Help Me Understand Mo Hurst's Draft Ranking

He is undersized, with a potential medical issue, and his pro day results were just fine.  I think the NFL is wrong but its not that surprising.

Tom Brady has a thing or two to say about draft ranking

The nfl suffers from a lot of confirmation bias. Very few GM’s and coaches are willing to go against orthodoxy because it puts them in a greater chance of losing their spot. As spots are few and ambition to reach the perceived pinnacle is high you get an echo chamber. Look at some of the stupid shit that comes out of combine interviews. Questions that don’t reveal demeanor or intent but make “good football guys” get asked.

The nfl is a play-doh extruder of conventional wisdom. The bills moved up to take josh allen when everyone with a pulse and a working pair of eyes knows Rosen is the better QB. Why? Because Rosen is outspoken politically and socially and doesn’t fall in line with what ownership considers to be important. Granted this is buffalo and their owners are morons so winning has never been a priority. But that the bills aren’t being completely pilloried for taking the less good option and over paying for it because they didn’t like that Rosen is an atheist, tells you everything you need to know about nfl thought culture. Don’t try to innovate, don’t be different. It’s a league with tall poppy syndrome.

 

The heart issue + undersized DT + can only play in a 4-3 Defense = 2nd/3rd round

I would have liked the Patriots to take him at 31. How many teams run more than pass in the league? 5? Mo is a guy who fits as a DT in this NFL. Now if he really falls I understand the Pats waiting for value.

He always has the Uber thing just in case the NFL doesn't work out.

Mo will get his chance. I know its a blow to the ego for some of us to have no Michigan guys go in the first (especially when there were two buckeyes who are generally horrible people) but don't let it get you down. The 8-5 record from last year was a way bigger detriment to recruiting. Let's get it in 2019.

Sometimes the simplest answer is the correct one. 

 

One additional thing to point out is that we really don't have a lot of information on what the "heart issue" is. All that we actually know is that he was held out of the NFL combine for an irregular EKG and that this was similar to testing done before he ever played at Michigan. This could have affected his draft status, but without knowing the details for sure it is hard to say for certain that it did.  

It’s also a lot about how the draft falls. I live in Atlanta and the talk has been about how the Falcons would take a DT in the first round, either Taven Bryan or Hurst. Then, the best WR in the draft, who wasn’t expected to be there, fell to them. Sometimes it just happens because teams get lucky and other teams reach.

The heart condition is part of it. But what you have to realize is that NFL teams do not draft based on production. They look at measurables like height, weight, arm length, hand size, 40 times, bench press, broad jump. Fact is, Mo Hurst is undersized to be a 4-3 DT. He lacks the speed to be a DE. His power and his motor got him a lot of production at the college level, but it won’t work nearly as well in the NFL. He has the potential to be a pretty good DT in the NFL, but let’s drop the bias here. He’s not going to come in and be Ndamukong Suh or anything.

I would love it if we picked Landry at 33 then Hurst at 64.

First of all, Pro Football Focus is not even a point of reference for NFL teams, no NFL GM takes it seriously.

Mo is an undersized DT and a lot of teams are going to 3-4 where there is simply no role for a 280 lb DT who doesn't have the length to play DE.  His heart questions didn't help.  He was likely a late 1st round pick before his heart issues came up, but even then could have slid into the 2nd.  I think he'll go in the 1st half of the 2nd, but it would not surprise me if he drops further.  NFL GMs are followers and if other teams have questions about Hurst, they don't want to be the ones to take the chance.

I listened to a Ringer podcast this week with Mike Lombardi where he said that despite the medical "clearance" that Mo recieved, he heard a number of teams still had concerns and had taken him off their boards completely. Doesn't mean they're right, but in the risk averse world of NFL front offices this stuff happens. It was for different reasons, but remember when La'el Collins fell out of the draft completely despite being a 1st round talent because his ex-girlfriend had been murdered? You would have thought that in the 6th or 7th round someone would have said, "screw it, I'm taking him, if turns out to be a murderer we'll just cut him"....and of course he ended up being completely cleared a few days after the draft. 

I hope he goes to my favorite nfl team, which hasn't drafted yet.

His draft stock dropped after the heart condition stuff came out.  Plus he's a bit undersized for DT.

It could also be that NFL GMs aren't always the best at drafting guys, as evidenced by the fact that Cleveland took Mayfield and the Giants took Barkley, two players they absolutely didn't need at those spots.  Oh, and the less said about ESPN's truly atrocious draft coverage, the better.

Hurst is a very good DT; I can see an argument that he isn't a first-rounder because of his relatively smaller size.  But my guess is a smart GM picks him up in the second round and he tears guys apart.

He has too much potential as a game changing pass rusher to not be taken in the 2nd round, even with legitimate concerns about his size and health. I guess we'll see if NFL GMs agree with that assessment today.

You need to lower your expectations by a lot. 

These dolts are ignorant of demonstrated talent and motor like Michigan's Maurice Hurst.

Understand that NFL scouts and staff are all desperately seeking another Johnny Manziel or Jamarcus Russell.

 

The same process happens in both recruiting HS kids and drafting college guys.  They chose players based on potential rather than productivity.  This leads them to value physical attributes over mental ones.  They tend to rank/draft higher guys that have the desired height, weight, speed, athleticism, etc.  They tend to undervalue their actual production playing games.  This is why guys like Kyle Kalis, Shane Morris, Brian Cole, RJS, etc. get ranked high but don't produce very much.  They have the height, weight, speed, strength, and athleticism and coaches assume they can teach them how to play.  On the other end you have guys like JMFR, Hurst, Brady, Gallon, etc. who clearly out perform their ranking or what you might expect them to be able to do based on their lack of height, weight, speed, and athleticism. 

 

One thing many evaluaters IMO undervalue is motor control.  A smaller, slower, weaker player who understands how to read and react to plays quickly will more times than not outperform their larger, faster, stronger counterpart that is slower to read and react.  This is kind of a combination of physical/mental abilities, but is one of the more underrated skills in these sorts of evaluations.  At the highest level you want both, but many times it's easy to fall in love with the physical tools and assume the player has more potential.

So Michigan doctors cleared him to play all season and he reportedly has known about it since his freshman year. After it was brought up at the combine he was once again cleared by doctors from Michigan and Harvard... and yet this seems to be the reason he fell out of the first (and possibly more). Gotta be frustrating for Mo.

Something you've known about for years, the experts say it's not an issue, but it's still enough to scare some GMs. Oh well, some team is gonna get a steal. 

NFL values measurables above all else and Hurst isn’t the ideal size for an NFL DT. That makes him limited (at least in the eyes of GMs) to playing in certain defensive schemes, which pretty much automatically takes him off many teams’ boards entirely. I think people on this blog (a college sports site) fail to appreciate this year in and year out. And with respect to the heart condition...Star Lotulelei had a similar situation before the draft and still went in the first round after being cleared. If Mo had first round grades in the eyes of GMs, he would have been picked already.

I'm not an NFL GM - obviously - but I wouldn't spend a 1st round pick on a guy with heart issues. It's not just about Hurst - it's about the guy you could have instead of Hurst. If you whiff on a draft, that can be the difference between keeping/losing your job, and it can be the difference between continuity and a rebuild.

Teams are better off waiting until later rounds for a guy like Hurst, because the fan base/ownership won't crucify the GM for getting a 3rd round pick who ends up quitting football due to health issues.

It’s bullshit

It’s bullshit

It’s bullshit

It’s bullshit

It’s bullshit

LB in the NFL like Woodley did.  Not sure of Hurst's 40 time or his comparison size-wise to Woodley.  Woodley played at 6-2 and 260+. Hurst is 6-1 and 290