Scenario where UM gets into playoff with loss to OSU.
Since this is a semi bye week(lol Rutger) my mind has been wondering a bit.
Starting thinking about what would happen if we lose to OSU. And I think there is still a path to the playoff if we do.
There are only 9 teams with less than 2 losses(my Alma mater UCF doesn't count, sorry Knights). The 3 undefeateds, plus 6 1-loss teams. So we would need the other 5 1-loss teams to lose and we would need to win the Big 10 CG.
The scenario: OSU loses to MSU tomorrow to lockup the east for us. Alabama, Clemson and ND win out, which gives Georgia 2 losses. West Virginia and Oklahoma lose 1 more time each, there's a good chance they play head to head twice, so splitting that works. Then we would just need Washington State to lose to Washington or in the Pac 12 title game.
That leaves 11-2 Big10 Champ UM competing against a 2 loss Big12 champ, a 2 loss Pac12 champ Washington State and a 2 loss Georgia who didn't win the SEC. We would have by far the 2 best losses and probably 3 top 25 wins. It's not a slam dunk, but I think we would have the best resume.
November 9th, 2018 at 12:58 PM ^
My rooting interests this week.
Wake Forest over NCState (done)
TCU over #9 West Virginia
Navy over #12 CFU
South Carolina over #15 Florida
#20 Penn St over Wisconsin
SMU over UCONN (schedule strength)
#16 MIss St over #1 Alabama
Ok St over #6 Oklahoma
Colorado over #8 Wash St
Tennessee over #11 Kentucky
NW over #21 Iowa (schedule strength)
Nebraska over Illinois (schedule strength)
#24 Auburn over #5 Georgia
FSU over #3 Notre Dame
Arkansas over #7 LSU
#17 BC over #2 Clemson
Ohio State and Michigan State-I understand the logic for rooting for MSU. At this point, losing to Ohio State with this team and not making the playoff is a huge disappointment so I am going to hope for an OSU win and a better ranking on their end for when we play, not only helping us get in the playoff if we beat them but potentially move out of the #4 spot also.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:23 PM ^
Hard to imagine us moving to #3 without a ND/Clemson/Bama loss. And it's hard for me to imagine us NOT moving to #3 in the event that one of those things happens, regardless of how highly OSU is ranked when we play them
November 9th, 2018 at 1:39 PM ^
I agree with what you said and your probably right. I just think that beating a #7 OSU team is better then a #15, especially if there is some shake up ahead of us. Ultimately just win, but its fun to think about all the possibilities.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:42 PM ^
You're giving the committee members way too much credit if you think they'd parse the games that closely.
November 9th, 2018 at 12:59 PM ^
I would rather beat OSU and miss the playoff to a one loss Georgia or whoever the committee ridiculously puts forward than make the playoff after losing to OSU.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
Interesting. I would rather have playoff than a win over OSU
November 9th, 2018 at 2:29 PM ^
I get that, I could see the fanbase coming down 50/50 on the question. National title is obviously another story.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:02 PM ^
Win the game
November 9th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
This scenario is needless.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:14 PM ^
I don't even wanna read this.
We may not even get in, winning out.
and we MUST beat osu for our own mental health's sake.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:21 PM ^
I bet LSU or Georgia would get the final bid. But it's an interesting scenario to consider. I don't understand why people are so against this kind of thinking.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:24 PM ^
Can we also add College Football Playoff scenarios for 2019 and 2020?
All of them?
Ok, I kid.
Realistically I just need the scenario where I'm able to get a bathroom break in the next 15 min before I explode.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
Want OSU to beat Sparty
Want UM to beat Rutger, IU and throttle OSU in the 'shoe
Want UM to dance in the confetti at Indy with its B1G crown
Want to make the CFPs
Then I will start making my X-mass list ... Go Blue !!!
November 9th, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
Yeah, we're not going to need that. Michigan is going to beat OSU. May not be easy, but it will be done.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:37 PM ^
I really like this analysis. +1 to you!
Georgia would be the stiffest competition in that scenario, but I agree with you we should have the edge (especially since we'd have a league title and they wouldn't).
November 9th, 2018 at 1:37 PM ^
The obvious question to be asked is why should a 2 loss team make the playoffs? Why would I care about a 2 loss team not making the playoffs? I look at any loss against Alabama as 1/2 a loss so I would go with another SEC team or an undefeated UCF along with Alabama, ND and Clemson.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
If we don’t beat OSU this season then I’m not sure it’s ever going to happen again. OSU is playing quite poorly and they appear to be derailing at the top. We are quite the opposite. At the Shoe or not, this year’s game is very winnable.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:53 PM ^
Like others, I’d rather beat OSU and not be in the playoff than lose and be in the playoff. That’s a complete no-brainer for me.
November 9th, 2018 at 1:56 PM ^
Zero chance we're in the playoff w/ a loss to OSU or the B1G playoff.
November 9th, 2018 at 2:06 PM ^
I though we cleared this up in several other threads. We should just try to WIN all the rest of the games. This is the best scenario.
November 9th, 2018 at 2:27 PM ^
Your scenario is plausible. I would rather, however, beat OSU and not have to worry about it.
November 9th, 2018 at 2:42 PM ^
Beat OSU
November 9th, 2018 at 2:47 PM ^
Don't even put this thought into the universe. Just win baby. Let the rest of the teams sort themselves out.
November 9th, 2018 at 2:48 PM ^
we will not lose and Urban will retire the 2nd time
November 9th, 2018 at 2:50 PM ^
Contemplate losing to OSU. Still concerned about making CFP. Incomprehensible.
If we lose to OSU the season is a failure, even if we win the national championship.
November 9th, 2018 at 3:25 PM ^
There is no scenario in which Michigan loses to Ohio State where Michigan will advance to the CFP given the way the committee is acting and wants the best matchup possible. It will go to any length to keep more than one SEC team eligible.
That is why you see these other league contenders lurking within striking distance with enough win power from a closing argument contest to leap over any Big Ten choice, which is essentially Michigan and Ohio State, still by the way in the hunt at 10, especially if it wins out.
No, Michigan is in with completion of its Revenge Tour or it won't get in the playoffs, and that's the bottom line. You've got Gene Smith on that committee and bunch of other ACC and SEC backers who are going to assure at least Clemson and Bama meet in the final if nothing else happens. They might give Georgia and Oklahoma another shot at each other in the other semi final if ND trips up.
Nope, the committee is going for the sure thing, and that is why you see them stacking those other SEC and ACC contenders as if they are relevant when the real reason is to backstop their choice for the Final Four.
November 9th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^
Only thing that matters at the moment is winning tomorrow, and hopefully registering a Rutger.
November 9th, 2018 at 3:40 PM ^
lets just do both, mmmk?
November 9th, 2018 at 3:56 PM ^
A season we do not beat OSU is not a good season. CFP be damned.
There were a few seasons in my Michigan fandom where we got into the Rose Bowl without beating OSU, such as 1982, 2004 and 2006. I do not view those as good seasons.
November 9th, 2018 at 7:01 PM ^
Winning those Rose Bowls would have helped though.
November 9th, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^
I DISAPPROVE OF THIS SCENARIO AND THIS THREAD
November 9th, 2018 at 4:22 PM ^
If we beat them & win the BIG championship, no worries. I hope we go to College Playoff no matter what but I’d prefer not to go by default.
November 9th, 2018 at 5:41 PM ^
Don't even want to go here...just win out
November 9th, 2018 at 5:57 PM ^
Think I'll just buy my ticket to Pasadena before they announce the top 4 teams given that scenario. Michigan's best win at that point would be against Penn State (????) and both loses are comparable to Georgia's two losses. Not sure a conference championship will be enough to overcome the mighty initials (ESPN and SEC).
November 9th, 2018 at 6:39 PM ^
What you suggest makes my head numb.
November 9th, 2018 at 6:45 PM ^
They don't and won't.
November 9th, 2018 at 7:12 PM ^
Oh this will end well.
“Should i start a -say we lose to OSU?- thread”
The answer is always no!
November 9th, 2018 at 9:55 PM ^
No need to worry about that, they need to do their job and win out.
November 9th, 2018 at 9:58 PM ^
We’re gonna win so I’m not even going to read the rest of the comments under this post, which was totally unnecessary.
November 9th, 2018 at 10:22 PM ^
The op should be made to stand at prone while Ben Mason runs him over at full speed.
Rashan didn't come back last week to lose to Urban & the wife beaters.
Mich is going to Columbus for revenge ...Doc Holiday style. Book it!
November 9th, 2018 at 11:41 PM ^
Jim hasn’t forgotten about the beat down in 2015, his first season at UM. In fact, he’s been patient enough with the terrible officiating, but this year he is not giving them an opportunity to alter the game outcome. Bet your house on UM. It’s going to be nasty in Columbus.
November 10th, 2018 at 7:54 AM ^
I fully want Sparty to beat Ohio State tomorrow. I don't give a rat's rear end about beating a good OSU. They didn't care that we were so bad during the Rich Rod and Hoke years; there's no asterisk next to us from 2008-2014.
Any other time, I would love to see Sparty lose, but in this game I'd be fine with them clobbering Meyer.
November 10th, 2018 at 1:20 PM ^
For history's sake and our own peace of mind, I say beat OSU plain and simple.