El Jeffe

July 10th, 2020 at 1:05 PM ^

This is the better analogy than seat belts, imo. If you don't wear a seat belt and impale your sternum on your steering column, then it mostly just affects you (caveats for publicly-borne costs if you don't have insurance).

And if you want to get hammered and drive off a cliff into a rock quarry, go for it. The problem is the other people you might take out in the process.

Masks aren't for you; they're for other people.

Wendyk5

July 10th, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^

Agreed. And, these restrictions are temporary, unlike laws about seat belts or speed limits, or any other laws perceived to violate individual rights. If Covid miraculously disappeared tomorrow, so would the laws and restrictions. These are extenuating circumstances, not some effort to throttle people's rights. 

Bo Harbaugh

July 10th, 2020 at 11:40 AM ^

Exactly hunt...had the entire country done this 4 months ago, we'd have no question about getting football, sports and bars and restaurants back right now.

Speeding gets a fine, no seatbelts gets a fine, even walking around nude gets a fine (in most public places).  

If we want football, cases need to start going down asap. Ohio needs to do this asap. If current trends in Ohio continue, and OSU cancels football, I'm not sure the B1G will go forward with fall sports.  

J.

July 10th, 2020 at 12:02 PM ^

Really?  California did do this.  How's that working out for them?

There's doesn't appear to be much of a difference between places where masks are required and places where they aren't.  Furthermore, once you account for population density, there's not much difference between places that lean left and places that lean right, and if you listen to the bloviating class, everyone on the left wears a mask all the time voluntarily anyway.

In fact, the US has a much higher (self-reported) mask usage rate than, say, Germany, but a much worse outcome thus far.

It is incredibly clear that wearing your underwear in front of your face is merely virtue signaling and does nothing whatsoever to advance public safety.  What advances public safety is staying home, and that's not a long-term solution.

If anything, mask ordinances are liable to make things worse, because they create a false sense of security.  If you have the choice between (a) staying home, (b) staying outdoors, spread apart, without a mask, and (c) going inside, with a mask, those are not equally dangerous choices, no matter how many times politicians try to "do something."  (a) is safer than (b), which is safer than (c).

blueheron

July 10th, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^

Nope. It looks like a mix of feel-good and science.

Common sense (or something like it) would tell you that redirecting / stopping large or medium droplets would be a good thing.

You might say "Yeah, but what about small, airborne particles?" I'd say, yes, acknowledged. Air is still leaking out of the top, bottom, and sides, so masks won't perfectly protect other people. You, as well, could breathe in small particles from other people. (That doesn't seem to have been in dispute.) None other than Dr. Osterholm (U Minnesota, who became even more famous through Joe Rogan) would probably agree.

Where does that leave us? Why not wear a mask? If it helps a little is it that big of a deal? Yes, maybe, if your tribe feels persecuted.

crom80

July 10th, 2020 at 12:38 PM ^

about your "No science behind it."
 

"Visualizing the effectiveness of face masks in obstructing respiratory jets," Verma et al., June 30 2020, Phys Fluids:  https://aip.scitation.org/doi/pdf/10.1063/5.0016018 …

2/70
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3/70
"Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks" Leffler et al., June 15 2020, medRxiv:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.22.20109231v3 …

4/70
"Identifying airborne transmission as the dominant route for the spread of COVID-19" Zhang et al., June 11 2020, PNAS:   https://www.pnas.org/content/117/26/14857 …

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"A modelling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with ‘lock-down’ in managing the COVID-19 pandemic" Stutt et al., June 10 2020, Proc. R. Soc. A.:  https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspa.2020.0376 …

6/70
META: "Physical distancing, face masks, and eye protection to prevent person-to-person transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis," June 1 2020, Lancet:  https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31142-9/fulltext …

7/70
"Face coverings for the public: Laying straw men to rest" Greenhalgh, May 26 2020, Journal of Evaluation of Clinical Practice:  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/jep.13415 …

8/70
"COVID-19 and the Social Distancing Paradox: dangers and solutions" Marchiori, May 26 2020, arXiv:   https://arxiv.org/pdf/2005.12446.pdf …

9/70
"Cloth Masks May Prevent Transmission of COVID-19: An Evidence-Based, Risk-Based Approach," Clase et al., May 22 2020, An of Int Med.:   https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-2567 …

10/70
"Quantitative Method for Comparative Assessment of Particle Filtration Efficiency of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks for PPE" Mueller et al., May 18 2020, medRxiv:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v4.full.pdf …

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12/70
"The flow physics of COVID-19" Mittal et al., May 1 2020, J. Fluid Mech.:  https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/476E32549012B3620D2452F30F2567F1/S0022112020003304a.pdf/flow_physics_of_covid19.pdf …

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"Aerosol Filtration Efficiency of Common Fabrics Used in Respiratory Cloth Masks" Konda et al., ACS Nano, April 24 2020:   https://pubs.acs.org/doi/10.1021/acsnano.0c03252 …

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"Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 in medical staff members of neurosurgery departments in Hubei province: A multicentre descriptive study," Wang et al., Apr 24 2020, medRxiv:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.20.20064899v1 …

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"A rapid systematic review of the efficacy of face masks and respirators against coronaviruses and other respiratory transmissible..." MacIntyre et al., Apr 21 2020, Int J Nursing Studies:   https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0020748920301139 …..

16/70
"Universal Masking is Urgent in the COVID-19 Pandemic: SEIR and Agent Based Models, Empirical Validation, Policy Recommendations," Kai et al., Apr 21 2020, arXiv:   https://arxiv.org/pdf/2004.13553.pdf …

17/70
"Assessment of Fabric Masks as Alternatives to Standard Surgical Masks in Terms of Particle Filtration Efficiency" Mueller et al., Apr 17 2020, medRxiv:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.20069567v2.full.pdf …

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"Visualizing Speech-Generated Oral Fluid Droplets with Laser Light Scattering," Anfinrud et al., Apr 15 2020, N Engl J Med:  https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2007800 …

19/70
"Transmission of COVID-19 to Health Care Personnel During Exposures to a Hospitalized Patient — Solano County, California, February 2020," Heinzerling et al., Apr 14 2020, CDC MMWR:  https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6915e5.htm?s_cid=mm6915e5_w …

20/70
META: "Face Masks Against COVID-19: An Evidence Review," Howard et al., Apr 12 2020, Preprints:   https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202004.0203/v2 …

21/70
META: "Face masks for the public during the covid-19 crisis," Greenhalgh et al., April 9 2020, BMJ:  https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1435 …

22/70
"The Case for Universal Cloth Mask Adoption and Policies to Increase Supply of Medical Masks for Health Workers" Abaluck et al., April 6 2020, SSRN:  https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3567438 …

23/70
META: Facemasks and similar barriers to prevent respiratory illness such as COVID-19: A rapid systematic review," Brainard et al., April 6 2020, medRxiv:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049528v1.full.pdf …

24/70
"Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses. Part 1 - Face masks, eye protection and person distancing: systematic review and meta-analysis," Jefferson et al., Apr 7 2020, medRxiv:   https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.30.20047217v2.full.pdf …

25/70
"Widespread use of face masks in public may slow the spread of SARS CoV-2: an ecological study," Kenyon, Apr 6 2020, medRxiv:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.31.20048652v1 …

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"Could SARS-CoV-2 be transmitted via speech droplets?," Anfinrud et al., Apr 6 2020, medRxiv:  https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.02.20051177v1.full.pdf …

27/70
"Respiratory virus shedding in exhaled breath and efficacy of face masks" Leung et al., Nat Med, April 3 2020:   https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2 …

28/70
"Potential Utilities of Mask-Wearing and Instant Hand Hygiene for Fighting SARS-CoV-2" Ma et al., J Med Virol., March 31 2020:  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/jmv.25805 …

29/70
"Calibrated Intervention and Containment of the COVID-19 Pandemic," Tian et al., Mar 16 2020, arXiv:  https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2003/2003.07353.pdf …

30/70
META: "Effectiveness of N95 Respirators Versus Surgical Masks Against Influenza: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis," Long et al., Mar 13 2020, J Evid Based Med.:  https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32167245/ 

31/70
"Association between 2019-nCoV transmission and N95 respirator use," Wang et al., Mar 3 2020, J Hosp Infect.:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7134426/?report=classic …

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"Risk of transmission via medical employees and importance of routine infection-prevention policy in a nosocomial outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS)" Ki et al., Oct 30 2019, BMC Pulm Med.:  https://bmcpulmmed.biomedcentral.com/track/pdf/10.1186/s12890-019-0940-5 …

33/70
"N95 Respirators vs Medical Masks for Preventing Influenza Among Health Care Personnel, A Randomized Clinical Trial," Radonovich et al., Sept 3 2019, JAMA:  https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2749214 …

34/70
"Modeling the Effectiveness of Respiratory Protective Devices in Reducing Influenza Outbreak" Yan et al., Sept 19 2018, Risk Analysis:  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/risa.13181 …

35/70
"Risk Factors for Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus Infection among Healthcare Personnel," Alraddadi et al., Nov 2016, Emerg Infect Dis.:  https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/22/11/16-0920_article …

36/70
"Surveillance of the Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) coronavirus (CoV) infection in healthcare workers after contact with confirmed MERS patients" Kim et al., July 27 2016, Clin Microb Infect.:  https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(16)30241-5/fulltext …

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META: "Effectiveness of N95 respirators versus surgical masks in protecting health care workers from acute respiratory infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis" Smith et al. May 17 2016. CMAJ:   https://www.cmaj.ca/content/cmaj/188/8/567.full.pdf …

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"Transmission Among Healthcare Worker Contacts With a Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Patient in a Single Korean Centre," Kim et al., Feb 2016, Clin Microbiol Infect.:  https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfection.com/article/S1198-743X(15)00837-X/fulltext …

39/70
"Pilot Randomised Controlled Trial to Test Effectiveness of Facemasks in Preventing Influenza-like Illness Transmission Among Australian Hajj Pilgrims in 2011," Barasheed et al., 2014, Infect Disord Drug Targets:  https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/25336079/ 

40/70
"Protection by Face Masks against Influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 Virus on Trans-Pacific Passenger Aircraft, 2009," Zhang et al., Sep 2013, Emerg Infect Dis.:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3810906/ …

41/70
"Testing the Efficacy of Homemade Masks: Would They Protect in an Influenza Pandemic?" Davies et al., Aug 2013, Disaster Med Public Health Prep.:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7108646/ …

42/70
"Effectiveness of surgical masks against influenza bioaerosols" Booth et al., May 2013, Journal of Hosp Inf:  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0195670113000698 …

43/70
"Influenza Virus Aerosols in Human Exhaled Breath: Particle Size, Culturability, and Effect of Surgical Masks" Milton et al. Mar 7 2013. PLoS Pathog:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3591312/ …

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"Effectiveness of Selected Surgical Masks in Arresting Vegetative Cells and Endospores When Worn by Simulated Contagious Patients," Green at al., Mar 16 2012, Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol.:  https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22476275/ 

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"The Role of Facemasks and Hand Hygiene in the Prevention of Influenza Transmission in Households: Results From a Cluster Randomised Trial; Berlin, Germany, 2009-2011," Suess et al., Jan 26 2012, BMC Infect Dis.:  https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22280120/ 

46/70
"Facemasks, Hand Hygiene, and Influenza Among Young Adults: A Randomized Intervention Trial," Aiello et al., Jan 25 2012, PLoS One:   https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0029744 …

47/70
"Is Abdominal Obesity Associated With the 2009 Influenza A (H1N1) Pandemic in Korean School-Aged Children?" Kim et al., Dec 8 2011, Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses:  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1750-2659.2011.00318.x …

48/70
META: "Physical interventions to interrupt or reduce the spread of respiratory viruses" Jefferson et al., July 6 2011, Cochrane Database Syst Rev.:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6993921/ …

49/70
"Impact of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on URIs and Influenza in Crowded, Urban Households," Larson et al., Mar 2010, Public Health Rep.:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2821845/ …

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"Mask Use, Hand Hygiene, and Seasonal Influenza-Like Illness Among Young Adults: A Randomized Intervention Trial," Aiello et al., Feb 15 2010, J Infect Dis.:  https://academic.oup.com/jid/article/201/4/491/861190 …

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"Risk factors for SARS infection among hospital healthcare workers in Beijing: a case control study," Tang et al., Oct 7 2009, Trop Med & Int Health:  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2009.02255.x …

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"Facemasks and Hand Hygiene to Prevent Influenza Transmission in Households: A Cluster Randomized Trial," Cowling et al., 6 Oct 2009, Ann Intern Med.:  https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/full/10.7326/0003-4819-151-7-200910060-00142?url_ver=Z39.88-2003&rfr_id=ori:rid:crossref.org&rfr_dat=cr_pub%20%200pubmed …

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"A Quantitative Assessment of the Efficacy of Surgical and N95 Masks to Filter Influenza Virus in Patients With Acute Influenza Infection," Johnson et al., July 15 2009, Clin Infect Dis:  https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19522650/ 

54/70
"Face Mask Use and Control of Respiratory Virus Transmission in Households," MacIntyre et al., Feb 2009, Emerg Infect Dis.:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2662657/ …

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"The First Randomized, Controlled Clinical Trial of Mask Use in Households to Prevent Respiratory Virus Transmission," MacIntyre et al. Dec 1 2008, Int J Infect Dis.:  https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(08)01008-4/fulltext …

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"Risk Factors for SARS Infection Within Hospitals in Hanoi, Vietnam," Nishiyama et al., Sep 2008, Jpn J Infect Dis.:   https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/18806349/ 

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"Professional and Home-Made Face Masks Reduce Exposure to Respiratory Infections among the General Population," v.d.Sande et al., July 9 2008, PLoS One:  https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2440799/ …

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from https://threader.app/thread/1279144399897866248

J.

July 10th, 2020 at 2:10 PM ^

Good Lord, you can't be serious.

1: Irrelevant -- I'm not saying that masks don't keep you from expelling particles, just that that's not a meaningful method of transmission
2: Insane.  They really want me to believe that a mask policy takes effect immediately?  The only way that would be possible is if the transmission were already slowing.  In effect, this proves the opposite of what they're claiming.
3: GIGO.  Taking health statistics from Mongolia or Laos at face value shows that the authors have no idea what they're doing.  And they skip over the most notable result -- if masks are so useful, how did the virus escape China in the first place? Oh.
4: More GIGO.  Trying to extrapolate anything from NYC during the earliest days of the pandemic based upon their published, confirmed case counts is silly.  We're quite certain that the disease was much more prevalent than officially reported, but due to a lack of testing, nobody knows how much.

I don't have time to keep going, but congratulations: you've successfully proven that scientists can produce bad research.  Societal use of masks correlates very, very well with other hygiene procedures that really might make a difference.  It's not the masks themselves -- and to whatever extent masks help, these studies are talking about real masks, not cut-up underwear.  And those are still best reserved for doctors / hospitals.  Who aren't getting sick at all, because everybody wears masks there (sadly, I wish that were true).

If COVID was easily transmissible by aerosols, the case numbers wouldn't be anywhere near as low as they are.  They're orders of magnitudes too low.  Measles has an R0 of about 18.  The chicken pox is about 10.  Those are the numbers I'd expect from a disease that readily spreads via aerosol.  There is no way that we had months of uncontrolled spread of a disease that virulent and are ending up with R0 around 2.  It's just not feasible.

If COVID spread this way, you'd have had planes full of people with the disease, infecting others in their communities, back in December and January.  If the first exposure was December 1, and we assume an average life cycle of two weeks, and you use the chicken pox R0, there would have been one million cases worldwide by March 1 and ten million by March 15; the entire world population would have been on track to be infected by May 1.  If you use the measles R0, you'd have 34 million cases by March 1, 600 million by March 15, and the entire world would have been infected by April 1.  It's just not possible.

I'm not saying it can't ever possibly happen.  I'm not saying that no anecdotal case of aerosolized transmission could possibly exist.  But it's absolutely ridiculous to focus on it as the primary mechanism when the numbers simply don't back it up.

blueheron

July 10th, 2020 at 2:39 PM ^

Fine. How is it being transmitted? (Clue: If you say "surfaces" you're going to sound ignorant.)

Do yourself a favor and search on "COVID call center," "COVID choir Washington," and "COVID Chinese restaurant."

It's not necessarily easily transmitted through the air (like measles), but that does seem to be the primary route at this point.

What's your argument?

pescadero

July 10th, 2020 at 3:30 PM ^

" If COVID was easily transmissible by aerosols, the case numbers wouldn't be anywhere near as low as they are.  They're orders of magnitudes too low.  Measles has an R0 of about 18.  The chicken pox is about 10. "

Measles has about the highest R0 of any disease we know at ~18.

Any disease that is orders of magnitude lower wouldn't even transmit. The R0 would be 0.18 or less...

 

Now - measles and chickenpox are both definitely AIRBORNE, not just aerosol transmitted.

 

Influenza, and meningitis are aerosol spread illnesses.

Influenza R0? 0.9 to 2.1

Meningitis R0? Less than 2

 

 

J.

July 10th, 2020 at 5:52 PM ^

I meant to say orders of magnitude fewer cases, since the whole problem is that R is exponential.  R=2 is orders of magnitude fewer cases than R=10, in the same amount of time.  If I phrased it poorly, I apologize.

Meningitis?  That's a condition, not a disease -- that's like saying that pneumonia is aerosol spread.  I don't know if you mean bacterial or viral meningitis.  I suppose it's possible that viral meningitis is spread via aerosol -- heck, I suspect you could get it from the measles virus, for example.  I highly doubt any bacteria are spread via aerosols.

I feel like you've got your definitions backwards here.  If influenza were aerosolized -- i.e., spread by talking / breathing, and hanging in the air for minutes -- then the last few flu breakouts would have been far worse.  It's airborne, yes -- spread by coughs and sneezing.  But I don't think it's aerosolized, whereas measles and chicken pox are.  And that's the primary reason for the difference in the R0 values.

I suspect that's the primary -- not only -- method of transmission of COVID too.

If you're coughing, stay home, or wear a mask if you absolutely must go out.
If you're around someone at high risk, especially with a compromised immune system, wear a mask -- this is why surgeons wear masks.

If you have no symptoms, and you're not planning a 2 hour choir practice with bad ventilation, what problem do you think the mask is going to solve?

The idea that this virus is spread by breathing makes no sense.  We would have been overwhelmed months ago.

the fume

July 10th, 2020 at 3:16 PM ^

lol there's a shit-ton of science and basic knowledge behind it. air doesn't spread 6+ feet when you're wearing a mask.

if you don't believe that, put your shirt over your mouth and try to breathe on your hand. Now do it without.

yeah, the virus will go through the mask, but it won't have propulsion to travel.

BoFan

July 10th, 2020 at 12:37 PM ^

California did do a lot of things and for a while it was going well. The recent problem is all in Southern California where people didn’t comply. Also, decisions are controlled at the county level.  I live in Northern Cal where mask use is fairly compliant and cases are still low.  
 

Finally, the governor said they are not going to enforce masks. The only thing we didnt do here is fine people or enforce mask use.  So in fact you just argued in favor of your new fine. 

Broken Brilliance

July 10th, 2020 at 12:25 PM ^

As a school teacher, I can't believe how many of my colleagues are advocating for staying home to start the school year even with the stringent CDC guidelines. Says something about faith in mandatory mask mandates. I will be there in fall if big gretch cares enough to let us get to real work.

Broken Brilliance

July 10th, 2020 at 1:12 PM ^

I think the guidelines are questionable given the notion that kids don't die from this and most of them don't share a household with at-risk age groups. If a kid has a sick parent or guardian they should have the option of going online.

Even if I'm at risk, I'll give my kid the chance at a decent education even if I'm "short of breath" for a few months.

Special Agent Utah

July 10th, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^

And you’re bitching about following a rule that almost every medical professional and infectious disease expert says is the surest way to limit the spread of the pandemic because you’re “not sure” about the research. 
 

So I guess there’s a lot of rule breaking going on here today.  

yossarians tree

July 10th, 2020 at 12:27 PM ^

Will they still be paid? Because if teachers can get paid and stay home the schools could be closed for years if there is no vaccine. I pay a lot of taxes in the school district where I live. I can understand teachers not wanting to go back to work, but I don't want to continue to pay them to do so. This is only fair. In a few weeks when my unemployment insurance runs out, I will have to find another job if I'm not brought back. 

Broken Brilliance

July 10th, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^

I work in a decently well off detroit suburb and not only did our union prevent pay cuts and freezes this year, but I'm also getting my masters this fall. I will make at least 10k more this year and it looks like big gretch will allow me to do that posting on Google classroom once or twice a week. I don't agree with it. Ethically speaking, I'd rather take unemployment or sling drinks at a 50% full bar to earn the money.