One question though. How many teams have tried to score a TD with under a minute and 80 yards to go? You mentioned 6 made it. I was wondering what the percentage was.
Miami (NTM), UMass, FIU, Louisiana-Monroe, North Texas, Wake Forest, Oregon State…
What do these teams have in common?
These are the 8 teams that have averaged less than 2 yards per carry from their running backs on first down at least 2 different times this season. This is not a good list to be on. Miami (OH) has done it three times and has fired their coach. You know what is different between the fired Don Treadwell and the Michigan offense. When it wasn’t working they stopped doing it. Against Marshall, Central Michigan and Kentucky they averaged between 1 and 1.7 YPC from their running backs on first down. They gave them the ball 14 times total in those three games.
Against Michigan’s two best opponents, Notre Dame and Penn State, Michigan has averaged 1.7 yards per carry from it’s running backs on first down. Michigan has run the ball 35 times on first down. No other team has called more than 26 running back carries in games with under 2 YPA.
What is Michigan getting for their sacrifice?
Michigan is ranked 41st in bonus yards, my measure of big plays. It’s not a bad number but it doesn't indicate a massive advantage. Michigan’s average third down is 7.6 yards. They haven’t had a single game better than 7 yards to go on average for third down. 95 teams average less than 7 yards to go on third down for the season. 95 teams average third down is better than Michigan’s best game average. Michigan hasn’t even been that great at converting third downs once you account for their horrendous third down to go distance (-3%, 108th out 125). Michigan is getting no discernable advantage from the first down runs.
This has to stop. It’s at the point of absurd. The funny thing is when I initially pulled the numbers, this was Michigan’s second best 1st down day on the ground (a measly 4 and change per attempt) on the season but that was all driven by Devin Gardner. Obviously he can’t take every carry but the playcalling has to dramatically change. Michigan is among some of the worst overall teams in the country when their running backs run the ball on first down, they are the only teams that keeps doing it.
No issue whatsoever with the decision to punt the ball. Should they have let themselves lose the 5 yards on the delay of game, absolutely not. That was the error. Field goals from the 35 in the fourth quarter or OT are good 40% of the time, but there is a lot of self selection in the group. Only 36 field goals have been made of that distance or longer in the fourth quarter or overtime in the last 10+ seasons. Making a kick of that distance late in the game happens a couple times a year in all of college football.
By kicking it, Michigan forced Penn State to go at least 80 yards with less than minute to go and no time outs. Since 2003, only 6 teams have scored a TD under these circumstances, one of which was Michigan in UTL1. Yes a field goal would have won it but that is a low likelihood possibility. I have no issues at all with the decision to punt.
Since 2007, teams getting to go second on offense in overtime have won 55% of the time. In 287 overtime periods the team going first has gone scoreless 79 times. 13 of those times the second team went scoreless, as well. This hadn’t happened twice in a game until this season, but now it’s happened three times this season. Michigan is the only team since 2007 to blow two freebies in one game.
Brendan Gibbons missed three field goals that would have been walk-offs. Twitter user @jquesnelle asked if that had ever been done before? Since 2003 I found five games where a team missed three kicks in fourth quarter or overtime and lost, some of them are brutal, but nobody had three walk off attempts missed/blocked.
Here’s the five to share in the pain.
2003, Cincinnati beats Temple 30-24 in 3OT
2005, LSU beats Auburn 20-17 in OT
2008 Apple Cup, Washington State beats winless Washington 16-13 in OT
2012 Temple 17 UConn 14 in OT
One question though. How many teams have tried to score a TD with under a minute and 80 yards to go? You mentioned 6 made it. I was wondering what the percentage was.
And my head explodes every time coaches play just for field goals after regulation. GO FOR THE G-D TOUCHDOWN or at least get closer before booting it.
Quick name the results of our previous 3 drives, before the infamous punt from the 35 (which came after a delay -5 yds and ANOTHER Fitz loss -3 yds ....
OK the answer .... if you guessed FG, TD and ANOTHER TD ... you win.
Bottom line - we were kicking their ass and the COACHING STAFF CHOKED it away. I feel so badly for our players ... it WAS NOT their fault.
not sure why Borges still has a job after reading this post...his inability to adapt is un-fucking believable at this point...granted, Hoke should be making the changes as well, but at the end of the day Hoke is a great recruiter and Borges is clearly a detriment to the team
a f-ing football genious. None of the decisions that Borges made if they had worked would have been wrong. You can say that the opposite choice given the outcome of the game was the correct one but to the idiot eat-your-own fans/posters here that never enters into your collective considerations.
With a kicker that has been as sure for two seasons up to this point - playing to get the kick and nothing more in the OT's was sound thinking. Is it Borges' fault that on the blocked kick Bolden let the guy who blocked the kick run right between him and the EMOL ? Is it Borges' fault that Gibbons ended up missing which is totally uncharacteristic of him?
Is it Borges' fault that Gardner's interceptions are actually the entire reason this team has squeaked by or now not squeaked by? His choice is Shane or Cleary. Not his fault that Bellomy was hurt. I'm guessing they have pulled out all of the stops to try and set up a game that Gardner can limit mistakes - just guessing.
Only thing in this game that confuses me is how the clock management got missed - I would say that is Borges and it certainly hasn't been a trend. Shit happens.
Correct or somehow rectify Gardner's turnovers and we are a team that has good buffer wins, is undefeated but with a very inconsistent O line that has to be addressed.
Borges and Hoke are paid to put their team's in the best position to win. They coached not to lose and it bit them in the ass. First down run after first down run; not calling time out before the delay of game; getting the play in late to Devin; playing for field goals instead of trying to score td's; not adjusting the play calling to what was working on the field; etc., etc., etc.
and could see the 10 -12 yd cushion their man coverage was giving - there would be NO QUESTION about throwing the football. It couldn't have been intercepted ... there wasn't a defender within 10 yards of ANY wideout! Any quick throw was guaranteed 5 yards ... shit - with 12 seconds left, we throw the first pass to a running back since the ND game ... who didn't have ANYBODY WINTHIN 10 YARDS of him ... but he had to go out of bounds to stop the clock.
FORGODSAKES .... WAKE UP. The coaches, and only the coaches, blew this game.
This has baffled me, too. Many times it looked like there was a huge cushion on the outside. And I have been wondering if they would ever pass to a RB. I can't, for the life of me, figure out why Hoke/Borges don't want to take advantage of these situations. Do they really not believe Gardner can handle those short passes? Do they really believe they have to run into a wall over and over? Why? And I thought Borges was a West coast offense guy. I'm no expert, but I thought that used a lot of short passes rather than plowing runs into walls. I just don't understand what they are thinking.
for Borges, its a great strategy!!!...yeah and lets blame Devin, its not like he is the only person keeping the Offense afloat....yeah lets put in Morris or Bellomy (with his lame arm) and lets continue to blame the players!!!!! lets not look at the math of Borges' terrible play calling and continue to blame everyone but the guy calling the bad plays!!! you are so smart, how could i be so wrong for not agreeing with you????!!!!?!?!?!
Are the complaints or decisions that you cite the exact and only way we could have succeeded? How do you explain Gardner's turnovers? How is throwing to Anthony Zettle Borges' fault?
Again, because something wasn't successful for a myriad of reasons or for one reason - it doesn't mean that the alternative was the only way a team could have succeeded in that instance.
Tell me specifically how Gardner's interceptions are because of Borges' incompetance? Gardner has all of the physical tools but is still struggling. Also criticizing players is a pure dick move (your comment about Bellomy). Typical turdy little fair weather fan.
Gardner is absolutely the guy keeping the offense moving AFTER WE TURN OVER THE BALL AND HAVE TO FIGHT BACK.
Devin's turnovers are more on decisions and less on pass protection pressure - absolute fact. As soon as Devin can get control of this (and I hope he does - he's a great kid) we have a lot less to worry about. When a team doesn't respect a passing game they are going to send everyone on running downs which is what is happening. They know Gardner can burn them but they are also playing the odds.
Do you think Gardner just shows up to game and Borges gives him the play list for the day? Borges is also the QB coach which means he trains him and develops Devin's skills. That training reflects on gameday. As you've noticed, Gardner has regressed as a passer. Gardner pounded on teams last year that were significantly better than UConn and Akron and looked competent against great defenses. This year, Gardner looks like a backup freshman qb half the time while his skills (arm strength and scrambling) show up from time to time. Denard and Gardner both regressed in their second years under Borges and that is mostly on Borges.
What if Gardner is actually executing well what he has been taught? What if the O-line is actually exectuing well what they've been taught? I find it hard to believe, but it's starting to become less crazy as more time goes by and these problems don't get fixed.
Scary thought to me: Denard was better in 2011 when he had less Borges coaching than in 2012. Devin was better in 2012 when he had little QB coaching from Borges since he was at WR then he has been in 2013 with a full summer/spring/fall of Borges coaching. It *is* interesting. Could be chance but I certainly am not seeing solid progression year over year from either player. You can argue if either made forward progress in fact.
Other than Funchess I cannot think of any player who has really taken a major step forward on offense (and that required a position switch) other than MAYBE Gallon and for all we know that is due to the offense early last year - i.e. Gallon was always there, just not being used until his buddy decided to throw to him constantly in last 5 games. Even Lewan seems worse than last year but I am assuming that is injury and general tomfoolery of his OL friends.
Yup, pretty much every player. That's just downright depressing. We have the talent and work ethic but the technique and scheme both suck.
was in 2nd and 3rd and long all day (as evidenced by the Mathlete). That and the fact that Michigan has an awful line meant that any offensive success wold be from Gardner doing something magical. That's why he forced it.
I said it before, but why the hell doesn't Borges accept that our O line sucks and play call around it?
MSU has a crappy QB, they call plays around that.
"Tell me specifically how Gardner's interceptions are because of Borges' incompetance?"
running for -1 to 2 yards on 1st down into a stacked line to set up 2nd & then 3rd and longs, puts your QB in a poor situation. Doing that consistently puts him in a worse situation. Not calling bubble screens, slants, & other very easy throws for your QB does him no favors.
Also, at some point Gardner had to realize that running was futile, but Big Al did that anyway.
"Unless Carmen Electra calls..." This quote comes to mind right now with you as you seem pissed on Ari Gold levels
nice reference....and i am pissed as well as all of us should be...the coaching is what lost this game and I for one want to see Borges (and Hoke) be held accountable and apologize for their stupid ass play-calling and fix the problem....but unfortunately, egos won't let that happen
Obviously it is not Borges' fault that Gibbons ended up uncharacteristically missing, but at that point Gibbons had come up short once and had another blocked. Seems like the coaching staff needed to recognize the possiblity that these previous outcomes could have negatively impacted Gibbons. They had 3 and very short and didn't appear to even really try to get the first down.
WRT to Gardner turnovers, hard to tell what is is cause and what is effect. Does he try to hit small windows because he knows that we can't run or do we try to run because Gardner is turnover prone? What impact is the tremendous pressure that is constantly in his face having? At this point, Garder turnovers and poor running are seemingly in some type of negative reinforcement feedback loop.
BOB recognized that his kicker was struggling and went for it on 4th down despite having a relatively short kick. Hoke messed up badly.
You asked the question "is it Borges' fault?"
Heres the thing, every player has their strengths and weaknesses. Its the coordinators responsibility to call plays to maximize the strengths and minimize the weaknesses... BORGES REFUSES TO DO THIS.
Yes it is Borges fault... Devin does many things well... the same way that Denard did... but Borges is determined to slam Fitz into a Line that is not over powering.
MANBALL only worked back in the day because everyone was doing it and Michigan just plain had better players. Even then, at that time if someone was averaging 28 pts per game then the offense was elite. Teams are scori g 40pts per game now like its nothing... WELCOME TO 2013
This is almost turning into the way RR put Threet in a spread offense and refused to adjust his strategy to the players he had.
No... this is exactly like that
There were actually good reasons for trying it with Threet, as RR was trying to install a new system that would require linemen to learn, over time, how to do new things, and there was no certainty that Threet (or Sheridan) could do much of anything. Here we have a QB who is GREAT at many things, and all the OC has to do is to tell him to change the play from a run up the middle whenever the opposing team has more than 8 in the box. He has him running up the middle with 11 in the box. That can't work (and if there was any doubt, that conclusion is certainly reinforced by abundant empirical evidence).
I agree to an extent, save for the fact they at least some of the turnover issues for Gardner come from the crappy line play either allowing pressure or putting him in obvious passing situations that naturally increase the risk of bad passes.
Correct of somehow rectify Gardner's turnovers you say, that would seem to fall mostly on the shoulders of the QB coach.
We have a redshirt Junior QB who had a really good 5 game stretch last year with only part of his time spent in practice as a QB. Then he has an entire offseason where he is QB 1, the QB coach can work with him and coach him up and what has happened. His numbers have actually gotten worse.
His completion % is down slightly (59.5 to 58.9), his YPA are down slightly (9.7 to 8.7), in 6 games he has as many passing TD's as he did in his 5 games last year and his interceptions have doubled. Not to mention the average pass defense ranking for those 5 teams last year (not a true measure of ability but closest I could get) was 48, while this years 6 opponents is 68.
Where does all the blame lie, I don't know, but there seem to be a lot of questions about Borges right now, so please stop acting like he had done nothing wrong and the questions/critisicm are unfounded.
Are almost always on 3rd and long... why are thwy always in third and long? I think the issue of trying to play man ball every first down had been discussed.
Point blank... if u try to make devin into chad henne there will be bad results... let himbe devin and good things happen.
Moral to the story... scrap man ball and adapt the spread concepts... running and passing
This was a MASSIVELY epic coaching fail.
The end of the second to last drive was a clinic in how not to coach/call plays. As you point out, Michigan had scored on all three of their last drives AND had easily driven down the field. Your QB hadn't turned the ball over the entire second half. So you keep your foot on the pedal, right??? No, that would be silly. Instead, you completely quit trying to win in order to give the other team a sporting chance. How do you do this? You call three straight running plays into the line by your running back who's averaging about 1 yard a carry. You throw in a delay of game penalty to lose another 5 yards. Then, you pass on a 40% chance on a sure win for a 15 net yard punt.
That gives the other team a chance to go on their miracle drive.
There was more of the same in the OT's but that was just icing on the cake.
This game reminds me of the Michigan-Colorado Hail Mary game. Michigan was soundly beating Colorado and then simply quit playing. I was at the stadium and I remember realizing BEFORE Colorado made their huge comeback that Michigan had quit playing and was trying to give the game away. They succeeded.
Hopefully, Hoke and company can learn from this debacle. I'm not optimistic.
Yes a bit like Colorado but also a bit like Henne (a freshman QB) to an established top flight WR Braylon, except in reverse. And instead of just 1 bomb in any specific drive, there were 2 back to back. That sure sucked... the probablility of that also was very low but it happened. 6-0 or 5-1 the same problems are there, I guess it would have just been another week of nervously laughing off the inability to have a OL that remotely resembles anything Big 10 caliber and a RB crew who suffers from it.
I also was frustrated about the runs, but it's not quite as bad as it's made out to be. DG has been a turnover machine outside of last week. Sure, he looked much better in the 2nd half, but it's not like airing it out with DG is a no-brainer. I'm hoping that's Borges' mindset; it's the only rational reason to be so fixated on the run.
Also, since I don't wanna start a new thread for it (or do I...), does Michigan ever run screens? Of course Borges hates bubble screens, but there are plenty of screens run by NFL offenses. Hell, Carr's offenses had lots of screens. There was something I believe the announcers called an inside screen in the PSU game, but that involved Funchess getting the ball and going through tons of traffic right up the middle. No idea why you'd use him there and not a back.
as I pointed out, DG hadn't turned the ball over a single time in the second half. And running Fitz into the line 3 times is basically a guaranteed failure - especially when the other team knows it's coming. What if DG does roll out and runs or passes? What's the likeliest worst outcome if the play is designed appropriately? Maybe there's a fumble (which can happen with Fitz as well) or a pick downfield. That likely would net as many yards as the 15 yard punt, maybe more. And there's a high likelihood of an easy FG attempt, TD or running out the clock with first downs. There's major upside with almost no downside with an aggressive strategy.
If they were ALREADY in easy FG range, then a conservative strategy might have made sense.
I haven't analyzed the math but it appears at first glance that the math strongly favors an attempt at actually gaining yards at the point in the game.
You're mostly preaching to the choir lol. I thought they should have taken the risk. I certainly didn't like the fact of taking a 40-yard field goal without even trying to make it easier on Gibbons. But still, most people are blowing it out of a proportion. Nobody's going to give Gardner an award for going a whole half without turning it over.
Almost all of Devins turnovers have been on 3rd and long this season... Not first down when checking down is an option.
RUNNING THE ball every first down from under center is 100% of the reason why they end up in 3rd and long so often.... so yes... the turnovers are largely BORGESS FAULT...
Well that and the Michigan fan bases fault... after all... it was the fan base that was hell bent on going back to stone age of I formation football.
Would be nice to get guys moving and throw a pass to a RB one time as well (screen or not)
I don't understand why we didn't kick the field goal at the end of regulation. We put them back 15 yards with that punt. Did they really think 15 yards would make the touchdown that much more difficult with less than a minute to play without timeouts?
The yards per rush is simply unacceptable. I don't care how bad you are, how bad the line is, how bad the coaching is etc. I don't care of care bears make up the offensive line or anorexic 100 pound women...even then you better be getting at least 3ypc. I'm not as quick to throw the blame around on anyone specific because hell I just don' t konw if it is one thing, if it's everything or what...but it's just not conceivable to have so few yards per rush.
Also I'm not sure what the big deal is with the DOG if by the time it happened Hoke knew he was gong to punt and it sounds like he did by the time it was called...so what is the big deal?
Now if he was set on kicking a FG and that threw them out of range...completely different story.
The DOG was on 3rd down, with a TO in hand. I'm not sure many coaches purposesly take a DOG on 3rd down to set up a punt.
Christ your upper body is huge
that dude is a monster.
Huge upper body guy, do you have any eligibility left?
is all sorts of awesome. Well done, sir.
Well played, sir
Needs more tires.
Just curious, do you have any comments on playing to the field goal in OT for the win with the running into a wall of defenders vs going for the TD or at least better field position for the field goal with some pass or something else?
that might be hard to tell from the numbers only, but math on this point would be very interseting. live, i think we all figured we were fighting the odds rather than trying to put them in our favor.
that question, Yes, go for TD's in OT everytime. A field goal in OT is like admitting failure. When the pros play to win on field goals, it's because they have money kickers. You shouldn't position to kick a field goal unless it's virtually an extra point.
Here's the difference in thinking as it related to the final seconds of playcalling. PSU makes an all-out bid to try and score and succeeds with a series of heroic catches, leaving Michigan time on the clock to come down an attempt a field goal, which, when struck to me, looked good. I was shocked that it fell short.
But, why wasn't the same mentality used to get into field goal position, an aggressive mindset used when Michigan held the hammer with a walk-off score. Score a TD and save a field goal try as your backup plan. When you fear you will lose the ball, when you fear you might make a mistake, you tend to make them. When you play with calculated abandon, seeking to make plays because you aren't afraid of the consequences of not making them, you frequently succeed.
I just didn't understand the thinking. I mean PSU goes for it on fourth and one with a run play, and they throw it in the endzone for a TD and get a PI call that sets up the game-winner. Why didn't Michigan try a fade to Funchess on first down after the Robinson TO?
Bitch about Lloydball all you want, but when Michigan beat Penn State in OT under Lloyd, they scored TDs to win, not field goals.
Aggressors win in football most of the time. Playing not to lose, cost Michigan a loss on Saturday.
When the other team goes first and gets zero points, I would wager 90% of coaches are playing for a field goal, or at least will go with completely safe plays and protect the option of a field goal. Our team just happens to suck at running the safe plays, and the coaches didn't exactly try to find other non-throwing plays besides I-form up the gut. Also, on the second time that happened, we actually DID throw it, to set up the Gallon non-first down, which I was frankly shocked by. At that point I would guess close to 99% of coaches would have done the same exact thing. Unless you have kicking issues, which we didn't really have any signs of, you expect to make a 33 yarder to win.
I agree you play for the FG but you usually try to get 8-10 yards to set up an "easier" FG. And by doing plays that work during a game, rather than ones that failed all game you set up a chance for breaking one for longer than 10 yards and/or having the 3 in total make >10 yards so you can keep driving. It was the play calling that has us all going crazy. Fitz could do nothing all day behind that line. Unless Devin was hurt why you dont utilize your most dangerous weapon in OT is beyond me. Even if its a bootleg. But the read option was fine all 2nd half and it was totally abandoned at end of 2nd half and OT.
Playing for a FG is one thing. Calling plays that have been almost completely unsuccessful all game long, which will result in a 40+ yard FG on the road is not the best call.