UMBig11 Week 1 Practice Notes
UMBig11 posted some notes from fall camp going into week 2. I won't post them and take away hits from TTB but here's the link.
http://touch-the-banner.com/forum/topic/some-football-notes-heading-in-to-week-2/
Being near the top of a generally "meh" group of Big 10 QBs last year isn't really pre-Heisman talk.
We can beat Air Force with Speight and scrape by Indiana with O'Korn. But with the ongoing recruiting gap, QB play like that doesn't, i don't think, consistently get us wins over OSU, Alabama, Clemson, etc. Beating those teams once every ten years...that's not satisfying, so yes, consternation.
but OSU also scraped by MSU last year and Clemson scraped by NC State.
the reality is that the formula for Michigan pulling even with OSU beating OSU 50%+ actually does require superb QB play. 'Pretty good' QB play won't get it done.
One of the main reasons M dominated the series from from the mid-80s until the early 2000s was that Michigan almost always had much better QB play. Every starting Michigan QB from that era played in the NFL.
Speight (or Peters) is going to have to be one of the best 10 or dozen QBs in the nation to really get Michigan the the level JH has set as the goal.
But he has to improve to the level of top 10 in the nation for the whole thing to work. With a gery young team, and given what JH is trying to do on offense, elite QB play is a necessary ingredient. This is not an offensive scheme that requires a 'pretty good' QB play.
The question is not whether Speight will improve. The question is whether he can improve to the elite level.
His point is that the scheme requires more than just a pretty good quarterback. It is redicated on punishing teams when they load the box (bring down a safety) by hitting long passes, and punishing them for not bringing dwn the safety by power running. If the QB can't hit the long passes when the opponent is cheating down, the whole scheme breaks down.
The QB doesn't have to be super in every phase of the game, but has to be credible with the long ball so that the opponent cannot impose his will on the Michigan defense.
Speight could certainly get there, and no choach has a better chance of getting him there, but it is an unknown right now.
Of course, if they really are going with a lot of 4-wideout sets, then the power game isn't a factor some of the time, and neither is the constraint play. But you'd like the team to be able to play the base game against anybody.
Well said.
He played well against a lot of very average teams. He still has a long way to go, hopefully this offseason really helped.
By the way, that is very athletic avatar.
Becasue with such a young roster it will take top 10 in the nation level QB play to be a serious playoff contender.
My guess is that Speight will be better than last year. But he has to a LOT better for Michigan to be a real playoff contender. Could happen. Or not.
Uh, we were a real playoff contender last year. Why does he have to be a lot better? I expect him to improve after his gaining experience in his first year starting.
M missed the playoff. Finished 3rd in the division. A few plays (and calls) from much bigger things. A pretty good year. But not really the best in the nation. Still a gap to the level of Alabama and Clemson.
Why? Lots of reasons. But one of the biggest reasons was the Speight was pretty good but not great.
Put it this way. If Speight had been as good as Sam Danold was for USC, M would likely have played in the NCG. Would not have lost at Iowa. OSU game would have been a comfortable win, etc.
I am not a Speight hater. He was pretty good for a first year starter, all things considerd.
But to beat OSU 50%+ and be a serious playoff conderder, the formula really does require QB play well above the level Speight showed last year. Maybe he gets to that level this year. Maybe not.
But until M has one of the top 10 or so QBs in the nation, it is going to be hard to close the gap with OSU. Michigan is not running a one read simple offense. It will take some really high level QB play to make Michigan's offense potent against good defenses. Not there yet.
August 6th, 2017 at 11:07 PM ^
to beat OSU and be a serious playoff contender, UM is going to need much better oline play. UM's inability to run the ball against Iowa, OSU and FSU played a big role in all of those losses. Yes, they will need better QB play too but running the ball 30-40 times/game and barely being able to cobble out 100 yds isn't going to lead them to the promised land either.
August 6th, 2017 at 11:15 PM ^
If Sam Darnold had been M's QB in 2016, the all three losses would have been comfortable wins.
Elite QB play can make up for a lot. Because it forces the opposing DC to adjust the defensive calls, it also can compensate for a non-elite o-line and open up the running game.
Seriously? "Why does he have to be a lot better?"
Because to get in the playoff, you have to beat the good teams too, and QB play is pretty important.
Let's look at the 3 losses (Iowa, OSU, FSU) and the best 3 wins (Colorado, Penn State, Wisconsin)
In those 6 games, only twice did he average more than 10 yards per completion (speaks to his downfield struggles and the effects on the running game)
Only once did he throw for multiple touchdowns, and that was at Ohio State, when he also threw a pick 6, another pick deep in his own territory, and he fumbled a snap.
He threw 18 TD passes last year. 7 of them were in the first two games. After that, 11 TD passes in 10 games, and a 3 game losing streak to end the season.
I know we have people on either extreme, those who think Peters should have already won the job, and those who I think let their HOPE that Speight does well get in the way of their critical evaluation of his play last season. I'm not sure who frustrates me more.
August 6th, 2017 at 11:24 PM ^
Speight will have to be A LOT better in 2017.
First, this is a very young team and there are real uncertainties in the defensive backfield. M will have a very good D, but it won't be as good as in 2016, at least not in the first half of the season. So the offense will have to be more consistent and better than in 2016. Speight and the offense will have to carry the team to wins on days when the youth is showing on defense.
Second, Speight was not great against good Ds. To convert the close losses into wins, Speight will have to be a lot better. He will have to be as good against Iowa, OSU, FSU as he was against Maryland. That is a big jump.
Not a whole not "new"
but I didn't know Kugler was still holding onto his spot, that Woods was the next man up for safety (I thought it was Kovacs, though I know he's the backup Viper, too), Bunting was clear TE1, and I was surprised that after one week there wasn't even one ascending name for CB.
August 6th, 2017 at 11:10 PM ^
Speight is also almost 23. Let's not pretend he was a wide eyed 18 year old true freshman last year.
UMBig11. At SeaTac airport, back from Alaska and your write up and the Chris Hinton committment put me in the flow for summer camp and football season already. Just in the span of reading 3 threads. Thanks for making a very long layover most enjoyable !
http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/hello-karan-higdon#comment-3023273
Michigan just got one hell of a player and ambassador. We're extremely excited! My mission was to simply make him aware of what Michigan was and is about. We did that. Iowa did a phenomenal job with him and there was nothing negative about them. There was simply too much positive about Michigan. He cannot wait to bring some "Juice" to Ann Arbor!
Higdon has something in there that is on the cusp of breaking out. You can see it when he carries the ball. If and when he can put it together, I think he could be a good one.
and spreading the field out with 4 WR's ought to open up some seams for him.
What's holding Evans back? His pass protection and picking up blitzes? Gotta be something not run related.
If Speight doesn't enter the NFL Draft after this season next years QB battle will be even more debated, especially if Speight doesn't significantly improve.
a lot of 'ifs' in there.
August 6th, 2017 at 11:25 PM ^