M football state of Michigan recruiting success to the NFL
There was board topic earlier today --since deleted - that was calling out Michigan football because 4 out of 5 players from in-state that were drafted by the NFL in 2022 weren't even offered by M and thus represented a fundamental failure of Michigan's recruiting and coaching staff. (I will try to do a brief synopsis and listing of those players in the first comment ..)
This seemed like a huge logical fallacy --- right up their with "Stars don't matter because a lot of 3-stars get drafted!" -- but the thread was killed before I had a chance to do some research and respond.
..
What I found ---
Looking at the top 10 players in the State I was actually struck by how well M recruits had done in terms of NFL draft success compared to the Non-M commits. I looked only at recent years but none later than 2020 as those players are not yet draft eligible. For players not yet drafted I have projected a bit.
2020 -
- M Signees in the MI top 10 = 3 McGregor, Seldon, Paige
- M Signees Drafted to date = 0
- M Signees projected to the NFL =2 McGregor, Paige
- Non-M Signees drafted to date = 0
- Non-M signees projected (by me) to the NFL = 0 maybes.. Justin Rogers (UK to AU), Maliq Carr (PU to MSU), Cam Martinez (OSU - last seen looking around for Cornelius Johnson in the Shoe)
2019
- M Signees in the top 10 = 2
- M Signees Drafted = 0
- M Signees projected to the NFL = 2 Mazi 2023 and (probably) Barnhart 2024
- Non-M Signees drafted to date = 0
- Non-M signees projected to NFL = 1 Anthony Bradford OG LSU (projected round 4-7 in 2023)
- Notes: Mazi was 4 in the state - Logan Brown 1 (UW-Kansas), Dobbs and Barnett 2,3 (MSU - Memphis), and Lance Dixon 5 (PSU-WV) have all transferred and made little impact at the college level to date.
2018
- M Signees in the top 10 = 3 (Hutch, Mayfield, Hayes)
- M Signees Drafted = 3
- Non-M Signees Drafted = 0
- Non-M signees projected to the NFL = 0 -- maybe McCall or Square from UK (really don't know them that well but think they are draft eligible this year.
2017* (Switched to On3 composite as 247's older databases are screwed up)
- M Signees in the top 10 = 7 (!!)
- M Signees drafted = 2 DPJ, Ambry
- Non-M signees drafted = 0
- Notes: for M some non-drafted free agents Ross, JKP -- and some misses/injuries - Paea, Irving-Bey, Malone-Hatcher
2016
- M signees in the top 10 = 2 Hill, Onwenu
- M signees drafted = 2
- Non-M signees drafted = 3 Hayes(ND), Kareem (ND), Jordan (OSU)
Based on this 5 year span the top 10 ranked players from Michigan translate to about 3 drafted players each HS class. Whether by luck or correct evaluations of potential M has a very good record in identifying and landing the players destined for the NFL.
TLDR -- About 65% of M signees from the State of Michigan top 10 get drafted versus about 30% overall
FYI - I can only remember 3 or the 4 state of Michigan NFL draftees that were not named Hutchinson from the original post. They were spread over at least 3 classes even though they were all 2022 draftees.
Sauce Gardener - 2019 recruit rated #43 in the state of MI - EVERYBODY missed on this kid's potential - best offer was Kentucky, only IU offered from the B1G.
Bernhard Raimann - 2017 recruit rated #55 in MI and 2092 overall as a 6'6" 303 pound Tight End - can guess why majors weren't lining up for that and he ended up at CMU. - great job on the kid's part working into an NFL OT
Eyioma Uwazurike - 2016 recruit and the highest rated on this list at #24 in MI and 829 overall. Was a 6'6" 300+ pound EDGE player that was never going to be pursued by Don Brown at that size (even for DT?!?) - I bet he would have had more interest from the current staff - and if they did that many on MGO would be whining about M pursuing a 3-star kid from M over a national recruit.
If anyone can remember the 4th guy please share -- for the original OP - just remember the exceptions actually prove the rule...
EDIT -- looks like I was wrong on Raimann (per the post below). The 303 pounds must have been his weight when drafted -- at 6'6"/6'7" and 230# he is much more in the mold of a conventional "moon shot" build a tackle - but if he had good athleticism in HS he would have been ranked higher and/or had more interest by the larger local schools.
The 4th guy was Sam Womack who played for Toledo
Fun little detail about Bernhard Raimann, check out his primary recruiter for Central Michigan...
April 12th, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^
Legend.
Good shit, AZBlue. Thanks for the detective work.
I missed the original post, but it sounds like it was a real stinker.
This is incisive analysis of the kind this board could always use. Well done
Just curious, but why was the original post deleted earlier today?
It was pretty much just a “concern troll” post and didn’t add anything of substance. For example they negatively compared M taking Schoonmaker - an out of state 4* Athlete/TE (who will be drafted this year) - to the 2* CMU “tight end” that became a tackle drafted in 2022.
I think McCall plays for Carolina
While he didn't count as a "top 10 state of Michigan player", KJ Hamler was a 2017 Non-M signee who was drafted. Michigan, Penn St, and other schools recruited him while in the state prior to his transfer to IMG Academy.
I did a series of posts researching things like this a few years back. I called it the "Fence the Mitten Project" and looked at what a team made up completely of the top 25 prospects in Michigan each year would look like.
If you're interested, here's the LINK.
Anyway, it's hard to hit on the exact right guys when you're only offering 8-10 per cycle. If landing a 5-star quarterback isn't a guarantee of success (I think Bruce Feldman said that more than 50% of 5-star quarterbacks flame out), then I don't know how evaluations of various players within the state can be expected to be a high hit rate.
It's been discussed before, but to compete on a national level, Michigan needs to recruit the entire country. There's not enough homegrown talent, and Michigan can't take fliers on a bunch of 2-star guys. There's a reason they're 2-stars. And there's a reason some of those guys develop at places like CMU and WMU - because they're given room to grow and time to develop. A 2-star kid who's a 240 lb. offensive tackle is going to get passed immediately by 4- and 5-star 300 lb. offensive tackles, and that kid is going to transfer out of Michigan before he will ever see the field. But if you can get on the field at CMU as a redshirt freshman, get playing time/experience, etc., then you have a few years on the field before you become an NFL prospect.
Ohio State did it under Jim Tressel. They stopped recruiting from Ohio only, and they started going after kids in Florida and Texas. That's when they went from the John Cooper era to a truly nationally competitive level and stopped losing to Michigan every year.
Michigan is doing just fine the way it is. Are there misses within the state? Sure. Do they find diamonds in the rough and/or 5-star talents from outside the state? Absolutely.
I've criticized Michigan's recruiting in the past - a couple years ago - but lamenting how they handle in-state recruiting is not a very serious issue. I'm sure there are success stories in Alabama who weren't offered by Nick Saban, success stories from Ohio who weren't offered by Urban Meyer, success stories from Texas who weren't offered by the various Texas coaches, etc.
BTW, there's also the issue that some players aren't going to fit the academics, the team culture, etc. at Michigan. I know of players who were plenty talented to go to a place like Michigan, but they had to settle for offers from MAC schools because of academics...and some of them couldn't even hack it in the MAC. There are guys with Michigan "offers" who end up playing at FCS schools because they can't do it.
Brian Cole, Deron Irving-Bey, etc., lots of kids just can't get it done at Michigan. Brian Cole didn't end up at a JUCO in Mississippi accidentally.
April 12th, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^
Matt Judon
This is a very mature and reasonable perspective.
Ohio State did it under Jim Tressel. They stopped recruiting from Ohio only, and they started going after kids in Florida and Texas. That's when they went from the John Cooper era to a truly nationally competitive level and stopped losing to Michigan every year.
This isn't accurate. Cooper recruited a lot of guys from Florida, Texas and California. Overall, his rosters were stacked. He just had trouble beating Michigan.
I think you may be confusing Cooper with Earle Bruce. Bruce was a much worse recruiter and the talent level of his teams dropped off over the course of his tenure. Cooper brought it back up.
April 11th, 2023 at 10:12 PM ^
I sure hope that troll reads this!
April 11th, 2023 at 10:17 PM ^
you double your chances that he will if you post it again
April 11th, 2023 at 10:12 PM ^
I sure hope that troll reads this!
April 11th, 2023 at 10:17 PM ^
attaboy
April 11th, 2023 at 10:27 PM ^
This seems as good a place as any to post this--not a miss because who could have foreseen?--but in Dane Brugler's THE BEAST draft guide, who's the tackle rated one spot ahead of Ryan Hayes? Well...
18. JAKE WITT | Northern Michigan 6071 | 302 lbs. | 5SR Bruce Crossing, Mich. (Ewen Trout) 2/7/2000 (age 23.22) #65
BACKGROUND: Jacob “Jake” Witt, who has one younger sister, was born and raised in Bruce Crossing, a small community on the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. His town didn’t have a pee-wee football program and he started playing basketball in the second grade. Witt attended Ewen Trout Creek High School where he graduated as the valedictorian of his 16-student class. He was a four-year starter on the basketball team and was named Upper Peninsula Mr. Basketball as a senior, averaging 27 points and 18 rebounds per game. He finished his basketball career with over 1,000 points and 1,000 rebounds. As a junior, Witt joined the football team, which was the first time he had ever played organized football. In his two seasons on the football field, he was a 235-pound wide receiver at Ewen Trout Creek, which played in an eight-man football league. Witt also lettered in track (sprints, relays and throws) and set personal bests in the 100 meters (12.88), 200 meters (25.47), shot put (45’11”), discus (162’0”) and long jump (15’7.25”).
A no-star recruit, Witt wasn’t well known on the recruiting trail, but he received plenty of attention from Division II programs in both basketball and football. He was leaning toward playing football in college, but he had a productive senior year in basketball and that became his focus. His final decision came down to Michigan Tech for basketball, Northern Michigan for football or a preferred walk-on opportunity at Central Michigan. Witt chose Michigan Tech basketball and he averaged 6.4 points per game as a freshman in 2018-19. While Michigan Tech was known for its engineering department, he decided to become a health sciences major and transferred to Northern Michigan prior to the 2019 school year. He didn’t play sports that year and “enjoyed just being a regular student.” He started training at a local gym and they convinced him to try playing football again. Witt joined the football team as a tight end at Northern Michigan in the spring of 2020 just weeks before the pandemic shut things down. After the 2020 season was canceled, he played tight end for the first eight games of the 2021 season until halftime against Ferris State when the coaches asked him to move to right tackle out of necessity because of injuries. He started the final two games of the season at right tackle and, the following year, moved to left tackle at 280 pounds. Witt graduated with his degree in applied exercise science and health and also received his certification as a personal trainer. He received an invitation to the 2023 College Gridiron Showcase but declined as he continued to add weight.
April 11th, 2023 at 11:39 PM ^
That's pretty awesome. Hope he hears his name called in the draft.
April 12th, 2023 at 12:00 AM ^
Great story! Thanks for posting. I'm sure I would never have known if you hadn't.
April 11th, 2023 at 11:12 PM ^
Thank you for posting that. The sample size was skewing things....let alone other factors.
April 11th, 2023 at 11:47 PM ^
CMU has done well with OT and DT. they had JJ watt, then that KC OT who went 1 overall and raimann among others. but this is over two decades. It's hard to guess how a 18 year old might grow.
April 12th, 2023 at 12:20 AM ^
In the 2022 NFL draft, five guys who played HSFB in MI got drafted. Only one of the five got an M offer (legacy Hutchinson). The other four were lower rated guys who played elsewhere.
The highly paid, highly experienced UMich scouts missed on 80% of the future NFL draftees in their own state, most of whom played within an hour of A2.
What's worse is the distance the M recruiters traveled to evaluate, offer, and onboard out of state alternatives who for the most part were busts.
I am the OP. I just wanted to know how professional talent evaluators could have such a high failure rate.
Does the M recruiting department use star ratings as an initial filter? That would explain why they did not offer the four lower star guys who played elsewhere and then got drafted. That would be too lazy though and I doubt it's true because of elder Bell, Haskins, etc...
If on the other hand they ignore star ratings and use their own formula then I asserted the M formula needs work. Not in so many words, but I basically said it shouldn't be that difficult for professional scouts to determine who has an NFL future when you give the scout the measurables, transcripts, tape, interviews with the player/parents/coaches, and the eyeball. They have been doing this for decades and they get paid handsomely for doing so.
I overlooked something important, though.
An explanation offered before the thread was deleted is that M was aware of all the future pros, offered the guys who could make it through Admissions, and ignored the others. That's pretty charitable and it could also be true.
Other explanations: the future is impossible to predict; some people are late bloomers; some people are early peakers.
Those are all valid but I am not fully satisfied. 2% of HSFB players get some form of athletic scholarship in college and 1.6% of CFB players make it to the NFL. To the trained eye, HSFB players with NFL futures should stand out like 32 quarters in a pile of 10,000 pennies. Especially when they are right in front of your face.
I think your base premise is wrong. It is NOT easy at all to project future NFL draftees. There is a reason even the ultra-elite 5-stars — I.e. Peppers or Rashan Gary -- are essentially still just a coin flip to make the NFL…. and that is considered good accuracy by most.
Your examples were kids that were missed by pretty much everybody which suggests they were not elite athletes in HS. Your post also seemed to imply this was a UM-only problem which spurred the backlash. The tackle you noted was a fat tight end in rated in the 2000s nationally that apparently grew into a Tackle over 5 years of hard work in college. The system is not perfect but if my numbers are close..30% of the top ten ranked MI kids make the NFL. You add in your examples - say 1 per year in the 11-50 range and that percentage drops to 8%.
M does not have enough scholarships for an 8% hit rate so the number of “flyers” they can take is limited unless kids want to walk on.
But, many are not NFL football players when they are 16, 17, or 18.
Three, four, or five years of college level S&C make a difference.
The problem with your 32 quarters out of 10,000 pennies is that you are talking about the 5-Star athletes. They represent the "Quarters" that stand out in HS.
The reason the other kids get overlooked is because they are under developed / 'late bloomers'. To clarify your example, the 32 'quarters' are the 5 star athletes that "stand out" in HS Football, that has about a 50% hit rate on being drafted. The other 4 are a portion of the other 9,968 pennies that would have to be sifted through. A much lower "hit" rate.
Do these 4 make for great personal achievement stories, absolutely. But if you have a staff of coaches with yes limited time and budget. You will absolutely focus your efforts on getting as many "Quarters" as you can
April 12th, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
If there is one thing I trust this staff to do is evaluate.
Programs all over the country missed Sauce Garner. OSU, Notre Dame, PSU, Kentucky, and MSU could have used also used an elite cornerback, Yet they all passed on him. He was NOT an NFL talent in high school. He developed into one. There are 100's of college recruiting departments looking at these guys in addition to businesses like 247 and On3 and they all missed these guys. It happens.
April 12th, 2023 at 11:11 AM ^
I can share a little on one guy: Sauce Gardner was an academic casualty--for MSU and LSU as well as Michigan--but also did not have anything like his eventual speed in high school.
Had his academics been enough for the Big Ten or SEC, he would have been a DJ Waller-level recruit out of high school--a gamble, but still a gamble that a lot of Power 5 teams would take because of his size, and a gamble the big power programs wouldn't bother with because it's rare that a player can get that dramatically faster. I can only think of a few Michigan players to do that--DJ Turner, Troy Woolfolk, Devin Funchess, and then if you want you can count Dymonte Thomas going from a 4.7 to a 4.4 guy over the course of his senior year of high school.
It's not necessarily winning the jackpot, but if there are markers of a guy whose speed will go up substantially over his college career, at best it's something like "He's Butch Woolfolk's son, and Butch got a late speed boost too." All of our scientific knowledge on growth still can't find those kinds of markers. Who knows, though: maybe one day Michigan will find a gene that controls the timing of your last growth spurt or some hormone that is present in someone whose muscle twitchiness isn't done developing, get blood samples from every recruit in Michigan, and find a player or two who would have been missed today. But that's what you're really going to need if your intent is to create a process that would have turned up Sauce Gardner. Especially if they were going to do it in time to get his school work on track to be accepted to Michigan, because a lot of high schools in this state do an absolutely crap job at preparing perfectly college-suited students to look good to colleges.
Fickell is on the record for saying he didn't know what he had. Oh, he knew Gardner was better than his ranking, and the reason why other conferences had to back off, but he thought he'd stolen a shot at developing a Big Ten-caliber starter, not the future best CB in football. There are plenty of times (Michigan with Hassan Haskins is a perfect example) when a school does actually turn up a guy where they see his full potential and nobody else is aware of it, but the vast majority of players who were underrated, and all of those you mentioned, are virtually indiscernible from hundreds of high school prospects who won't ever reach the level of a B10 starter.
Out of the hundreds of HS kids I've coached, three made it to the NFL. And not one of them appeared to be on track to do so at anytime, as late as their senior year in HS. On the other hand, most of the "can't miss" guys barely made it to college, or didn't at all.
Getting "paid handsomely" to coalesce factors such as work ethic, mental toughness, family support, durability, dedication/love for the sport, strong moral character, attitude, and so on, into a projection of who will go pro, means squat.
The money makes almost no difference. It doesnt make you psychic. Which is why the obvious factors such as speed, size, etc. are leaned upon so heavily. To your point, you can't predict the future, and what you, and most others think are the deciding factors on who will be a pro, are not.
How can you know if the kid will get hurt and continuously miss rehab appts because he'd rather lay up with a no good gf? How can you predict if he'll be a good listener, and if he can/wants to apply what he's taught, once he leaves his parents' house?
How do you know if his loving mother and her cooking suddenly being an hour away will cause him to fall apart? Did you eat her spaghetti? Or that he doesn't really love football? Did he tell you he just does it because it makes ppl like him and his self esteem is shit?
I joke, but most times you can't know these things. Do you think his HS coach, who receives glory for his players making it to a P5 school, is going to tell you the kid's a POS that he damn near kicks off the team on a weekly basis? Think again.
It's an inexact science, just like the draft. Go back ten years and look at draft boards and ask yourself if you've heard of 80% of those guys. Then look at the high draft picks and count the number of busts on that list. NFL scouts are also "paid handsomely." So what? The shits hard man.
April 12th, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
Excellent analysis
I am a middle school soccer coach. We have tryouts and I have to evaluate talent and make cuts. Every year kids show up to school tryouts wearing club jerseys. I think they do this because they want me to make inferences about them based on the club team they made. That would be like UMich football only giving offers to kids who Rivals previously rated as 4 or 5 stars. I don't pay attention to club jerseys and instead evaluate based on my own system.
A few years ago I took someone as an eighth grader (Julie) who I cut as a seventh grader. As an eighth grader, Julie ended up being an important starter. My assumption: if she was good enough to start as an eighth grader then she must have been good enough to at least make the team as a seventh grader. Therefore I assume I failed to properly evaluate her as a seventh grader. Therefore there must be a problem with my talent evaluation system. It makes me sick to think about and it is something I never want to experience again.
Years have passed and now many of my former MS players are on the HS varsity. Two days ago I wanted to watch one of their games online. I had to get their jersey numbers off MaxPreps and while I was there I saw this article: "2022 NFL Draft: State-by-state look at where draftees played high school football."
(https://www.maxpreps.com/m/news/kSVmutjJi02CQsrCw9V3AQ/2022-nfl-draft-state-by-state-look-at-where-draftees-played-high-school-football.htm)
According to the article, in 2022 five players were drafted into the NFL who played HSFB in MI:
Aidan Hutchinson, Divine Child (Dearborn)
Samuel Womack, East English Village Prep (Detroit)
Bernhard Raimann, Kellogg (Delton)
Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner, King (Detroit)
Eyioma Uwazurike, Southfield-Lathrup (Lathrup Village)
I looked at each player's offer sheet on Rivals and noticed that only one of the five got a UMich offer (Hutchinson).
My assumption: UMich could have taken Womack, Raimann, Gardner, Uwazurike but they took these guys instead: https://michigan.rivals.com/commitments/football/2018
This got me thinking about my own failure to identify Julie's talent. It seemed worse to me though because I only missed one Julie whereas the UMich talent evaluators SEEMINGLY missed 4/5 of the in-state Julies and who knows how many out-of-state Julies.
I posted my now-deleted findings (along with the sources) to MGOBlog because I am a neophyte seeking knowledge. I thought the community might have an explanation for the hits and misses in the 2018 recruiting class. I was hoping to learn something from the Michigan case study that I could apply to my own talent evaluation process so I would never miss another Julie again.
Seth, AZBlue, and especially Magnus helped me realize that my conclusions were based on faulty underlying assumptions, and moreover, the UMich talent evaluation system probably did not fail. I encourage anyone who is interested to study their replies. This work by Magnus is particularly good: https://touch-the-banner.com/the-fence-the-mitten-project-mitten-complete
I appreciate you sticking around to explain and take the flak.
There are a few on this board that only create posts to complain about something with Michigan and yours got incorrectly judged in that mold. Just check the comments the next time we sign a 3* ranked in the 600-range
After your 32 "quarters" there probably are about 10000 "pennies" that have the talent/ability fill the 2500-ish available FBS Freshman roster spots each year -- which is where 95% of NFL prospects come from. I doubt there is a huge disparity in the athletic talent levels of these kids..
As others have noted --what would affect a prospects chance to succeed would include many items out of (complete) control of the prospects - timing of growth spurt, level of nutrition and weight training available, injuries, HS staff assistance in promotion AND academic prep, ability to afford professional camps or trainers etc.. When you combine these with intangibles like "game-intelligence", "love of the game", and work ethic -- you find the things that lead a 2* like Jake Ryan to make the NFL while a top 300 OL in the same class (?) washes out of college ball because he didn't love football and wanted to play W.o.W. all day instead of lifting or studying film.
With all these obstacles - it actually shows how well this staff has done to find some of these underrated gems. Ronnie Bell and Hassan Haskins would probably have never played major college FB let alone in the NFL if the M staff had not "found" them and offered.
Good Luck with your Futbol team.
At the 1978 Emsley A. Laney High School varsity basketball tryouts Coach Clifton "Pop" Herring had a talent identification system in place that resulted in him cutting Michael Jordan and taking 15 other kids instead.
Sports psychologists, coaches, players, and especially parents tell this story like it only has one lesson, that being "Be like Mike."
I see it from Herring's perspective and think "that guy needs a new talent identification system."
Thanks for the analysis, i think it shows that M does a good job identifying and targeting the elite talent in state when it’s available. And it also illustrates the randomness to an extent of recruiting. Whether it be positional need, or recruiting profile, or simply these kids growing and expanding at smaller schools. Would be interested to see how many kids from Michigan go nfl from non P5. My old highschool classmate went from Stanford and other P5 interest, to Hillsdale, to the NFL for 10+ years, it happens.
This discussion only made me more curious about the success rate for talent identification systems. It was a chore but I found some data points I am happy to share.
31.1% of University of Michigan scholarship football players made it to the NFL as players in the 85 scholarship era.
29.2% of the 2017 Offer Board made it to the NFL already, possibly with more to come.
Conclusion based on flimsy evidence: Harbaugh-era coaches seem to be better than average when it comes to identifying talent.
Caveat: I don't know how to account for going pro early, going pro in a league other than the NFL, and going pro as a coach instead of as a player. And obviously I only looked at one year, so sample size...
______________________________
In the 85 scholarship era (including 1995, 2022, and all years in between), a total of 1,119 players were on the University of Michigan football team. That works out to 40 players in each class, 21.25 of whom were on scholarship. (1119/28=40) and (85/4=21.25). Source: https://bentley.umich.edu/athdept/rosters/search.php?data=football&lastname_option=equals&lastname=&firstname_option=equals&firstname=&number_option=equals&number=&year_option=between&year=&startyear=1995&endyear=2022&letter_option=equals&letter=&position_option=equals&position=&class=any&hometown_option=equals&hometown=&state=&highschool_option=equals&highschool=&sortby=lastname%2C+firstname%2C+year&find=FIND
Including 1995, 2022, and all years in between, a total of 186 unique University of Michigan players were associated with NFL football teams. That works out to 6.6 NFL players per class. (186/28=6.6)
Source: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/schools/michigan/
Therefore 31.1% of University of Michigan scholarship football players made an NFL team during the 85 scholarship era. Math: (6.6 NFL players divided by 21.25 scholarship players = 31.1%)
Of the talent the Michigan coaches identify (offer), what percentage go on to play for a paycheck? How good are the coaches at identifying talent?
According to Touch The Banner, Michigan extended offers to 106 players in 2017.
As of today, 29.2% of the players Michigan offered in 2017 are associated with an NFL team. (31/106=29.2%) 40/106 are not in the SRCFB and 35/106 are in the SRCFB associated with a college team, not an NFL team.
https://touchthebanner.blogspot.com/p/2017-offer-board.html
https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/#site_menu_link