Semi OT: The Big 12 Race
Most people on this board seem to think the biggest threat to a 1 loss playoff for Michigan is Georgia beating Bama and Bama getting in over Michigan. I disagree with this for two reasons; 1) A 1 loss bama getting in over 2 loss OSU means nothing for this scenario and 1 loss Michigan is getting in over a non conference champ 1 loss Bama and 2) Bama isn't going to lose so it isn't going to come up.
To me the much bigger threat is a 1 OU with the number 1 offense in the country getting in over 1 loss Michigan, and a big reason I'm concerned about this is because we are going to be playing a 4 loss (and would anyone really be surprised if they lost to minnesota) NW team while OU will likely be playing a top 15 team. That would allow OU to be able to make a "statement" in the big 12 championship game by blowing out a good team a la OSU blowing out Wisconsin to jump TCU and Baylor while Michigan is in a lose lose situation where a blowout of NW impresses nobody and a close game looks bad. Given that what do you all think is the ideal scenario for us for the big 12 championship game?
Possibilities given OU winning out (Iowa state and Texas play this weekend, both are currently in the top 25):
OU vs WVU (playing back to back weeks, would be 10-2 going into the game with losses to OU and Iowa state)
OU vs Iowa State (Iowa state will be 10-2 with loses to Iowa and OU and would certainly be top 15)
OU vs Texas (In this scenario Texas is 10-2 with losses to WVU and MD and is also certainly top 15)
Figure it could be fun to talk about on a slower with Indiana up (and yes I know this means nothing if we don't beat OSU)
November 12th, 2018 at 12:24 PM ^
"Incarnate Word?" Is that, like, the Hollywood sign but for Jesus?
November 12th, 2018 at 11:59 AM ^
Beat IU, beat Ohio State, beat Northwestern.
I don't think OU is a threat. I do think 12-1 Alabama is.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
West Virginia vs OU in 2 weeks. if WV beats OU then that answers that question.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
I do not understand how Big12 teams can be so so bad on defense, for well over a decade now.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
OU losing is our best chance at making the CFP according to 538. Even if we win out 538 still projects we don't make the CFP if Clemson, ND, and OU all win out as well. Surprisingly whether Georgia or Alabama wins out has little effect.
BUT, I think this projection doesn't adequately factor in the chaos that should ensue over the next few weeks. In the past 3 years at least one top 5 team has lost between Weeks 12 and 15, and most years that includes at least one undefeated team.
Right now there are 9 Power 5 teams with 0 or 1 loss (including ND). After Week 12 there were 6 P5 teams with 0 or 1 loss in 2017, 7 in 2016, and 12(!) in 2015. After Week 15 there were only 5 teams with 0 or 1 loss in 2017, 4 in 2016, and 6 in 2015. Those numbers also don't factor in undefeated teams that lost between Weeks 12 and 15 (e.g., Alabama and Wisconsin in 2017) and teams that lost more than 1 game between Weeks 12 and 15 (e.g., Miami in 2017).
So we can probably expect some chaos over the next 3 weeks. There are of course 3 losses on the board with Alabama-Georgia, OU-WVU, and Michigan-Ohio State all playing each other. But it would surprise me if there wasn't at least 1 or 2 other losses hiding in there somewhere, meaning that when it all shakes out we're probably down to 4 or 5 teams with 0 or 1 loss.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:09 PM ^
Ignore 538 on this topic.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:22 PM ^
Why you don't like what their model says? They explain what goes into the data and it seems reasonable enough to me.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:37 PM ^
538 can give percentages on W-L records as well as anyone. Their predictions on who the committee will select are counter-intuitive, at least to me. They say a one loss OU is 4x more likely to make the playoffs than a one loss Bama. Also, that there is a fair chance OU jumps an undefeated Notre Dame.
I thinking they are grossly overestimating OU's chances with the committee. Their wins down this stretch have been the least convincing of any contender. The committee isn't going to use a mathematically based metric to make their picks and OU's horrible defense is going to weigh against them.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:39 PM ^
I've been trying to think about why their model really loves Oklahoma. It made more sense before the first rankings came out, when it wouldn't be completely unreasonable for a model to think the committee would rank OU above Michigan. However, the playoff rankings are now out, with Michigan being consistently ranked above Oklahoma week to week, yet the 538 model still loves OU. There are two reasons I can think of as possibilities given their published methodology ( https://fivethirtyeight.com/methodology/how-our-college-football-playoff-predictions-work/ ):
1) Michigan's loss to ND may really hurt them in this methodology, as in the model may be saying: "Michigan already has a head to head loss to a playoff team and is therefore unlikely to be a playoff team"
and
2) Their model assumes very little consistency week to week in the committee rankings based on the TCU/Baylor/Ohio State scenario. I think they overreacted to that scenario, given that Ohio State moved up mostly due to the absolute drubbing they gave Wisconsin, not necessarily just because they won. Overall I think the committee is more consistent than their model gives it credit for.
In any case I'm kind of hoping this scenario with OU, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Clemson winning out happens, because in that scenario Michigan probably makes the playoff and FiveThirtyEight will most likely explain why their model overvalued Oklahoma throughout the season, since they usually do some sort of debrief on the season.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:04 PM ^
Just beat IU, OSU, then NW.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:04 PM ^
the bigXII SUCKSSSSSSS. Oklahoma lost to Texas. Michigan lost to an undefeated Notre Dame the first week. I would downvote you OP if I could.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:07 PM ^
UM has outscored their last 4 opponents 143-34. Defense matters. UM plays excellent defense and plays against good defenses. Clearly that's not the case in the Big 12
November 12th, 2018 at 6:36 PM ^
Oklahoma has outscored their last 4 opponents 202-134. Their last opponent scored more points in that one game than Michigan’s opponents in the last 4 games combined. OU’s defense struggles with stopping unranked opponents. They aren’t in the same class as the current Top 4.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^
Oklahoma won't get in with that shitty defense. UM is the better team overall. They have the best defense and their offense is playing very well.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
i really hope defense matters. they might be impressed by flashy high scoring offenses though.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:08 PM ^
The committee does not instill me with confidence, but they are at least better than Joe Average fan.
While Joe Average fan will go gaga over OU's offense and ignore everything else, the committee will recognize their pathetic defense and ding them for it.
Our only risk would be if OU makes a statement on offense and defense, and shuts out WVU like 50-0 while we struggle with NW.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
The committee never instills me with confidence. At the end of the day, the committee is comprised of a bunch of politicians picking who should be in a playoff. I mean, Condoleeza Rice is literally a politician.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:10 PM ^
OU will not win in Morgantown with that atrocious defense.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:30 PM ^
West Virginia looks pretty good. I think they can knock off OU with even a mediocre defensive showing.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:15 PM ^
Six things Smooth Jimmy and I both know:
1. Alabama will beat Georgia in the SEC Chamouinship, although it will be fairly close.
2. Pittsburgh will beat Clemson in the ACC Championship
3. Syracuse will beat Notre Dame this weekend
4. Michigan will beat both OSU and Northwestern by 21+ points and be #2 in the final CFP ranking
5. West Virginia will beat Oklahoma on black Friday and then turn around and lose in the Big 12 Championship
6. Michigan and Alabama will play for the national championship.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
Pitt winning the ACC championship. very interesting....that could throw a wrench in things for Clemson.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
Best scenario is to win remaining games, and to beat NW convicingly in the B10 championship. Hard to see how we get left home if we do so
November 12th, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
Assuming Alabama wins out, yes, you're right. If Georgia beats them, the situation gets a lot murkier.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:17 PM ^
I think the Big XII is only a threat to a Big Ten team getting in if OSU is the one that wins out. Right now they're sitting at 10 after looking very unconvincing for most of the season. Credit them for continuing to win, but they just don't look the part for a team that has as much talent as it does.
As far as Michigan goes, I think our only concern (should we win out) is what happens in the SEC title game. We've blown out our recent competition, and while Oklahoma has continued to win, they've been scraping by against teams that really aren't that good. And their defense, like the rest of the teams in the Big XII, is atrocious, so their only hope for winning big games is getting into a shootout and hoping the other team makes some mistakes. Michigan is a far more balanced team than OU or WVU.
If we are fortunate enough to win out, we should be in. But if Georgia can manage to upset Alabama, we will be sweating out the committee's decision (barring a Clemson/ND slip-up in the next two weeks). Alabama continues to get all of this talk about being one of the greatest teams ever, Nick Saban's best team since his arrival, record-shattering QB, been in the playoffs every single year, and on and on and on. They're going to have a lot of ammo at their disposal for convincing the committee they still belong. And I'm not all that confident that Michigan DOESN'T get left out in the cold.
The only silver lining there would be that the committee would get shit on for essentially telling the college football world that conference championships don't matter and that there's an automatic seat at the table for the SEC, maybe even two seats, in any given year. There's no way they could get through that decision without having to expand the field to 6-8 teams.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:28 PM ^
I 100% co-sign this. And I likewise believe that if the doomsday (for us anyways) unfolds with Georgia winning and us being left out it will definitely usher in an expanded playoff format to include all the power 5 conference winners plus one at large team.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:49 PM ^
need to go to 8 teams. a first round bye in a 6 team playoff gives the higher seeded teams too much of an advantage.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:21 PM ^
Beat Ohio
November 12th, 2018 at 12:23 PM ^
Big 12 football is difficult to watch.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:29 PM ^
Just imagine if Michigan was prepared for ND like they should have been and won.
I hate to say it but that ND-UM game will be considered the play-in game between ND and Michigan if Big XII champ is a 1-loss team.
As they say in Southern Russia, tough "shit-ski y'all."
November 12th, 2018 at 2:28 PM ^
This team didn't quite have the mindset yet in September to carry an undefeated season all they way to the playoffs.
The over reaction to the first loss is one of the main ingredients to the championship cake that's baking.
Us vs Everybody mentality, adopting revenge since it's "easier for 18-22 year olds to prove haters wrong than to not disappoint nervous fans", plus being able to really focus on one game at a time have all made it possible for this team to mature, and now be much more ready to finish "special".
November 12th, 2018 at 6:45 PM ^
It would make for far better ratings to put Michigan and ND into the playoffs. Both teams have incredibly large fan bases and then you have the whole rematch thing going. And it goes along with the Revenge Tour storyline. Ratings would be huge.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:32 PM ^
I don't like playing the what if especially since if Michigan wins out I really don't see anyway you can keep them out. Beat Indiana!
November 12th, 2018 at 12:43 PM ^
I haven't heard as much the past couple of weeks about how Oklahoma should be in the playoff mix because of their offense. The usual mantra was "who would you least like to play?" I hope the realization now is that no matter how good Oklahoma's offense is, their defense is so atrocious they in no way should be considered a top 4 team.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:47 PM ^
1 loss OU isn't getting in over us. OU fans have started to admit as much.
November 12th, 2018 at 1:54 PM ^
As an OU fan I agree.
November 12th, 2018 at 3:20 PM ^
Yeah, I've been on some OU boards and their fans in general feel that Michigan losing is the only way they should jump ahead of us.
They have no problem admitting their defense is terrible and will probably hold them back from being chosen over Michigan, without us losing again.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:48 PM ^
Michigan can make a statement by beating a top 10 team on the road to close out the season.
(along with beating 3 other ranked teams and holding 7 of 9 opponents to season lows, the Last 4 games Uofm has outscored opponents 143-34. Uofm is also the first BIG team to win 3 games in a row against ranked BIG opponents since 1997).
michigan wins out they will be in. Simple.
Oklahoma has made no statements - winning games very close to unranked teams and the loss to Texas is not good looking now.
November 12th, 2018 at 1:13 PM ^
A top 10 team and according to recruiting rankings in the past 4 to 5 years is more than likely second to 1 other team. Those guys being the mud lickers in Tuscacrawfish. It's actually further back years wise but for current roster I'm hitting on.
November 12th, 2018 at 12:57 PM ^
What about LSU, are we not freaking out over them anymore?
November 12th, 2018 at 1:00 PM ^
Win out and in.
November 12th, 2018 at 1:05 PM ^
Iowa State has three losses already.
November 12th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
I'm an Oklahoma grad and fan. OU doesn't deserve to be in a playoff with that defense.
Simply put, if Michigan wins out, they are in.
November 12th, 2018 at 2:14 PM ^
If it's somehow needed after a win in Columbus, pay off Northwestern with a trip to the Rose Bowl, invite UCF to play in the B1G Championship game.
Get the goodwill of letting the underdog have his chance while earning a stronger resume with a win.
November 12th, 2018 at 5:44 PM ^
If Bama Georgia UM Clemson ND and Oklahoma all have 1 loss at seasons end (or only 3 of them) Oklahoma is the least of our worries. This isn't 97 Nebraska where W/Ls and a coaching retiring are all that matters. In 2018 a kicked up ball for a win goes noticed or basically OT against hot garbage OK St. and issues vs Army. Oklahoma will sty behind Um/Georgia until one takes a second loss. LSU and WVU may be better teams.