A week and change on from the national title, attention now turns to the basketball program what Team 145 is going to look like. This may be an exercise in futility since there's a distinct chance that Jim Harbaugh takes an NFL job this offseason, throwing everything into a mild state of higgeldy-piggeldy. But they'd probably just plug in Sherrone Moore, avoid significant portal departures, and be more or less the same minus a predilection for weird press conferences.

So.

QUARTERBACK

Obviously the biggest question mark on the team in the aftermath of JJ McCarthy's draft entry. The options on campus do not feel like plugging in JJ McCarthy, to say the least. They are:

• Jayden Denegal, a 6'4" pocket passer who was a high three star on the composite and got a reasonable amount of garbage time last year. He'll be a redshirt sophomore next year.
• Davis Warren, a former walk-on who's looked solid in a couple of spring games but was hurt (probably) much of the year, ceding non-JJ snaps to Denegal.
• Alex Orji, a Tebow-esque runner who got on the field for various snaps down the stretch where he always ran the ball. Michigan did dial up a pass for him in the Rose Bowl but 'Bama covered it and he ran out of bounds for a two yard loss.
• Jadyn Davis, a true freshman who was a five star but has slid down recruiting boards to be a fringe top 100 prospect. Davis did join the team for bowl practices and has buckets of experience in high school.

In the season preview I asserted that the best case scenario for Michigan entering 2024 is that Orji was the clear frontrunner and I still maintain that because we have an indication he does have an elite skill. I'm not sure the Tebow/Denard offense can be a national title winner in the year of our lord 2024; neither am I sure Michigan can pivot a ton of option stuff that would be necessary. Even so: Orji has It on the ground, and I'm not sure anyone else can say they're there as a passer.

[After THE JUMP: loaded RB room… not so loaded WR room] 

RUNNING BACK

[Bryan Fuller]

Donovan Edwards returns so this position is stacked. Kalel Mullings has looked the part both as a runner and a blocker. Ben Hall flashed as a freshman; Cole Cabana will return from injury; freshman Jordan Marshall was a straight-up head to head win over OSU and could be an immediate contributor.

Concerns: can Edwards be more consistent after a season that went nothing, nothing, nothing, a couple nice runs against Penn State, nothing, nothing, wins national title in the first quarter? Will Michigan explore the two-back sets featuring Mullings more? Will an expected step back in passing efficiency slow down the ground game? Etc. But the personnel will be great.

WIDE RECEIVER

The only other spot on next year's team that looks like a potential problem. Tyler Morris returns for his junior season and should be a locked-in #1. In the slot, Semaj Morgan looks like he'll be somewhere between fun and game-breaking once he shakes the freshman stuff.

Then… uh… it got kind of lonely around here. Darrius Clemons and Amorion Walker transferred—Walker spent last year at CB but was likely to move back to WR, per Sam Webb—and Cristian Dixon announced he'd be moving to defense. That leaves Michigan with no other experienced WRs unless scattered snaps for Peyton O'Leary count. The only other non-tiny WRs on the roster are the trio of redshirt freshmen Michigan brought in a year ago: Fredrick Moore, Karmello English, and Kendrick Bell. Neither true freshman looks like the kind of guy to defy Freshman Wide Receivers Suck.

I thought this looked like a situation that someone in the portal would say "hey, clear starting spot for defending national champion" and hop aboard but Michigan whiffed. Jahmal Banks committed to Nebraska, Deion Burks to Oklahoma, and Donaven McCulley returned to Indiana. Hope for reinforcements is not entirely lost—Josh Wallace was a crucial post-spring pickup last year—but the vast majority of portal movement has already come and gone.

Michigan can patch some of the holes with targets for Colston Loveland and Donovan Edwards.

TIGHT END

[Barron]

Colston Loveland and Max Bredeson return and should be amongst the nation's best in their roles. The only TE with a run-blocking grade better than Bredeson last year was his teammate:

Meanwhile Loveland was already up with Roman Wilson and Cornelius Johnson when it came to targets last year—mid-60s for all—and it wouldn't surprise to see Loveland hit triple digits unless it is indeed Orji, whereupon nobody is hitting triple digits.

This is Michigan so they're going to want a third guy, preferably a big inline sort. Marlin Klein, Josh Beetham, Deakon Tonielli, and Zack Marshall are options. I don't think it'll be Klein, who seems like a flex sort redundant with Loveland. Your guess is as good as anyone's.

OFFENSIVE LINE

Trente Jones's departure hurts. Other than McCarthy, everyone else who entered the draft was a stone-cold lock to do so from before the season. Many only had decisions to make because of COVID, and had been long-time starters on a national title team. Those guys don't hurt to lose. Jones, too, only had a decision to make because of COVID but I'd hoped that he saw a clear path to a full-time starting job and would want that both for personal satisfaction and his own draft status. Alas. I don't begrudge anyone their choice to leave; personally I wanted Jones in full flourish next year.

Also: now Michigan cannot run out a line of seniors, fifth-year seniors, and sixth-year seniors.

It seems pretty clear that the interior line will be Gio El-Hadi, Greg Crippen, and Northwestern transfer Josh Priebe. El-Hadi played about a third of the season in 2022 and was pretty good until he ran up against Jer'Zhan Newton; two years on he's a good bet to be a plug-and-play replacement for Trevor Keegan. Crippen sucked it up as Michigan imported back-to-back Rimington candidates in front of him but is clearly the heir apparent. You can read about Priebe in his hello post; he was third-team All Big Ten a year ago, perhaps a bit dubiously.

Tackle is slightly murkier but not a whole lot more. Myles Hinton does return for a sixth year after a season flashing a significant amount of promise, and a significant amount of falling over. He'd dropped to tackle #4 by the end of the season after Michigan clearly wanted him to seize the left tackle job early; he's one of the biggest swing guys on the team because he has massive potential.

The other tackle will probably be Jeff Persi or Andrew Gentry. Like El-Hadi, Persi played in 2022, getting a start against Rutgers. He was just a redshirt freshman then and was middling. Gentry has the recruiting pedigree and Michigan started talking about him like he was the next great tackle last offseason, checking one of our boxes: are they talking about you when they don't need to talk about you? My money is on Gentry.

A line of Hinton/El-Hadi/Crippen/Priebe/Gentry is all but a 100% reset but also looks like it could be one of those Alvarez Wisconsin era reboots where the guys have different names on their backs but are still monsters.

UPSHOT

not just a funny name anymore [Bryan Fuller]

I have to admit this line of thought intrigues me:

Naming my dream: Michigan runs the go-go with Orji, Edwards, and Mullings

— Prettyman (@HoracePrettyman) January 15, 2024

You may remember the go-go from our UNLV preview:

[Brennan Marion] describes his offense like so:

“People say your offense is a spread offense,” Marion said. “It’s not even close to the spread in my mind. It’s a pro-style, triple-option offense. That’s what we’re trying to do. A true West Coast passing game, a triple-option run game and the up-tempo principles of Coach Malzahn.”

Sounds like a huge pain in the ass. I would not be surprised for Michigan to eat some garbage in this game. A more detailed breakdown of the offense can be found in Alex's post; for purposes of this section it's enough to know that the double-RB setup shown above is UNLV's base set and that they will go wildly unbalanced in an attempt to trip up your alignment rules, then throw in a blizzard of end-arounds, fake end-arounds, misdirections on top of that, and tempo. It kind of reminds me of the Mad Magicians. Personnel is almost beside the point, and we know very little about it anyway since we've got one game against Bryant to go on.

Michigan did not eat any garbage in that game because UNLV, like most of Michigan's nonconference opponents, just wanted to get out of there with a check and their playbook unrevealed. UNLV turned it on afterwards, spurring a remarkable turnaround. UNLV finished the 2022 season 96th in offensive SP+. Last year they were 32nd. Caveat: a large chunk of this is getting great play from freshman QB Jayden Maiava, who immediately decamped for Georgia.

Anyway: I do not think Michigan is going to import Marion and put two guys in the backfield on every play. I do think that the personnel on this offense lends itself to something like it. Default 21 personnel with Edwards and Mullings on the field together. Loveland alternates between inline and flanker. Morris is the only WR to see 80%+ of the snaps. Semaj Morgan runs so many jet and orbit motions that he wears ruts in the turf. Orji is a constant threat to keep it, there are perimeter run threats on every play, etc. I

If Orji doesn't work out Michigan is going to be operating with a pocket passer, a pretty good ground game, and what looks like very little vertical game-breaking ability, with apology to Tyler Morris's touchdown against Alabama. That feels like it has a hard ceiling, and rolling with What If Orji may not. I can't construct a mental model of a Denegal/Warren/Davis offense throwing to Tyler Morris and Question Mark that feels like hell on defenses. Orji running bash counter with Edwards the back does sound like hell.