alum96

April 21st, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^

Caris 35ish at 2, Irvin 35ish at 3, Walton 30ish at 1, Doyle 25ish at 5, Dawkins 25ish at 4, Spike 15ish at 1/2.

Wilson vs Donnal for remaining 15 minutes at 5, loser gets those minutes on nights Doyle gets 2 quick fouls.

Everyone else fights for minutes like Mad Max - primary minutes remaining are backup 3/4 with Spike taking most of those backup 2 minutes when Beilein goes to the small guard lineup with Walton/Spike together (maybe 5 min a game).  Robinson, Chatman, Mo, etc. MAAR sort of squeezed out with this return - but a nice insurance policy on nites Caris gets 2 1st half fouls.

  Beilein rides his big guns big minutes so guys like Irvin and Caris are not going to be playing 28-32 min a night.  Walton I only have down at 30 due to Spike being a 1B starter to Walton's 1A.

Should push UM into that 3rd-4th spot with Maryland/MSU conf favorites. Sweet 16 would definitely be the goal.

http://cdn.smosh.com/sites/default/files/ftpuploads/bloguploads/1113/fabulous-kid-white-dance.gif

93Grad

April 21st, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^

One of the guys you mentioned as being on the outside will be in the rotation as I can see JB going to an 8-9 rotation with this much depth. 

The main rotation will be: 1) Walton, 2) Caris, 3) Irvin, 4) Dawkins, 5) Doyle, 6) Spike, 7) Donnal/Wilson, 8) MAAR, 9) Chatman/Robinson/Wagner

alum96

April 21st, 2015 at 11:39 AM ^

Depth is going to be great and helpful on nites guys get 2 fouls at the 11 minute mark of the 1st.  Instead of going to a walk on you go to a MAAR or Chatman or Mo or Robinson (or Dawkins if somehow Robinson wins the 4).

Also can now withstand an injury  (knock on wood). 

I would actually be kind of confused if that guy from VCU transfers in now - this was basically his spot being taken and if he had expectations to play as a freshman I simply don't see it. 

Will be tough enough for MAAR to even find minutes.  Caris plays his primary position and if Walton is playing 30 a night (which is pretty low for a starting JR PG) and you want to find Spike minutes then you are going to see 5 min a night of Spike + Walton as the backcourt.    I think MAAR is going to be a break in case of emergency / play when Caris gets early fouls type option this year.

Speaking of squeezed if Robinson is going to 4, and Mo is at 4, and Dawkins is 3/4 - puts a lot of squeeze on Chatman.

ypsituckyboy

April 21st, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^

Dawkins. I'll believe it when I see it, but word has it that Duncan was one of the top 3 players on the team. This isn't just "he gave so-and-so fits during practice" talk that Donnal and Bielfeldt got. This is "he's one of our best players" talk.

WorldwideTJRob

April 21st, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^

It's still "practice" Dawkins has come up huge in the clutch for us and was arguably our best player down the stretch Robinson has to prove it against other competition before he has cemented a spot in the starting lineup, let alone the rotation



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

BigBlue02

April 21st, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^

But it wasn't just practice when he won player of the year 2 years ago. I get the love for Dawkins and I'm excited to see him get better, but he wasn't even one of the best freshmen in the B10 let alone in the nation. I think Dawkins will be amazing when his time in AA is up, but anyone thinking Duncan has only been good in practice isn't paying much attention. A true freshmen getting player of the year, whether D1 or D3, is a fantastic accomplishment. Duncan isn't anywhere comparable to Donnal because, yes, he has proved it on the floor and not just in practice. Unless you somehow think Donnal could have been player of the year 2 years ago, then the comparisons stop at they are both tallish and white

WorldwideTJRob

April 21st, 2015 at 12:10 PM ^

But that's to assume that Dawkins couldn't have done the same thing on that level. Nobody is knocking Duncan, I hope he succeeds but to say he will be better than Dawkins because he tore it up in D3 when Aubrey has proven his worth in D1 is a little off to me. Time will tell though!



Sent from MGoBlog HD for iPhone & iPad

DrMantisToboggan

April 21st, 2015 at 11:11 AM ^

Dawkins, but Robinson will play the 4 and Irvin the 3. DR will be Beilein's first true stretch 4 at UM in terms of both size and shooting capability. We will be very deep so I am not saying Dawkins won't play a lot, but you can't keep a 6'8, 45% 3-pt shooter on the bench, especially with how well Irvin played at the end of this year.

DrMantisToboggan

April 21st, 2015 at 11:25 AM ^

I am just reading the writing on the wall based on players who have more restricted playing options. LeVert will almost always be at the 2. Irvin has played the 4 but will probably play the 3, especially with the size differential and Robinson's ability to play the 4. Just gives us better match ups on D, theoretically. I don't doubt DRob's athleticism to play all over though, and we will see what works best.

alum96

April 21st, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^

We'll see.  Practice is practice.

If you extrapolate Dawkins last 4-5 weeks of the year he would have been our 3rd leading scorer and his 3 pt shooting was actually pretty damn good himself.  Until I see guys do it in real games I go with the guy who actually has been thru the rigor of a season.

Aubrey shot 43.8% 3 pt FG ...in real games v Div 1 opponents.  That's stellar for a freshman.

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/3136493/…

 

BigBlue02

April 21st, 2015 at 1:40 PM ^

But you can't just extrapolate his numbers over the year. That's like saying Dawkins got better over his freshman season and completely ignoring that Robinson would get better as well. Since Dawkins didn't play much until halfway through the season, the only person who has actually been through the rigor of a season is Robinson, and he won national player of the year. You are biased because you saw Dawkins improve and get better. My guess is you have seen zero of Robinson, so I'm not sure why you think he hasn't improved from his freshman year

alum96

April 21st, 2015 at 3:07 PM ^

No I can extrapolate.  Dawkins got better.  Assuming he wont regress next year I can extrapolate that what I got in Dawkins in Feb/March will be the floor next year.  In fact I assume he gets incrementally better.   And he did it in Div1.   What Dawkins was in November is now moot.  Again 44% 3 pt shooter as a freshman - people are lauding Robinson's shooting but really it is difficult to find any freshman guys who took at least 20 3 pters who are shooting mid 40%s. 

I am not saying Dawkins is "super" but this is a guy who was doing it in a real conference.   Robinson still has to prove his game translates to this level.  Hopefully it does and we have a real issue of 2 very good players.  Dawkins still has a lot of things to work on as well.  I assume Robinson got better last year as well but going thru a year of practices is not the same as game situations. 

I have no idea how anyone is evaluating Robinson right now.  We have seen nothing of him v P5 type opponents at D1.  So if I am extrapolating on Dawkins how the heck is anyone lauding Robinson as a starter not extrapolating.  It's the same as saying Chatman would be a key cog last year based on HS starz - we all extrapolated that and were wrong.

alum96

April 21st, 2015 at 11:26 AM ^

Dawkins was not a very good defensive player last year but it is not all about height.  And its in theory 1 inch - Dawkins is supposed to be 6'7 and ("that's racist) I would assume he has better hops than Robinson so you have to take into account wingspan and hops.  We know Dawkins has hops.  

Last, defense is also about foot speed and short area quickness.  I have no idea what Robinson does or does not have in those areas so it's just far too simple to say "1 extra inch, going to be a better defender".  Donnal has more inches and I don't see him guarding 4s very well at all.

alum96

April 21st, 2015 at 11:30 AM ^

Maryland will probably be the fav with MSU right there with the addition of Swanigan.  We'll see - MSU rarely actually counts on freshmen but they have 2 top flight prospects so it will be new to them.  Let's see how they take to Izzo tearing them to pieces which usually is what happens in year 1 - the exception is Gary Harris which actually did well for a freshman.

This gives us a chance though - I put our 1 thru 3 up against anyone not just in the conf but in the country.  4 and 5 (ability to rebound, ability to get any offense inside, ability to defend the rim) and bench play will tell the tale.