Dantonio's extra prep for Michigan is key to their success. True?
I don't want to be a strawman but I feel pretty confident saying the general narrative between both fanbases, talks show hosts and national talking heads is this: Dantonio puts extra prep and so much focus on the Michigan game that his teams are more prepared and that leads to him dominating the rivalry.
I decided to look back at the games to see if this is true. My thinking is that if MSU has special plays and schemes saved for Michigan and added preparation and more intensity for the rivalry you would see that play out in the beginning of games and their performance would exceed expectations.
Please chime in with additional game or situation details as I just don't see it. MSU loses in Dantonios 1st year is called Little Brother and the narrative begins.
2008 35-21 MSU-RR 1st year. Michigan is dreadful. MSU finishes a solid 9-4. They come in with hatred from the previous year and Michigan is a joke. With 5 minutes left to go in half it's 7-7 and Threet has just thrown his 2nd pick. Don't see any Dantonio magic here. Game went right to script.
2009 26-20 MSU- At MSU Michigan scores 1st and trails at half 10-6. Not exactly a master motivational job by Dantonio. Both teams ended up pretty medicore.
2010 34-17 MSU- Michigan had an actual team this year so at home hopes were high. Michigan came right down the field to start and Denard got picked in end zone. MSU did nothing on offense until the 2nd qtr and lead 17-10 at half. MSU ended up 11-2 that year so they had the better team and things again ended up pretty much as you would expect looking back.
2011 28-14 MSU- Trash tornado game. 2 evenly matched teams. 7-7 at half. Borges incompetence is not Dantonio genius.
2012 12-10 Michigan- Both teams are down from 2011. Ugly game. Michigan wins so no magic.
2013 29-6 MSU- One of best teams in MSU history at home vs end of Hoke regime. Blowout as expected.
2014 35-11 MSU- Ditto..
2015 27-23 MSU- Michigan leads at half 10-7. Miracle saves MSU
2016 32-23 Michigan- MSU has their scripted jumbo drive everyone raves about the reality is this was a blowout ...27-10 Michigan at half. Game over.
2017- 14-10 MSU- Michigan scores 1st in this game. More than anything MSU does Michigan commits 5 turnovers to hand this game over. Props I guess for accepting the gifts.
Credit to Dantonio for winning the games we handed him, but I don't see any games here where he took the inferior team and defeated Michigan because of the chips on his shoulder.
He has actually performed much better from an expectation standpoint against Penn St and Ohio St where he has engineered big wins and upsets. We have just basically sucked and handed him games over the last decade and he has taken them.
If he has prepped for Michigan so well and his team is so focused you would expect great starts from MSU where they dominate early and put the game away but I would say they have actually under performed early in most of these games. Maybe Dantonio is really good at halftime adjustments to pull these games out, but that's not the narrative.
What do you think?
October 15th, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^
2011 they scored 7 pts in 1st half. They were an 11-2 team. Your note on the cut blocking is interesting, but it didn't amount to much. An 11 win team at home should expect 7 points against anyone. Doesn't feel special to me.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:39 PM ^
Michigan was 11-2 too. This is what they do. Get a free TD on some trick play or script, shorten the game to increase variance and thus amplifying said free TD, and then make one thing happen late.
October 15th, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^
2011 was the trash tornado. That game is 100% on Hoke/Borges for deciding to pick that time to debut "Denard Robinson - pocket passer" with results that should not have been unexpected.
Other than that, 2015 seems like the only time an obviously superior, talent wise, Michigan team got beat. And that took the punt debacle and some shady reffing (that was the game Bolden got ejected for "targeting" by being blocked into the QB on the ground, his facemask lightly booping the QB).
Dantonio is a good "game day" coach, and always has been. He is not Turtle, Franklin, or Ferentz-against-normal-teams. Pretty much have to beat him with talent and execution, and one or the other has almost always been lacking since 2008.
October 16th, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^
Not sure that in 2015 M had "obviously superior talent" over Sparty. Connor Cook was a match for Jake Rudock at QB --- not necessarily better, but about as good. Sparty's defense was good to great, as usual. Sparty also outgained M on the ground by a wide margin.
I attended that game. I choose to recall not the fumbled punt but the duel between Jourdan Lewis and Aaron Burbridge. I had the glasses on them most of the game. Two highly talented athletes matching their skills against each other. Lewis was on Burbridge like the proverbial duck on a Junebug. Burbridge would shake Lewis one time, then Lewis would come back and break up the next pass. Sorry of course the game ended the way it did, but that Lewis-Burbridge matchup is for me that game's lasting memory.
FWIW, Felton Davis III, the "go-to" guy in the PSU game, was a freshman on that 2015 MSU team. He's the guy Long, Hill, and Watson will have to watch most closely, IMHO.
October 15th, 2018 at 2:57 PM ^
Mork takes the rivalry with or death seriousness and he's done pretty good with what he's had. His contract with Satan helps too.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:00 PM ^
Please stop blaming last year's loss on the rain.
Before the heavy rain, MSU dominated. They were up 14-3 and would have been up 21-3 if they didn't drop a wide open easy TD pass. We were fortunate to be only down 11 before the rains came. And then we outscored them 7-0 during the second half monsoon.
We lost the game eventually not because of the rain but because our coaching staff continued to try to pass the ball with a subpar QB in a monsoon. I remember a sequence on the drive after we cut it to 14-10 where we ran a few running plays for first downs and then inexplicably, started throwing again. Go figure.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
I was at the game. The monsoon started after we cut it to 14-10, not before. It was just starting to sprinkle when we scored, and then the heavens opened up.
BTW, while it's true that they dropped a pass in our red zone, in the first half we had a long TD taken off the board due to an iffy holding call. Also, on their first TD drive, Devin Bush was hit with a personal foul for retaliating to their cheap shot, turning 3rd down into 1st. The game really was closely played and the ultimate difference was that they scored two TDs in the redzone while we scored a TD and FG. That, and the 5-0 turnover margin.
Whether or not the rain helped them, facing John O'Korn certainly was a break for them (and OSU later on).
October 15th, 2018 at 3:45 PM ^
And their first touchdown drive was set up thanks to us losing a fumble in our own territory. Their offense did squat before that.
Turnovers was a major problem through the first several games last year.
October 15th, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^
Isaac doesn't cough up that ball on Michigan's 2nd drive, we probably head down for another score, go up by 10-14 points and it's an entirely different game. We gave that game away. Crediting some kind of brilliance on Dantonio's part is WAY overstating things.
Michigan will have the better gameplan on Saturday. Execute it cleanly and we win comfortably. Muck around with fumbles, bad reads, overthrown balls, and MSU will burn us. Good news is, I think as frustrated as we are with this bullshit narrative that writers and MSU slappies like to push that Dantonio "has our number", I think our guys are tired of it even more so. They'll be ready.
Paul's coming home.
October 15th, 2018 at 4:40 PM ^
That's my sentiment exactly, as far as the Issac fumble goes, that killed our momentum and by the time we recovered the Monsoon happened and just couldn't get anything going on offense. For the life of me, I'll never understand the logic behind trying the pass in those conditions especially when Higdon was averaging 6 yards a carry.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:09 PM ^
I think you wrote way too much. What you should have wrote is, " This game is an important game. So they want to mock us all they want to mock us, I'm telling them: it's not over. So they can print that crap all they want all over their locker room. It's not over. It'll never be over here. It's just starting... I'm going to be a coach here for a long time. It's not over. It's just starting."
Does that sound like someone who doesn't do a little more preparation for us?
October 15th, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
His record in the last 10 games vs Michigan would indicate so.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:13 PM ^
they ‘dominated’ against mostly bad teams fielded by rr and hoke. since harbaugh has taken over, they managed one of the all-time flukiest wins and relied on jok turning it over 5 times in a fucking monsoon.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:16 PM ^
Dantonio deserves respect. He prepares specifically for Michigan because the stakes are higher when it comes to recruiting.
His teams play up to the level of competition consistently. And they don't give up, playing all four quarters. We shouldn't and I'm sure Harbaugh isn't, taking Michigan State for granted.
Wisconsin was great and all, but much room for improvement, and MSU will exploit those areas in which we fail to improve.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:21 PM ^
Harbaugh nailed it when he took over and met the media in December 2014. They are a great program. The coach clearly deserves the majority of the credit.
I don't think there is a more matter of fact coach going than Harbaugh. So when Jim says the team will be very intense Saturday, that is a positive signal. Because we at least are even up in talent and probably better.
I think we overanalyze it at this point because of the freakish events of last year and the hard to define oddness of 2015. But hey are a very good program.
My first thought after Wisconsin was now a split in the next two will still allow Michigan to probably play for hardware in Columbus. It was about business for the larger picture of the season. When you've won basically twice as much as you've lost against a team, that's how I take it. My first reaction without thinking of much else.
That's not how many Michigan fans take it anymore. I think you have to give a lot of credit to MSU and Dantonio for creating that emotion to the whole thing. Making it matter to Michigan fans. They've earned the fact that this is a rivalry.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:26 PM ^
I realize this is not the point of the post, but chalk it up the better in me. When looking at that list, I think I got to like the first half under and second half over prop bets. Almost all of the games seemed to have low scoring first halves followed by "explosive" (by UM/MSU standards) second halves. Will have to look into the prop bets on that one.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:32 PM ^
It's all about the turnovers. During the last 10 games the turnover margin is 22-14 and during the last 5 games it's 11-4. Only twice in the past 10 years has the winning team (both times MSU) had more turnovers than the losing team.
Take care of the ball (monsoon or not) and it puts us in great spot to win this game.
October 16th, 2018 at 9:43 AM ^
Part of the turnover battle is luck. Well, last Saturday they fumbled 4 times and recovered all of them. They also threw an easy pick that was dropped. My hope is that they used up some of their turnover luck against PSU.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:44 PM ^
Here's what I think. He's 4-2 against Michigan in years where the teams have met as equals. (Wins in 2009, 2011, 2015, 2017; losses in 2007 and 2012.)
That's pretty good. Michigan has been at a near-historic low the last eleven years. But that record, even more than the overall head to head, tells me he is a good coach, period.
October 15th, 2018 at 4:14 PM ^
Were we really their equal last year, with O'Korn playing QB? O'Korn threw two (!) TD passes last year, in nine games.
I would agree with the others but that makes it 3-2, with the punt play being the difference.
October 15th, 2018 at 3:44 PM ^
I thought I read or heard once that when Tressel was at Ohio State, he would do something every day or every week to prepare for Michigan.
Dantonio's kind of a Tressel protege, and like Tressel he knows that beating Michigan is ultimately the best thing he can do to satisfy his fans, administrators, etc. So I wouldn't be surprised if Dantonio does something every day or week to prepare for Michigan.
October 15th, 2018 at 4:00 PM ^
Ain't nothing wrong with being a Straw Man.
October 15th, 2018 at 4:00 PM ^
I always felt we would have won in 2009 if Forcier had not hurt his shoulder against Indiana the week before.
October 15th, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^
Has to be something to it, Bo did the same thing by having a portion of practice dedicated to osu. Kids take their cues from the coaches and team leaders, and they will focus accordingly.
October 15th, 2018 at 4:02 PM ^
I think it works in a bit more of a complex way than having scripted opening drives or secret tricks. I actually think Dantonio built his entire career at MSU around beating Michigan. It's the engine that keeps driving that truck.
In any organization success as a leader depends on your credibility, your ability to get people to do what you tell them to do as well as they possibly can. You can preach all the right things or be an all-time level genius on theory, it won't matter if people don't believe you, if people don't all pull in the same direction.
Dantonio turned MSU into a program punching above its weight because he has become part of its identity in a way that you only see with program builders a la Bo or Woody. Beating Michigan is a necessary precondition for that at MSU. It provides instant credibility and generates loyalty, cohesion etc. all these things you want in a team.
Of course it helped that his early years coincided with Michigan's darkest days. But the problem for us is that beating us back then turned them into a much better version of themselves than they were back then. Success builds on success, credibility builds on credibility. So even as we climbed out of that deep hole, we still struggled to match them never mind overtake them. At the same time, all of our coaches since then had to live with the credibility problems created by not being able to beat rivals.
So what I'm saying is that it's not just "oh well MSU's 10 win team beat Michigan's meh team, so what", it's that those MSU teams were 10 win teams in part because of Dantonio caring so much about beating Michigan and instilling that confidence and intensity in his teams which made them a better team vs everyone else as well.
I think that if we beat MSU three years in a row - starting this year - not only would Dantonio be gone by 2021, MSU would likely once again be a mediocre program.
October 15th, 2018 at 4:12 PM ^
All you have to do is compare every Dantonio recruiting class at Michigan State since he arrived there versus Michigan's classes under Carr, RR, Hoke and Harbaugh.
Then you understand the magnitude of Dantonio's accomplishment.
Dantonio has been outgunned on the recruiting trail by all of his BIG10 most of or all of those years. And not by a little bit. But decisively defeated on the recruiting trail. He has simply achieved more than Michigan has with a lot less amunition.
Like a modern day gridiron Captain Ahab, Dantonio has successfully twisted his hate, righteous indignation and resentment for Michigan and motivated the shit out of his comparatively less heralded, rag-tag recruits, and has used that to fuel MSU's performance and dole out retribution on the field.
Of course, Michigan football fielding everything from arrogant and complacent teams like the 2007 squad to or the clueless/incompetent 2014 Hoke team certainly gave Dantonio a helping hand.
Unlike Ahab, Dantonio has not only killed his goddamned white whales over and over, he has a meat locker full of white whale carcasses over the last eleven years.
So one must give credit where it is due. Dantonio's MSU teams won those games over Michigan in a multitude of ways, often taking everything and more that Michigan was willing to give them.
This was true from the start, and that 2007 game as well. MSU almost won that game.
The last decisive Michigan win over MSU was 2006, 31-13. That's not a coincidence.
October 15th, 2018 at 5:53 PM ^
True. They have benefited from stability too. I think Michigan is getting there again. I'm not always sold on stars, but time is needed to develop good players...and obviously the right staff is crucial. Michigan has had 3 coaching changes since Dantonio started at MSU. His program has been stable, ours, not so much. Simple as that. I believe we are now stable.
October 15th, 2018 at 8:57 PM ^
Unlike Hoke and RR, Dantonio recruits a bevy a quarterbacks to find an occasional excellent one. He then focuses on walk-ons and developing people for 5 or 6 years. He also seems to me that he was the first coach to coach regular hand grabs by DBs making the refs choose throw a flag on every play or let them grab. Brian Kelly called them out on it.
October 15th, 2018 at 11:00 PM ^
October 15th, 2018 at 11:00 PM ^
October 15th, 2018 at 4:20 PM ^
Since Harbaugh came? No, only bloody minded fate has stepped in. He should be winless the last three years.
October 15th, 2018 at 4:25 PM ^
It is interesting reading that...at the end of the day the better team (most years) won. Some of those games had some fluky and crazy plays or just weird weather so it made it feel like UM was king ding a ling and little msu lucked into the win.
That's not what happened. The better team won. I believe UM is genuinely the better team this year. I wasn't sure last year due to UM not having a viable qb.
October 15th, 2018 at 5:09 PM ^
Since 2007, other than 2011, 2012, and 2015, the team that won this game finished the season higher in S&P+ than the team that lost. Bill's numbers like us this year, but MSU is such a weird team that can consistently win without looking good on the field or on the stat sheet.
October 15th, 2018 at 5:34 PM ^
So many other factors that played a part in the last decade. He's a good coach though. No doubt. Hate him because of that. I loved John L. Still do.
October 15th, 2018 at 8:14 PM ^
I think the Maize and Blue finally have the horses to win this game soundly (like two years ago). If the trajectory of both programs continues, the next ten years will look very different than the last.
October 15th, 2018 at 8:33 PM ^
pet Scott Bell on Twitter my eyes were opened to the faux legend of Mork:
Scott Bell
@sbell021
·
1h
Hearing a lot of Michigan State fans go straight to the "records against ranked opponents” line. Could it be that they're trying to deflect from Mark Dantonio's 21 (!!) losses to unranked opponents since being hired by Michigan State?
Scott Bell
@sbell021
·
3h
There are seven Big Ten coaches that have been with their programs since 2015 -- the year Jim Harbaugh was hired. Mark Dantonio ranks dead last among those seven in win
Dantoni is 2-16 all time in true road games vs teams that finish the season ranked...those 2 games are punt 6 vs Mich and the rainstorm game last second FG vs OSU in same season (Urban Meyer essentially sat Zeke the week before The Game); 3-16 if PSU finishes ranked this season.
October 15th, 2018 at 8:56 PM ^
Fuck Sparty. The days of cheap wins against big brother are over. Let’s take our team of superior athletes and coaching into East Lansing and curb stomp there ass.
October 15th, 2018 at 10:41 PM ^
Michigan is laser focused for this game. They are clearly superior in every way. Offense, defense and even special teams with their punter out. The breaks have been going our way this year. Wisconsin is better than State.
We will be dancing in East Lansing! 34-13 Michigan. GO BLUE!!
October 15th, 2018 at 11:05 PM ^
We have just basically sucked and handed him games over the last decade and he has taken them.
Your statement there contradicts your primary argument; we have been less prepared for a 60 minute game than they have. You’re right that his scripted plays are not what has beat us, and it hasn’t been flashy, but Staee’s preparation, gameplanning and adjustments, have clearly been better.
That all changes this Saturday. Go Blue!
October 15th, 2018 at 11:08 PM ^
MD has some incredible knack for causing opposing teams to play down to MSUs level. Its like teams ignore their strengths on offense and play into MSU's strengths on defense. This always results in some shitty low scoring slugfest
MSU's secondary isn't good. For some reason Franklin decided not to attack their secondary in the 1st hald even though his QB is McSorely, one of the best deep ball throwers in college. By the time PSU started trying to go deep they had already fell right into MD's gameplan.
Harbaugh should use the exact offensive game plan against MSU that he did against Wiscy. Have Shea spread the ball around right away and get him going. Start by ploughing Higdon up the middle and eventually rushing him outside. Throw in a couple Shea runs
I think we'll be fine. I expect a 17 or more point win and Im not one of those typical UM fans who always expects some unrealistic blow out of MSU. I really think there is a wide disparity between UM and MSU on both sides of the ball
October 16th, 2018 at 12:15 AM ^
Jesus man, that is the most asinine Michigan-slappy post I've ever read. Come on man, really? Dude has gone 8-2 against us and you still won't give him his due? We had a decent team in 2011, don't blame that loss on "Borges incompetence".
Mork has outcoached Harbaugh in 3 seasons, but we had such a talent gap in 2016 it didn't matter. We should have smoked them 45-10 that year, and he still kept it a fight. I'm sorry but 27-10 at halftime is far from over. Yes, the garbage TD at the end was dumb, so that makes it 30-17.
He is a good coach that squeezes water from a rock. But he somehow gets lemonade out for the Michigan games. This game is gonna be stressful.
October 16th, 2018 at 9:48 AM ^
For as nice as the Wisconsin win was, one thing about that game greatly concerned me - our passing game was putrid. Wisconsin's secondary was absolutely decimated and they had no pash rush. From a throwing standpoint, that was Patterson's worst game of the season. Yes, he was a bit shaky against NW and ND but he looked even more uncomfortable last Saturday and was given ample protection by his line. We are not going to rush for 300 yards against the best rush defense in the country. 200 yards is probably unrealistic. But MSU's defense is vulnerable to an aerial attack. We came out throwing against Wisconsin, which was absolutely the correct coaching decision given their strengths/weaknesses on D. It simply didn't work and that frightens me against MSU.