I'm pretty confident that we'll beat Notre Dame by 21+

Submitted by aaamichfan on

So for some reason I've been up since 6:30AM on a Sunday, which is the earliest I've woken up in about 6 months. Because it's a really boring time of year in general, I decided to kill time by doing a bit of research on our first opponent of the year.

Their QB looks shaky as hell, and he might not even be the starter in two weeks. They lost their two best OL to the NFL, and have a very young and inexperienced group. They lost their DC. Their RB went to the NFL, and is being replaced by "RB by committee" of two guys who were both injured most of last year(and one of those guys will likely miss our game for disciplinary reasons).

The only thing that is moderately scary about this game is that it's on the road at night, but with the exception of Hoke's blowout game before getting fired, we always seem to play pretty well at Notre Dame. Personally, I'm thinking a 21+ win is in order here. The type of game where Michigan controls from start to finish, and the game is never really in doubt after Q1. 

 

MichiganMan_24_

August 12th, 2018 at 10:05 AM ^

I expect Michigan to win because i expect them to be the better team

HOWEVER, the #1 rule of battle.."NEVER underestimate your opponent..It will only make you look stoopid" - A smart man

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Jimmyisgod

August 12th, 2018 at 10:06 AM ^

ND returns 10 starters off a top 10 defense. Scoring 21 on that defense will be tough, I see a low scoring game, 17-13 or 14-10. 

We haven’t beaten a ranked team on the road since 2006. 

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aaamichfan

August 12th, 2018 at 10:12 AM ^

On paper, 2018 Notre Dame looks to me like 2017 Michigan after Speight was injured. Good defense with an absolutely terrible offense. 

If your offense is simply ok(not terrible), that can be manageable. However, when your offense goes 3 and out every time and forces your good defense to be on the field 80% of the game, it just isn't going to work out.

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Tyler1495

August 12th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^

their defense was ranked in the high 40s last year in yards allowed, mid 30's in points allowed. They have a good defense but not elite. Michigan will play 3-4 teams with better defenses this year 

Oh and they also have a new defensive coordinator that isn't proven 

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Farnn

August 12th, 2018 at 2:20 PM ^

Their defense was 27th according to S&P+ and return 10 players with a first time DC who was last years LB coach.  Michigan was 10th in S&P+, returns 9 guys and has a veteran DC going into his 3rd year.  At his previous stop, in his 3rd year that DC had the #1 defense in the country.  And that was at freaking Boston College.

I understand ND's optimism about their defense, but it takes a lot of projection to think they'll be close to Michigan's.

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amaizenblue402

August 12th, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^

Night game, on the road, against a ranked opponent, first game of the season, at ND, rivalry game. I don’t know how you can say you see us winning by 21+. 

We have questions of our own as well, you know. 

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WolverineHistorian

August 12th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^

I guess it's time for wet blanket to chime in.

In South Bend, I've seen a ND QB leave the ball behind on the 2 yard line and get rewarded a TD against us.  

I've seen a ND QB drop the ball at the 1 yard line (instead of waiting to get in the end zone) against us and get the TD.

I've seen Ty Law get flagged for pass interference on 3rd & goal despite making NO contact when ND desperately needed a score.  

I've seen bizarre tipped passes go against us, horribly timed fumbles and missed kicks that our kickers can usually make in their sleep.  

I've even seen a ref that was so desperate NOT to give Michigan a 1st down on 4th and short that he measured it with an index card.  

Sadly, I've also seen ND teams that were worse than us beat us in that cheap knockoff of the big house.  Of course you can make an argument that was then, this is now.  But I still don't know how any Michigan fan can predict that much of a lopsided win in that stadium.  2006 was a blast but it is nowhere near the norm.  

If we had absolute proof that we're better at every single position, I'd still expect a stressful game.  

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NarsEatForFree

August 12th, 2018 at 10:24 AM ^

Great thought...next time keep it to yourself. Wait until we actually beat a good team before we start thinking of beating ND by 21

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jakerblue

August 12th, 2018 at 10:35 AM ^

Their defense is supposed to be really good. Their offense is probably not going to be good, but it’s unlikely we are going to shit them out. So to win by 21+ that’s means we probably have to score over 30. I don’t think the offense will be clicking quite that well against probably a top 10 D to do that. Unless our D or special teams can get a couple TDS, 21+ seems pretty unlikely 

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umbig11

August 12th, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^

I just did a little digging. Williams will be suspended for the first 4 games according to their beat writer. It is a university imposed suspension. Kelly cannot comment on the situation due to student privacy laws.

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drjaws

August 12th, 2018 at 10:40 AM ^

To be fair to OP, the Fig Things are always preseason top 25 even if they have a shit team.  

 

And, according to Lou Holtz, they always have an outside shot at the National Title even when they’re 5-3

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Perkis-Size Me

August 12th, 2018 at 10:41 AM ^

Interesting facts you’re throwing at us. Here’s another fact:

You remember the last time Michigan won a true road game against a ranked opponent? Lloyd Carr was still our coach....it’s been over 10 years, pal.

There are reasons we can win this game. There are also a shit ton of reasons for why we can lose it too.

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AC1997

August 12th, 2018 at 10:43 AM ^

While I'd bet against a 21 point win, this unpredictability is what makes the UM-ND game special.  Unlike the other rivalry games later in the year, we have no idea what to expect.  

  • There's no preseason to get a read on the teams like the NFL
  • The media has limited access to practice
  • There's a ton of turnover every year in college
  • Both teams usually start with a good ranking....sometimes deserving, sometimes based more on reputation and recruiting rankings
  • Both teams will have a bunch of young players trying to figure things out that early in the season

All of the OPs points about ND are true and could result in a struggle for them.  We can also point to Shea, the coaching changes, experience for the WR and get optimistic.

Or an ND fan can point out that our OL was horrific last year and lost the one good player to the NFL.  And that Hurst is in the NFL.  And that they are at home at night.  

The beauty of the UM-ND game is that anything can happen!  

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charblue.

August 12th, 2018 at 11:36 AM ^

Night games on the road always give the home team a certain emotional edge that offsets inexperience and other factors, if only until the better team demonstrates superiority and control. Turnovers will obviously make a huge difference as they decided the last Michigan-ND contest in South Bend.

And I recall that two Michigan qbs still playing in the league, both lost road openers they started in South Bend. That said, I think Michigan's offense will be most impacted and take longer to get kick started against the Irish. I am specifically concerned about the Oline and quarterback positions. Clearly, those are the two biggest question marks heading into the season. 

And so, while I am optimistic about beating ND, I don't expect this to be a one-sided blowout. There are too many performance issues to get right to predict such an outcome. I expect Michigan to win by at least two scores, and hoping for an even more comfortable margin of victory.

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Baba Booey

August 12th, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^

This thread got me thinking of some of the night game losses we've endured in South Bend. The Reggie f'n Ho game in '88, the 4th quarter collapse in '90, the turnover fest in '12, and of course, the massacre in '14. All sickening losses but I think the game in '12 pissed me off the most. 

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SouthOfHeaven

August 12th, 2018 at 10:50 AM ^

Not a prediction I'd want to make. Anything can happen in these games, but it looks like a defensive slugfest on paper. 

 

We know our defense is going to be dynamite, but forcing some turnovers would be nice. It seems like we seldom get them, regardless of how good the defense is. Why is this? Is it just chance? Teams have a difficult time scoring on our defense, but rarely seem to cough up the ball. We've gotta be about due to snag a bunch of TOs. 

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Giff4484

August 12th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^

I used to think when team A lost x amount of starters they would drop off but that’s not the case in college football anymore. Ohio St loses tons of guys and still wins 10,11, 12 games a year. Bama  and Clemson the same. ND recruits really well. They aren’t on those programs caliber right now but it’s not like they won’t be good.  It will be a dog fight and close and Michigan will have to make a play to win.

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E.L. blue fan

August 12th, 2018 at 11:13 AM ^

I sure hope you are right but I get the feeling we lose this game. 

I am high on Michigan this year overall but this just looks like a low scoring close loss to me. The passing game is not likely to click right away with a new QB and a group of receivers that is still really young. The offensive line won't be good enough for us to just lean on the running game either.  

I think that our best chance of winning this game is that the defense pretty much wins it on it's own, but I am thinking something like a 17-13 loss.

The offense will get a lot better by midseason but I just don't see us lighting up a good defense on the road in game one.  

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aaamichfan

August 12th, 2018 at 11:19 AM ^

Sophomore year is plenty old for a receiver to make a big impact.

Tarik Black literally had 83 yards receiving and a TD in his first game as a true freshman last year.

The only reason DPJ didn't have stats last year is because there was nobody to get him the ball. DPJ had 65 yards receiving in 3 quarters against Wisconsin last year, and that was the only game he has with a competent QB(Peters).

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E.L. blue fan

August 12th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^

This will be Tarik Black's 4th ever college game. 

Peters played against Rutgers, Minnesota, and Maryland and DPJ had a total of 2 catches in those 3 games. 

Edit: tbf DPJ did have 6 catches in the bowl game, I forgot about that because I try to forget that that game happened at all. 

I fully expect both of those guys to be future NFL players and I hope they will be elite as soon as game one, I am just not expecting it. 

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