Feed Weezy: Moe Wagner's Impact On M's Offense
Wagner is the rare C that can attack off the dribble. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]
After playing all of 22 minutes through Michigan's first four games, freshman center Moe Wagner poured in 34 points on 21 shot equivalents over the last three contests—incidentally, all Michigan wins. He's gone from the #4 center to the #2 center in the span of a week; with how he's playing on offense, John Beilein may have no choice but to start him before long.
That's because Wagner's offensive skill level is leaps and bounds better than any other center on the roster in a way that opens up the entire offense. That impact was on full display last night against NC State.
Let's start with a look at his dunk; Wagner holds the ball at the top of the key, Michigan runs action like he's going to hand it off to Caris LeVert, and instead he goes off the dribble to posterize a guy:
Wagner's understanding of how the defense will react to this is so impressive for a freshman. He goes to the hoop the moment his defender, Beejay Anya, takes a false step towards LeVert; he also seems acutely aware that the weakside defender took a step out of the paint—he doesn't hesitate to go for the dunk because of the room that provided him.
Speaking of room, check out the spacing a skilled center provides in a John Beilein offense:
With two very dangerous shooters on the other side of the floor and Wagner operating on the perimeter, five NC State defenders have a combined one foot in the paint. This is also quite helpful when running the pick-and-roll, and Wagner did a great job as the roll man last night.
[Hit THE JUMP to see Wagner's impressive instincts on the high screen.]
Slipping a screen takes anticipation and timing; Wagner seems to have that down, as he got two layups last night after showing a high screen before quickly diving to the hoop. While his first bucket, off a pass from Zak Irvin, featured his most difficult finish, his and-one layup in the second half was arguably his most impressive play on the night. With nobody playing inside for Michigan, NC State didn't have anyone inside to prevent Wagner slipping the screen for a layup:
A few things stand out on this one:
- Holy crap, that spacing.
- Wagner times the slip perfectly, squaring up and then diving to the hoop just before contact. Wagner's defender, Anya (#21), has already committed to the hard hedge at that point, and LeVert's defender is following LeVert and can't make a play on Wagner—even if he somehow recognized this, he'd be hard-pressed to do anything about it, and instead he has to rely on his weakside help.
- Wagner makes life easy on LeVert by facing him and providing a big target to hit. Part of the reason LeVert has so much room to fit in this pass is that...
- Wagner is once again very aware of the weakside help, so when he rolls to the lane he seals off the recovering defender. This opened up the passing lane, prevented the defender from providing any real resistence to the reverse layup—another thing Wagner has shown he can do quite well—and ultimately resulted in an and-one opportunity.
One more example also features Wagner's insticts around the basket.
With LeVert drawing a justifiable amount of attention on the perimeter, Wagner sees the open lane to the hoop and again gives the passer an easy target to hit. When Wagner gets the pass, he could easily try to go up and draw a foul on Anya, who's late to recover but still provides a serious shot-blocking threat; instead, Wagner seamlessly goes from a pump fake to a pivot and an uncontested layup.
Wagner still has plenty of work to do, especially on defense; he's not making a major impact on the boards, he has his fair share of freshman moments, and his elevated foul rate (6.6/40 mins) is going to put a hard cap on his minutes until he learns to better avoid those. He also turned the ball over twice last night trying to work in tight spaces off the dribble.
That said, none of Michigan's other centers are impact defenders, and Wagner's clear advantage in skill is going to separate him from the pack sooner or later. He's already in the same range as Ricky Doyle in field goal percentage (71% for Wagner, 67% for Doyle), and Wagner's turnover rate is less than half of Doyle's—I probably don't need to point out that Wagner has far superior hands.
Wagner's quick rise shouldn't end with him as the #2 center, even if his defensive shortcomings linger all year. Michigan is a team that's going to look to outgun their opponents. Wagner gives them the best chance of doing that, and by the end of the season the competition may not be particularly close.
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:09 PM ^
"It's pronounced VAH-GNER" on the front?
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:56 PM ^
I thought Mike Patrick was in general awful, I agreed with Brian's tweet that it seemed like he was on a delay. However his dedication to "Vogner" was outstanding
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:29 PM ^
I cringed when listening to the dude doing the graveyard shift on a classical music station. He was clearly not a classical music buff and just there to "do radio" because he pronounced the composer's name "Richard Wagner" in the American way instead of "Rick-hard Vogner" (which, seeing it spelled out that way, makes me chuckle in a juvenile sort of way)
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:45 PM ^
On the radio I noticed they were pronouncing it like the "r" was silent. Not sure why.
December 2nd, 2015 at 5:03 PM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:47 PM ^
As in, there are many auto dealerships in the vicinity of Jackson and Vogner.
December 3rd, 2015 at 1:08 PM ^
Does that make his nickname actually Moe Veezy?
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:13 PM ^
He is becoming someone to keep an eye on. Any attention our Center gets defensively is just going to open up our 3pt shooters. Given Beilein's ability to develop players, the more he has to work with up front the better the end result - Wagner provides plenty of skill up front.
His breaking of the press near the end was equally frightening and exhilerating!
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 7:01 PM ^
December 3rd, 2015 at 10:14 AM ^
He's got the same kind of offensive skill, energy and emotion. Of our other bigs under Beilein, only Morgan matches him in any of those areas. He's lacking the strength, but I have to think he's far ahead of the 18 year old McGary overall.
December 3rd, 2015 at 11:16 AM ^
I agree. Every time I see Wagner make one of those quick offensive moves at the elbow, foul line or near the basket, I think about McGary. Even that one pass in the second half where he pivoted at the elbow, headed toward the basket and sent a no-look pass to the corner for a 3-point shot reminded me of McGary.
And wWe didn't see McGary doing these types of things until the tournament. Wagner is already doing them. As for bringing the ball up the court, I remember that McGary said it was OK to do it as long as he didn't turn the ball over, and that during the season coach Beilein had him running a lot stairs for turning the ball over in practice. So Wagner should get ready to run some stairs.
Also, similar to when McGary started showing flashes of offensive prowess, you would see the other big men (Morgan and Horford) try to pivot at the elbow and shoot or at least try to drive. I saw Ricky Doyle try to drive once after pivoting at the elbow against NC State but he turned the ball over near the basket. I still applauded him for at least trying.
Our bigs need to be a threat no matter where they receive the ball. It forces the opponent to defend five players instead of four and it opens up the floor for the 3-point shooters.
Go Blue!!!
December 3rd, 2015 at 11:43 AM ^
18 year old McGary was 2 years out from being on our roster (he turned 20 in the summer of 2012, before he got to Michigan), so yeah.
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:13 PM ^
...margin. He should get as many minutes as possible so that he can develop as fast as possible. He's also entertaining!
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:18 PM ^
illegitimate child.
Jawohl!
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:31 PM ^
I call him mini-Dirk.
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:35 PM ^
Is this where it officially begins if Coach B can get Mo to the NBA in less than 4 years???
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:57 PM ^
Der-Beschleunigen-Pipeline
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:59 PM ^
I'll be pretty surprised if he's a four-year player. A 6'10" guy with that skill set will be in high demand.
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:22 PM ^
No, he is too short for the NBA, but he is making me very proud!
December 2nd, 2015 at 6:18 PM ^
Yes, way too short, way too slow, not a good shooter, not a good rebounder, bad attitude, etc. Nothing to see here NBA scouts, move along. Check back in on him during his senior season.
December 2nd, 2015 at 5:21 PM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^
I love how much emotion he brings to the game as well. He seems to be well liked and fit in with the team very well which is cool to see.
December 2nd, 2015 at 6:08 PM ^
Yeah he's got that Mitch McGary enthusiasm.
I also like his clapping, it feels very condescending.
December 3rd, 2015 at 2:02 PM ^
that's a german thing
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:40 PM ^
area under the curve this, bitch
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^
I always liked the Maize and Blue Canadian flag for Stauskas but a Maize and Blue German flag will be a challenge.
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:13 PM ^
Guess you could just use a Boca Junior flag...
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:19 PM ^
how about a maize jar of saurkraut on a blue field?
or a maize stein of bier on blue???
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:56 PM ^
We could use the flag of Berlin instead:
Make the stripes maize and the bear blue. It'd be pretty cool.
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^
This guy has what most bigs just don't, and that is an already solid game around the basket. He seems like he will get better and better, and looks comfortable out there. I can't wait to see his game develop.
December 3rd, 2015 at 12:24 AM ^
Really good hands and long flexible arms. He's the anti-Doyle there.
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:51 PM ^
Why is it that I love offensive basketball and defensive football? I am excited to see this team gel and score a ton of points!
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:56 PM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 3:58 PM ^
Pump fake. Pivot. Protects himself by using the opposite side of the rim. Those are lost art post skills, man. I love it.
December 2nd, 2015 at 6:24 PM ^
For the life of me, I can't understand why the post game has become such a lost art. The moves are so simple, yet so effective. Like, it probably takes all of a couple hours in the gym to get an up-and-under move down, and a decent athlete could feast on that all day in college.
December 2nd, 2015 at 6:27 PM ^
December 3rd, 2015 at 12:29 AM ^
Yes, talk about a lost art. It's all 3s or dunks. All Hero ball stuff.
They're boring and they are not "efficient", but man mid-range jumpers are always open these days.
Teams that can shoot them have killed us . . . from Arkansas in the Regional Final in '94 to Lousiville in the NC in 2013.
December 3rd, 2015 at 12:49 PM ^
why not go back to Cazzie and the 1960s. Different time, different game. Where's the hook shot?
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:01 PM ^
Still think Ride of the Valkyries needs to play when Wagner enters the game.
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:04 PM ^
Basically the anti-Doyle. Doyle came in last year and he's been a decent player, but was already near his ceiling. Vast improvement was not expected, because where was it going to come from?
Wagner has, as mentioned, tremendous offensive skills: great looking shot, soft hands (Doyle def does not) and the ability to handle it and drive a bit.
He also makes a TON of mistakes, which will be correctable. He hasn't figured out when to pick and choose his spots as he's way too aggressive (made a bad decision late to try to split two defenders and lost the ball, almost lost it on a fast break he shouldn't have been leading), he makes a lot of really dumb fouls going for blocks and rebounds and steals that he has no chance of getting. All these things actually don't bother me, because once he gets coached up, he should be a major force. Hopefully, there isn't a language barrier to getting there!
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:22 PM ^
You can't teach talent Give him a raw guy with talent and he can make him into something special. Wagner clearly has talent.
December 2nd, 2015 at 6:33 PM ^
He's been trying to do a little too much and playing a little too aggressive on offense, but it seems like that's really because he's been trying to prove himself in the minutes he's being given after not being used much early in the year.
There was an obvious foul that wasn't called when he tried to split the defenders and lost the ball. Without the foul, he gets through and probably scores. You could also tell he was aware of himself trying to do a little too much after that -- he had a couple a nice kickouts for open perimeter shots (and a couple passes that were a little off-target and couldn't lead to shots, but nonetheless were still good ideas on Wagner's part).
I haven't seen him take too many dumb fouls. When you're the only big on the floor for your team, fouls are gonna happen.
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:19 PM ^
He and Robinson have both been fun to watch, and have made a very positive impact.
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^
I know Doyle started but, 23 minutes for Mo last night to Doyle's 16. Maybe it's not going to play out that way in games to come or maybe it is.
Michigan's not hurting for O with or without Wagner, but right now Doyle's just not getting it done defensively, so you might as well play the guy bringing something substantial to the table.
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:28 PM ^
beilein was ahead of this curve (see: pittsnogle) but youre starting to see the de mode centers in the nba as essentially bigs with wing man skill (see: porzingis and draymond). wagner has game very similar to porzingis who is all of a sudden birthing optimism for the knicks. similarly, i look at umich as a seriously dangerous team if wagner continues to progress by march. you're dealing with a lineup of five scorers who can pass it and interchange on the court--thus returning 'the beauty' to beilein's patented motion offense.
December 2nd, 2015 at 4:44 PM ^
I like bringing instant offense off the bench whenever we're lagging to start, also allows Wagner to find his confidence against back-ups early in games and still get the lion's share of the Center minutes.
December 2nd, 2015 at 5:02 PM ^
December 2nd, 2015 at 5:33 PM ^
Maybe not this year given the makeup of our roster (read, plethora of talented wings and dearth of big men), but in the long run is there any possibility of Moe playing power forward, next to a more traditional center (Doyle or Teske)?
For the entirety of Beilein's tenure he's been forced to play undersized guys at the 4, leading to major issues when we play teams with multiple big men. It would be so nice if, for once, we could trot out a true stretch four, rather than forcing a natural small forward to play that role. We'd be able to compete better on the boards and defensively without sacrificing spacing.
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