Potential Nightmare Scenarios in CFP aka Root for Oklahoma Tonight

Submitted by alum96 on

There is a not insignificant chance that this playoff seeding could fall into a nightmare scenario in regards to our rivals.  i.e. scenarios where 2...if not all 3 could get in.

MSU is peaking and getting healthy - based on how they dominated OSU's OL and DL and watching 3-4 Iowa games this year I don't feel good about that matchup at all for Iowa.  Iowa looks like UM with a better running game but not as good of a DL.  I know - there will be 100s of posts this week saying Iowa has a great chance just like PSU had a great chance today but I bet the line is 7 to 8 for MSU.

Assume MSU wins; they go into the playoff.  Nightmare scenario step A.

Baylor already lost. Step B of nightmare.

Nightmare 1:

Oklahoma loses tonight.  Notre Dame loses.

Then you are left with two 1 loss teams and 2 loss Stanford (if they dont screw up the P12 championship game). 

  • #11, 11-1 Oklahoma State who would have just beaten the #3 seed at home. I am assuming that will be a close game, so say close win for OK State.  Only loss to 2 loss Baylor.
  • #8, 11-1 OSU who just demolished #10 seed on the road.  They get style points, sex appeal, $$$$, and defending national champion.  Whose only loss was to a playoff team (MSU) on a wacky night with the monsoon rain.  Yes they lack signature wins but its frigging OSU.
  • #9 10-2 Stanford (who still has to play a P12 championship game)

This has danger of Buckeyes getting in all over it, even if OK State is a "conference champion".   I don't see 2 loss Stanford who lost to NW getting in over 1 loss OSU ...even as a conf champion.

So we need Oklahoma to win tonight to elimiate that possibility (as well as Bama/Clemson of course) to create: Clemson, Bama, MSU/Iowa, Oklahoma.

Nightmare 2:

Fig Things beats Stanford.  Oklahoma State wins.

Then you have three 1 loss teams up for debate:

  • #6 Fig Things with a win over #9 on the road.  Whose only loss was on the road to a playoff team (seeded most likely #1)
  • #8 Bucknuts with a win over #10 on the road.  Whose only loss was at home in wakcy weather to a playoff team (seeded #3/#4)
  • #11 Oklahoma State with a win over #3 at home.  Whose only loss was to Baylor. (not a playoff team)

It's a free for all at that point - but you know the $$$ will favor ND or OSU (YTOSU) vs the other OSU.

HELL ON EARTH Scenario:

Fig Things beats Stanford.  Oklahoma State wins.  Bama loses.

SEC gets shut out.  Playoff is Clemson, MSU/Iowa, Notre Dame, and .... one of the OSUs. And you know which one brings the $$$

======================

Root for Oklahoma big time here to freeze out OSU or Notre Dame. 

Question your decision on who to root for btw Stanford v ND.  Because maybe we need Notre Dame to win to freeze out Ohio State from slot #4 (ugh!!!!!)  Ok State could get that 4th slot but no sure thing over Ohio State.

Root for Bama (ugh).

(I assume ACC is getting a team if NC beats Clemson so I am not that concerned with that outcome.)

Stringer Bell

November 28th, 2015 at 7:46 PM ^

There are 5 conference champs plus Notre Dame.  I highly doubt OSU gets in considering they aren't even playing in the conference championship game.  They looked unstoppable today but the committee has an entire season to evaluate.

Muttley

November 28th, 2015 at 9:18 PM ^

(when ND is in the conversation), so the committee HAS to leave out two of the conference champion/ND representatives.  Leaving out an extra conference, however, would piss off a whole another league in a very optional move.

The Selection Committee Protocol gives the following guidance:

Proposed Selection Process:

Establish a committee that will be instructed to place an emphasis on winning conference championships, strength of schedule and head-to-head competition when comparing teams with similar records and pedigree (treat final determination like a tie-breaker; apply specific guidelines).

The criteria to be provided to the selection committee must be aligned with the ideals of the commissioners, presidents, athletic directors and coaches to honor regular season success while at the same time providing enough flexibility and discretion to select a non-champion or independent under circumstances where that particular non-champion or independent is unequivocally one of the four best teams in the country.

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

  • Championships won
  • Strength of schedule
  • Head-to-head competition (if it occurred)
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

We believe that a committee of experts properly instructed (based on beliefs that the regular season is unique and must be preserved; and that championships won on the field and strength of schedule are important values that must be incorporated into the selection process) has very strong support throughout the college football community.

Under the current construct, polls (although well-intended) have not expressed these values; particularly at the margins where teams that have won head-to-head competition and championships are sometimes ranked behind non-champions and teams that have lost in head-to-head competition. Nuanced mathematical formulas ignore some teams who “deserve” to be selected.

http://www.collegefootballplayoff.com/selection-committee-protocol

Ironically, a review of Ohio State's path to the title last year should remind the committee of how unreliable the consensus/"eye test" can be in evaluating the relative strengths of teams and leagues.  Recall that Ohio State won the title from the B1G as a 10 point dog against Alabama and as a 7 point dog against Oregon.  Additionally, the top 3 teams from the "weakling" B1G all won their bowls while the top 5 teams from the NFL-light SEC West all lost their bowls. 

Now in a scenario in which Notre Dame lost, Ole Miss had won the SEC w/ three losses, and USC the PAC12 with four losses, then that flexibility would have likely come into play.  I think you could say unequivocally that Ole Miss and USC are NOT Top 4 teams, and having lost its last game, two-loss Notre Dame would get the same non-champion treatment as one-loss Ohio State.

But should OkSt win the B12 tonight, the committee cannot disparage the non-fluke, one-loss B12 champion that has beaten TCU and Oklahoma.  Especially after the B12 was left out last year.

Tater

November 28th, 2015 at 9:52 PM ^

9-3 was a decent season for Harbaugh's first.  Remember, nobody is as competitive as Harbaugh.  That means today's loss pisses him off much more than any of us, no matter what he might say to the media.

This team was a Sparty Fluke away from having two losses and being in second place in the division.  When people were predicting 7-5 before the start of the season, 9-3 would have looked really good.

The bright side: OSU's obsession with Michigan cost them a chance at being in the playoff two years in a row.  Meanwhile, Sparty could still lose to Iowa next week.  If Sparty and OSU have their hopes ruined, it won't be as bad as if Sparty makes the playoff.

blahblahblahh

November 28th, 2015 at 10:26 PM ^

With the way we have played against our rivals lately I don't really give a shit about our season record. I can't be the only one. From now on no season is a success unless we get a win against OSU, MSU, or both. 2-10 with wins against MSU and OSU is better in my eyes than 10-2 with losses to both.

The sad reality is we have lost 11 of the last 12 to OSU and 7 of the last 8 to MSU. Something has got to change quick.

LSAClassOf2000

November 28th, 2015 at 8:39 PM ^

I will say that I did find it amusing that he almost genuinely seemed stunned in the postgame interviews yesterday, almost like he was trying to comprhend a 12-0 Iowa himself. He may very well have been on some level - it has been nearly a century since they've had a perfect regular season, if I remember correctly. 

Now, I actually do need to talk to my kids about an undefeated Iowa. I had been putting that off sadly. 

bklein09

November 28th, 2015 at 7:53 PM ^

Oklahoma state will get in over OSU if they win tonight and are conference champs. No way the committee screws over the Big 12 for OSU two years in a row, especially when OSU didn't even make the conference title game.




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

marti221

November 28th, 2015 at 8:00 PM ^

We're out. No chance I'm rooting for MSU/OSU/ND to win after today. Should be a VERY good team next year. A team without (hopefully) these glaring wholes, ie. LB/OL/RB.




Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

CLord

November 28th, 2015 at 8:15 PM ^

The glaring hole today was on the DL man.  LB too, but mostly DL.  Not much we can do when our best two noses are out.  Wouldn't have won the game for us, but bottom line we need a facelift across the board in terms of talent.  QB, RB, LB, WR especially.  Gotta give JH some time.

DixieWreck

November 28th, 2015 at 8:01 PM ^

left ...

seriously though, I think about this shit as well, the OSU part, don't need that scenario ever, as far as MSU, I'll take my chances with them playing "Bama.
Roll Tide

Michology 101

November 28th, 2015 at 8:17 PM ^

You're assuming that the committee would possibly take OSU over OK State simply because OSU beat us. Though the OK Sooners are ranked much higher than us. Therefore OK State would actually get more credit for beating them. OK State would then also be a conference champion. Why would the committee look at OSU's win or resume as being better than OK State's? I think whoever wins between the Sooners and OK State will be in the playoffs over OSU. Notre Dame is the main team that could possibly keep OK State out.

1329 S. University

November 28th, 2015 at 8:18 PM ^

You gotta win your conference. Sorry Ohio State you didn't win it.



I know this "rule" was with the BCS but I don't see Ohio State getting in over the champions of the major conferences plus ND.

RakeFight

November 28th, 2015 at 8:24 PM ^

The way I look at it...

OSU doesn't deserve it.

MSU doesn't deserve it. If they make it, it will just continue the delusion that they are a real team.

ND doesn't deserve it. 

Any questions?

RJWolvie

November 28th, 2015 at 8:25 PM ^

MSU is in. And, on any given Saturday... Besides, Clemson is a fraud, Alabama ain't their usual selves, and there are no dominant teams among any of teams with a shot.

Wolvie3758

November 28th, 2015 at 8:35 PM ^

taking TWO Big teams no matter what...OSU is toast..they are BLOCKED OUT by the play in game btw MSU and Iowa...then  other conference champions....no need to worry OSU path was sealed when MSU won

 

and might I just add....may it haunt them for the rest of their days on earth

vulture

November 28th, 2015 at 8:34 PM ^

Wouldn't that be the best case scenario?  Makes the B1G appear strong.  Further erodes myth of SEC dominance.  Neither Sparty nor Ohio get to brag.  And considering that many recruits want to play in-state for a champion team, IA vs. OK doesn't create any objections for Harbaugh to deal with when he recruits CA, FL, TX, SEC country, and B1G country.  

BlueMarrow

November 28th, 2015 at 8:42 PM ^

I'd like to see the Big Ten do as well as possible. That results in maximum dollars coming back into the Michigan coffers. 

I'd love to see 2 teams make it, even rivals. Just show me the money. I can deal with the ego issues, while the athletic department continues to build state of the art facilities.

Busines is business.