well against CSU, FWIW.

DEFENSE

uhhhhhhh. Surely I'll think of something. In general, though: not a lot to say about the cornerbacks, who spent most of the night watching balls fly well over their heads. Also not a lot to say about pass rush since Hawaii was one of those quick-game-or-fade offenses.

That's the idea. Hawaii's first snap saw a play-long double on Mazi Smith that more or less worked: Smith got put a couple yards downfield and one of the guys was able to get out on a linebacker. It did not matter because Mike Morris and Kris Jenkins both shot their guys into the backfield. This was a relatively common occurrence during the Wormley era. Having that giant end-type substance in your 4-3 under makes it hard to get away with doubling the problem DT.

[Barron]

The bag of tricks. Jaylen Harrell got a free run on Hawaii's first third down on a variety of stunt I'm not sure I've seen before. Junior Colson blitzed up the middle for two steps before veering right, blocking the right tackle and giving Harrell an opportunity to blow up the QB.

The OL bailed, the RB stepped up to take the linebacker, and then… whoops. Teams will task their RB with picking up a blitzing LB so this really puts offenses in a bind. Best case scenario you've now got a DE charging at a running back up the middle, which is a mismatch.

This seems to bode well for the "Jesse Minter will blitz opponents into the asylum" theory proffered by the offseason chatter. (Also that ball went backwards and should have been ruled a fumble, Harrell was robbed of a sack.)

Early yet, but Mikey likes it. We had another two incidents were Mike Sainristil got tested on the edge and was able to set up in the right spot, fend off blocks, and make a tackle. 

Barrett as full-time ILB. Nikhai Hill-Green was reportedly dressed but did not play. In his place Michigan went with Michael Barrett, replacing Kalel Mullings from the opener. Not a surprise there since Mullings was the only Michigan front seven player in the two deep to check in with a negative score last week, and Barrett played pretty well. We've always liked him as a viper:

LB on top hash

He's had issues making reads in the run game as an ILB, likely due to inexperience, and still may not be a good fit against the heavy running teams on the roster. But with Iowa's implosion that's Michigan State and nobody else.

Realistic DT depth chart. Mason Graham is technically a starter; more realistically he and Rayshaun Benny are the backup DTs. Michigan got them in early and often here, with extended time in the first quarter. Both guys looked good, capable of winning against single blocking consistently and active. Benny had an edge sack(!) off a stunt erased by a questionable penalty.

[Barron]

Offseason hype gets a point. Makari Paige was getting talked up this fall after a couple of years of radio silence, and that talk has some evidence to back it up now. For one, Paige is rotating in regularly and Michigan is playing a lot of three safety defenses on passing downs. That alone has some value. Then in this game he had the near INT you see above when he was able to get over the top of a stop-and-go. He banged into Turner just as the ball was arriving, unfortunately.

Then on the next snap he jumped a slant route for a PBU.

He may have been a hair early but they're never calling that, especially when Paige is going for the ball, not the man. 

[Barron]

Playing a weird guy. That's Amorion Walker with the no-nameplate #1 jersey playing cornerback above. Walker is 6'4", so this is probably just a lark… but if it's not a lark, I mean…? Right?

There's only one other recent Michigan player who was a corner with that kind of size: Jeremy Clark. Clark started his career at safety for obvious reasons, then transitioned into the sort of corner who just plays inside leverage all day because if you can fit a fade route over him you get a cookie. That was enough to get him drafted in the sixth round despite tearing his ACL four games into his senior season.

Walker has way more hype about his athleticism than Clark ever did. Meanwhile wide receiver depth chart seems like it's in good hands over the next few years, so this seems like a good die to roll. I thought the holding call he picked up was pretty weak, FWIW.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Jake Moody for Not Groza. Moody FGAs: 0. No offense to Jake Moody, but that might be the best stat from this game after Michigan's redzone struggles a year ago.

they all fall down [Barron]

Henning debate. We had an extended debate about AJ Henning as a punt return decisions guy—his bonafides once the ball is in his hands are well-established—on the podcast. I forgot to mention that I thought Henning's somewhat odd decision to grab the ball on Hawaii's first punt after it had been rolling may have been a just-in-case moment after the ball came pretty close to a Michigan player. I don't think it grazed him and Henning probably didn't either, but better safe than sorry.

MISCELLANEOUS

[Barron]

Wet. It was wet. So they delayed the game, because there was lighting sort of kind of near the stadium. I always find this policy mystifyingly draconian. At no point was thunder audible or lighting visible. I dunno, I miss it when whiskey was a quarter a gallon and life was cheap, I guess. Back to the coal mines, everybody!

Well yeah of course. Brad Robbins is still cosplaying and old-timey strongman so we're still posting pictures of it.

[Barron]

It says something about something that Patrick also got a super close up because he thought "hey this will probably get used":

[Barron]

Very proud of what we've built here.

Ayyyyyyy. More like Fonzie Bell amirite

[Barron]

HERE

Best and Worst:

Best:  First Team Defense Pitching a Shutout

As a team Michigan has outscored their first two opponents by a combined 107-17 differential, but even that understates how lopsided these games have been, especially defensively.  In the first halves of games against CSU and Hawaii, Michigan’s defense has given up 0 points and an average drive length of 9 yards.  Unlike against CSU where Michigan’s defensive line feasted on an overwhelmed and inexperienced offense to the tune of 7 sacks and double-digits TFLs, Hawaii was quick to throw the ball up for grabs almost as soon as the ball was snapped, limiting UM to a single sack and 2 TFLs for the game.  But at no point during the loosely-defined “competitive” portions of this game was Hawaii’s offense able to do much of anything.

GIFs!

State of our Open Threads:

There were 37 mentions of "fire", and nearly all of them came from people who were watching either Iowa / Iowa State or Nebraska / Georgia Southern, so we were far more worried about whether or not Brian Ferentz or Scott Frost would remain employed than anyone on our staff. That said, someone did ask for Carol Hutchins' head at one point - in jest, I am sure.

ELSEWHERE

Hoover Street Rag:

Instead, I wanted to talk about the weirdness of feeling like one needed to have a preference of Cade or JJ in the battle for starting quarterback.  I understand "the choosing" aspect of it; when offered two options, as humans we're going to gravitate toward one or the other for reasons.  Many times in life, the choice of two options is so obvious that we don't even see it as a choice or as something that needs to be decided.  But in many cases, where both options have their merits and deficits, there's a feeling that one needs to render a decision and back up one's opinion with evidence.

Josh Taubman in the Daily:

Up until Saturday’s press conference following Michigan’s win over Hawaii, Harbaugh remained adamant that he had yet to name a starter. He was careful not to praise one player without complementing the other; He mused about his biblical approach and reminded reporters that no one knew what the future held.

This time, though, Harbaugh didn’t have lengthy tribulations to help him dodge questions about naming a starter. It took him less than 30 seconds to prove his mind was made up.

“We’ll start J.J. next week,” Harbaugh said. “He’s earned that by performance, by merit.”