davis warren

Team Maize defeated Team Blue by a score of 17-7 at today's 2024 edition of the Michigan Football spring game. A game that was preceded by the championship ring ceremony and had numerous departed heroes strolling the sideline, the focus on the field was instead on a number of young players trying to make a name for themselves. As in past years, I'm not going to give a play-by-play recap for an exhibition game, but instead will give you a batch of instant reaction takes on what we witnessed: 

Offense

Alex Orji's potential... and areas for improvement. Orji quarterbacked the first drive for Team Blue, as well as the last, with  intermittent snaps in between. In that time we saw some good and some bad from Orji. He varied his touch on throws that showed a decent understanding of quarterbacking, but was mostly throwing checkdown passes. The final drive in particular saw the defense back off (Team Maize had a 10 point lead), ceding the underneath routes and Orji was efficient in connecting on those. But that's what you'd expect any QB at this level to be able to do, so I'm not putting much stock in that. 

However, there were more tantalizing moments. Orji delivered a pass to Max Bredeson with good zip and then sensed pressure before scrambling for a touchdown on the first drive. He also seemed to have another touchdown scramble on the last drive, but it was overturned on a questionable "sack" (the referees blew the play dead in rather dubious fashion). The athleticism and the ability to hit the easy stuff was on display but there were concerning moments. He put a ball behind Tyler Morris on the first drive and forced a laser into double coverage looking for Zack Marshall on the last drive. Orji also showed good pocket presence on a different snap a couple drives earlier, dancing in the pocket and eventually finding an open receiver on 3rd & 5... but he way overthrew his target. I'm not sure if the accuracy and reads are completely where they need to be, but Orji wasn't a total wreck and gave us enough reasons to believe he could plausibly be the QB in 2024. It didn't answer all the questions at the QB position, but there was enough on display to believe Orji could be a successful QB at some point in the future (whether that is in '24 or '25). 

Takes on the other QBs. Davis Warren was the starting QB for Team Maize and just like prior seasons, Warren looked pretty damn good. His arm talent is 100% there, which was most on display on a bomb to Kendrick Bell for a TD: 

🔔🔔🔔

📺 @CFBONFOX pic.twitter.com/G1jgyJAwmO

— Michigan Football (@UMichFootball) April 20, 2024

There were several other strikes that Warren uncorked and he may well have been the most impressive QB today. However, it does feel a little difficult to take all of it seriously because Warren has looked terrific in spring games prior too, which hasn't necessarily translated to regulation games. 

Jayden Denegal was a bit of a disappointment in this one I felt. His drives for Team Maize had some moments, but ultimately left a lot to be desired. Yes he did hit a bomb to Fred Moore, but he also threw a wretched interception to DJ Waller (which was punched out and recovered as a fumble), threw a ball that was batted at the line, fumbled a snap that killed the two minute drill in the second quarter, and had a couple other iffy looking throws on the fourth drive. Based on the feel of this game, it would appear that Orji and Warren are the main two in-house contenders for the starting QB this fall. 

Jadyn Davis didn't play a ton, as expected. He threw a nice ball down the sideline for Peyton O'Leary that was PBU'd which showed off his arm talent, but he did appear to miss a wide open receiver on that very play. That was Davis' most notable moment during a short afternoon and based on today I would expect him to redshirt this fall (nothin' wrong with that). 

[AFTER THE JUMP: more takes]

A week and change on from the national title, attention now turns to the basketball program what Team 145 is going to look like. This may be an exercise in futility since there's a distinct chance that Jim Harbaugh takes an NFL job this offseason, throwing everything into a mild state of higgeldy-piggeldy. But they'd probably just plug in Sherrone Moore, avoid significant portal departures, and be more or less the same minus a predilection for weird press conferences.

So.

QUARTERBACK

Obviously the biggest question mark on the team in the aftermath of JJ McCarthy's draft entry. The options on campus do not feel like plugging in JJ McCarthy, to say the least. They are:

• Jayden Denegal, a 6'4" pocket passer who was a high three star on the composite and got a reasonable amount of garbage time last year. He'll be a redshirt sophomore next year.
• Davis Warren, a former walk-on who's looked solid in a couple of spring games but was hurt (probably) much of the year, ceding non-JJ snaps to Denegal.
• Alex Orji, a Tebow-esque runner who got on the field for various snaps down the stretch where he always ran the ball. Michigan did dial up a pass for him in the Rose Bowl but 'Bama covered it and he ran out of bounds for a two yard loss.
• Jadyn Davis, a true freshman who was a five star but has slid down recruiting boards to be a fringe top 100 prospect. Davis did join the team for bowl practices and has buckets of experience in high school.

In the season preview I asserted that the best case scenario for Michigan entering 2024 is that Orji was the clear frontrunner and I still maintain that because we have an indication he does have an elite skill. I'm not sure the Tebow/Denard offense can be a national title winner in the year of our lord 2024; neither am I sure Michigan can pivot a ton of option stuff that would be necessary. Even so: Orji has It on the ground, and I'm not sure anyone else can say they're there as a passer.

[After THE JUMP: loaded RB room… not so loaded WR room] 

Previously: The Story. 

QUARTERBACK: BEAT GEORGIA

GRADE: 5

Two years ago, Michigan won the Big Ten. Hooray! They returned their starting quarterback. Also hooray! But there was this guy, you know, who'd done this as a freshman:

JJ MCCARTHY

As always, hover over abbreviations for explanations.

Nine dead on throws in the rough equivalent of two games, just one Bad Read Xtreme, a +10 grade, excellent decisions at mesh points. Our charting for JJ McCarthy was not over the moon, but this was a true freshman getting spot duty. He wandered into games and out of them, never developing a rhythm but generally executing better than you'd expect. He flashed a crazy arm, and crazy legs. The people wanted him to win the job. The people did not expect him to win the job, because that never happens. Returning, championship QBs do not get deposed.

Then spring chatter turned into fall chatter and Jim Harbaugh announced that he'd be starting Cade McNamara in the opener and McCarthy in game two. Whether this was a genuine response to a tight competition or a way to ease a Big Ten champion starter out of his job will never be known, but McNamara bottled it and McCarthy turned in a 100% downfield success rating; Harbaugh announced the job was McCarthy's and never looked back.

The payoff was another Big Ten title, albeit one that once again leaned heavily on the ground game. Depending on your point of view, Michigan was either 127th or 5th in "run rate over expected," a metric that measures exactly what it sounds like. They finished 3rd nationally in yards per carry. If you squint you could argue that replacing McNamara was beside the point. And maybe it was, if Michigan's goal was to beat Ohio State and win the conference. It is not. Michigan's added a "Beat Georgia" drill to practice, and McCarthy is the guy who looked like he might be able to hang with the Bulldogs when Michigan got blasted in their CFP appearance two years ago.

Flipping to JJ is for this year, when his ceiling blows McNamara's out of the water. He's got to take a step forward. This is about how much of a step:

…the former top-25 recruit made the gamble pay off, winning his first 12 starts and finishing 16th in Total QBR.

Sixteenth is good, but is it national-title good? Over the past four seasons, the title-winning quarterback has averaged a 91.4 Total QBR, completing 72% of his passes at 14.2 yards per completion. McCarthy in 2022: 79.1 Total QBR, 65% completion rate, 13.1 yards per completion. He came up big in the last three games of the season (57% completion rate, but at 17.8 yards per completion). Was that a sign of things to come?

Well, Dude, we just don't know.

[After THE JUMP: salami]