Hoke's 2014 against Harbaugh's 15 and 16
All,
I, like many of us, lost my mind on Saturday both during and after the game. In fact, I posted a comment saying I was done for the season. After talking myself off the ledge, I have provided the following stats, which don't fix the results of this past Saturday's game, but should hopefully help some of us step away from the ledge. All comparisons are made to Hoke's last season.
2014: Hoke's Final Year
Points Per Game: 20.9
Rushing Yds. Per Game: 162.8
Passing Yds. Per Game: 170.2
Total Offense: 333 yds. per game
2015: Harbaugh Year One
Points Per Game: 31.4 (+11)
Rushing Yds. Per Game: 158.2 (-4)
Passing Yds. Per Game: 237.7 (+60)
Total Offense: 395.9 yds. per game (+60)
2016: Harbaugh Year Two
Points Per Game: 40.3 (+20)
Rushing Yds. Per Game: 213.3 (+50)
Passing Yds. Per Game: 212 (+50)
Total Offense: 425.3 (+92)
Who cares, right? /S We aren't beating MSU or OSU, and with Harbaugh came promised results and championships and total world domination!!! Yes, this may be a down year (but who knows because the season isn't over in October) and some of us might have had too high of expectations. You can't except a guy who wears the same outfit every day to do things differently, the expectations of the offense and the way he coaches will remain the same. I maintain that things will get better, hopefully you all can do the same.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:15 AM ^
What frustrates me is that Michigan CAN beat MSU and OSU, they just haven't due to some incredible circumstances.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:29 AM ^
Kills me to say this, but circumstances are an excuse.
Beat them soundly.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:50 AM ^
Your 'excuse' is 'an explanation' to others.
If the ref calls Barrett short (they couldn't confirm their call, it just stood) Michigan wins. Lewerke fumbled Saturday and not only recovered but stumbled forward for a first down. O'Neil's punt against MSU in 2015, etc.
Things just happen sometimes. Eventually, one possession games will go our way.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:18 AM ^
Yep, exactly. Things just sometimes happen, and often at the worst possible time. I mean, honestly, we lost the turnover battle 5-0 and still had a chance to win on the final play of the game (and probably would have had we had just another minute or two to play - basically had Lewerke not made that first down). I truly don't believe I've ever seen that ever in all of my years of playing and watching football.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:58 AM ^
Only the loss to OSU last year stung, because we legitimately could have beat them. And with all our seniors, it would have been a great capstone.
But previous losses OSU, while I would love nothing more than to beat them to a pulp, they were clearly the better team (for a while now), and I can at least rationally understand that they were the better team that day.
But the last two losses to MSU have been infuriating.
We were the better team both times.
Good/players coaches out-scheme, out-execute, out-heart, out-grind, and over-achieve.
Saturday was complete and total under-achievement. And two years was one of the flukiest plays in modern football.
Also MSU a-l-w-a-y-s bullies out players and they just take it/get retaliation calls.
However, the reffing is always unbelievably bias in favor of MSU.
UM is like the only "storied" program that gets PENALIZED instead of FAVORED by referees. Which happens across all sports, for both "star" teams and players, but for some reason UM gets screwed. I truly don't understand it.
October 10th, 2017 at 1:04 PM ^
You should read this 2015 study regarding referee bias that analyzed game data from 2005-12. Michigan (in confrence only) was the second most favorably treated team by referees. Penn State was the most favorably treated. FSU was the least favorably treated. The team effects chart is about 1/3 of the way in; full chart is appendix D at the end.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:16 PM ^
October 11th, 2017 at 12:31 PM ^
I am all for fairness.
That referee bias towards Michigan can be applied during the rivalry games, and the ledger can balance out against UM during Rutgers or Hawaii or whatever.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:21 AM ^
This is all well and good, but its not reality. Meyer has won three one score games against Michigan. OSU isn't 3-0 in those games because they beat Michigan soundly, they are 3-0 mainly because most of the plays that decided the game bounced their way.
Take last year: Ohio State missed two field goals, but were handed 14 pts on interceptions. There is a +8 advantage for them.
There were 4 pass interference (or offensive holding by a DB/WR, I forget) calls that all went OSU's way, two ending Michigan drives, one extending an OSU drive to tie the game. Mike Weber blasts Brandon Watson after a whistle for an obvious 15 yard penalty that isn't called, but Jim Harbaugh gets a "technical in basketball" for tossing some paper.
Curtis Samuel is dead to rights yards behind the line of scrimmage, runs into his own lineman and somehow comes up just short of a first down.
JT Barrett, on 4th and less than a yard gets a first down by at most a couple inches.
Or this year against MSU.
MSU puts the ball on the ground a number of times, each time it ends up safely in Sparty's hands. Michigan puts the ball on the ground.... and each time it ends up safely in Sparty's hands. Ball deflects off a Michigan DB's hands and ends up being a catch for MSU. Ball deflects off of Sparty's hands and ends up a pick. 3rd and 4 after the Isaac fumble and an awful penalty is called on Devin Bush to give them a first down, they end up scoring.
Teams that have great seasons get lucky. You don't beat everyone soundly. We simply haven't had much luck under Harbaugh.
October 10th, 2017 at 1:34 PM ^
All true.
Yet the thing that leaves me still disappointed in the game last Saturday is the following: MSU came in with a handful of really well designed plays that they deployed at opportune times to create 14 points.
Michigan's offensive game plan, in contrast was terrible. No creative or special plays that could scheme a first down or TD at a crucial moment. Poor play selection. Going away from things that worked, etc., etc.
The offensive game plan and play selection was as frustrating as Durkin's failure to make the right adjustments against OSU in 2015.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:43 AM ^
Beat OSU soundly in Columbus? Come on.
October 10th, 2017 at 2:23 PM ^
by a team already this year. And by Michigan teams in the past. That should be the goal.
October 10th, 2017 at 12:39 PM ^
I don't think we'll ever get to a point where we are consistently crushing either of them, but that's not because Harbaugh is a bad coach or because our team will never be elite, but because Meyer and Dantonio are also really good coaches with really good established programs. MSU was 3-9 last year, but that was not even close to who they typically have been for a decade. They're prone to the occasional meltdown, but have pretty consistently been excellent under Dantonio. For the last 10 years, MSU has been more likely to win 11 games than anything else. We should expect to win more than half of the games, but I expect a majority of them to be close. OSU has been a straight up juggernaut during that time. Outside of OSU 2015, our small sample has been filled with extremely close games with our rivals where any one event going differently would see us with a better record.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:39 AM ^
Nonsense... they are beating us fair and square, and seem prepared and beat us to the punch... don't use excuses... they scout our team, yet it seems we are surprised by everything they do, especially sparty..... where is Moeller when we need him.....he knew how to scout the rivals...
October 10th, 2017 at 1:50 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 3:22 PM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 10:16 AM ^
If we seriously are thinking that Harbaugh can't fix this then I give up on our fanbase.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:22 AM ^
would give up on Michigan
October 10th, 2017 at 10:28 AM ^
They declare their intention to do so after every loss. I wish they would stop being such pu**ies and do it. The program would be better for it.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:06 AM ^
We can handle reading it.
October 10th, 2017 at 12:04 PM ^
Putties?
October 10th, 2017 at 1:23 PM ^
That wasn't so bad was it?
October 10th, 2017 at 10:28 AM ^
Agreed. I bookmark pages where people are either overly optimistic or extremely pessimistic. Friday evening you'd think we were unbeatable. By Saturday night around 1130 you'd think we're the fucking Cleveland Browns. I understand being overly emotional (I take the games way too seriously and let it ruin my day/week) but I just can't understand the massive shifts our fanbase has. I like to think those crazy pessimistic people are a small, but vocal minority. But based on the incessant posts of displeasure and panic I don't know anymore.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:47 AM ^
As a fanbase we are better at winning than losing.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:50 AM ^
I tend to agree with this sentiment - at minimum, the people who get so invested that they scream from the rooftops that they are done with Michigan or worse, clearly exhibit bandwagon type behavior, really do need to be placed in a clear subcategory for informal purposes whenever games like this occur.
I mean, one or two threads Saturday night were people declaring they were done with Michigan. OK, bye then, I guess. CLearly we didn't need such people in the first place.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:27 AM ^
was pretty much my whole point. Trust the process.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:31 AM ^
+1. It's just disheartening to think that posts like this are even necessary. It should go without saying that the guy we all prayed for can right the ship.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:30 AM ^
The fanbase is fine. It is the outspoken ones that are intolerable. The internet gives every idiot a voice. Those idiots usually yell the loudest.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:13 AM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 10:16 AM ^
I felt like I was watching an Al Borgess offense on Saturday.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:23 AM ^
Ouch and fair!
October 10th, 2017 at 10:23 AM ^
the draw play call on 3rd and long was an all-timer.
Also want to mention the delay of game on the final drive. Thats not all on Okorn, thats from a play call getting in so late. I do not know the heirarchy of the offense but I have to assume it is causing this dysfunction.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:40 AM ^
Multiple times. We were all saying how good Isaac looked because he busted 15 yard runs on 3rd and long.
Onward.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:21 AM ^
calls may work in one game that wont in another. A draw play on 3rd and long on an MSU defense that attacks the middle is stupid.
October 10th, 2017 at 9:43 PM ^
UF had a strong DL also. Looking back, we should have run those draw plays on 3rd down all day long. At least we would have punted and played field position instead of throwing interceptions. We maybe crack a 1st down 1 in 3 drives, get short fields for another TD chance since MSU couldn't do anything.
That's not how it works so onward we go.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:28 AM ^
October 10th, 2017 at 10:18 AM ^
Who promised the results and championships? Harbaugh didn't... Said he wanted them, and they'd work hard for them. But never promised them. They'll come when the team is ready for it. Harbaugh has never liked to lose - rest assured he will do whatever he can to win (short of cheating).
October 10th, 2017 at 10:26 AM ^
to imply that Harbaugh promised anything. More like how some of our fanbase has equated the hiring of Harbaugh = championships and that these things just happen no matter who is on the roster or what circumstances arise.
October 10th, 2017 at 11:01 AM ^
Does not matter whether or not Michigan coaches promise championships. The program has 42 of them and the expectation is that you win championships. Harbaugh is the highest paid coach in the nation for this reason.
The last podcast by Brian and Ace explains some of the woes on offense and really break down why this is truly year two for Harbaugh. I am on the side that believes he will beat those teams regularly, we have just experienced two losses that could have gone our way making the record 3-2 as opposed to 1-4. We do not live in an era of patience and those games along with championships must be earned soon.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:19 AM ^
There have been some good times, some good wins, and so forth, so I don't want to seem overly pessimistic. But man, being a diehard UM fan has been hard more often than not the last 10 years. And really, if you add in the dismal 2005 year and even the way 2006 ended (losing AGAIN to OSU and getting creamed by USC in the Rose Bowl), shit has sucked since the 2004 B1G Championship year.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:23 AM ^
I agree with you there. Definitely feels like we can't have nice things. A lot of kicks to the dick. Shows how much damage a bad (or non-existent) succession plan can do to a program. Really boggles my mind how we didn't have an heir apparent lined up to take over for Lloyd.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:34 AM ^
When Lloyd retired I was still all smiles
Herbstreit said that we'd get Les Milles
Didn't know what to think about the spread
Mallet left and I thought we were dead
First year under Rich Rod was a disaster
Spread offense needs a qb much faster
Suffered for two miserable years
Then you dried up all my tears...........
October 10th, 2017 at 10:37 AM ^
An Ode To Brady Hoke?
October 10th, 2017 at 10:55 AM ^
Ahhh. Honestly I've tried my best to forget anything from 2008-2014. Completely missed this.
October 10th, 2017 at 12:27 PM ^
CRISPed, did you know Pat?
I was good friends with Devin from the jappiness video.
October 10th, 2017 at 7:42 PM ^
No. But I enjoyed his videos.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:25 AM ^
you said it well. it was either Marcus Ray or Jamie Morris on WTKA yesterday said how Jim Tressel killed Michigan Football. that four year stretch 04-07 was brutal and has set the tone for the last 10+ years.
October 10th, 2017 at 10:29 AM ^
but we have to put the past behind us, like the players do. The mindset of 'it's been a year of heartbreak for Michigan fans' is unfair for Coach Harbaugh to have to deal with, he wasn't involved with the other stuff. Actually, considering where the program has been, you'd think people would be pleased with back to back 10-3 seasons; that hasn't happened in awhile. The loss to Sparty hurt viscerally but I think we need to give Coach more rope. The program is heading in the right direction.