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Alas poor Yorick! I knew him…

Alas poor Yorick! I knew him, Horatio

The Cheese stands alone.

The Cheese stands alone.

Ohio must be destroyed.

Ohio must be destroyed.

This is revelatory and life…

This is revelatory and life-changing.  

Readers added context they…

Readers added context they thought people might want to know.

 

1973 Michigan

 

Is this note helpful?

The muttering you hear is…

The muttering you hear is about Michigan's 1973 team.

RE:  "Texas win means no OSU…

RE:  "Texas win means no OSU and it's the first step toward no SEC.  Which would be glorious."  

Best case scenario for me is Michigan winning it all and beating the SEC's best team in the CFP.  

I don't want it to be debatable like 1997.

Whoever smelt it dealt it.  

Whoever smelt it dealt it.  

I've been blind to the fact…

The world needs peacemakers.  

 

 

I watched Harlon Barnett's…

I watched Harlon Barnett's press conference and am left with the impression that he is a good person.  https://youtu.be/CTkr_krUU7o?si=adi-_27thvLIrWod

How could it be the longest…

How could it be the longest in history when Michigan's history includes "point a minute" teams?

Never mind.  Someone already addressed this.

If he wanted to come back to…

If he wanted to come back to M, would M take him back?

It would be a shame if the…

It would be a shame if the Hurricanes' poor decision vs. GT made everyone forget about the poor decisions the Domers made at the end of the Ohio game.  

NIL idea. Picture in Picture…

NIL idea. Picture in Picture with one feed of the game and a subscription-only PIP feed of a specific player. Camera stays on player whole game, even if he is on the sideline.

 

Gamecocks are getting…

Gamecocks are getting furminated live on the SEC Network.

AMEX Platinum cardholders…

AMEX Platinum cardholders can recoup the cost of the Peacock streaming subscription with the card's $240/yr streaming credit. 

Also, your kid can get a Student Peacock sub for less than $2/mo and you can login with those credentials.  For students,Peacock is so cheap there's no point even cancelling it.

Or you could invite your friend over and watch the game using your friend's login credentials at your house which costs you nothing.

If you don't want to mooch you can raise money by turning in 20 aluminum cans at the recycling center. 

 

"The counterspeech doctrine…

"The counterspeech doctrine posits that the proper response to negative speech is to counter it with positive expression. It derives from the theory that audiences, or recipients of the expression, can weigh for themselves the values of competing ideas and, hopefully, follow the better approach."  (https://mtsu.edu/first-amendment/article/940/counterspeech-doctrine)

 

Clemson lost to Duke…

Had they won the turnover battle Clemson would also have won the game.

The only way Clemson's season nosedives is if they continue to lose the turnover margin which is statistically unlikely.  

Compared to every opponent they will face, Clemson has more talent, better coaches, better facilities, better culture, and better depth.  The coaches will get them believing in themselves again and they will probably win out.

 

 

Dest is best.

Dest is best.

People are so used to seeing…

People are so used to seeing Reyna loafing and pouting that they want to make him MOTM when he just does his job.  

This discussion only made me…

This discussion only made me more curious about the success rate for talent identification systems.  It was a chore but I found some data points I am happy to share.

 

31.1%  of University of Michigan scholarship football players made it to the NFL as players in the 85 scholarship era. 

 

29.2% of the 2017 Offer Board made it to the NFL already, possibly with more to come.   

 

Conclusion based on flimsy evidence:  Harbaugh-era coaches seem to be better than average when it comes to identifying talent.

 

Caveat: I don't know how to account for going pro early, going pro in a league other than the NFL, and going pro as a coach instead of as a player.  And obviously I only looked at one year, so sample size...

 

______________________________

 

In the 85 scholarship era (including 1995, 2022, and all years in between), a total of 1,119 players were on the University of Michigan football team.  That works out to 40 players in each class, 21.25 of whom were on scholarship.  (1119/28=40) and (85/4=21.25). Source:  https://bentley.umich.edu/athdept/rosters/search.php?data=football&lastname_option=equals&lastname=&firstname_option=equals&firstname=&number_option=equals&number=&year_option=between&year=&startyear=1995&endyear=2022&letter_option=equals&letter=&position_option=equals&position=&class=any&hometown_option=equals&hometown=&state=&highschool_option=equals&highschool=&sortby=lastname%2C+firstname%2C+year&find=FIND

 

Including 1995, 2022, and all years in between, a total of 186 unique University of Michigan players were associated with NFL football teams.  That works out to 6.6 NFL players per class.  (186/28=6.6) 

Source:  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/schools/michigan/

 

Therefore 31.1% of University of Michigan scholarship football players made an NFL team during the 85 scholarship era.  Math:  (6.6 NFL players divided by 21.25 scholarship players = 31.1%)

 

Of the talent the Michigan coaches identify (offer), what percentage go on to play for a paycheck?  How good are the coaches at identifying talent?

 

According to Touch The Banner, Michigan extended offers to 106 players in 2017.

 

As of today, 29.2% of the players Michigan offered in 2017 are associated with an NFL team.  (31/106=29.2%)  40/106 are not in the SRCFB and 35/106 are in the SRCFB associated with a college team, not an NFL team.

https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/p/2017-offer-board.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/#site_menu_link

 

At the 1978 Emsley A. Laney…

At the 1978 Emsley A. Laney High School varsity basketball tryouts Coach Clifton "Pop" Herring had a talent identification system in place that resulted in him cutting Michael Jordan and taking 15 other kids instead.  

Sports psychologists, coaches, players, and especially parents tell this story like it only has one lesson, that being "Be like Mike."

I see it from Herring's perspective and think "that guy needs a new talent identification system."  

 

 

I am a middle school soccer…

I am a middle school soccer coach.  We have tryouts and I have to evaluate talent and make cuts.  Every year kids show up to school tryouts wearing club jerseys.  I think they do this because they want me to make inferences about them based on the club team they made.  That would be like UMich football only giving offers to kids who Rivals previously rated as 4 or 5 stars.  I don't pay attention to club jerseys and instead evaluate based on my own system.

 

A few years ago I took someone as an eighth grader (Julie) who I cut as a seventh grader.  As an eighth grader, Julie ended up being an important starter.  My assumption:  if she was good enough to start as an eighth grader then she must have been good enough to at least make the team as a seventh grader.   Therefore I assume I failed to properly evaluate her as a seventh grader.  Therefore there must be a problem with my talent evaluation system.  It makes me sick to think about and it is something I never want to experience again.

 

Years have passed and now many of my former MS players are on the HS varsity.  Two days ago I wanted to watch one of their games online.  I had to get their jersey numbers off MaxPreps and while I was there I saw this article:  "2022 NFL Draft: State-by-state look at where draftees played high school football."     

(https://www.maxpreps.com/m/news/kSVmutjJi02CQsrCw9V3AQ/2022-nfl-draft-state-by-state-look-at-where-draftees-played-high-school-football.htm) 

 

According to the article, in 2022 five players were drafted into the NFL who played HSFB in MI:

Aidan Hutchinson, Divine Child (Dearborn)
Samuel Womack, East English Village Prep (Detroit)
Bernhard Raimann, Kellogg (Delton)
Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, King (Detroit)
Eyioma Uwazurike, Southfield-Lathrup (Lathrup Village)

 

I looked at each player's offer sheet on Rivals and noticed that only one of the five got a UMich offer (Hutchinson).  

 

My assumption:  UMich could have taken Womack, Raimann, Gardner, Uwazurike but they took these guys instead:  https://michigan.rivals.com/commitments/football/2018

 

This got me thinking about my own failure to identify Julie's talent.  It seemed worse to me though because I only missed one Julie whereas the UMich talent evaluators SEEMINGLY missed 4/5 of the in-state Julies and who knows how many out-of-state Julies.  

 

I posted my now-deleted findings (along with the sources) to MGOBlog because I am a neophyte seeking knowledge.  I thought the community might have an explanation for the hits and misses in the 2018 recruiting class.  I was hoping to learn something from the Michigan case study that I could apply to my own talent evaluation process so I would never miss another Julie again.  

 

Seth, AZBlue, and especially Magnus helped me realize that my conclusions were based on faulty underlying assumptions, and moreover, the UMich talent evaluation system probably did not fail.   I encourage anyone who is interested to study their replies.  This work by Magnus is particularly good:  https://touch-the-banner.com/the-fence-the-mitten-project-mitten-complete

 

In the 2022 NFL draft, five…

In the 2022 NFL draft, five guys who played HSFB in MI got drafted.  Only one of the five got an M offer (legacy Hutchinson).  The other four were lower rated guys who played elsewhere. 

 

The highly paid, highly experienced UMich scouts missed on 80% of the future NFL draftees in their own state, most of whom played within an hour of A2.

 

What's worse is the distance the M recruiters traveled to evaluate, offer, and onboard out of state alternatives who for the most part were busts. 

 

I am the OP.  I just wanted to know how professional talent evaluators could have such a high failure rate.  

 

Does the M recruiting department use star ratings as an initial filter?  That would explain why they did not offer the four lower star guys who played elsewhere and then got drafted.  That would be too lazy though and I doubt it's true because of elder Bell, Haskins, etc...

 

If on the other hand they ignore star ratings and use their own formula then I asserted the M formula needs work.  Not in so many words, but I basically said it shouldn't be that difficult for professional scouts to determine who has an NFL future when you give the scout the measurables, transcripts, tape, interviews with the player/parents/coaches, and the eyeball.  They have been doing this for decades and they get paid handsomely for doing so.

 

 I overlooked something important, though.

 

An explanation offered before the thread was deleted is that M was aware of all the future pros, offered the guys who could make it through Admissions, and ignored the others.  That's pretty charitable and it could also be true.  

 

Other explanations:  the future is impossible to predict; some people are late bloomers; some people are early peakers.  

 

Those are all valid but I am not fully satisfied. 2% of HSFB players get some form of athletic scholarship in college and 1.6% of CFB players make it to the NFL.  To the trained eye, HSFB players with NFL futures should stand out like 32 quarters in a pile of 10,000 pennies.  Especially when they are right in front of your face.

 

Rivals gives stars to a lot…

An NFL contract is a better proxy for talent than a star rating.  

 

Anti-semantic remarks and…

Anti-semantic remarks and Obi transfer portal -- two things I wasn't expecting to see on MGOBLOG today 

After several games of…

After several games of Michigan coaches calling Rock, Rock, and more Rock, I asked the board if Paper and Scissors are in the playbook but are being saved for OSU.  

I am writing this in the afterglow of Michigan's 45-23 thrashing of OSU wherein the surprised Bucks were treated to spectacularly effective plays herefofore unseen.  Were these "Scissors and Paper" plays installed this week or were they in the playbook the whole time?  Perhaps a little of both.  Sam quoted a Michigan player who said they used a play against the Bucks that had been collecting dust for over a year.  

I'm not going to name and shame all the people who got it wrong but I am going to praise Blue Dispatch for getting it right, for making the point clearly and concisely, and for being polite.  

Here is the answer Blue Dispatch gave:  "I think it's more involved than Rock, Paper, Scissors. The offense grows during the season and the more capable they become, more is asked of them. That especially applies to a new quarterback. I think our offense is still growing. Offensive game plans are drawn up each week to exploit defensive weaknesses and develop the things we do well. I have no doubt Michigan saves certain looks for Ohio but the game plan each week is game specific."

 

 

 

 

 

Bell would have fewer drops…

Bell would have fewer drops if JJ punted passes to him.

Are you saying you would…

Are you saying you would rather watch our receivers drop passes from Rattler/Hooker?

Go! Go! GAMECOCKS!  That…

Go! Go! GAMECOCKS!  That being said, South Carolina completes long passes and South Carolina prevents TN from completing long passes.  Michigan can't do either as well as SC does.

When it comes to avoiding…

When it comes to avoiding injuries, ST is the best T.  

I reckon about 25 bad…

I reckon about 25 bad dropped passes is the difference between Harbaugh being the undisputed greatest coach in football, this Michigan team being the most dominant in school history, and JJ having a Heisman year.  

We need a WR coach who will…

We need a WR coach who will tell the receivers what to do when the ball hits them.  Current coaches obviously aren't doing that 

The fix is on.  

The fix is on.  

JJ needs to start drop…

JJ needs to start drop kicking it to his receivers.

Disgraceful turnout by…

Disgraceful turnout by Michigan students.

I wish we had Junior…

I wish we had Junior Hemingway from Conway, South Carolina.  He could stretch the field, he could win jump balls, and he was as sure handed as they get.

The shadows are quite long…

The shadows are quite long for noon o'clock.

Everyone in South Carolina…

Everyone in South Carolina is rooting for Capers Junior.  At least everyone in my house is.

The white uniforms are…

The white uniforms are hideous, especially paired with yellow socks.  The snowflake part is that the coaches made a uniform decision for an earlier game that was bordering on perfection.  Here's what they need to do to put it over the top.

The only maize should be the block M made by pressing interlocking the gloves, the helmet wings, and the jersey numbers.  Everything else (helmet grills, mouth guards, chin straps, tape, socks, shoe uppers, shoe soles -- it should all be midnight blue).

For the helmet, use flat paint.

 

More paper, less rock.

More paper, less rock.

Harbaugh said when asked…

Harbaugh said when asked about how the offense could improve during the bye week:  “Some really good play-action for some of our really good run scheme and complementary type of things in the offense. I call them plays that are married, because we put a lot of good stuff on tape and now if you can get the good complements to go with them, then that becomes even more dangerous.”

So there's that, I guess, for anyone still following the thread.

Ii is unfortunate when…

Ii is unfortunate when people get sick, injured, and killed.  Especially young people.  

If you want 5X on every…

If you want 5X on every dollar you spend then put all your spend on Visa Gift Cards from Staples/Office Depot and buy them with your Chase Ink Business Cash when they are on sale.  Then get a Chase Sapphire and transfer the UR points to your airline of choice, or Hyatt.  Do the same thing for P2 and you should have 500k Chase UR points by the end of the year.  Coupling a layover in a good lounge (e.g. AA Dallas, Korean LAX) with a long haul flight in lie-flat business class seats for the whole family makes a strong impression FWIW.

 

Big 10/Big 10  would read…

Big 10/Big 10  would read again

Salary can be capped. …

Salary can be capped.  Endorsements can't.

Yo.

Yo.

The moment you've been…

The moment you've been waiting for finally came.  Kobe passed today.

Came here to say Payne…

Came here to say Payne Stewart.  Everyone in the plane was dead and frozen solid.  The plane continued to fly on autopilot until it ran out of gas and crashed.  It was reported live.  For quite some time pretty much everyone knew all the plane passengers were dead and that it would crash and then it did.

 

 

Applied to http:/…

Massive Hitters?