Trader Jack

December 18th, 2018 at 8:43 AM ^

On the bright side, Sam has also been dropping major hints that Dax Hill is going to wind up in the class, and Steve Wiltfong CB'ed Cornelius Johnson to Michigan this morning. It sucks to lose Harrison, but that's how it goes sometimes.

SAMgO

December 18th, 2018 at 8:51 AM ^

He has not been dropping "major hints" about Dax flipping at all. He's basically only said that we'll recruit him through the late signing day and implying that there's a chance, but I can't imagine any rational person viewing that as anything but him trying to placate the fanbase with this class completely falling apart.

SAMgO

December 18th, 2018 at 9:05 AM ^

He's so vague. Sam drops "hints" like this all the time when he may have heard from one of the coaches that things are looking up. But then he clarifies that Saban went in-home this week and that Hill has not told the Bama staff that he's not going to stay with them.

Mike Weber, Najee Harris, Da'shawn Hand, George Karlaftis, Zach Harrison...we've heard these hints before. None of those guys ended up or will end up at Michigan. This is only recent history. Remember Josh Garnett? Michigan lock too, right? Dax will soon just be another addition to the "could have been" list.

bronxblue

December 18th, 2018 at 9:31 AM ^

Largely agree, though the Karlaftis situation was always contingent on Brohm leaving.  I 100% believe he's at UM of Brohm left Purdue.

The rest is true.  I will say that I never assumed UM would pull a kid out of Columbus.  My sense is that Harrison probably likes UM enough but there are a lot of people in his orbit that want him at OSU.  I am not sold that he would have gone to UM even if they had won that game, though getting blown out obviously made that decision easier.

ColeIsCorky

December 18th, 2018 at 9:41 AM ^

Sam has said he is going to make public the story for why he has stood his ground so hard on Dax Hill. So no, you are wrong. 

And seriously, what the heck. Do you guys not know that kids actually DO change their mind at the last freaking minute? You used two examples above of guys that you cannot blame absolutely anyone for thinking they will go to Michigan. Mike Weber changed his mind on signing day after Karan Higdon signed - that is a public statement of fact. And Najee Harris, as has been said 100 times on this board, had his class schedule and room number already picked out among other things. He was fully enrolled. He was coming. Everyone inside the program "knew" he was coming. Then Tua held him hostage at the All American Game (mostly sarcastic), and he never showed up. That was also the reason why Michigan recruits kept on tweeting about denying the thought that Najee was sticking to Alabama during the game, because he had also told all of them that he was going. There is always way more to the story than just "X committed to X." Kids change their mind. Crazy stuff happens. That is recruiting. And that is why Sam and the best of Insiders will never get these things 100% correct. 

From everything Sam has said, and this is based off speculation from listening to Sam for a few years now practically every day, Dax Hill is another one of those circumstances. If he doesn't come, I interpret it as because he changed his mind this week. Again, that is mostly speculation, but the hints Sam is dropping comparing him to pre-transfer Aubrey Solomon as well as many other hints since then say that Dax Hill likely re-committed privately sometime soon around the time Jim Harbaugh made the public statement about staying at Michigan. 

I am only going this far into a prediction because Sam has stated that he will be very up front after Signing Day (which I believe he expects Dax Hill to sign somewhere tomorrow) as to what happened with Dax Hill and why he was so bold and cryptic about him after the commitment to Alabama. If I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I don't believe I am in saying that Dax re-committed. And again, per your examples above, that does not mean that he still can't go to Alabama. I am just saying what I believe has happened so far, and I am sure we will find out all the details soon.

TK

December 18th, 2018 at 9:55 AM ^

Interesting. 

Yet it still seems not all that plausible. If Dax wanted back in I don’t see how it benefits him to “privately” re-commit to the staff. Why not just let the world know that Bama deceived him? Doesn’t add up to me. I’d like to believe, and I also believe that Sam really believes there is a chance and isn’t doing this just to get attention. But I’d say it’s still far more likely he signs with Bama. Like 90 pct likely. 

SAMgO

December 18th, 2018 at 9:56 AM ^

This man has fully bought into the Sam Webb spin cycle. If he's ever wrong, it's just because the situation changed, not because he doesn't always get accurate information, right? Webb is the de-facto mouthpiece for the football program. He'll get and report the information that the program wants him to get and report, which isn't always accurate.

And look, I actually like Sam most of the time. We benefit from having a trusted channel for the coaches to leak information. I've actually been subscribed to scout/247 for a couple years longer than I've been on MGoBlog. But in reading him you have to be able to sift through the sunshine blowing coming from inside the program, because it's there and sometimes it's heavy. Right now it's heavy.

LeCheezus

December 18th, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^

Sam is usually pretty good about admitting when he is wrong.  He also has a lot more info than he puts out there for everyone, sometimes because it has been told to him in some level of confidence by players, coaches or parents.  In general, he does focus on the positive as he doesn't want to promote anything that will hurt the program. 

I understand what you're getting at with "sunshine blowing" but I'd say its more like "accentuating the positive."  He does drop negative news, but I'd say he does it in a subtle way and you need to do a little reading between the lines.  He's alluded to ZH looking less and less likely to go to Michigan (CB "less strong", the Game "really shook up ZH's world").  I guess you should look at anything Sam puts out as slightly negative as something that is probably a bigger deal than he is making it.  With Eric Gray he indicated the staff felt they were still in it, but said multiple times over multiple weeks that if he didn't make it to campus to a game to not expect him in the class.

SAMgO

December 18th, 2018 at 9:08 AM ^

Unfortunately top-200 guys don't put you in the National Championship picture. We only have the third highest average star rating in the conference. Dax flipped and Harrison is going to commit to OSU tomorrow. Our most recent five star commit just transferred. Things are not looking up.

bacon1431

December 18th, 2018 at 10:17 AM ^

Star average is irrelevant when you have as many quality recruits as the other top schools. Is a class of 15 4* and 10 3* worse than a class that has only 15 4*? I wouldn’t think so. I don’t care about average as long as we have the similar quantity and quality as the other top schools. 

steve sharik

December 18th, 2018 at 10:42 AM ^

Clemson's last 5 classes:

  • 2014: 16
  • 2015: 9
  • 2016: 11
  • 2017: 16
  • 2018: 7
  • Avg. : 11.8

Michigan's recruiting under Jim Harbaugh:

  • 2016: 8
  • 2017: 5
  • 2018: 22
  • 2019*: 9
  • Avg.: 11

As John Beilein would say, just gotta keep grinding, keep working.  If these players are coached up, it will crack soon.

outsidethebox

December 18th, 2018 at 8:59 AM ^

It would be wonderful to get Harrison. However, the fact is that Daxton Hill is much more critical to the Michigan roster than Harrison. I love Harrison but given a choice between the two I take Hill every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Hopefully, at least one of them picks the good guys.

I still think the lack of real action (from Michigan) around the Harrison situation is most curious...as in no "replacement" offers. It could mean one of several things: 1) Harrison is coming, 2)Harrison is not coming but a "replacement" is secured or 3) Harrison is not coming and Michigan is pleased with who they have.

I guess, just as interestingly, my second paragraph applies to Hill as well.

 

SAMgO

December 18th, 2018 at 9:29 AM ^

Lol. Come on dude. First off, why would a private "commitment" from Dax Hill mean anything? If he were to flip back to Michigan it'd be his second de-commitment in as many weeks. Regardless, Webb said he hasn't de-committed from Bama. More generally, silent commits are worth jack shit. Najee Harris had a West Quad assignment and an MCard. 

Realus

December 18th, 2018 at 9:51 AM ^

I can see why you have negative points.

Sam IS wrong a lot.  But so is everyone regarding the decisions of 17 year old kids.

Sam is very likely LESS wrong than most and possibly one of the best.  But I haven't done the analysis to say that.  So I won't.

Of course, you have done any analysis either so you shouldn't be saying shit.  It's recruiting.

gustave ferbert

December 18th, 2018 at 10:39 AM ^

Kid from Columbus picking michigan over OSU?  That's ambitious to begin with especially in the face of his family being ostracized by those meatheaded shit sacks that populate that region.  And when I say ostracized I'm being polite.  They are probably making threats so profound and disgusting, that decorum prohibits listing them here. 

 

 

Eli

December 18th, 2018 at 8:43 AM ^

I do not follow recruiting much, but if it’s true that nobody really knows this dudes plans, then maybe this is just a guess based on mood around the fan base/ team? Not sure how he would know since it seems so air tight. 

Gulogulo37

December 18th, 2018 at 8:52 AM ^

Well that "if" is debatable. It's not like he just announces everything he knows. I don't think it means much but I know they get a score on the crystal ball accuracy, so I think it's a little more than a guess I don't follow things closely either though.