2019 - The final exam of the Harbaugh offense
Shea's back.
Harbaugh has a returning senior blue chip QB. He has boatloads of receiver talent. The offensive line, finally, appears poised to be good. He has experienced tight ends. The one starter leaving a hole, Karan Higdon, has capable backups and a top 50 prospect poised to take his place.
There's a lot of debate about what, exactly, caused the offense to play at a "B" level when it seemed to have "A" talent last season. Some people assert that Pep is the problem; others assert that the basic philosophy is wrong; perhaps it's an issue of player coaching. The theories are manifold; they are, finally, unnecessary.
We don't know what goes on in the room. But the results, ultimately, are what matter.
Next year, Harbaugh has everything he needs. Barring a series of catastrophic injuries, there is absolutely no reason that the offense shouldn't be excellent. Personally, I am optimistic that it will be. But the time is no longer "some day." The time is now.
2019 is a referendum on Harbaugh as an offensive coach.
December 22nd, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
That's what we were told about Barrett but we moved him to db where he wasn't needed and didn't play.
Evans was supposed to be that kind of slot guy but when he still had his quickness we almost never used him in the slot or on screens or slants, then we asked him to bulk up and he lost most of the spark he used to have.
We put Pep on offense but didn't have a clue how to utilize him and ran the same shit that wasn't working over and over.
We had Ambry's electric speed and quickness and barely tried him on O and utilized poorly when they did.
We limit many guys to one play type or package and give away the play just by who we bring in.
Turner is a lightning bug who sat the bench instead of being used out of the backfield or the slot.
I hope he'll decide to use those kind of athletes and figure out how to do it but there is little reason to actually be hopeful about it based on what we've seen. I'm just going to try to expect us to waste all of our existing and incoming potential game breaker types and be excited and ecstatic if we don't.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:27 PM ^
Thanks for posting the numbers. However, you have to account for the fact that Rudddddock didn't go through spring ball, so he was super raw at the start of the season. The latter half of that season seemed much more cohesive and in synch than anything we've seen since Pep came.
I wasn't sad to see Jed go (I remember that shitty Iowa game), but the offense has been discombobulated pretty frequently since Pep got here, and that wasn't the case nearly as often under Jed. Regardless of what the stats say, there's something missing with this offense and it's not talented players.
I hope they figure it out, because we have some great players and they deserve to shine.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:22 PM ^
We were 20th out of 130 teams in points per game and I guarantee we were better than that in pace adjusted ppg. We averaged 6.2 yards per play while playing “bleed the clock” style offense in most games because of double digit leads. That translated to 427 ypg. The team averaged 21.8 first downs per game and picked up 28 first downs in the ‘shoe.
Was the offense elite? No. Was it great? No. Was it very, very good? I would say yes. Next year, Michigan has the potential to surpass Harbaugh’s best Andrew Luck-led Stanford offense. If Don Brown continues to be a miracle worker a la last season with a bunch of new starters, a CFP appearance should be the expectation.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:24 PM ^
How was our red zone offense? Not “very, very good”, that’s for sure.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:14 PM ^
Yes but if you read this site you'll see there's no such thing as red zone offense per se. So I guess we should expect some reversion to the mean.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:30 PM ^
Form your own opinions. Just because Brian says so, that doesn't mean that there's no such thing as red zone offense. We've been waiting to "revert to the mean" since Pep got here.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:41 PM ^
This is a stupid comment. It's not Brian. It's been on any stat-driven site. Brian didn't just say he feels like there's nothing special about red zone offense. There's an argument that it doesn't exist. If you want to make a case against that go ahead, but your post is the pinnacle of dumbass "dear leader" criticism. And once again the obsession with Pep (though I'm not a fan of his salary), as if we get in the red zone and Harbaugh and Warriner go for a coffee break. If anything, red zone offense seems more on the running game.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:37 PM ^
Don Brown should not need to be a miracle worker. Don Brown can't be a miracle worker.
No matter what Don Brown does, he's not going to hold Ohio State to 20 points.
The offense needs to do its part, and be able to do it against top teams, not just Maryland and Rutgers.
December 22nd, 2018 at 8:26 AM ^
If we need to see toughness in tight ends. Key dropped balls in big games cost us. Notre Dame and luckeye games most notable. Defense gets rest and away crowd is quieted. Not to mention the points gained.
December 22nd, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^
Don't forget the 2017 MSU game, McKeon had a horrible fumble that killed momentum and costs us points. TEs definitely need to show up in big games.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:25 PM ^
moar bodee blowz
December 21st, 2018 at 7:27 PM ^
would love 2 upgrade at Pep's position
December 21st, 2018 at 7:28 PM ^
Which plays were Pep's fault?
December 21st, 2018 at 7:31 PM ^
Every one that didn't result in a first down or TD.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:34 PM ^
Which recruits were Pep’s?
December 21st, 2018 at 7:34 PM ^
Passing plays and most everything up through the Northwestern game. :)
December 21st, 2018 at 8:31 PM ^
Inclusive of the NU game? Because that wasn't a good one.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:07 PM ^
Any sense that we will be making a change this off-season? (I know some thought it looked like he was departing last off-season....)
December 21st, 2018 at 7:35 PM ^
Well gameplanned slants and screen passes will take this offense to another level.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:23 PM ^
Do you prefer Chopin or Beethoven?
December 22nd, 2018 at 7:49 AM ^
Ahhh, Bach.
December 22nd, 2018 at 11:37 AM ^
Mesh routes would also be helpful, along with other levels type combos.
Just putting in slants a screens won't do it.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:28 PM ^
Shea coming back was inevitable... He needs lots of work I still don’t see him being a day 1 or 2 prospect
December 21st, 2018 at 7:32 PM ^
Please, just shut up. Our offense was solid this year, the man can coach.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:35 PM ^
When Bo first came to Michigan, he made it a point to build his team so that it can beat Ohio State.
Smart Man. It worked.
Priority #1, #2, #3 for Jim Harbaugh in year 5 is to beat Ohio State. Period.
So, what kind of team will beat Ohio State?
Within the first 10 minutes of his introductory press conference, Ryan Day made it explicitly clear what his team will be like. He said he will have a team that will "stretch the field and make the opposing defense have to cover every singe yard of it."
We already saw what his offense looks like this year. And he's shopping for another Haskins type in Fields, as opposed to standing pat on a JT Barrett type in Martell.
He's going full Big 12, folks. There is no guesswork here.
What does that mean for Michigan?
We will need an offense that can keep pace and put points on the board.
Forget about the "body blow" approach where we try to control the ball with long possessions that often come up empty in the hope of a big 4th quarter.
Ohio State is not going to cooperate.
While we are fiddle fucking around with long possessions that come up empty, they're going to be scoring TDs like they did this year.
We are not going to be winning Ohio State games 17-10 like it's the 1970's. It is pointless to even try.
These are the points that Ohio State has scored on Michigan this decade: 37, 34, 26, 42, 42, 42, 30, 31, 62.
Anybody see a pattern?
And this includes some supposedly "offensively challenged" OSU teams under Tressel or with Warinner as OC.
Our offense needs to be targeting 40+ points to even think about beating Ohio State.
This year, it scored only 13 points on its own through 3 full quarters (it got another 6 on an OSU turnover inside the 10). It went completely scoreless in the 3rd quarter.
That won't cut it.
Our defense will be in rebuilding mode next year. This can't all fall on Don Brown's lap. The offense will need to be the one to carry the team. If we are going to beat Ohio State in 2019, the offense will need to do it.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:49 PM ^
You nailed it and this is just about diary worthy. Good stuff M-Dog.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:17 PM ^
Are you a coach somewhere?
December 21st, 2018 at 8:08 PM ^
I listened to their presser when Urban retired and he and Day mentioned that their goals would remain the same:
1.) Beat our rivals (us)
2.Win the rest of our games.
They put an emphasis on The Game and it sure seems to be working.
The offense that ripped us on November 24th was Day's offense, not Meyer's and I agree with you (and Bo) that we better design our offense to beat OSU. We're not going to shove it down their throats like we do to many of our lesser opponents - not going to work.
And what really caught my attention was - I believe it was announcer Gus Johnson - that mentioned that Urban was very calm and relaxed before THE GAME - more than in the past. It was like they knew what was coming.
December 21st, 2018 at 9:23 PM ^
I wish this were printed out and put on JH's desk. I'm still waiting for him to have his epiphany about the college game. (It's not the NFL; different rules apply.)
Remember that at one point we had scheduled a summer camp with Art Briles as a guest speaker. That was canceled when the scandal broke, but in an alternative universe, I imagine Harbaugh seeing the light after hearing Briles' thoughts on college football offenses. (Remember when his team was down its top two QB, top RB, and top WR in a bowl game, so he installed a bunch of single-wing concepts, had five different players snap the ball, and ran for 645 yards in a win.)
December 22nd, 2018 at 12:04 AM ^
The defense will have to get some stops though
December 22nd, 2018 at 7:57 AM ^
True. But the realistic expectation against Ohio State moving forward is that it is stops on 30% of their drives, not 70%.
If you know that in advance, what should your offense look like?
Hint: It's not winning TOP but going scoreless for an entire quarter like we just did.
December 22nd, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
Michigan won 40-34, gave up 17 in regulation in the game that went to double overtime and lost 30-27 and should have won handily in the game that they lost 31-20 but didn't for reasons that have been discussed as nauseum.
Yes, the offense needs to score more.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:37 PM ^
Get over it. Nothing is changing.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:45 PM ^
If Harbaugh doesn’t update the offense he will feel the heat from many.
If he doesn’t update the offense he isn’t a good coach.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:52 PM ^
He'll make small tweaks to placate people he actually listens to, but an overhaul is not his style.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:40 PM ^
100% agree. Harbaugh has everything he needs. All the tools he could want in his "toolbox" on offense. Please, for the love of god, unleash the krakens on offense and start on 12/29... Now back to your regularly scheduled program......
December 21st, 2018 at 7:46 PM ^
I agree with your comments. However, the +1 is for “krakens.”
December 21st, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
As a longtime Patriots fan, it's kind of interesting to hear a fanbase clamor for more horizontal concepts to the offense. The Brady offenses of 2012 and 2013 especially were predicated on lateral movement and getting guys in space, and the storyline was totally reversed-- fans wanted nothing more than a Deep Threat, national media used to sneer about the offense being based on bells and whistles and horizontal movement.
I am really optimistic about next season's offense though. I still worry a little about OT, but it will still be better on paper than this year's situation, which turned out pretty well. I'm hoping that JH adopts more of a "throw to score, run to win" philosophy, but I think Shea's development will be bigger for the offense than any schematic overhauls. Moving in the pocket, ball placement, some of the other stuff that came up in UFR a bit, that's the ceiling to smash through as far as the passing game goes. He could really tear it up next season.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:54 PM ^
How about playing to win instead of playing not to lose?
December 21st, 2018 at 7:54 PM ^
Pep is the problem....
December 21st, 2018 at 7:57 PM ^
No, being a control freak is the problem.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:53 PM ^
Tell me where Pep has done a good job in his career, where he improved a team.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:54 PM ^
Damn! I was sure I had missed a never-before-seen event...stepped out onto the porch...hmm-the moon is still up there...was sure the sky had fallen.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:56 PM ^
There is something wrong with the passing game. I can’t tell on TV what it is, though. Either Patterson is too reluctant to throw at times or the receivers aren’t getting open - or both. I wonder about the passing scheme.
December 21st, 2018 at 7:58 PM ^
The Borges offense had a better passing scheme.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:25 PM ^
Damned obvious. They saw that Shea threw some "hope this goes" passes, and they coached him down to avoid mistakes. It worked to some degree, but they took it too far.
"Body Blows". That's playing not to lose. Fraidy-cat football. Weak.
Open up the passing game!!! It doesn't matter if it's crossing routes, deep routes, paper routes, whatever.
We've got play makers. Let them get out there and ball.
Go Blue!
December 21st, 2018 at 8:31 PM ^
Revisionist history.
December 21st, 2018 at 8:27 PM ^
Maybe it's a Shea comfort level thing, not sure. They are paranoid about third and long. The offense is designed around picking up a couple of yards on 1st and on 2nd so that you are in third and 5 or less.
So they don't want to pass down the field on 1st or 2nd and risk an incompletion that leads to 3rd and long.
But it's those constant shots down the field that loosen up the D for the run game and constrain those run blitzes.
A QB at Shea's level should not be hesitant about 3rd and 7 into a zone. it should be second nature. But it's not there yet . . .
December 21st, 2018 at 8:49 PM ^
Shea is learning to be turnover averse (which is a good thing), but it's made him cautious about throwing contested balls. He's trying to stay in the pocket more (which is a good thing) but he's taking stupid sacks on first or second down when he should throw it or throw it away. He still doesn't see the whole field, and while play action is helpful in run situations, it does take the QBs eyes off of the secondary until he turns around. The receivers are better than they were, but they still don't work hard enough to get open and stay open, or adjust and fight for the ball when things are less than perfect.