2015-16 nc state

Wagner is the rare C that can attack off the dribble. [Bryan Fuller/MGoBlog]

After playing all of 22 minutes through Michigan's first four games, freshman center Moe Wagner poured in 34 points on 21 shot equivalents over the last three contests—incidentally, all Michigan wins. He's gone from the #4 center to the #2 center in the span of a week; with how he's playing on offense, John Beilein may have no choice but to start him before long.

That's because Wagner's offensive skill level is leaps and bounds better than any other center on the roster in a way that opens up the entire offense. That impact was on full display last night against NC State.

Let's start with a look at his dunk; Wagner holds the ball at the top of the key, Michigan runs action like he's going to hand it off to Caris LeVert, and instead he goes off the dribble to posterize a guy:

Wagner's understanding of how the defense will react to this is so impressive for a freshman. He goes to the hoop the moment his defender, Beejay Anya, takes a false step towards LeVert; he also seems acutely aware that the weakside defender took a step out of the paint—he doesn't hesitate to go for the dunk because of the room that provided him.

Speaking of room, check out the spacing a skilled center provides in a John Beilein offense:

With two very dangerous shooters on the other side of the floor and Wagner operating on the perimeter, five NC State defenders have a combined one foot in the paint. This is also quite helpful when running the pick-and-roll, and Wagner did a great job as the roll man last night.

[Hit THE JUMP to see Wagner's impressive instincts on the high screen.]

THE ESSENTIALS

Right: "Mini mascot and cheerleader" circa 1970s.

THE STAKES

After the ACC won the first ten ACC/B1G Challenge titles, the Big Ten has won four of the last six, and the other two were ties. This year, however, KenPom says there's a high likelihood the ACC flips the challenge back in their favor:

I ran a Monte Carlo simulation using the current ratings and not surprisingly, the ACC is a heavy favorite to emerge victorious. There’s a 63% chance the ACC wins at least eight games and just an 18% chance the Big Ten wins at least eight.

There's a better chance of a 7-7 tie (19%) than an outright B1G win. Despite being on the road, Michigan has one of the more winnable games of the challenge, which stands at 1-1 after Wake Forest beat Rutgers and Minnesota took down Clemson yesterday.

From Michigan's perspective, tallying a road non-conference win over a decent opponent could be huge come March. If they can't pull it off tonight, they'll get one more chance when they go to SMU next week, but NC State is their best shot.

THE US

This should come as little surprise:

At Beilein's pre-NC State press conference. Beilein says that Wagner will be the second big off the bench right now (behind Doyle).

— Kelly Hall (@kellyhall20) November 30, 2015

After seeing how little Spike Albrecht has played so far this season, this may also be unsurprising, but it sure is disconcerting:

Michigan coach John Beilein said Monday that Albrecht, whose return from offseason surgery on both hips has not progressed as hoped, will no longer practice with the Wolverines, instead opting to use that time for continued rehabilitation.

"If we have a choice right now of two hours of therapy at one of the therapy centers here in Ann Arbor or two of practice, it's going to be two therapy — just to do whatever we can to get him ready," Beilein said.

Albrecht is still available to play "spot minutes"; he's clearly well short of 100% and has already ceded a lot of his playing time to Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the preview.]