Big Ten Recruiting Update: Sleeping Lions Awaken Comment Count

Ace


bad at timeouts, still good at crootin [Fuller]

When this not-quite-monthly feature last ran at the end of June, Ohio State and Michigan occupied the top two spots, as expected, but Penn State languished in the bottom half of the conference rankings.

1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Rutgers
4. Iowa
5. Northwestern
6. Nebraska
7. Michigan State
8. Maryland
9. Wisconsin
10. Penn State
11. Purdue
12. Illinois
13. Minnesota
14. Indiana

Outside of the locked-in top two, the rankings saw considerable movement as many prospects looked to end their recruitment before the beginning of fall camp. No Big Ten program made more progress than PSU, which picked up seven commits since the last update. The current standings:

The conference is also settling into more clear-cut tiers, which I'll cover after the...

[JUMP]

...jump. Hello again.

Tier One: Yes, The Two Top-Seven Teams Are In A Tier, Please Stop Arguing About This

It was a relatively quiet month for Ohio State, which means they only picked up five-star MD DE Chase Young and four-star CB Amir Riep. They remain the #1 class in the country, though Alabama has closed the gap to only a couple points (practically nothing in this system). While the only thing that'll keep OSU's top-300-or-bust class out of the top spot is a lack of quantity, that looks like it'll be an issue—working off the numbers Cleveland.com provided this week, OSU would need considerable attrition off the current roster just to reach 20 open scholarships, and they're at 16 commits right now.

Michigan is at #7 in the country right now, but they're much closer to LSU at #3 overall than the next-best Big Ten team (PSU at #19), so if you're here to complain about tiers, please don't. We've been over this in two different comment sections.

Tier Two: Solid, Indistinguishable

As mentioned, Penn State vaulted up to #19 in the rankings due to seven recent commits. The headliner among that recent group, going by composite ranking, is four-star VA S Jonathan Sunderland, who like fellow Canadian import Luiji Vilain is playing out his high school career in Virginia. (Michigan offered Sunderland but he wasn't a take come announcement time.) The real headliner, though, is three-star IN WR Mac Hippenhammer, who is named Mac Hippenhammer.

Maryland is only two spots behind PSU at #21 overall after adding four commits (and losing one to Virginia) in July, led by in-state corner Deon Jones, who sits just outside the composite top-100. DJ Durkin has done an excellent job of recruiting the DMV area: counting five-star IMG transfer Josh Kaindoh, ten of the Terps's 15 commits hail from Maryland, Virginia, or Washington DC.

A mere eyelash (.06 points) behind is Iowa, which fell back to the pack a bit, only picking up two commitments since the last update. One of those, however, was the #102 recruit in the country, Texas corner Chevin Calloway. That gives the Hawkeyes two blue-chip recruits from Texas (RB Eno Benjamin), which is two more than I would've expected.

Tier Three: I Won't Make A Joke About MSU Being Rutgers Because I Remember Certain Things All Too Well

But seriously.

Rutgers is next up due almost entirely to volume. They have four commits in the top 700 overall, and the fourth is #689. Chris Ash added a legacy commit, three-star in-state DE Mike Tverdov, in July, and that was it. WV DT Darius Stills was a RU commit for all of a day until getting yoinked away by West Virginia, the offer he really wanted.

Michigan State got a head-to-head win over Michigan for four-star TE Matt Dotson to open the month of July and grabbed three-star Cass Tech OG Jordan Reid a couple days later. Since then, though, they've only picked up low three-star CB Josiah Scott. The Spartans are going to move up sooner or later as they fill out their class after the Rutgerses of the world are mostly full, but this still has to be a disappointment coming off a playoff berth.

Nebraska gained commitments from a pair of three-star prospects, FL DE Guy Thomas and LA FB Ben Miles. The Huskers have put together a sneaky-good class—30th overall despite only 13 commits—and could move up a decent amount if they're able to close on a couple of their top targets.

One spot behind the Huskers is Northwestern, which picked up only three-star GA RB Kyric McGowan since the last update.

Tier Four: Um... Wisconsin? You There?

I'm feeling even better about being vocally skeptical of Paul Chryst and Wisconsin on WTKA this morning after checking in on their recruiting class. Since early May, the only Badger commit has been a three-star corner who's heading into a year of prep school. Three of their top five commits are offensive linemen, which is promising for that particular position group and not so much for the rest of the program.

Tier Five: Bad

The most notable thing to happen between Indiana, Purdue, Illinois, and Minnesota over the last month-plus: the Hoosiers added jumbo DT Juan Harris, he of the the umpteen Iowa commits and decommits, on July 25th. It's August 18th, and remarkably, Harris is still on the Indiana commit list.

Comments

ak47

August 18th, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^

I mean its not worth getting into again, I think I started it last time and the argument is that it is allowed to have tiers of 1 team because a more accurate grouping would be tier 1 osu, tier 2 michigan, tier 3 where Ace starts. 

But like Ace said its not worth arguing again.  OSU has a much better class than michigan in pretty much every imaginable way right now so believing they are equal because they are close in the technial rankings (as ace points out Michigan is closer to #3 in points than #19 psu but doesn't mention we are the same distance behind osu as psu is behind us).  If 44 points is enough to distinguish between psu and michigan being on different tiers I'd think a 47 point difference would imply michigan and osu are on different tiers too. Its all semantics anyways and Michigan is geting enough top tier talent to compete.

The important difference is that Michigan could get some elite talent still (looking at you DPJ, Ambry Thomas, etc.) which is the real thing osu has over us right now and how it ends is more important than where it stands and Michigan has a ceiling of a class that is close to osu, we just aren't near that ceilieng yet.

funkywolve

August 18th, 2016 at 6:14 PM ^

I don't worry too much about what the ranking is - 5, 8, 16, etc.  I pay more attention to the average ranking per player.  With 247 right now, OSU is at 94.69, Michigan is 89.06 and PSU is 87.4  OSU is 1st in the overall rankings, UM 7th and PSU 19th.  So while Michigan is closer to OSU in the overall rankings they are much closer to PSU in the average per player.

The team rankings can tend to get inflated based upon how many recruits a school signs.  Probably one of the best examples of this was in 2007.  USC ended up with the second ranked class and Tennessee ended up with the 3rd ranked class.  However, Tennessee had 32 recruits and USC only had 18.  Tennessee's average star per player was 3.63 while USC's was 4.22.  Those two classes might have been ranked 2nd and 3rd but I'd take USC's class over Tennessee's 8 days a week.

In reply to by Pepto Bismol

ak47

August 18th, 2016 at 4:04 PM ^

Ha yeah I realized that after I posted, was just responding to the question and it got longer than it should have, tried to make sure I was clear it was about semantics and wasn't going to go back and forth with people this time.

Gameboy

August 18th, 2016 at 5:43 PM ^

But Ace is countering his own argument by using points to talk about how much of a gulf there is between 1st tier and the 2nd tier. If you don't want people to use overall points to how to separate tiers, then don't do it yourself and do it selectively. Have a clear definition like tier 1 = top 10, tier 2 = top 25, etc.

dcmaizeandblue

August 18th, 2016 at 3:14 PM ^

Pretty bummed about not getting Mac Hippenhammer. Unfortunately I spent all my "super awesome name" hope on McDoom last class, which is fine I guess. And what a waste that they don't put names on the back of their jerseys.

Hannibal.

August 18th, 2016 at 3:17 PM ^

Gawd that Ohio State recruiting class.  Coming on the heels of a couple more just like it.  We need to beat them sooo badly this year.  I'm already looking forward to when Urban Meyer is gone.

stephenrjking

August 18th, 2016 at 3:20 PM ^

We need to land some more good athletes to keep up with them.

And yes, it may not be fair that a lot is riding on this season, but it is. Demonstrate that Michigan is on a championship trajectory and the recruits will come; fall short, and then suffer through a rebuilding year next season, and it's a lot harder to tell guys that we are as good a destination as Columbus for winning.

DonAZ

August 18th, 2016 at 3:31 PM ^

Agree ... Michigan has to show they're on the right track in 2016.  A 9-3 season is likely a disappointment; a 10-2 with losses to MSU and OSU (which puts us out of the B1G championship race, most likely) would hurt.

But ... there is also the question of how well players for a team get to the NFL.  Winning and that metric are correlated, but not lock-step.  If Michigan can become one of those "pipeline to the NFL" schools, then the draw will be there.

SpikeFan2016

August 18th, 2016 at 8:16 PM ^

10-2 with losses to OSU and MSU 100% puts us out. 

OSU would have to lose to PSU, Wisconsin and MSU. Which means MSU would have to lose THREE games to teams not named Michigan and Ohio State. Not a chance. 

 

Honestly, we likely don't even make it to Indy at 11-1 without beating both, especially OSU. 

 

We need wins this year for recruiting, mental health of the fanbase, team morale, and to actually show that Michigan is back. 

 

Harbaugh going 0-4 against Dantonio and Meyer to start looks horrid. 

SpikeFan2016

August 18th, 2016 at 10:58 PM ^

Regression in year 2 is what you're aiming for?

9-3 likely means we beat zero ranked teams. Or perhaps we beat 1 but suffer a terrible upset. 

 

Given the fact that nearly our entire team is back (and both of our top competitors lose more talent than they have in at least 5 years) and our coach is supposed to be elite, 9-3 would be a disaster. 

BlueKoj

August 18th, 2016 at 11:36 PM ^

This is unreasonable and ridiculous both when analyzing the rosters, schedules and coaches on paper and when thinking about the negative consequences of 9-3 (likely meaning losses to OSU and Sparty). You gladly taking 9-3 can only be the result of some combination of fear, loathing, ignorance and sarcasm. 9-3 would be awful on every level with this team given the expectations, football realities, hype and media.

JeepinBen

August 18th, 2016 at 3:34 PM ^

The NFL draft will be just as important. The fact that Harbaugh took a cast-off QB from Iowa and got him drafted (in the 6th, but still) is huge. It was hyperbole, but when Calipari said that all 5 of his starters getting drafted was the best night for UK Hoops ever he was close. The NFL factory will get recruits coming as much as a Natty will.

dragonchild

August 18th, 2016 at 8:17 PM ^

From a recruiting standpoint we don't have to beat OSU; we just can't get walked all over like last season.  The 2013 loss to OSU didn't have any recruiting impact.  Losing by 1 point to a top-5 team doesn't damage your cred.  It was only when 2014 was such a very obviously bad team that recruits left in droves.  I mean, did anyone rush to commit after we won the Northwestern sludgefest?  Some HS football recruits can be pretty dumb because they're high schoolers FFS, but they do know football, and the difference between a competitive loss to a powerhouse and being slightly less worse than an awful team.

Recruiting isn't riding on beating OSU.  We need to beat OSU because everyone's tired of losing.

maize-blue

August 18th, 2016 at 3:29 PM ^

That's what I'm saying, in regards to beating them this year. Most people are just assuming that they will be steamrolling by the end of the season and we may not win, 50/50 at best. If we can't knock them off this year, when does it happen? They'll be better and more experienced next year and the year after that. 2016 is as good as it's going to get for an opportunity go knock them off when they are "down". 

If we pull out a victory this season, contine the uptick in recruiting, we can get momentum and I think we can pull even. Another loss and I'd estimate 2-3 years before we could beat them. 

I feel similar in regards to MSU. 

charblue.

August 18th, 2016 at 4:03 PM ^

Quite frankly, the worst margin of losing outside the Rodriguez era between Michigan and Ohio State was last year. OSU has to play Sparty and Michigan back to back this season. I wouldn't want that schedule. I guess I just don't buy this trending view except from the standpoint of the current outlook because you don't know what either team wiil look like at any point forward. It's just speculation.

The Buckeyes will be challenged in E. Lansing just as Michigan will. But rival games are always distinct  from other Big Ten matchups. It's rare, in fact, when you don't get either a close game or a blowout because of the energy and commitment involved regardless of the venue.

I just don't get the MSU-OSU mindset about their matchup, which seems to gravitate more toward mutual respect than, of course, either shows when facing Michigan. This might be true only because of Dantonio's past connection to Columbus.

I think I am less skeptical of the recruiting rankings and player separation status given the current coaching our guys get. The difference in ahtletic ability is based on looking at each guy as an individual performer in a game where success is mostly-unit based. While one athlete can make a difference on both sides of the ball, I would have to argue that Michigan currently sports the most dynamic player in college football. And having him and Rashan Gary counts for something when other players are making school choices.

Is it a lock that Peppers won't be around next year? I guess that depends on what happens this season, and the same can be said for Ohio State even with a smaller class to fill.

ak47

August 18th, 2016 at 4:49 PM ^

Coaching ability is great and helpful but Meyer is just as good as a college coach as Harbaugh is.

The reason we want to out recruit MSU is because look at what happened to them against Bama.  A well coached underdog team might be able to pull off a big upset, the chance of doing it in back to back games against elite teams is pretty small.

bluebyyou

August 18th, 2016 at 5:04 PM ^

You hit the nail on the head.  Meyer and his staff are excellent in their coaching and recruiting, as much as I hate to admit it. Meyer's success at two programs confirms this.   Right now, OSU has greater depth due to its many years of top recruiting and Meyer's tenure. This year, at least, Michigan should match up very well with the Buckeyes.  It may come down to the team that wants it more.

Regardless, OSU's recruiting class for 2017 is very impressive.

newtopos

August 19th, 2016 at 12:49 AM ^

Unfortunately for us, he's had success at each stop, which includes Utah and Bowling Green as well.  His 2004 undefeated Utah team ended up ranked No. 4 or 5, was ranked the whole year, and won each game by at least two touchdowns.  I'm glad we have Harbaugh, wouldn't trade him, but Meyer can flat out coach (and recruit).

jabberwock

August 18th, 2016 at 7:54 PM ^

 "Meyer is just as good as a college coach as Harbaugh is"

removing the maize glasses, but Harbaugh isn't even close to Meyer.

Best possible coach for Michigan, wouldn't even trade him for Meyer, absolutelty love him.

but better, or even "as good" as Meyer?  Evidenced by what?

worse overall record, worse winning pct., less conference championships, no undefeated seasons, no national championships.

It's Saban & Meyer as 1a & 1b.  Everyone else is in a tier lower than even Ace's screwed up system.

Hopefully Harbaugh's got 10+ years to equal those guys.

Alumnus93

August 20th, 2016 at 12:46 PM ^

wtf??? because Meyer has had a perfect synergy and inherited a great situation, now harbaugh isn't close to him? nonsense. incredible, some of the slapped here are so influenced... harbaugh is very bit the coach Meyer is, if not better. not a slappy speaking. in equal circumstances I'd take harbaugh.

EGD

August 18th, 2016 at 8:50 PM ^

You're only saying that because Harbaugh coaches for Michigan and you don't want to look like a homer. If Harbaugh had gone to three NFC Championship Games in 4 years and then returned to college, took over some other 5-7 team and went 10-3 and had them in the national title conversation heading into his second year, I doubt you'd be saying Meyer & Saban are way better coaches than him.

Oscar

August 18th, 2016 at 11:45 PM ^

"worse overall record, worse winning pct., less conference championships, no undefeated seasons, no national championships." That is your evidence? So I guess Gene Chizik is a better coach than Harbaugh as well? He has more conference championships, a better bowl record, and a national championship. Damn, we got the wrong coach...

jabberwock

August 19th, 2016 at 12:36 AM ^

how exactly do you guys measure colege coaching success?

I measure it exactly the same way Jim Harbaugh does.

Conference championships, National Championships etc.  There are other factors involved so I consider turnarounds, winning % , etc.  

Seriously, how do you guys measure coaching success, the number of Twitter followers a coach has?

Maybe we should just throw out all those fancy stats and go old school, how about beating your rivals?

CalifExile

August 19th, 2016 at 3:17 AM ^

You're changing the debate from who is a better (or "as good") a coach to who has had more success. It isn't surprising that Harbaugh didn't win national championships at San Diego and Stanford (which was 1-11 when Harbaugh arrived). There are too many variables to make a meaningful, direct comparison but they are comparable.