OT: NFL or Return with Insurance: What would YOU do?
2 Questions:
1. I think there is a tiered insurance policy program for potential early NFL entries based on projection, but can anyone clarify the amount of insurance that someone like Jake Butt would have gotten OR the amount that Jabril might get if he comes back next year?
2. What would you do? I know when I was in undergrad at UM studying Mechanical Engineering, I had a job at Chrysler waiting for me, so I really wanted to stay for a 5th year instead of coming out in 4. I REALLY LOVED my UM/AA experience and wanted to enjoy it as much as possible. I saw a lot of my friends graduate in 4 and I felt it was too soon! I really do think that many times, when student athletes are faced with this decision, we underestimate how young they are and how much they really enjoy college...so I am sure this is a geniune decision for Jabril (who is my fraternity brother and he really loves our frat and loves college life!).
So, again, what would you personally do if YOU were in this situation with a potential early NFL career waiting...but also knowing how much you loved UM/college?
January 4th, 2017 at 6:51 PM ^
Maybe she's also reading Mgoblog and is typing the same thing about you in a different thread? Ask her if she thinks we land Najee.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:14 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 10:27 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 6:37 PM ^
I don't know if there are NFL-bound/elite football players that dislike the college experience and celebrity status on campus, but I imagine a few might and they would lean to the NFL more than your average football player.
I hated college and couldn't wait to leave and make money, personally. Hard to say how the college experience would have changed if I was a football player instead.
January 4th, 2017 at 6:41 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 10:27 PM ^
I disagree slightly.
1st round pick: go get paid, and get paid now. A bird in the hand is better than two in the bush, and all that.....My earlier post a bit lower operates on the assumption that he's projected to go in the 1st round.
Anything else: come back and raise your game.
January 4th, 2017 at 6:45 PM ^
NFL without a doubt. Have you done any research on insurance policies? Of all the college players that have taken them out, there has been one payout. Silas Redd last year.
It's way too subjective of a process. The insurance company will fight paying it out. They will point to game film, off the field stuff, family members, whatever it takes to insist that it wasn't the injury that caused their draft stock to plummet. Usually it's not worth it for the player to fight it in court.
January 4th, 2017 at 6:47 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 6:49 PM ^
Crazy I know!
I was actually going to edit my post before it got locked in, but I forgot Jaylon Smith also just got a payout making him the second. They settled for $900,000 instead of the $5 million the policy was for.
January 4th, 2017 at 8:00 PM ^
Per ESPN, "Former Notre Dame linebacker Jaylon Smith took out an insurance policy in the fall that would pay him $5 million if he got hurt and could never play again or up to $5 million if he got hurt and slipped in the 2016 NFL draft. A source with knowledge of the policy said Smith will receive $700,000 if he falls out of the first round and gets picked as the top pick in the second round. If he doesn't, he'll collect an additional $100,000 for each spot he falls."
He went 2nd in the 2nd round, so he got the $900,000 he was supposed to get. His contract was for $6.49M with a $2.9M signing bonus. The $5M figure was just the maximum possible payout based on the details of the contract. He was not gauranteed to collect that.
January 4th, 2017 at 6:47 PM ^
From the FAQ on Loss Of Value Coverage - LINK
"Insurance underwriters will first determine an athlete’s eligibility based on their draft position. If they are projected to be selected early in the draft, underwriters could offer coverage limit that typically falls between $1 million and $10 million, based on the projected draft position. The underwriters will then set a loss-of-value threshold that is typically 50 to 60 percent of the athlete’s projected rookie contract. If the contract an athlete signs falls below that threshold as a direct result of an injury or illness suffered during the coverage period, the insurance would pay them the difference between the actual contract’s value and the policy’s predetermined value."
I would imagine part of the decision is your draft projection versus how much you're potentially (key word) willing to lose, so I would think that if we're talking a high pick with a commensurate contract, then going pro is probably not even a question most of the time - not everyone does, of course. I could be wrong about this entirely, but I have to think there are considerations like this in the decision.
January 4th, 2017 at 6:47 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 6:48 PM ^
When I was a kid all I wanted to do was play for Michigan. I honestly don't know if I would leave.
That being said I think Peppers is gone.
January 4th, 2017 at 6:58 PM ^
Let me be clear that I understand and respect the choice of a given player going to the NFL. Many of these guys come to the team without having grown up as die-hard Michigan fans whether they are in-state or out-of-state. But if you're asking about ME?
Honestly, how can any of you claim to be die hard Michigan fans and simultaneously say you would bolt to the NFL and throw away a chance to enter the ultimate Michigan football pantheon? Peppers has a chance to do that. If he goes pro, that's fine. His life, his choices. Without seeming like I'm ragging on the guy (which I adamantly am NOT)--he has not beaten OSU and he has not won a Big Ten Championship. Heck, he has not even played in a bowl game, much less the Rose Bowl or the CFP. If he wants to leave he will be remembered fondly, but he will not be anywhere near what Desmond Howard and Charles Woodson were to this program. If I, personally, were in Peppers shoes, there would be no question I would stay. But I have grown up in a family of diehard Michigan fans, so I am brainwashed. I am also well-versed in the scientific literature which suggests that excess money does not lead to excess happiness (and that if you can achieve a certain moderate level of finanical stability/literacy you will not make yourself significantly happier no matter how much more money you make).
Do the words "Those who stay will be champions" mean anything to you people anymore? "You can go into professional football, you can go anywhere you want to play after you leave here. YOU WILL NEVER PLAY FOR A TEAM AGAIN. You'll play for a contract. You'll play for this. You'll play for that. You'll play for everything except the team, and think what a great thing it is to be a part of something that is, The Team."
January 4th, 2017 at 6:59 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:00 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:03 PM ^
That's great, but it's easy to say that when you're not the one in the situation.
My guess is that if it was just about Peppers alone, he would come back.
Given his background and things he has said in interviews, going pro is more about giving back to his mom. Getting her a house, car, and whatnot. Can't risk not getting the payout. However, I think he also promised her a degree so who knows.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:06 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^
Yes I know how to read.
I was responding to the part of the post that said Jabrill needs to return if he wants to be remembered like Woodson and beat OSU etc. I respect his point, and was offering a counterargument. Isn't that the point of a discussion board?
January 4th, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^
I don't know everything about Pepper's situation so I'm just talking about hypotheticals here. OP asked what I, personally, would do.
But at the same time, I am always concerned when players want to immediately buy a bunch of things for friends/family when they got their paycheck. I don't mean to preach, but cars are a horrible investment, mortgage rates are going up this year, and a small amount invested wisely can go a lot further than a large amount invested poorly. And no matter what happens, Peppers is not going to get any less than $2.5M out of this after taxes. He was a Heisman finalist and one of the biggest names in the country this year. U-M can surely help him find a good insurance plan.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:27 PM ^
i have a house ,car and whatnot... never went to college or played pro football. i would give that all up to have a chance at what peppers has already done, or could do.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:44 PM ^
Yeah, but did you grow up in poverty? Have your brother shot down by a rival gang when you were 14? Your dad sent off to prison for selling drugs when you were 7?
That's the only reason I say if he goes pro it is more about taking care of mom, instead of risking it on a non-guaranteed insurance policy. He knows he has been great/ has a chance for Michigan immoratlity. That's why the decision is taking so long.
January 4th, 2017 at 8:11 PM ^
im sure the decision is very difficult because he is not just looking at a possible big contract. money, alot of it ,can be made without ever playing football.
January 4th, 2017 at 11:55 PM ^
In theory, but 99.99% of people are not making anywhere near NFL money in other pursuits even though it is possible. The cheapest NFL contract for a low first round pick last year was $8.1 million for 4 years. The average starting salary for a college graduate is $50 thousand so maybe $240 thousand for 4 years with raises. An $7.8 million shortfall is enough to retire on at 22. Obviously it's a bit more complicated with NFL guaranteed $, NPV, investments returns, tax effects blah blah blah. But of the possible reasons to say, a tiny chance at getting rich by some other career path w/o playing football isn't a good reason.
January 4th, 2017 at 11:13 PM ^
Correct. There are some things that are bigger than football, like mom in his case. And he might want to take care of her since she took care of him all of those years. Hell, it might even make him more happy to provide his mom with financial security a year sooner than he is to make himself a legend at Michigan. Who knows what he thinks but I think we can all agree that people have varied priorities.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:09 PM ^
But, Jabrill was a lifetime Michigan fan growing up, in a sense. His favorite football player growing up was Woodson, whom was the guy that Jabrill modeled his game off of. That was one of the reasons he ever came to AA even during the worst times of the program as the #3 recruit in the country. If anything, it just proves Jabrill's 'trusting his heart before his brain'.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:33 PM ^
were going to threaten for a B1G championship or an NC next year, then yes. But although they could surprise, the odds are not high. He can come back and finish school when he's through with football, if he cares to.
January 5th, 2017 at 12:00 AM ^
This. If he were coming back to the 2018 team with minimal attrition and a lot of talent then it is a much tougher decision. He's coming back to a team that is about to lose ~16 to 18 of 22 starters and go through a rebuilding year. Maybe it'll go well and we'll wind up at 10-3 or 11-2 even. But we are not going to win a national championship in 2017 with 60 to 65 of our 85 guys being freshmen//sophomores.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:46 PM ^
That was BEAUTIFUL and ON POINT! How can die hard Michigan fans say they would leave so easily. My dream was to be Anthony Carter, not Jerry Rice.
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January 4th, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^
Jabril's dream may be for his mom to never have to worry about work or money ever again. Or maybe he dreams like you do. We don't know but either is okay and just a personal decision.
January 4th, 2017 at 9:06 PM ^
"If he wants to leave he will be remembered fondly, but he will not be anywhere near what Desmond Howard and Charles Woodson were to this program."
This is some first class sarcasm. Both of these guys left with a year of eligibility left. So are they in the pantheon or are they just fine?
January 4th, 2017 at 6:54 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 6:55 PM ^
College is/was better than any part of real life, and looking back I wish I'd stayed in AA longer somehow. If the money is there regardless, there isn't a compelling reason to leave early imo
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:01 PM ^
Just seen one mock draft on MSN showing Jabrill going #4 to Jacksonville. Seen another with him going #7 to the Chargers. That's too good to pass up honestly
IMO I think he could easily benefit from another year at Michigan though. Hone the specific position he'll be playing in the NFL would help because he surely wont be a LB in the NFL. Dont worry about offense just focus on Special teams and defense. Not like the Wildcat with jabrill was super effective so it wouldnt hurt us to remove that and keep him on D
January 4th, 2017 at 9:05 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:01 PM ^
If you don't stick in the NFL at least you've got that first round contract.
if you do stick in the NFL you hit Free Agency a year earlier. Depending on how contracts end up stacking up that could be worth tens of millions.
The only financial reason to stay would be that if your class was especially loaded and the next draft class was projected to be exceptionally weak (basically be Trey Burke) thereby moving you up from something like a 3rd rounder into the 1st.
If you really want to enjoy campus life (and assuming you aren't a 20 year vet like Woodson), you could always go back and get an MBA when you're retired from the NFL. You'd probably have a lot more fun when you have millions of dollars and a huge amount of free time now that you don't have football to worry about.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:03 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:08 PM ^
And I feel like I would stay if I really loved my university and the situation I was in. But that's easy for me to say having never been in such a situation
One thing I will say is that if the kid, whoever he is, no matter how high his draft stock is, makes a decision based on what he, and solely he, wants to do then it is never a bad decision. Maybe it is a bad "business" decision but the older I get the more I realize that using money to dictate my choices is not always best for my quality of life.
So as it relates to Peppers, I hope he does what HE wants, whatever that is.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:14 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 7:16 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 7:19 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 7:41 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 10:39 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 8:02 PM ^
would those even BE Michigan household names had they left even earlier than they did?
January 4th, 2017 at 8:54 PM ^
You do realize that two of those players left with a year of eligibility remaining?
January 4th, 2017 at 10:58 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:20 PM ^
He's holding a winning lottery ticket. Go cash it and go get paid. You can come back later for the degree and the end of the college experience.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:21 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:25 PM ^
The typical fan is reacting at a life-stage that's completely different from the average college student - let alone an elite football player who's destined for the NFL draft.
It's easy for a middle-aged guy like me to say "STAY IN SCHOOL. LIVE IT UP AND ENJOY COLLEGE" without remembering how sick I was with living like a pauper (selling plasma in Ypsi, eating ramen and macaroni every night, getting kicked out of Ponderosa on Washtenaw for sharing a salad bar plate, freezing to death because I didn't want to turn up my electric baseboard heater, etc). I had fun for the most part, but life in AA really sucked sometimes.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:28 PM ^
I think I can relate to Peppers/ Butt more than most because I too faced a decision on whether to leave Michigan early in order to turn pro.
I had the ability to graduate in three years due to extensive AP credits from high school. I was weighing staying a 4th year to double-major and enjoy the peak of my drinking prowess. However, ultimately it was a pretty easy decision for me. My options were to pay $70k for another year of classes, or go get paid. One would increase the burden on my family and myself, and the other would make me a tax-paying contributor to society. While school was a blast, from a productivity perspective it just does not make sense to take longer to get to the same place.
The stakes are even higher with those two as there is a chance for injury for which insurance would likely only cover a fraction of the true loss. I would take the money and run. If they really value the degree they can finish it after finishing in the NFL or during the summers. Good luck in the NFL to both!