OT: NFL or Return with Insurance: What would YOU do?

As much as I (selfishly) would love to see him return, as others have said he's holding a winning lottery ticket. You cash it in. You secure your mother's, your family's future. 

Seeing Peppers in the Big House next season would be amazing. But the kid has a chance to, through his hard work, secure the future of his family. I couldn't see turning down that opportunity. 

I've always abhorbed how these discussions get couched as tests of love of school in an effort to justify asking 20-year-olds, many of whom come from impoverished backgrounds, to make financial decisions we ourselves are unlikely to make. A player who leaves for an opportunity to improve his financial situation does not love the school less than one who stays. It's extra silly given Peppers in particular, who's done not to justify speculation about his love of Michigan.

Bigger picture, I know players leaving early for the league hasn't historically happened here, but if we're going to be recruiting at the level Harbaugh appears to be reaching, it's going to become a more common occurrence. Players who come in with the accolades and abilities of Peppers, Gary, and Harris if we get him aren't typically going to be playing in college for four years. That's just the way it goes. The fanbase is going to have to come to grips with this.

Re: Insurance, I believe I heard Butt has a $2 million policy if he falls out of the third round, $4 million if undrafted entirely.

Re: what I would do, would depend primarily on where I was projected to go.  If I'm a consensus first rounder, I go pro.  Anything less, I stay and try to improve.  The only exception to this is if the year I would be going there's either (a) a glut of good players at my position or (b) I have one specific flaw that I think I can improve with another year and go from say, a high 20s pick to a top 10 pick (and even then, I probably still go, since training is by and large better in NFL).   Conversely, if my junior year is barren at my position and I'm one of the best players there (but would be a lower pick my senior year due to there being more elite players set for the draft the following year), I may think about going.  Basically, I do what will maximize my draft position.  If I'm Peppers, I go pro.  There's no (reasonably affordable) amount of insurance that can adequately cover me in case of catastrophic injury, and it does not seem likely he can improve the only consistently mentioned flaw in his game (coverage), or honestly improve his draft stock much seeing as I have seen him projected as high as top 5.   The only reason to not go would be feelingsballs ones - desire to play in a bowl game, more years having fun at college, etc.  There's no real compelling football reason for him to come back, although obviously "more years of college" is always something appealing.  Still, if I was a parent, coach, or advisor, I would tell him to go make his money now.  

QB's don't have as much wear and tear on their body like the other positions, so it's more likely that they will get through their last season healthy.  But the clock is ticking on the other positions that face a violent collision every play.

Unless I really want that ring, I would leave

The following is a list of the NFL 2016 first round salary slots (4 year contract):

#1. $28 million (Goff)

#5. $23 million (Ramsey)

#10. $15 million (Apple)

#15. $12 million (Coleman)

#20. $10 milion (Lee)

#25. $9.6 million (Burns)

Avg 2nd round is $ 4million.  Avg 3rd round is $3 million.

So it's a tough call based purely on $.  Say he is projected at 15 this year.  He gets his guaranteed $12 million.

Now, say he stays.  If he doesn't get injured, his draft status shouldn't get worse.  But it could get better.  If he moves up 5 spots, that's another $3 million.  If me moves up to the 5-7 range, it could mean another $6-11 million.  If he gets injured, he likely wouldn't drop pass round 3, so he would be looking at worst $3 million or a $8 million drop.  That's where the insurance comes in.  He could get a policy to cover that drop.  

So, if he stays and is healthy he is likely to earn $3-10 million more.  But loses a year of earnings on the front end and delays free agency.  If he gets hurt and is covered by insurance, he basically just loses the one year of earnings on the front end and potential earnings after year 5 if the injury is castastrophic.  But he could still get his $10-12 million.

So, the money is there either way.  But if he's a gambler, he could win financially by staying another year, and get the extra year of college to do great things and get a degree.  Personally, I would take the risk and stay, since he would have plenty of loot either way.

This is so much easier to answer as a 42 year old man than it would be for a 20 year old kid.The answer with a lifetime of experience is get the insurance, stay the extra year and get your degree then move on to the NFL. 

People only realize much later in life that their university years are about as good as it gets in life. Before the bills start adding up and responsibilities pile on. It's a time when you get to have fun and be with friends and most importantly for him, one more year to acclimate himself to the position he'd play in the NFL. The insurance will cover the risk of injury so stop crying about the money, it's about so much more than money.

He has a chance to fulfill some goals he set for himself prior to entering college and if he leaves a year on the table I can say with 100% certainty it is a decision he will always question his entire life. Stay one more year is the answer.