OT: NFL or Return with Insurance: What would YOU do?
2 Questions:
1. I think there is a tiered insurance policy program for potential early NFL entries based on projection, but can anyone clarify the amount of insurance that someone like Jake Butt would have gotten OR the amount that Jabril might get if he comes back next year?
2. What would you do? I know when I was in undergrad at UM studying Mechanical Engineering, I had a job at Chrysler waiting for me, so I really wanted to stay for a 5th year instead of coming out in 4. I REALLY LOVED my UM/AA experience and wanted to enjoy it as much as possible. I saw a lot of my friends graduate in 4 and I felt it was too soon! I really do think that many times, when student athletes are faced with this decision, we underestimate how young they are and how much they really enjoy college...so I am sure this is a geniune decision for Jabril (who is my fraternity brother and he really loves our frat and loves college life!).
So, again, what would you personally do if YOU were in this situation with a potential early NFL career waiting...but also knowing how much you loved UM/college?
January 4th, 2017 at 7:37 PM ^
If you had stayed, no one was going to be hanging up your lucky exam hoodie in the Chem Building or the MLB. And I doubt your blue book or A+ econ final would be held in the Bentley.
January 4th, 2017 at 11:25 PM ^
Winners focus on winning. Losers focus on winners.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:28 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:33 PM ^
As much as I (selfishly) would love to see him return, as others have said he's holding a winning lottery ticket. You cash it in. You secure your mother's, your family's future.
Seeing Peppers in the Big House next season would be amazing. But the kid has a chance to, through his hard work, secure the future of his family. I couldn't see turning down that opportunity.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:34 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:36 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 8:25 PM ^
How many instances can you name of a top 15 draft pick who returned, had a career ending injury, and then ended up despondent and in financial ruin? Is it insane to believe that the worst might not happen?
I suppose Deshawn Watson could still snap his femur in the NCG, but he had a chance to go in the 1st round last year and yet he came back. Now Clemson is playing for redemption and their first national championship in decades. And I really, really doubt he'll regret staying if they win. Even if they lose, I doubt he'll regret staying.
January 4th, 2017 at 8:59 PM ^
Two guys that didn't get hurt but came back for senior years were Leinert and Matt Barkley. Both would have been top five-ish draft picks after their junior years. They came back for their senior year and saw their draft stock plummet. Barkley was the subject of #1 overall pick. He fell like a rock in a program that was going through turmoil and lost the security of being an extremely high draft pick.
January 4th, 2017 at 9:33 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 11:49 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:40 PM ^
I've always abhorbed how these discussions get couched as tests of love of school in an effort to justify asking 20-year-olds, many of whom come from impoverished backgrounds, to make financial decisions we ourselves are unlikely to make. A player who leaves for an opportunity to improve his financial situation does not love the school less than one who stays. It's extra silly given Peppers in particular, who's done not to justify speculation about his love of Michigan.
Bigger picture, I know players leaving early for the league hasn't historically happened here, but if we're going to be recruiting at the level Harbaugh appears to be reaching, it's going to become a more common occurrence. Players who come in with the accolades and abilities of Peppers, Gary, and Harris if we get him aren't typically going to be playing in college for four years. That's just the way it goes. The fanbase is going to have to come to grips with this.
January 4th, 2017 at 8:14 PM ^
and somehow the discussion has turned into a bunch of ranting about how anyone who would stay is a complete moron, and that in any and and all cases where you have to choose between a large sum of money vs. a situation of indefinable value, you should pick the money.
No one here is trashing Peppers for potentially leaving. If he does, I won't question his love for Michigan. All I am saying is this: without getting into a philosophical discussion about whether it is possible to wholly understand how others experience reality, if I were in a similar situation, I would choose to stay and try to win The Game, the BTCG, the Heisman, the CFP, and become a Michigan legend--even if I were a projected top 10 pick in the NFL draft.
January 4th, 2017 at 11:31 PM ^
That's great. And others are saying they wouldn't do what you would do. Nothing wrong with that. It hasn't turned into a bunch of ranting as you say. That's a little thing called projection.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:43 PM ^
In the pros you're playing for a contract. College you're playing for a team. And he obviously is very fond of his fraternity. You lose that forever when you leave.
If you stay, you get your degree and you could really set your legacy at your school. Some of these things are worth more than money.
Tough decision. Heart says stay, brain is undecided but leaning towards the leaving for the money.
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January 5th, 2017 at 8:50 AM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 7:44 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 7:56 PM ^
Re: Insurance, I believe I heard Butt has a $2 million policy if he falls out of the third round, $4 million if undrafted entirely.
Re: what I would do, would depend primarily on where I was projected to go. If I'm a consensus first rounder, I go pro. Anything less, I stay and try to improve. The only exception to this is if the year I would be going there's either (a) a glut of good players at my position or (b) I have one specific flaw that I think I can improve with another year and go from say, a high 20s pick to a top 10 pick (and even then, I probably still go, since training is by and large better in NFL). Conversely, if my junior year is barren at my position and I'm one of the best players there (but would be a lower pick my senior year due to there being more elite players set for the draft the following year), I may think about going. Basically, I do what will maximize my draft position. If I'm Peppers, I go pro. There's no (reasonably affordable) amount of insurance that can adequately cover me in case of catastrophic injury, and it does not seem likely he can improve the only consistently mentioned flaw in his game (coverage), or honestly improve his draft stock much seeing as I have seen him projected as high as top 5. The only reason to not go would be feelingsballs ones - desire to play in a bowl game, more years having fun at college, etc. There's no real compelling football reason for him to come back, although obviously "more years of college" is always something appealing. Still, if I was a parent, coach, or advisor, I would tell him to go make his money now.
January 4th, 2017 at 7:59 PM ^
QB's don't have as much wear and tear on their body like the other positions, so it's more likely that they will get through their last season healthy. But the clock is ticking on the other positions that face a violent collision every play.
Unless I really want that ring, I would leave
January 4th, 2017 at 8:03 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 8:06 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 8:21 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 11:34 PM ^
Plenty of NFL guys are part of a team again and take pride in their team. Ridiculous statement.
January 4th, 2017 at 8:22 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 8:26 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 8:27 PM ^
If a junior in Computer Science was offered a 4 year deal worth $2,500,000. to work for some company that purchased the app he created, everyone would be thrilled. Who knows if this tech company would be around 4 years from now or if the app was even viable in the future. There is risk to both.
Bank the flow. Go to school at night. Graduate either way.
January 4th, 2017 at 8:41 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 8:56 PM ^
The following is a list of the NFL 2016 first round salary slots (4 year contract):
#1. $28 million (Goff)
#5. $23 million (Ramsey)
#10. $15 million (Apple)
#15. $12 million (Coleman)
#20. $10 milion (Lee)
#25. $9.6 million (Burns)
Avg 2nd round is $ 4million. Avg 3rd round is $3 million.
So it's a tough call based purely on $. Say he is projected at 15 this year. He gets his guaranteed $12 million.
Now, say he stays. If he doesn't get injured, his draft status shouldn't get worse. But it could get better. If he moves up 5 spots, that's another $3 million. If me moves up to the 5-7 range, it could mean another $6-11 million. If he gets injured, he likely wouldn't drop pass round 3, so he would be looking at worst $3 million or a $8 million drop. That's where the insurance comes in. He could get a policy to cover that drop.
So, if he stays and is healthy he is likely to earn $3-10 million more. But loses a year of earnings on the front end and delays free agency. If he gets hurt and is covered by insurance, he basically just loses the one year of earnings on the front end and potential earnings after year 5 if the injury is castastrophic. But he could still get his $10-12 million.
So, the money is there either way. But if he's a gambler, he could win financially by staying another year, and get the extra year of college to do great things and get a degree. Personally, I would take the risk and stay, since he would have plenty of loot either way.
January 4th, 2017 at 9:07 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 9:16 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 9:14 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 9:33 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 11:41 PM ^
This is absolutely false. He will be a first rounder. Pick number 4 is the highest he would go but it is more likely to be slightly lower. I don't see him lasting past pick 14 to the Saints. But to say his stock is falling like a rock is only true in mock drafts. There are 6 teams who are known to have high interest in him. He may go to the Jags, Jets, Bills, Chargers, Cardinals, or Saints just in the top 14.
January 4th, 2017 at 9:56 PM ^
January 4th, 2017 at 10:46 PM ^
If it were me, if I were ever blessed with athletic ability, I would stay until I received my degree. Not everybody gets the opportunity to go to school for free. If it doesn't work out in the pros you always have something to fall back on. Alas, I am not Jabrill Peppers.
January 4th, 2017 at 10:52 PM ^
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January 4th, 2017 at 11:10 PM ^
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January 5th, 2017 at 12:12 AM ^
I can see why this is tough for Jabril. Playing for Michigan and Harbaugh is probably as close to football utopia as you can get. I get the sense that Jabril is a football junkie. He probably realizes that this is the best it gets when it comes to pure football. The flip side is that he does want to help his family out and he's a potential first rounder. And you add to that he can take out an insurance policy in case of disaster. Tough call. You are fighting your love for football vs your need to help out your family. If I were in his shoes, my decision would come down to my mom. If I thought she would be fine with me playing an extra year of college ball, I would stay and savor the moment. If I thought she needed help ASAP, then you go, no questions asked. Whatever he decides, you can bet that he thought this over quite a bit and ultimately chose unselfishly because I get the sense that if it was just him in this world, he would stay.
January 5th, 2017 at 6:08 AM ^
If i'm a prospect that is expected to be drafted in the top half of the first round, I would not stay another year if my dream is to go pro (which would be if I was a college football player). By staying another year and being a Top15 prospect, you can literally only lose value, i.e. get injured and stumble a couple of rounds to much lower guaranteed contract money, OR have a bad year performance-wise and lose out on being drafted at all (see Harry Giles from Duke Basketball)
January 5th, 2017 at 7:54 AM ^
This is so much easier to answer as a 42 year old man than it would be for a 20 year old kid.The answer with a lifetime of experience is get the insurance, stay the extra year and get your degree then move on to the NFL.
People only realize much later in life that their university years are about as good as it gets in life. Before the bills start adding up and responsibilities pile on. It's a time when you get to have fun and be with friends and most importantly for him, one more year to acclimate himself to the position he'd play in the NFL. The insurance will cover the risk of injury so stop crying about the money, it's about so much more than money.
He has a chance to fulfill some goals he set for himself prior to entering college and if he leaves a year on the table I can say with 100% certainty it is a decision he will always question his entire life. Stay one more year is the answer.
January 5th, 2017 at 8:41 AM ^
Your response is true for virtually every college student. However, it's completely flipped for football players with a NFL future.
Football players have a chance to make truly ludicrous money immediately out of college. Their career will last 10 years if they're lucky, and more realistically 3-5 years. Giving up even a year of earnings is a massive hit to career earning potential, particularly since second contracts (which are possible only after completing four years in the league) are worth far more than first contracts. And there's nothing to say that the extra year in college won't cost a player more than that - if he's currently projected in the first or second round, he might slip down the draft board as teams get more film on him.
I agree that college is great. It's the most fun and most rewarding years of your life. But would you pay half a million dollars (on the low end) to multiple millions of dollars (on the high end) to spend one more year in college?
January 5th, 2017 at 8:57 AM ^
January 5th, 2017 at 9:18 AM ^
College is the best time of your life. The NFL will never be able to offer you what playing college football can. Money is a poor substitute for the intangibles of brotherhood and community. Id be willing to bet a large percentage of those that leave college early regret it later in life. If you have your degree and a nice insurance policy you will still be wealthy even if you never play a down in the NFL. Id stay in college personally but that conclusion comes from a 54 year old who misses his college days.