9/18/2021 – Michigan 63, Northern Illinois 10 – 3-0

Fortunes change quickly in MAC (and, er, Pac-12) bodybag season. The aftermath of last week was a lot of people pointing and yelling about one half of an equation when both halves were true. The aftermath this week is a lot of people considering maybe thinking about proposing to run at the football Lucy is holding. Transitive football has been invoked.

You see, Rudy: Michigan hammered Northern Illinois like it was not there, and Northern Illinois beat Georgia Tech, and Georgia Tech was a yard and a two-point conversion away from overtime with Clemson. Therefore Michigan should be a ~53 point favorite over Clemson. It's science.

Add in Washington getting off the mat and Western Michigan beating Pitt and things get stupid fast.

I almost never share this because people overreact to it and it has no predictive value, but I CAN'T HELP IT, THIS IS THE WORLD I WANT TO LIVE IN.

SP+ top 5 if all preseason projections were taken out:
1. Michigan
2. Georgia
3. Ole Miss
4. Texas Tech
5. Florida

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 19, 2021

You probably skipped over the "no predictive value" bit as you look longingly at that football poised under the girl in the blue dress's finger. Even if you did, it's little defense. The things that are supposed to have predictive value are also inviting you to have a run. SP+ with priors—ie, Connolly's baby—has Michigan sixth. ESPN's other predictive ranking system, FPI, puts them at the same spot.

This is a far cry from rampant 7-5 predictions preseason. MVictors' "Mood" has shot up in a few short weeks:

I'm not going to tell anyone how to feel. I am merely going to suggest that you are all fools and we are doomed. Okay, yeah, Blake Corum. Okay, yeah, Ohio State's running around demoting their defensive coordinator mid-season. Okay, sure, the defense is checking in well above expectations.

A rational person would be experiencing cautious optimism at this point… if he could block out the entire recent history of Michigan football. A rational person who cannot do that would measure the potential upside of investing versus the downside and hoard all his emotional chips on the sideline. Or maybe whatever, life's for living. Let's open up the possibility of ruining a weekend again. Maybe that is your decision, if you are a fool. A person with no ability to judge risk. A straight-up innumerate weirdo.

Yes, I'm talking myself out of it.

-----------------------------------------

Even your author—high up on the list of skeptical Michigan fans and thus high up on the list of skeptics worldwide—has to admit there is a tremor in there.

You can get a sense of how much stupid your team contains even against the dregs of college football—ask FSU. Every college team has some, just waiting for the right moment to come out of its cage and do just fine in its quest to make heads explode and surrender cobras bloom like so many wildflowers. Nobody is immune; some teams veritably drip with it. Many Michigan teams of recent vintage have.

To date, Michigan's level of stupid is shockingly minimal. There have not been guys handwavingly wide open. The running backs are perfect metronomes. They haven't turned the ball over. The punts are fair caught. The kicks go in the endzone. The offensive line has been creepily efficient at preventing opponents from blitzing into the backfield.

This is coming off a season so rife with stupid stuff that the NIU quarterback, who had 18 passing yards for most of this game, had 323 in his Michigan State incarnation, more than half of them to a guy who was also in a famous Vine. They deep-sixed the defensive staff and made Sherrone Moore the OL coach, displacing Ed Warinner with a guy who'd never officially coached the spot. One of the new, touted defensive coaches left for Buffalo a couple weeks into his Michigan career.

In short, this makes no sense. No amount of offseason turnover should result in this drastic reduction in stupid, let alone the seemingly chaotic turnover of 2021. So I don't trust it. But I am, like, looking at it. I look at it and I see it and I wait to be informed I am on an acid trip and the squirrel is actually a fox.

I look at it, and don't trust it, but it is there. Resolving into something. Maybe this is a weird season and Michigan will benefit. In a year more reminiscent of chaos seasons of 15 years ago than the usual Alabama trudge of late, Michigan looks remarkably unchaotic. For now. I'm still squinting.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

hey let's make pancakes [Campredon]

you're the man now, dog

 

#1 Your Offensive Line. I mean, four different backs averaged at least 6.2 YPC. McNamara was not sacked and had eons of time to hit Johnson on the long TD. OL got out in front of Henning's edge plays, and obliterated everyone on the interior.

#2 Hassan Haskins, Blake Corum, and Donovan Edwards. Combine for 267 yards on 30 carries and you might make it up in this section. IMO Corum remains a nose or six ahead of the pack but the ability to keep everyone fresh and not make anyone in particular Chris Perry in that one MSU game is hugely valuable. 3 points each! Sure!

#3 AJ Henning. 70 yards in punt returns and two explosive offensive touches slides him in front of a couple other candidates.

Honorable mention: There was so much rotation on the D that nobody got a ton of time to stand out, but both Nikhai Hill-Green and Josh Ross came up with sticks; Gemon Green grabbed a deflection; Dax Hill had a drive-ending PBU. Cornelius Johnson's double move was rad.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

16: The OL (#1 Wash, #1 NIU)
11: Blake Corum (#2 WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU)
8: Ronnie Bell (#1 WMU)
7: Hassan Haskins (HM WMU, T3 Wash, T2 NIU)
6: Aidan Hutchinson (HM WMU, #2 Wash)
4: AJ Henning (HM WMU, #3 NIU), Dax Hill (#3 WMU, HM NIU)
3: Donovan Edwards(T2 NIU).
2: Josh Ross (HM Wash, HM NIU)
1: Andrew Vastardis (HM WMU),Mike Sainristil (HM WMU), Brad Robbins (HM Wash), Jake Moody (HM Wash), Mazi Smith (HM Wash), Nikhai Hill-Green(HM NIU), Gemon Green(HM NIU), Cornelius Johnson(HM NIU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Michigan executes a two-minute drill with one 87-yard pass to Cornelius Johnson, adding another data point to the "Cade McNamara has a deep ball" column.

Honorable mention: More or less any running play. Michigan forces a turnover.

​MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

The one drive NIU had in the competitive section of the football game.

Honorable mention: Uh, Henning let a couple punts bounce? The holding call that brought back Franklin's touchdown.

[After THE JUMP: more SP+ madness]

OFFENSE

Ask again later. We knew going into this one that the NIU defense was bereft of talent, played pillow-soft coverage, and had been paved by lesser lights. This is going to be one of the worst defenses in the country. The things GT did are the things Michigan was going to do. This from the first drive was more or less lights out. Watch #86 Schoonmaker to the bottom of the line completely wipe a purported DE:

He had a good game but the opponent had a ton to do with that.

Caveats aside, there are some things you can take from the game. Let's sift some sand:

zip zap [Campredon]

Blake Corum, yeehaw. There were three or four runs in this game where I involuntarily cocked an eyebrow: Corum slipping through two ankle tackles and keeping his balance, Corum patiently waiting for a gap and then exploding into it, Corum finding a cutback lane on a play designed well away from his eventual destination.

THIS is poetry in motion.
NIU actually has a good defense called and the LB scrapes over the top to get in position. But the blocking is perfectly executed. And Blake Corum. My goodness. Puts his hand down aftrr initial contact, then explodes. pic.twitter.com/7nGVZbOOm5

— Due# (@JDue51) September 19, 2021

He WOOPED a linebacker at the line of scrimmage in a hole that didn't look like it had enough room for that sort of thing. And yeah dart is on the table:

Blake Corum is FAST pic.twitter.com/5CzMxg8bdh

— Unnecessary Roughness (@UnnecRoughness) September 18, 2021

Corum came in 3rd nationally in PFF RB grade this week, FWIW.

AJ Henning is fast. Henning got the punt return job in this game and looks set to keep it since when he lets a ball bounce sometimes he takes it back 30 yards. (Still advisable to catch the ball.) Henning was two ankle tackles away from long touchdowns on his two offensive touches and Michigan should probably be crafting ways to get that touch count up to 4 or 5.

AJ Henning's bro is Andrew Vastardis. Vastardis displayed impressive mobility in space on both of Henning's touches. Here he gets accidentally chipped by a DL and that's probably the only thing separating him from enough of a block on a safety that Henning goes the distance:

On the jet he pulled from C and got in a thump:

He's been impressive.

[Campredon]

Donovan Edwards is also fast. The pause here and then the burst:

Normally we'd be talking about how to get him more carries but from where?

Another day almost totally lacking in OL mental issues. Seth with have to confirm this but I'm not sure we've seen a DL or LB get a free pass to the backfield more than a couple times this year. Even good OLs will occasionally have a mental biff that gives a front seven player a free TFL. Here NIU got two, one of which was a freebie when McNamara fumbled the snap. Washington had three but two of those were from secondary members on bubble/swing screens. WMU had two; one was from a corner. That's one front-seven TFL per game so far. We've also seen approximately no pass rushers come in clean.

Despite being very bad, these defenses are stunting and blitzing and doing things that they hope will confuse Michigan's OL on a regular basis. Bad defenses might do it less as they try to get the basics down, but everyone has tricks up their sleeve. Michigan has not been vulnerable to them yet. Here's Keegan, one of the greener guys playing for Michigan, calmly identifying a LB blitz and dealing with it:

LG #77

A passing game. Another game with only 11 throws from the starting QB, so data remains thin on the ground. This was more encouraging, obviously, with McNamara looking confident and polished. There was the TD, of course, but he also hit a TE seam:

Big difference between this D and Washington.

Meanwhile in JJ McCarthy: he looked very viable as an occasional runner on the keep he got inside the five, and there is a certain je ne sais quoi about the ball he throws.

DEFENSE

[Campredon]

Possibly meaningful result given the opposition. The one thing NIU was doing really well over the first two weeks was run the ball, particularly with Harrison Waylee. Waylee got banged up and left early, returning a bit later. That limited his impact somewhat; even so 34 yards on 12 carries (2.8 per) might mean something. His compatriots didn't do much better.

Michigan did this without leaning too heavily on its starters. Michigan substituted rampantly even in the first half: Jenkins, Jeter, Whittley, Mullings, Colson, Morris, and Harrell all got significant numbers of snaps, with no or little discernible dropoff.

File in the same bin the OL is in. Aside from one obvious coverage bust—probably Josh Ross not following the TE in the flat—on the NIU FG drive Michigan got through another game without seemingly like they were higgeldy-piggeldy because they're implementing a new system.

The limitations of the NIU passing game factor in here, but I mean… Rocky Lombardi seems about as likely to hit a 30 yard pass as a 7 yard one so unless the NIU gameplan was real bad I'd imagine the lack of any shots anywhere beyond the sticks was at least partially a function of the defense disguising what they were doing and forcing checkdowns. I'm still concerned about what's going to happen when Michigan runs into some top-shelf wide receivers, something that might not happen until… Penn State?

Lombardi did Lombardi things. He dropped down the MAC level because he's not at all accurate, and he missed a half dozen relatively easy throws that could have set up third and short. This was a relief in the moment but makes discussion of the pass defense difficult because there wasn't a whole lot to go on, coverage wise, outside of a few well-defended slants.

Harrell's got to check his six some. He seems to be too eager to get after the running back; the early Lombardi keeper on the FG drive was an easy read with Harrell turning his hips and flying into a blocker at high speed.

SPECIAL TEAMS

[Campredon]

All right yeah you can keep doing this. AJ Henning has the job:

If M can take punt return back to a strength this could be the top special teams unit in the country.

Congratulations Brad Robbins. I think 0/0 is infinity so congrats on the best punting game in the history of football.

Boo! One point to the crowd for vociferously booing NIU fair catches on kickoffs.

MISCELLANEOUS

On the move up. Michigan's surge in the ranking systems is unusual. Here's a list of risers and fallers:

Teams whose ratings have changed the most (good or bad) since the preseason projections. There's a chance OU still runs away with the Big 12, but with K-State & Tech trending up, we've got SEVEN teams between 22nd and 48th. Odds of a logjam of 6-3 teams tied for first: >0%. pic.twitter.com/f9rfIe4r70

— Bill Connelly (@ESPN_BillC) September 19, 2021

Note that there's a huge gap between Michigan's preseason rating and anyone else on this list. The #2 team here by preseason expectations, Kansas State, ranked 61st. Michigan was 17th. It's a lot harder to exceed expectations by that much when your expectations are already pretty high.

What are we doing here? You're NIU, you've given up 50 points to Wyoming, it's 7-0 against Michigan in the first quarter and you've got a fourth and two from the three. Go for it! You're not here to put up a first quarter Sad Field Goal (TM Dave). I mean, you are. But you shouldn't.

I was going to have a second rant after NIU pulled out the ol' Do A Bunch Of Motion And Then Call Timeout play, but they went for it afterwards.

HERE

Alex's game column:

The only other notable storyline in this game was Michigan's use of a laundry list of reserves. JJ McCarthy took over at halftime with the rest of the first string offense. He went 4/6 for 42 yards. The rest of the second string offense came on shortly after, including a backup offensive line of Karsen Barnhart, Chuck Filiaga, Greg Crippen, Reece Atteberry, and Trente Jones (left to right). Donovan Edwards had 8 carries for 86 yards and two scores. Christian Dixon had one catch for seven yards. On defense, such names as Makari Paige, Michael Barrett, Rod Moore, Taylor Upshaw, George Johnson III, and Caden Kolesar got extensive time, before even more obscure walk-ons took the field in the fourth quarter.

Best and Worst:

And yet, after approximately one quarter of the college football season has been played, Michigan is currently 6th in the nation in yards per play, sporting an impressive 7.88 average.  That ranks ahead of of the likes of Florida, Oklahoma, and Alabama.  And they’re 4th in the nation in plays of more than 40 yards and #1 in plays over 50 yards, 60, 70, and 80 yards.  And they’re only 3 yards to Johnson away from being #1 in plays over 90 yards.  By any metric, this is one of the most explosive offenses in America, highlighted this week by Michigan scoring touchdowns on their first 9 (!) drives of the game, 8 of them on the ground.

Anatomy of the double move. State of our open threads.

ELSEWHERE

Bill Connelly put out a bold predictions post that reads like his version of our RAW TAKE podcast segment (selections: FSU is going 2-10, Washington will win the Pac-12, etc.). Michigan shows up in an assertion that two non-OSU Big Ten teams will make the playoff:

The Buckeyes still enjoy the highest SP+ ranking in the conference and have a 9% chance of finishing 11-1 or better.

Odds of finishing 11-1 or better, per SP+:
Penn State 20.1%
Michigan 19.4%
Iowa 13.6%
Ohio State 9.0%
Wisconsin 4.3%
Maryland 0.9%
Michigan State 0.8%
Minnesota 0.6%

The Buckeyes clearly are still good. But while all of these rousing stories were taking shape on Saturday, the four-time defending Big Ten champions were seriously contemplating losing to Tulsa. … But after allowing 6.9 yards per play to Oregon, the Buckeyes allowed 6.1 against Tulsa. They have slid to 39th in defensive SP+, and with a large number of strong (read: better than Tulsa) teams remaining on the slate, SP+ indeed gives them only a 9% chance of getting to 11-1. Those are almost equal to their odds of going 7-5 or worse.

Also, we've got a potentially historic version of GopherWatch this year as UConn competes with a couple of teams from the 1920s to be the worst D-1 school ever.

Also in (slightly) historic:

Saturday's game at Michigan is the first time since the 2006 Louisville game that Rutgers is involved in a matchup of teams 3-0 or better.

— Chris Fallica (@chrisfallica) September 20, 2021

Maize and Blue Nation. Maize and Brew. MVictors on Jerry Green.