I'm pretty confident that we'll beat Notre Dame by 21+
So for some reason I've been up since 6:30AM on a Sunday, which is the earliest I've woken up in about 6 months. Because it's a really boring time of year in general, I decided to kill time by doing a bit of research on our first opponent of the year.
Their QB looks shaky as hell, and he might not even be the starter in two weeks. They lost their two best OL to the NFL, and have a very young and inexperienced group. They lost their DC. Their RB went to the NFL, and is being replaced by "RB by committee" of two guys who were both injured most of last year(and one of those guys will likely miss our game for disciplinary reasons).
The only thing that is moderately scary about this game is that it's on the road at night, but with the exception of Hoke's blowout game before getting fired, we always seem to play pretty well at Notre Dame. Personally, I'm thinking a 21+ win is in order here. The type of game where Michigan controls from start to finish, and the game is never really in doubt after Q1.
August 12th, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
I hope OP is right. The defense will be prepared. It all depends on offense. Go Blue!
August 12th, 2018 at 11:24 AM ^
Y'all are discounting Wimbush a little too much. This guy gained over 800 yds last season and scored 14 or 15 TDs. He is a running QB (think Brian Lewerke). Regardless of O-line replacements and an apparent lack of a go-to RB, Michigan's D --- as good as it is --- will have its hands full with Mr. Wimbush.
Assuming Michigan's O-line picks up a stunt or two and gives Shea a chance to deal the ball, M in a close (3-7) point win.
August 12th, 2018 at 11:28 AM ^
Did you read the Hail preview? They have most of a very good Def intact and people are saying this will be a 10 to 13 game, so a 21 point victory may be a little much for a bunch of true sophomores and a transfer QB. That said, I like the optimism.
August 12th, 2018 at 11:38 AM ^
They have very good WRs and a very good defense. Plus, what happens if they put their backup qb in and he’s actually better than Wimbush?
The game seems unpredictable given our oline questions.
August 12th, 2018 at 3:07 PM ^
Back up QB better than the starter? Rare. Hasn't happened at Michigan since...Henson era?
I admit that plenty of ND fans believe that it could be the case at ND this year, however.
August 12th, 2018 at 11:54 AM ^
I though the same thing about their o-line with a hot take as well. But, if you take a closer look they seem pretty competent. They are all highly ranked recruits. All have above average size. And, they aren't projecting to start any first year players. I expect their o-line to be pretty good.
I'd be very surprised if we win by 21. I'd expect a close game that could go either way. Both teams will be motivated. Both teams are quality teams.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:01 PM ^
take away the 2 and keep the 1+ and you are getting closer. They believe their defense is better than ours and at least on par with ours. If that is in fact the case, then we are truly in for a slogfest going back to the 10 year war, 3 yards and a cloud of dust games with OSU. Shea and our offense are the wildcard, no one knows what our O will look like. Lots of hopes and prayers, but until we see it, who knows. I would suggest ND is about the same place with their O, which makes predicting this game, a fools challenge. With that being said I'll go with 17-14 UM, with the wild thing hitting a 33 yarder in walk off fashion. Yep, that seems foolish enough
August 12th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
Their defense is not on par with ours. We will have a top 3 defense, and possibly the best in the country.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:02 PM ^
ND will always have that twelfth player in the form of biased referees. This alone makes me nervous. Right now I believe we'll beat ND by two touchdowns because we have our first excellent QB of the Harbaugh era and the offense will generate points when it should and since when has that happened reliably?
August 12th, 2018 at 12:12 PM ^
I’d call us a slight favorite. Zero chance we win by 21+. That’s just absurd homerism.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:19 PM ^
Just Win Baby.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^
I think Michigan will beat ND like they did last year against Florida solid defense and offense just does enough but will make their mistakes.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
Like Florida last year, I think when we win by 21+ Notre Dame will go into a tailspin and people will be talking about firing Kelly by midseason.
August 12th, 2018 at 12:51 PM ^
21+ seems, um, kinda optimistic for a team ranked in the 100s last year on offense, on the road, at night versus a ranked opponent...
not to mention, no one but the team and coaches have seen this offense...at all...so any predictions aren't based on seeing, but rather hoping.
now, i think Michigan will win, but by 7 was more my thinking
August 12th, 2018 at 1:06 PM ^
This is a much different offense than the one from last year. Just having a good OL will vault this offense into the top 50, which is all this team needs with a D that good.
August 12th, 2018 at 2:03 PM ^
Sure and Patterson is a huge upgrade too.
Fact remains no one on this board has seen actual play... so 21+ is based on nothing but hope and optimism
August 12th, 2018 at 1:04 PM ^
Appreciate the optimism and it could be a big win, but weird things happen in that stadium.
And while we’ve had a few good games there, we also laid eggs in ‘02, ‘04, ‘08, and ‘12 (all of which I attended while skipping ‘06 and ‘10 and I’m going again this year, yikes).
August 12th, 2018 at 6:30 PM ^
Dude, please don't go..
August 12th, 2018 at 1:17 PM ^
Alright take it easy, but i hope you are right. I see us winning but i think it will be a good fight until our d is fresher than their d in the 4th qtr and we win by 7. Both Ds are solid and will keep each team in the game.
But if Shae is half of what people are saying he can do, then it could open up. Just don’t know what he’s gonna look like.
if they are going to win the better get a passing game, and even then you ain’t getting much on Hill and Long. If they want to try and run their qb, well that could end very poorly for them.
Hail
August 12th, 2018 at 1:31 PM ^
This game almost always decided by the better defense and turnovers, especially when the season opener
I think it will be a defensive battle for the first half, with Michigan's offense prevailing in the second half mainly by running the ball behind that 305 lbs per man offensive line.
I don't think it will be a 21 point win. But I can see a 31-20 or 34-24 victory for UM.
Michigan has 18 returning starters - 9 on offense and 9 on defense. Even with losing Hurst on the inside, Michigan will likely be faster and more aggressive at LB than last year. The secondary returns intact.
As you said, Notre Dame lost some important players are WR, RB and OT and OG. They return a good QB in Wimbush, who will definitely be the starter. Wimbush was ND's second leading rushing last year. And Notre Dame will try to run him in this game, and that is simply not going to work. Also, if Wimbush goes down, ND is going to be in a world of hurt offensively
ND will have throw to win this game, but Wimbush doesn't have the same targets as last fall. Claypool and Boykin are very talented returnees at WR however. Mack is another option. Michigan's secondary should be able to neutralize this.
Notre Dame's defense returns 6 starters, but they lost both Martini and Morgan at LB. Tranquil is the best returning LB. However, the Irish do return a solid secondary however, and their DL is very big, fast, deep and experienced. They will test Michigan's patchwork OL.
I don't think Notre Dame will be able to run the ball on Michigan. The only thing that will likely work will be screens and dink-and-dunk stuff, which will probably remind people of 2017 Purdue game.
In my view, the biggest indicator of the outcome for this game will be how the Michigan OL fairs versus the Notre Dame's DL. If Michigan can run the ball on ND effectively, and not turn it over, then it's over IMO. Michigan's passing game should be much improved with Patterson's mobility, the TEs, Collins, and DPJ. So Notre Dame does not have the luxury to put 9 in the box.
I don't see Michigan giving up big plays on this ND team. Next year, ND is going to be very good however.
August 12th, 2018 at 4:45 PM ^
It's 324 lbs if Onwenu starts.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:43 PM ^
Optimistic that Michigan will win. Any road win against a top 10 team is a great win whatever the score. While I hope we play well enough to take the officials out of the game, any win at ND will be just fine for me.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:47 PM ^
I care about winning; whether it's by one point or by one hundred. So long as we walk out with a W, that's good enough for me.
August 12th, 2018 at 1:50 PM ^
We have officially reached "hot take" season. Go Blue!
August 12th, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
Vegas says the game will be close - ND 27.5, Michigan 25.
https://www.oddsshark.com/ncaaf/michigan-notre-dame-odds-september-1-2018-974453
First game of the year. Turnovers, defense and special teams.
Michigan breaks away in the second half. Michigan 31, Notre Dame 20
August 12th, 2018 at 2:40 PM ^
630am? I already knew all of that without doing any research and got to sleep in till 9.
August 12th, 2018 at 3:02 PM ^
C'mon AAA,
Don't you know that you're NEVER allowed to predict positive outcomes for Michigan, especially not when it comes to playing a ranked team on the road?! You should know that past performance IS IN FACT indicative of future returns! I mean, how can you possibly predict a big win BEFORE Michigan actually has already accomplished that BIG WIN?!
Obviously, I am being sarcastic, and am just expressing my dislike the "pump the brakes" mafia that puts a hit out on any optimism.
I'm right there with you, AAA. I think Michigan's offense -- with Patterson at the helm -- is going to blow the doors off ND, and everyone else we face. I think the defensive playbook used to beat previous Michigan teams -- load the box, pin your ears back and blitz and dare them to pass then wait for either a sack, a 3 & out, or and interception -- is not going to work with Patterson's quick, accurate release. I think Michigan is going to do a lot more short passing to the perimeter, getting the ball into the hands of the skill players with elite speed and then this, in turn, is going to open up the power running game, which will then open up the home run ball over the top -- which Patterson is said to throw VERY accurately.
Although I agree that the OL was a source of trouble and frustration last season, I think they looked worse than they were due to the QB's not being willing (able) to make the appropriate pre-snap reads to punish the opposing defense with quick throws, or throw an accurate deep ball when they did have time. It's hard to run into a stacked box, and it's hard to throw into a cover zone. But, if the opposing defense is continually punished for trying to take away either the run or the pass -- which I think we saw happen when Jake was the QB in the second half of 2015 -- Michigan's offense was a thing of beauty that could run roughshod over a defense.
I think the OL is going to be improved, regardless of who the QB is, but with Patterson it's going to look even better. ND might have a good defense, but they're expecting the same old same old Michigan offense, and I am pretty confident it's going to be anything but that. Michigan marches into South Bend and throws down the gauntlet to the CFB world and announces that Michigan is BACK with a VENGENCE!
August 12th, 2018 at 4:11 PM ^
Nobody’s doors are getting blowned off. Shea and the offense likely won’t be on all cylinders game one and Our D certainly won’t give up much.
I fully expect a low score game. First team to 20.
August 12th, 2018 at 5:02 PM ^
Totally agree. It was realllllllly easy to gameplan against our offense last year. Almost zero pass threat with OKorn in the game. And we saw, the offense was significantly better when getting merely decent QB play from Peters
August 12th, 2018 at 3:04 PM ^
Kelly is a prock but is a very good coach. And seeing Haskins beat us, I'll reserve the confidence.
August 12th, 2018 at 3:28 PM ^
What does Haskins have to do with anything?
Michigan beat Michigan, not Haskins.
August 12th, 2018 at 5:04 PM ^
I don't know if I agree on Kelly. He's decent, but no more than above average. Which is usually good enough at ND to stay for decades.
August 12th, 2018 at 7:25 PM ^
Say what you want about Kelly, but at least he’s gotten his team to NCG in the modern era. Far more than we’ve accomplished in the same time frame.
And yes they got blown out by Bama, but at least they made it there.
August 12th, 2018 at 3:38 PM ^
Any predictions right now are pure guesses. We know very little about either team. We have underperformed in night games under Harbaugh. We need to turn that around in 2018 or it will be a long season since we have 4-5 night games this year.
August 12th, 2018 at 5:45 PM ^
L. Villain hurt again?
August 12th, 2018 at 6:24 PM ^
Do you have a source for this?
August 12th, 2018 at 7:11 PM ^
Another message board. Claiming to get the info from a 24/7 "insider". Was wondering if anyone else had heard this.
August 12th, 2018 at 7:50 PM ^
first time I've heard this. It could be true who knows. Im glad the emergence with the emergence of Hutchinson. that will help if he is actually hurt.
August 12th, 2018 at 7:03 PM ^
This is a good thread. The OP is a almost absurd, but if you sift through the 4 pages, there is some good information here AND it is about football, which is good.
I doubt MIchigan wins by 21, but they could if they really stifle ND's O. I could see a 21-0 game or a 28-3 game. That is very realistic considering this defense. It will just depend on how this D handles Wimbush's mobility.
I think this is my first post on the new forum...
August 12th, 2018 at 7:19 PM ^
Michigan 31 - Notre Dame 0
August 12th, 2018 at 7:27 PM ^
Since 1969, we've only had four season openers on the road against a ranked team in their own stadium. All four were against ND, and we're a sparkling 0-3-1 in those. Losses in '88, '90, and '98, and the 17-all tie in '92.
If you include neutral site season openers on the road, you can add the pounding we took from Alabama and the spanking we gave to Florida.
August 12th, 2018 at 7:29 PM ^
Realistically, we’ll be lucky to win period.
It’s the first game of the season, against a top ranked opponent, at night, on the road. And we’ll most likely be starting a brand new QB who’s learning a new offense, with a new playbook, trying to develop timing with our WRs who are young and inexperienced, behind an online that was beyond trash last season and which we’re all hoping and praying has actually improved during this off-season.
Forget winning by 21. Just pray we can win at all.
August 12th, 2018 at 8:27 PM ^
I was pretty confident we were going to do the same to SC. >:(
August 12th, 2018 at 8:44 PM ^
Exactly. At this point, this staff and these players no longer get the automatic benefit of the doubt from me. The bowl game was just depressing.
August 13th, 2018 at 12:13 AM ^
The fan base seems over-confident. This is a tough game to start the season. And we were 8-5 last year, only beating one team with a winning record. Humble yourselves.
August 13th, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^
Actually we're going to win by 38 points. 41 to 3 over the Irish. You heard it here first.
August 13th, 2018 at 10:11 AM ^
I'm not convinced we'll even score 21 points, much less win by a 21+ point margin.
They are returning 9 of 11 starters on what was a solid D last year.
A talented QB can be stymied if the O-line is bad, just ask Hackenberg.
Until I see it on the field, I am not buying the hype.
One caveat - Our D will be elite; scary good.