Greetings once again, dear reader! I have missed each and every both of you. It’s good to be back.

Some years we stroll into the new season bright-eyed and bushy-tailed, eager for another jaunty season of sporting athletic matches with our familiar regional foot-ball opponents. This year, we’re feeling a little more like Robin Williams emerging from the Jumanji board, or Ernest Shackleton wandering into a bar on South Georgia Island saying “IT’S A LITTLE BRISK OUT THERE, FELLAS.”

What season is it?

This was a rough offseason, both because of the disappointing way the 2017 season ended, and because of the Big Ten Conference’s apparent desire to destroy our faith in the decency of humanity. But the 2018 football season holds great promise, and schools have to be running low on cartoonishly evil schemes by now. So let us begin anew.

I’m sure both of you know this already, but each week during the season we take a look at how each of Michigan’s opponents fared, and what that tells us about Michigan, the road ahead, and the general nature of space and time. This is part one of our two-part preview. Ready? No? Too bad. You’re stuck here, at least until the dice read 5 or 8.

Notre Dame

Last year: 10-3, Beat LSU in the Citrus Bowl 21-17

Recap: I’m assuming you all did the required reading over the summer, so I don’t have to spend any time discussing Notre Dame’s 2017 season or the expectations for 2018. No? Dangit people. Not an auspicious start.

The nutshell version: Notre Dame started off 8-1, with only a lone one-point loss to eventual national runner-up Georgia blemishing their record, and were in fine position to make the CFB Playoff. Then they lost 41-8 to the Miami Fightin’ Turnover Chains and 38-20 to the Stanford Fightin’ Blockchain Technology Startups, and finished the season a respectable but disappointing 10-3.

When last we saw them: Certain rules of math and logic would dictate that, because there were previous games, and because those games took place at non-overlapping intervals, there therefore must be a most recent previous game. But that is not the case here. Michigan and Notre Dame played a series of games, many of which involved Michigan quarterbacks doing hilarious things to Charlie Weis and/or Brian Kelly… and then they just stopped playing. No need to delve much further.

…

I SAID NO DELVING.

This team is as frightening as:

Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Notre Dame returns the majority of a defense that was very good last year.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Brandon Wimbush struggles to, as the kids say, throw the football to his teammates in a repeatable fashion. He completed less than 50% of his passes on the year, and didn’t crack 53% in his final eight games. And given that Notre Dame loses Josh Adams and two Top-10 NFL Draft pick offensive linemen (and with running back Dexter Williams reportedly suspended), Notre Dame may have to rely more on his arm. And early fall camp reviews are not great.

When they play Michigan: Maybe Don Brown will have spent some time over the previous nine months thinking of something fun and interesting. Who knows. Could happen.

First game: vs. Michigan, 7:30 p.m., NBC

AFTER THE JUMP: Several more teams... but you'll never guess which ones.

 

 

Western Michigan

Last year: 6-6 (4-4 MAC), ::Werner Herzog voice:: they made no bowl game despite winning six games because the Universe is a cold and uncaring place that feeds the weak to the marginally less weak until there is nothing left to feed even the strong.

Recap: In their first season without PJ Fleck (and, more importantly, without Corey Davis and Zach Terrell and Taylor Moton), Western was mediocre but not terrible. Their best win was over Buffalo in a game they won 71-68 in seven overtimes. Seriously. Look it up. Okay, FINE, I’ll look it up for you. Here it is:

I suggest you skip forward to the 4th overtime, where both teams complete two point conversions with reverses in which the quarterback ends up in a pass pattern. #MACtion ain’t what it used to be, but every now and then, it reminds us.

Anyway, Western was meh, and will probably be meh again this year. One interesting quirk, though: of their 12 games, S&P+ projects them with between a 38% and 63% likelihood to win in ten of those games. That works out to less than a six point spread either way. They end the season with nine consecutive toss-up games. That’s nuts.

The two Western games in which there is a definite favorite? They’re a 42-point favorite over Delaware State, and a 25-point dog to Michigan.

When last we saw them: Michigan is 6-0 all time vs. Western, and has beaten them in their four modern matchups by between 17 and 24 points each time. Which, /waves tiny flag. But the last matchup portended some of the issues that would plague the Hoke Era:

This was on the heels of the 2009 opener, a 31-7 win, in which we realized that the offense could be pretty good but failed to realize that the pass defense was gon’ suuuuuuck.

This team is as frightening as: Unexpected and superfluous reminders of the Hoke and Rodriguez Eras. I mean, it doesn’t ACTUALLY hurt anything, but what good can come of it? Fear Level = 2.5

Michigan should worry about: WMU quarterback Jon Wassink completed 70% of his passes at 8.6 yards per attempt with 14 touchdowns and only 2 picks in his last six games before missing the last 4 games with a shoulder injury.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: …but in his two games against actual competition (USC (YTUSC) and Michigan State), Wassink was 22 of 48 for 146 yards (3.0 YPA), with no touchdowns and two picks. And, if forced to rate Michigan’s defense, I would probably compare it more to the USC/MSU bucket than the Ball State/Wagner/Buffalo bucket.

When they play Michigan: A nice, relaxing Saturday at the Big House.

First game: vs. Syracuse, 6:00 p.m. Friday, CBSSN

 

SMU

Last year: 7-6 (4-4 AAC), Lost to Louisiana Tech in the Frisco Bowl 51-10.

Recap: This one isn’t terribly complicated. If you believe Bill Connelly (and, like, you probably should), SMU had the 11th best offense in the country last year. And the 12th worst defense. Think “Crappy Conference 2010 Michigan” and you aren’t far off, complete with rivalry losses*, a late season slide (they were 6-2 entering November) and the bowl game shellacking.

*Believe it or not, SMU’s Wikipedia page lists a number of SMU football rivals. They play TCU for an Iron Skillet, Navy for the Gansz Trophy, and Houston for, uh… it doesn’t say, so presumably a large hat of some kind. Possibly containing chili. Or cattle.

Today’s secret ingredient is
/swish
/swoosh
/swish
CHICKEN FRIED MEEEEEEEEEEEATS
/Intense stare

When last we saw them: Michigan has only played SMU once. Bump Elliot’s 1963 team defeated a Hayden Fry (YTHF)-led squad 27-16. According to SMU, this game led Lee Iacocca to name Ford’s newest sports car the “Mustang.” This is almost certainly untrue, but it does not qualify as the least dishonest moment in SMU football history, so we’ll let it slide.

This team is as frightening as: The Pony Express. Only the ponies are all mini-sized. Fear Level = 5,000 Candles in the Wind.

Michigan should worry about: Sonny Dykes is a bona fide Air Raid OG.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Eric Dickerson ain’t taking a Trans-Am from Texas A&M and then reneging at the last minute to walk through that door.

When they play Michigan: I rarely make actual score-based predictions here, but Michigan doesn’t win this game by any margin between 11 and 25 points. Either SMU’s offense works, and this becomes a shootout of sorts, or it doesn’t, and Michigan wins by a billion.

First game: at North Texas, 7:30 p.m., no TV as of yet.

 

Nebraska

Nebraska wears red because of the distinctive color of their soil, as can be seen in this satellite image

Last year: 4-8 (3-6 B1G), no bowl game.

Recap: Yikes. Nebraska finished 2017 with a 4-8 record, and it isn’t clear whether the “4” or the “8” was more disturbing. Nebraska’s wins were over Arkansas State, Rutgers, Illinois, and Purdue. Their eight losses included losses to Northern Illinois at home, by 21 to Wisconsin at home (which, okay), by 42 to Ohio State at home (which, I guess that happens), by 33 at Minnesota (which, fellas?) and by 42 at home to Iowa (which, /pokes with stick). They surrendered 54+ points in four of their final six games on the way to the #110-ranked S&P+ defense. Say what you want about Tanner Lee – and, boy, can I say some stuff about Tanner Lee – but he was probably the best thing Nebraska had going.

Also Tanner Lee is gone.

When last we saw them: Michigan and Nebraska haven’t faced off since 2013, which means Michigan didn’t play Nebraska once during the Mike Riley Era. And… oh, sweet merciful Zeus, the Mike Riley Era. After going 57-24 under Bo Pelini, they brought in Riley for the sole reason that he was less of a prick than Pelini (which, if we’re looking around the conference… I’m not sayin’ there may be real value in that… I’m just sayin’). The Huskers went 19-19 in three seasons under Riley, though it may have been unfair to expect Riley to live up to the standards of Nebraska’s greatest coach: Dr. Langdon Frothingham.

Dr. Frothingham was Nebraska’s first coach, and still holds the best winning percentage in school history: 100%. The 1890 Nebraska Old Gold Knights finished 2-0, outscoring the YMCA of Omaha and Doane University by a combined 28-0. According to the MGoBlog Research Department, Frothingham took a unique path to the head coaching gig:

1890 was the first year that Nebraska fielded a football team. Dr. Langdon Frothingham (April 21, 1866 – July 29, 1935), a veterinary physician and graduate of Harvard University who had been hired to the faculty in 1889 to teach physiology, agriculture, and bacteriology at Nebraska, was named as coach of Nebraska's first football team, mainly because he had brought a football with him.

It was still a hiring process that made more sense than bringing in Mike Riley. And with better results.

Above: Dr. Langdon Frothingham disputes a call against the YMCA of Omaha.

This team is as frightening as: Two words: ulnar nerve. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: I got this far, including an entire discussion about coaching changes, without mentioning Scott Frost. So… Scott Frost is Nebraska’s new coach. And he led UCF to an undefeated season that, had it happened to Alabama 60 years ago, would have the Tide claiming at least two additional national titles, and possibly an Oscar for Best Supporting Actor in a Football Role.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Nebraska will be starting either a true freshman or a redshirt freshman (or a walk-on of some flavor) in their conference game and their first road game, in their first year in a new system, against possibly the best Don Brown defense Don Brown has ever Don Brown’d. Plus, I’ve met Dr. Langdon Frothingham. Dr. Langdon Frothingham is a friend of mine. And you, Scott Frost, are no Dr. Langdon Frothingham. You didn’t even bring your own football.

When they play Michigan: did you know scott frost used to play football at nebraska, and that he did so at a time when both michigan and nebraska were very good

First game: vs. Akron, 8:00 p.m., FOX

Northwestern

Last year: 10-3 (7-2), Beat Kentucky in the Music City Bowl 24-23

You did it, guys.

Recap: Northwestern won ten games, despite being – and I mean this in a positive way – not very good at football.

Okay, that’s not entirely fair. They were decent on defense, and very decent against the run. But nothing about this team screamed “we are good at this,” despite winning their last seven conference games and entering 2018 with the longest active win streak in the country at 8 games. Part of it was their schedule, but a lot of it was their list of opponents. The level of competition also played a role.

When last we saw them: Michigan hasn’t played Northwestern since 2015, when they beat the #13 Wildcats 38-0. Michigan took a 7-0 lead on the opening kickoff, and went into halftime with a 28-0 lead. Northwestern was never competitive, putting up only 168 total yards.

Michigan has won 10 of the last 11 games, with the sole loss being the Fandom Endurance III game in 2008. Between that, the Roundtree Deflection game, the Dileo Power Slide game, and the #M00N game, Michigan and Northwestern have played some truly stupid football in the last decade.

This team is as frightening as: The prospect of another stupid Michigan/Northwestern game Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Northwestern’s front 7 should be pretty good again; DE Joe Gaziano and LB Paddy Fisher are players.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Northwestern has finished with either double-digit wins or at least six losses for the last 8 years in a row. And there’s no way Northwestern gets to 10 wins with this schedule. So, Michigan just has to be one of the six best teams on Northwestern’s schedule. Which means they have to be better than, like, Duke. I’m pretty sure that’s how this works, anyway.

When they play Michigan: I will probably bring this up a little bit.

First game: at Purdue, 8:00 p.m. Thursday, ESPN

Maryland

Last year: 4-8 (2-7 B1G), no bowl game.

Recap: Jordan McNair was 19 years old.

We know college football is a dangerous, violent, physical game. But we enjoy and support it in spite of that fact – and indeed, sometimes because of that fact. Many of us struggle with the contradiction inherent in caring so much for what these young adults do, while simultaneously knowing and setting aside what it may be costing them. They play with reckless abandon and love for a sport that, for some, will leave them irreparably broken. We know this. This isn’t a moral judgment (though perhaps it should be), but rather an acknowledgement of the table stakes for this thing that we love. It should eat at you a little bit. I know it eats at me. But there is a level of risk and hurt that is simply unavoidable.

But, in light of all that, how can you justify adding to that risk? How can you justify looking at these young men and not doing everything in your power to contain that danger wherever possible? And if you are a coach, how can you not look at these young men as a charge to hold sacred, and to honor what they are trusting you with? Given the wagers they are making in body and soul, how do you not wake up every damn day asking how you can possibly tilt the scales a little further in their favor?

If reports are to be believed, Maryland didn’t. And damn them to hell for that.

Jordan McNair was 19 years old.

When last we saw them: Michigan has outscored Maryland 122-13 since Jim Harbaugh arrived, including last year’s 35-10 win. Maryland outgained Michigan in that one, but almost all of those Maryland yards came after Michigan took a 28-0 lead and DJ Durkin attempted a Sad Field Goal, missed, and attempted ANOTHER Sad Field Goal later in the quarter.

This team is as frightening as: The prospect of making lighthearted Maryland humor all year. Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: Maryland looked like an okay-to-good football team when they had Tyrrell Pigrome (who, according to canon and the MGoStyle Guide, shall for the remainder of the season be referred to only as “Piggy”) and Kasim Hill at quarterback. Both will likely be back, at least to some degree, when the season starts.

Max Bortenschlager is also back. This information is superfluous.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: 122-13.

When they play Michigan: One last reasonably comfortable fall afternoon before the schedule gets all fighty.

First game: vs. Texas (at FedEx Field), noon, FS1