I'm pretty confident that we'll beat Notre Dame by 21+
So for some reason I've been up since 6:30AM on a Sunday, which is the earliest I've woken up in about 6 months. Because it's a really boring time of year in general, I decided to kill time by doing a bit of research on our first opponent of the year.
Their QB looks shaky as hell, and he might not even be the starter in two weeks. They lost their two best OL to the NFL, and have a very young and inexperienced group. They lost their DC. Their RB went to the NFL, and is being replaced by "RB by committee" of two guys who were both injured most of last year(and one of those guys will likely miss our game for disciplinary reasons).
The only thing that is moderately scary about this game is that it's on the road at night, but with the exception of Hoke's blowout game before getting fired, we always seem to play pretty well at Notre Dame. Personally, I'm thinking a 21+ win is in order here. The type of game where Michigan controls from start to finish, and the game is never really in doubt after Q1.
August 12th, 2018 at 3:45 PM ^
Ask Brady Quinn (sans night game)
August 12th, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^
Well, this lit a storm.
Here's the thing: Michigan doesn't have a tremendous history in road night games because they were so rare prior to the turn of the century. We played the occasional game at Notre Dame or Wisconsin or UCLA, but it was rare.
With night games now much more common, the problem has been... a mediocre program.
There's no magical anti-night field that curses the team when the sun sets. The problem is that road night games are tough, and Michigan just hasn't been that great.
A good example is the '16 Iowa game. Seemed bizarre that we were so rough, right? But this was a Michigan team that struggled against Colorado (remember how tough that was?) and Wisconsin and Michigan State. The road environment certainly made the game tougher, but it didn't turn a 3-TD victory into a loss; it turned, maybe, a tight Wisconsin-type game into a loss.
There's no magic formula to improve road performances. Michigan simply needs to be a better team.
No result better proves this than the 2006 ND game, from back when I thought we could never win at South Bend. I've never been more pleasantly shocked at a result. But it happened because Michigan was a better team.
I don't think we win by 3 TDs... but we might be really good this year.
August 12th, 2018 at 4:16 PM ^
Always a man of reason and logic.
August 12th, 2018 at 4:50 PM ^
Until earlier this year, no 16 seed had ever beaten a 1 seed in the NCAA basketball tournament. I'm in a mood to believe, even in things that haven't happened before. Go blue, boys!
August 12th, 2018 at 10:27 PM ^
Total domination. 1997. M at PSU. 34-8. 3:30 kick (It was Nov and close to dark by the end of the game - think Michigan's old portable lights).
PSU Ranked 2
M Ranked 4
I've never been to a larger ass kicking in my life. We're due for one.
August 13th, 2018 at 8:22 AM ^
Closest I can think of was at ND in 2006. Michigan won 47-21.
August 12th, 2018 at 9:47 AM ^
How are you assessing their QB situation?
August 12th, 2018 at 9:52 AM ^
From a vibrating platform
August 12th, 2018 at 9:54 AM ^
A QB who had less than a 50% completion rate last year who is losing 2 top 10 NFL Draft picks on his OL and a 1400 yd rusher and all of a sudden having to make things happen on his own.
Not exactly a recipe for success, especially with reports of him struggling in Fall practice so far.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:00 AM ^
Good thing that a school like nd recruits really poorly and can never really fill in departing star players. Shhhsh
August 12th, 2018 at 10:02 AM ^
You don't just plug and play Top 10 NFL draft picks on the OL, let alone two of them. The OL that is starting against us has a total of like 65 career starts.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:13 AM ^
Wisconsin never seems to worry about OL players leaving for the NFL, and they don't recruit nearly as well as ND.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:16 AM ^
Wisconsin also plays in the B10 West and only usually needs to beat 1 mediocre team to make the B10 Championship game every year.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^
They also have a ranch where they let recruits and freshman graze for a year or two before they plug them in...
August 12th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^
Wisconsin does not (usually) play opening games on the road against ranked opponents. Nor does it face a Top 5 Defense with a Top 5 DL in its first game either.......
ND recruits, but it still takes time, and the first night game scenario goes both ways.
As Marc Spindler use to say, "This is the type of game where I sent the Limo Driver to the OL's house to make sure they showed up......"
August 12th, 2018 at 10:19 AM ^
IIRC, I think we did a decent job replacing 10 starters on defense a short while ago, amirite???
I would love nothing more than to us administer a 21+ point beatdown on the fighting purple-faced kellys on the road in primetime, but I am not going to assume it is a done deal by any stretch. We always seem to have rusty first games, but hope we break the trend.
August 12th, 2018 at 2:10 PM ^
That has to be way more starts than our OL. Bredeson has about 20, but maybe there are 25 combined from the rest?
August 12th, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^
Also going against what in all likelyhood is a top 10 defense, I dont think ND will score a ton of points. The question is how much better will our offense be this year? I mean our offense was really bad last year, and ND has a good defense, 21 points just might win the game. Ill take 21-17 good guys.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:27 PM ^
Hell, we are starting a new QB; two new OL, and a third OL changing positions (Ruiz). Seems like a wash to me.
;
August 12th, 2018 at 3:06 PM ^
Agreed. OP seems to think ND's unproven replacements and question marks will be hot messes, while UM's similar questions will be answered to levels not seen here in a decade. Optimism and/or homerism at their best.
I think on the road this is a toss up game. First game weirdness and big plays will be the difference.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:52 AM ^
he also lost his top 2 receivers one to the NFL the other dismissed from he team. The two current WR have a ton of upside and are both atleast 6'4 they are giants
August 12th, 2018 at 12:44 PM ^
They also lost their OL coach, to the Bears. That might be a bigger loss for them in the long run. He’s developed some damn good players there.
August 12th, 2018 at 9:50 AM ^
I'm confident UM will win but if you want to give me 21 points I'll take the domers
August 12th, 2018 at 9:53 AM ^
6:30 is the earliest you’ve woken up? Are you 19?
August 12th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^
The only time I get up before 7:30-8 is for early flights, which I only book if there are not other options. I work from home and am self employed.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:27 AM ^
I get up at 5 on weekdays and 7-ish weekends. Yes; my real name is not Brimley, but rather Jed Clampett.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:49 AM ^
Hey, Brimley, did you know that Tom Cruise is five years older in the current Mission Impossible movie than you were in Cocoon? Dude, you should take better care of yourself.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:27 PM ^
Thats not fair Wendy!
Wilford only absorbed some extra-terrestrial energy from a cocoon (in the film).
Tom Cruise gets daily injections of alien DNA straight from L. Ron Hubbards secret vault (in for real REAL life!).
August 12th, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
Now that you mention it, I'm pretty sure I was 19 the last time I slept in until 6:30
August 12th, 2018 at 10:09 AM ^
If my dogs let us sleep past 530, we're lucky! When we had 2, they would sleep whenever. Once we brought home our 3rd, he wakes everyone up by 530.
August 12th, 2018 at 6:00 PM ^
There's a farm upstate for dogs like that....
August 12th, 2018 at 9:56 AM ^
I’ve never been confident in any game we’ve played against Notre Dame. They always seem fluky. Still can’t believe we lost to them in 02, 04 & 05. We had the better team each year IMO. And we’ve had some quirky wins against them too.
Plus, it’s the first game of the season
August 12th, 2018 at 10:01 AM ^
‘05?
Maybe we had the talent, but that team rarely came to play all year. Very mediocre
August 12th, 2018 at 10:43 AM ^
Hart got hurt that game and was in and out of the lineup the rest of the season. And it was just a very frustrating game as we had the chances to win.
August 12th, 2018 at 11:35 AM ^
I'm still pissed they didn't give Avant the TD on that long pass play that was called out at the 1. Then Henne fumbled the snap on the next play. Didn't Henne throw a pick in the end zone also? And then one of the ND TDs bounced out of the hands of Chris Graham and to a ND receiver (Smardjia?). ND took the first series straight down and scored, but after that it was just a lot of frustration.
August 12th, 2018 at 9:57 AM ^
I've been up since 4:45am (thanks, dog), and I think we win by at least 28. It will be 21-0 at the half, courtesy of a touchdown each from all three units.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:01 AM ^
I didn't sleep at all last night....little kids.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:02 AM ^
It seems the earlier someone gets up, the more we'll win by.
August 12th, 2018 at 9:58 AM ^
ND held a scrimmage yesterday and struggled offensively (1's vs. 1's). Tony Jones Jr. appears to be the starting RB. Dexter Williams did not play the first few series and is likely suspended for the first 4 games. Wimbush struggled again with accuracy. On the third series they went backwards 20 yards or so. A couple of OL are banged up, but should return.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:01 AM ^
Did you happen to sell your 23 pairs of sneakers by chance?
August 12th, 2018 at 10:02 AM ^
What does this say about their defense though? Are they a unit where our new OL and new QB may have trouble getting their bearings?
August 12th, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^
Their defense will be top 10 and keep them in the game.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^
Sounds oddly familiar for some reason.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:57 AM ^
MGrowOld is UMBig11
August 12th, 2018 at 11:09 AM ^
Einhorn is Finkle
August 12th, 2018 at 11:40 AM ^
Appreciate the inside info but people keep leaving out part of the assessment which is that Nd is likely to have a very good defense. And we are starting a brand new qb with two brand new tackles on the road at night.
id say there are better odds we don’t score 21 points than win by 21. I am confident we will win the game, but I imagine it’ll be like 20-10
August 12th, 2018 at 10:02 AM ^
Confident that we will win by 21+ seems a bit much. I think we have a great chance to win, but blowouts on the road against good teams aren't easy to come by.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:45 AM ^
I don't think I've ever been confident Michigan would beat any sort of non-Rutgersesque team by more than 21. Whole lotta recent evidence that its just not likely to happen.
August 12th, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
Not to worry, the last time UM played in SB at night we walked away with a victory.
We have the better squad this year, for sure.