We don't rebuild, we reload (How much does experience matter?)

Submitted by ATLalumni on

I bring this up because many have been saying this year was our year due to the large number of senior/junior standouts, and that next year may be tougher sledding. 

Alabama and OSU both were 2 of the LEAST experienced teams going into the season, based off number of games played on their roster, under/upperclassmen, etc.  Here we sit at the end of the season with both teams in the CFP.

I don't think OSU or Alabama fans expect more than 1 loss in any season, regardless of their experience.  I may be the minority, but I am of that belief with our team too.  A Harbaugh led team should consistently be a 10 or 11 win team.

Are we to that point yet?

Edit: Here's LINK to Phil Steele experience chart.  OSU was 128th and Bama 116th.

https://www.philsteele.com/Blogs/2016/JUNE16/DBJune28.html

RockinLoud

December 21st, 2016 at 2:22 PM ^

I doubt it. We're going to have way too many first/second year guys playing key positions due to Hoke recruiting failings to be consistent enough to be a contender next season. But soon. Next year will probably the least experienced Harbaugh team we'll ever have.

I Like Burgers

December 21st, 2016 at 2:36 PM ^

Alabama and Ohio State reload with players from top 5 recruiting classes.  Michigan will be reloading from these classes:

2017: #4

2016: #6

2015: #37

2014: #20

They're on the right path, but it will be at least one more year until we're at that level.  Still getting rid of some of that Brady Hoke stink.

pdgoblue25

December 21st, 2016 at 2:29 PM ^

It will take at least another year and maybe 2 to overcome the 2015 transitional recruiting class just from a depth standpoint.

Personally I'm waiting for the 2018 season where a 3rd year starting Rashan Gary is single handedly destroying offensive game plans while Devin Bush is running around like a heat seeking missile.

SpikeFan2016

December 21st, 2016 at 5:19 PM ^

The problem with 2018 is that the schedule is brutal. Likely the hardest schedule we will play in a decade. 

 

Road games at Notre Dame, MSU and OSU (hopefully the former two are still floundering around, but even so, road rivalry games are never easy).

On top of that, we draw both Wisconsin and Nebraska from the West, although we do get both at home. (Penn State also will be coming to Ann Arbor). 

SpikeFan2016

December 21st, 2016 at 5:32 PM ^

Wisconsin is also a frustrating problem. 

 

I'm happy that we are playing them again after such a stupid and needlessly long hiatus (the longest of any two teams in the Big Ten). 

 

Yet, to have to play the clear best program in the West, four years in a row (2016-2019) is a severe handicap.

In that same four year stretch, Penn State only plays Wisconsin once (2018) and Ohio State only plays them twice (2016, 2019). 

 

 

ThadMattasagoblin

December 21st, 2016 at 2:28 PM ^

Not yet. OSU and Alabama have had top 5 classes pretty much every year for awhile while we will just have two in a row. We won't be Sparty and I don't think we will be in the playoff like Ohio State but I think we can win 9-10 games. There should be some gains made on three years of the Harbaugh system.

Indonacious

December 21st, 2016 at 2:40 PM ^

Is saying it could easily be 9-3 that bold? I mean this year, by all accounts, we were a loaded team we went 10-2. I suspect 9-3 will be a prety favorable prediction actually. OSU and PSU were very young this year and return most of their roster. Wisconsin is on road next year. I have no idea how to gauge florida or sparty.

Indonacious

December 21st, 2016 at 2:53 PM ^

I think we are agreeing here. I'm just saying that your tone suggested to me that you were saying look at all our weaknesses...we may even end up 9-3. I guess I felt 9-3 was a pretty reasonable (I feel like most predictions will be between 8-4 and 10-2) take for next year and didn't realize that wasn't in line with what most people aside from the OP think we should expect from next years team.

ThadMattasagoblin

December 21st, 2016 at 2:51 PM ^

Really? There's no way we go under 7-5 unless you think we lose to Maryland, Purdue, Rutgers etc. then Florida and MSU are pretty bad teams. For MSU, they also have to replace a ton of guys off a 3-9 team. I'll admit I don't know much about Florida but everytime I watch them their offense sucks and their defense seems to be trailing off from the Muschamp era.

Indonacious

December 21st, 2016 at 2:58 PM ^

I'm not sure how you are concluding that.

The OOC are fairly similar with a a neutral site florida game instead of @ home vs. colorado. 

Big games in the conference schedule seems pretty similar to me overall in difficulty.

MSU and OSU @ home (opposite to this year)
PSU and Wisconsin away (opposite to this year)

SpikeFan2016

December 21st, 2016 at 5:25 PM ^

2017 is one of our easiest schedules for a long time. 

 

I really don't think Florida is very good, and it's a neutral site game. 

 

We finally get to play Purdue again next year, which is an extra easy game. And we trade a game against Iowa for a game against Minnesota, at home, which is favorable. 

 

We need to capitalize on having both OSU and MSU at the Big House. 

 

The only 3 games I think would be toss up or worse would be @PSU, @Wisconsin and vs. OSU, but we beat the former two pretty comfortably and they will lose key pieces too but bring in less young talent. 

 

We finally need to use our home field to our advantage against the Buckeyes; Penn State did it last year, we can do it next year. 

Tyrone Biggums

December 21st, 2016 at 6:38 PM ^

Agreed, we will be young but we have loads of talent on the roster. If the Harbaugh effect continues (how can you all doubt?) we will be 11-1 regular season. Raback it! The fans self deprecating transference to our beloved team really needs to stop. It will be the 3rd year of steel sharpening steel. Harbaugh has shown that he can do way better than 7-5 or 9-3 with much less talent. 

Believe. Go Blue!

RobM_24

December 21st, 2016 at 2:29 PM ^

I usually tell people that I won't start "judging" Harbaugh until he has his handpicked (JH recruited and groomed) QB running the show. Also, he'll need time to stock the pond with OL prospects bc of the ineptitude of the past regime. I'm guessing year 4 or 5 is where that will happen. Anything good that happens before then is just a bonus -- Harbaugh magic.

evenyoubrutus

December 21st, 2016 at 2:32 PM ^

OSU is not anywhere near as young as we will be next year. They have something like 16-17 guys who are in their 3rd year or older. They have tons of new starters so they seem young. We are not at that point that we can replace tons of graduating seniors with guys who can step in and play right away. I'm not saying we can't be decent next year but I seriously doubt we will be as good as we were this year. We are about to feel the brunt of those back to back classes in '14 and '15 that muffed on getting valuable players.

BlueKoj

December 21st, 2016 at 3:39 PM ^

OSU has in 2-deep:

5th yr: 0

4th: 9 (6 starting)

3rd: 16 (9 starting)

UM has in 2-deep:

4th (5th next yr): 8 (2 starting) Could lose Hill, JOK, Kugler, Dawson. (bonus: could get Clark back for 5th year)

3rd (4th): 9 (3 starting) Peppers gone

2nd (3rd): 3 (0 starting)

It'll be interesting to see what roles guys like Marshall, Ulizio, Wangler, Washington, Ways, Harris, Jones, Johnson, etc. have in the 2-deep. Hopefully, Newsome has a big one as a 3rd year. UM will have more 5th year next year than OH did this year, but 4th and 3rd impact players will be iffy. A lot will change between now and August obviously.

 

 

getsome

December 21st, 2016 at 4:13 PM ^

"We are about to feel the brunt of those back to back classes in '14 and '15 that muffed on getting valuable players."

next years roster should total 60+ scholarship players b/w 2016 & 2017 classes which is pretty wild.  sure, they likely return valuable 2014-2015 recruits next year like cole, mone, speight, bunting, kinnell, wheatley, etc but they did miss on key prospects / positions in those 14 and 15 classes.  and if theres a year when roster imbalance surfaces, its likely 2017.

70-75% of next years scholarship roster may be 1st or 2nd year players - they signed a ton of talent those 2 years, lets just hope enough of those dudes develop, step up to contribute and offset some of the holes.  great news is the staff appears comfortable with QB and thats a huge piece.  even if they cant totally overcome 2014 and 2015 issues next fall, the future looks promising.  theyre not at bama or osu level but im sure thats harbaughs goal (though its far from easy to repeatedly replace nfl draft picks with little to no dropoff)

stephenrjking

December 21st, 2016 at 2:32 PM ^

Our OL alone refutes this idea in 2017. Just too much damage from the Hoke era (and even the RR era, since Hoke was forced to play guys like Kalis early to cover for RR's horrid OL recruiting) to overcome, with a bonus challenge of a starting left tackle rebuilding his knee from scratch. There's a good chance that a true freshman will start, and a true sophomore is expected to be a mainstay. Also competing for jobs are a handful of guys who couldn't sniff the field over last year's "eh" line. This is not a team loaded with juniors and seniors who have developed and waited their turn. The core of next year's team will be Wilton Speight and a posse of freshmen and sophomores. That sounds like a rebuild to me.