Michigan's 2016 schedule projects to be 2nd easiest
Thought this was kind of interesting. ESPN released some early 2016 projections, and has Michigan with the second easiest schedule out of the power 5 teams. I knew they had an easy schedule, but didn't realize it was THAT easy. Only Minnesota has a bigger cakewalk.
1. Minnesota
2. Michigan
3. Purdue
4. Maryland
5. Nebraska
You can also poke around on their FPI page: espn.com/fpi to look at some of the projections. FWIW, they have Michigan with the best odds (29.3) to win the Big Ten, and have the projected W-L at 10.0-2.4 which seems about right. I'd imagine Vegas will have the over/under around 10.5 wins.
That 2008 game, though.
RichRod's finest moment as our coach. Heh.
I'll never forget that 58-yard run by Steven Threet.
I'll never forget Lou Holtz trying to choke Steven Threet's name out of his mouth
It's the easiest schedule, becuase they done have to play MIchigan!
Unless you count every day at practice.
This is an easy explaination. Those SOS are probably just being weighed down by Rutgers.
That seems odd. 3 Top 10 teams last year on the road, 10 P5 games, seems like it has to be harder than a fair amount of teams. It is probably SEC bias, I can't imagine with 8 conference games most $ec schools play 10 P5 teams.
Once you look at Michigan's schedule, it makes sense. They don't play on the road until week 6 and that's at Rutgers. The first meaningful game on the road is at MSU on Oct. 29th in week 9. And none of the home games are that difficult.
The only game they probably won't be favored in is at Ohio State. Sure they play MSU and Iowa on the road, but neither of those teams will be what they were last year. Barring catastrophe, they should be 10-1 at worse heading into The Game. Tough to find many schedules where you can pretty easily pencil someone in as 10-2 or 9-3 at worse.
But that is because we are good. If we were an average team it would look a lot harder with Wisconsin, & Penn St. Kentucky plays; Austin Peay, New Mexico St., Southern Miss, and the rest of the weaker SEC East, I can't believe that our schedule is easier than that.
Do not be deceived. You will reap what you sow.
I am just glad Michigan doesn't have a home game vs. Chattanooga in mid November like Alabama. That is brutally difficult.
Alabama opens against USC in Texas. We open against Hawaii at home. Your comment doesn't work as well as a lot of non-SEC people would like.
Maybe, but their schedule is not some gauntlet either. SEC teams benefit from the narrative that every team in the SEC is a world beater which we all know is untrue.
we're damn well sure Florida is a hell of a team. They have.... like...... 5 Jabrills!
It will hurt our chances all year, because ESPN will pimp it out, even though it is obviously stupid.
The list came from Chantel's tweet, so there is no full list. But if you go to espn.com/fpi you can see everyone. And it is for all Power 5 teams -- not just the Big Ten. The bottom of the Big Ten really is that bad that it drags everyone's SOS down.
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out of conference schedule. Or mostly at out of conference schedule.
Anyway you slice it, this "survey" is deeply flawed.
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When the easiest game is against our biggest rival, Illinois, that makes for a difficult second half. Hopefully Indiana and Iowa regress because Sparty and OSU will definitely be tough road games.
we go for the big one.
What astounding is that they have Michigan as 11th, OSU as 17th, MSU as 34th and Iowa as 38th. If they are right, and my cotton pickin' maize and blue heart hopes they are, then Michigan wins in a veritable cakewalk. I think the assumptions of this model are flawed, or this is the exact example of a way to early prediction.
On a scale of 1-10 for game difficulty, they have three 8 or 9 (@OSU, @MSU, @Iowa), two 5 or 6 (Wisconsin, PSU), and then everything else is basically a 2-4.
So yeah, it's basically 3 really tough games, 2 average games, and 7 below average games. So then what counts as schedule difficulty? Is it difficulty in being undefeated? In that sense, Michigan has a fairly tough schedule. Is it the difficulty week in and week out? In that case, Michigan has it fairly easy. I tend to look more at the latter, but there are certainly very difficult games on Michigan's schedule, even if they are the outlier.
It's also only 4 away games, one of which is Rutgers. It's very odd. Michigan's best opponents are all on the road. Their other road game is one of the easier games on the schedule. The rest are at home. It's the exact opposite set up from last year.
Last year was a high variance schedule with a bunch of games that had a decent likelihood for a loss. @Utah, BYU, @Maryland, MSU, @Minnisota, @Indiana, @PSU, OSU, all of those games in the preseason wouldn't have really shocked people if Michigan ended up with a loss. High variance. This year, outside of three games, it would be surprising for Michigan to lose. Very low variance. Just a very weird schedule overall.
If OSU on the road isn't a 10, what is?
If Hawaii at home (when Hawaii's game the previous week is against Cal IN AUSTRALIA) isn't a 1, what is?
also a 1.
Head-to-head I'd take Hawaii over Delaware St., but man, Sydney is 15,000 miles and 14 hours from Ann Arbor. That game is gonna be u-g-l-y.
Hawaii is pulling out all the stops to raise enough money to keep their program going. I feel sorry for them.
One benefit to UM fans of the CFP is that we really don't need to care about strength of schedule. If we go undefeated, we are in no matter what. If we have one loss yet win the B1G championship game, we are still very likely in, especially if that loss comes early in the season. Two losses, we are out.
I say maybe because there are 5 Power conferences plus ND, plus maybe a 1 loss SEC team that ESPN loves. You could make an argument that Michigan shouldn't be in the top 4 out of those 7 teams (P5, ND, 1 loss SEC) even undefeated if MSU and OSU don't win their big OOC games.
I don't think the B1G reputation took a hit at all. There isn't a person outside of East Lansing who felt MSU should've even been on the same field as Bama, and most are in agreement that OSU would've performed much better in such a matchup. And the B1G is definitely considered a stronger conference than the Big 12 at this point. Say what you will about the media swaying the teams chosen, but even if that is true, an undefeated, Jim Harbaugh-coached UM team is every bit as attractive as the top SEC teams.
Winning the BIG with a loss means they beat OSU and BIG west champ in successive weeks to finish the season.
If Michigan wins the BIG with one loss, they're in.
In the link the OP provided that led to FPI, there were categories for both conference winning percentage and REM SOS (remaining SOS). That reads to me as the SOS for only non-con games, which makes a lot more sense
if M wins the Big Ten, that means beating OSU, MSU and Iowa on the road (plus the Big Ten West Champ). This will be more than enough to put M in the playoff.
just means that Mich really really needs to beat osu. they likely won't have any B1G losses (or one at most), meaning which ever team wins is going to Indy - just like it should be.
I actually feel really good about The Game, even though its on the road.
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All fair points. We'll also have a top 5 defense (and this time with a dialed-in D-coord for the game), and a much better offense, being in Year 2. Given the points we put up against UF, we should have put up a lot more against OSU.
That being said, I have a better feeling than I've had in 10 years, outside of 2006.
We're in a position at this point where we go into Columbus and we're already down by seven before we even kick the damn ball off. OSU has had a physical edge for years, which Harbaugh is starting to close, but they've also had a huge psychological edge as well. OSU winning 13 of the last 15 has them believing they will win no matter what happens.
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So Florida plays:
UMass (pojected 3-9)
North Texas (projected 3-9)
Presbyterian College (not IA)
Yeah, WTF.
It's clearly a love fest for the SEC as they have a buch of teams rated in top 10, whereas in the Big Ten it's OSU at 17, a bunch in the 30's, and a bunch in the 70s.
This is the team that really stands out.
Also, Georgia plays UNC, Nicholls State, and UL Lafayette. UNC is usually good, but it doesn't jump out as difficult.
I don't care what the schedule is ranked. It still has OSU, MSU and Iowa on the road. Maybe the other nine games are cakewalks, but those are the three games that will make the season.
This makes no sense. We play Iowa, MSU, and OSU on the road in addition to Penn State as well as Wisconsin and they think we have the 2nd easiest schedule? That dog dont hunt, These guys are nuts. All of these are formidable teams that usually do well every year.
Sure some of them are expected to not be as good this year as last, but that remains to be seen. It depends on player development and coaching during the off season. I'm sure we all agree that three of the top seven coaches in the country are in the Big Ten. These coaches will simply reload, coach up talent, and stay competitive every year.
The Big Ten will be tough as it is every year and we are playing the best in all of Football in hostile territory. It's possible UCF has a breakout player or season and beats everybody except us. These things can only be setteled on the field, not by hacks with their little computers. Tell them GTFOH!!!!
went 0-12 last year...
This is ESPN FPI. They have the Big Ten so weak due to their recruiting rankings. Otherwise, road games against three of the top ten teams in America last year (OSU, MSU, and Iowa) would not be considered 2nd easiest in the country.
That is in addition to playing Wisconsin, Penn State, and Pac12 Colorado at home.
These rankings are downright silly. We play three top 10 teams from 2015 on the road. I am ignoring.
To be honest, I'm glad we have an easier out of conference lineup. Last year would have been a lot different if we had a cupcake at home instead of going to Utah to open the season. We would have been ranked higher throughout the season if we were 6-0, and eventually 10-2.