Basketball Recruiting: will this year's success have an impact?
Like many on the board, I am waiting for tomorrow's game with Oklahoma State. While waiting, one thing I am interested in is the potential impact this season has on recruiting.
It has been said by many that Michigan is a tier 2 basketball school, and that it will never compete on the level of North Carolina, Kentucky, Duke, UCLA, Louisville, Villanova. I'd like to know: why not? I understand that there is a history at those schools. But why not build a new history here? There was an article I read about the high quality of Michigan's strength and conditioning program for basketball. Camp Sanderson has made a difference. Beilein also has received significant national praise for his coaching acumen. Does this matter at all?
It has been said that Beilein will never have real recruiting success until he "gets his hands dirty." Is it absolutely necessary to be corrupt and to pay players off in order to attract the best players?
It has been said that one and done guys want to play a different style of ball, and that Beilein's schemes are too boring, too cerebral, too difficult.
It has been said that Beilein has no connection with high school coaches in Detroit and Chicago, areas with significant amounts of talent. That AAU and Club coaches and HS coaches steer kids away from Michigan. Is this true? Can this be changed?
Let's look at several players.
- Brian Bowen, 5 star forward out of Saginaw, best player in Michigan in 2017, #15 in country, considering MSU, 'Zona, UCLA. He eliminated Michigan from consideration.
- Mohamed Bamba, 5 star center out of Harlem, 7'1", #3 player in the country in 2017, considering Duke, Kentucky, Michigan. Widely thought to be interested only in KY and Duke, a strong possibility of a one and done.
- Romeo Langford, 5 star guard out of Indiana, #3 in 2018, considering Duke, KU, NC, KY, IN, Louisville, Purdue, UCLA. Not a Michigan target at all.
- Ayo Dosunmu, 4 star PG out of Chicago, top 50 in 2018, considering Illinois, NW, among others, not looking at Michigan.
All of these guys are in Michigan's footprint. Adding a couple of them could make a huge difference. Right now, that doesn't seem to be in the cards.
(I won't look at 2019 because Michigan doesn't put offers out that early. There are two 5 star guys from Michigan . . . . Weems and Armstrong.)
Others have done the research, but it has been suggested that to win the tourney, it is almost a necessity to have a couple NBA caliber kids on your team. It doesn't seem Michigan is quite there yet. Will this year's success cause a couple high level kids to take another look at Michigan? Or is that just wishful thinking that ain't gonna happen?
have programs where additional benefits other than just a scholarship are given to a recruit (not sure about WVU).
I also think that his personality hurts as well. Sam Webb, guys here, as well as MLive guys have put out on numerous occasions that Coach B is not the nicest/easiest to get along with guy. Harbaugh seems to have that personality that people tend to gravitate towards and finds ways to relate to all of these different guys (low 2*s up to 5* guys).
Coach B comes off as a my way or the highway type. He recruits old school and it doesn't seem like he goes out of his way to attract top talent. There is no excuse for the number 3 player overall to have to reach out to Michigan to see if they are interested in him or like Jaylen Brown did last year.
Now this is not saying that he doesn't care but can be tough to deal with. Look at the guys he recruits. He has said he won't recruit players who cannot shoot. That takes a lot of players out who are great athletes. The KY transfer next year will be really interesting just from the fact of seeing an athlete out there that JB didn’t recruit out of high school.
Harbaugh is famously prickly, and extremely demanding. If anything, I think Beilein is more personable and "normal".
I'm not talking about coaching acumen or success, just personality.
Being a successful coach requires being respected, not liked.
Harbaugh is universally respected as a great coach - yet he still got canned in San Francisco in large part because of his personality (and the utter incompetence of 49er management).
There are A LOT of people who don't like Harbaugh, including some guys who have played for him. I personally know a kid who played for him at Stanford - while he acknowledged Harbaugh is a fantastic coach, he said to me "honestly, I don't know what that guy's talking about most of the time; I think he's crazy".
If being likeable were critical for successful coaching/recruiting, how do you explain Nick Saban, Bobby Knight, Pat Summit, John Thompson, etc., etc.?
Harbaugh is very demanding, but he also looks at recrutiing like a game that he wants to win. Look at the Aubrey Solomon situation, after he decommitted Harbaugh was still after him, and then when the video surfaced he was still after him. I don't believe JB would do that with recruiting.
Harbaugh is a persistent, relentless recruiter. Beilein is not.
He's also creative and fun, and not afraid to do silly stuff. He seems to have a lot of kid in him, so he probably relates well on that level.
My only beef was with your premise that Harbaugh is a more likeable and friendly guy than Beilein. He has a reputation for being pretty difficult, and sometimes kind of a jerk. There's no question he rubs some people the wrong way.
Don't get me wrong, I think he's a good man - he does a lot of great charity work, he's a very positive role model and leader, and a fantastic coach. He can also be charming and caring, and there's no question he's charismatic. He's one of a kind. I'm thrilled he's our coach!
We're on the same page then. I was just saying what certain people in the media have said about JB. He's not just some nice, sweet old man, he can be really difficult to work with and certain people have had issues with that.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:07 PM ^
We just don't pay players, and player handlers know it.
That's our limiting factor.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:49 PM ^
Or Wichita State, or Duke(Coach K has never been connected to paying players), or MIchigan State, or Oklahoma, or UCLA. None of these schools have been connected to any serious allegations or even rumors and recruit 5-star types. Let's not be ridiculous and say you have to pay players to get good ones.
Instead lets look at more realistic idead as to why Michigan doesn't get top tier talent consistently or even at all. I'll try to do this in order of what I consider importance to high school recruits.
1) Get into the pros early- As a high end prospect, my #1 responsibility would be to turn my talents into millions of dollars as soon as possible. Belein doesn't give freshmen a lot of playing time typically, even highly rated recruits(Mcgary is the obvious example), which hurts your chances of being a lottery pick. Secondly, due to his complicated offense taking time to understand and his propensity for not playing freshmen large minutes, Belein has not had a single one-and-done during his tenure at UM. If I were a highly rated recruit, who doesn't particularly like being forced to go to classes while focussing on my professional future(Basketball), I would be nervous of being stuck at UM for 2 years instead of one. Losing a year of the ability to make millions of dollars and being forced to go to school would sound pretty shitty to me.
2) "Coolness" or Relatability of coach- I know this would matter very little to all of us here at Mgoblog, but if you put yourself into your 17 year old shoes, you would probably care a lot more about the person you will be dealing with every day for the next year. Coach Belein will never be "cool" or even "relatable" to many of these players. I think Belein is cool, but I am a 22 Y/O who posts on Mgoblog even though I go to school in Cali, just because my parents went to UM. Belein has probably tried recruiting top players and has realized that those are not the players that will buy into him and his system due to other factors and gone against the idea of spending time on them, considering he has a very low chance of getting them anyways. We always say that Belein's players get signifacantly better between year 1 and 2 and that is most likely due to a better understanding of the offense. If players are going to start getting really good at Belein's offense by year 2, why get a player who doesn't want to be there fr year 2?
I understand that there are a lot of other factors that play into each players decision, and each player puts a different importance on each category. However, theseseem to be the 2 factors that doesn't allow Belein to recruit at a high level. This is OK! We have never consistently gotten top talent under Belein, however we have made it to an elite 8 and a championship game. Every year, if we are healthy we will be making the tournament and have the potential to make it to the sweet 16 at least. And every few years, we will have the potential of a final 4 team. I think this year has that potential, and it makes sense. Irvin and Walton are the two highest rated recruits on this roster and are seniors. This should be the year where we seem really dangerous in the tourney. And we do.
P.S.- If you look at Kenpom's top rated teams since early february, UM is the 6th best team in the country. You can look at this for yourself by following the link from Brian's post about UM being the 8th best team since the Maverick Morgan event. Stumbled upon this when making my bracket.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:07 PM ^
I would doubt this year would have much of an impact. The best thing for schools with challenging academics (like us) would be a repeal of the one and done rule. Either have no rule and go back to the old days, or adopt the NFL's 3 year policy.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:55 PM ^
I pay a lot of attention to what's going on in the NBA and was at the Sloan/MIT Conference last weekend, and Adam Silver seems to be set on making it 2-3 years minimum since HS to enter the NBA. Teams love it because of the Anthony Bennet draft. They want more time to scout prospects and decrease the chances of busts. Just passing on info I'm familiar with
Do you know if moving to a 2-3 year minimum would have any impact on the D League? I'd have to imagine that they would consider abolishing the D League if there weren't so many young players. Look at the NFL - their "D League" is college football!
March 16th, 2017 at 12:10 PM ^
Always help. We will never be at the level of Kentucky, Duke etc. But you're not required to be to get to and win an NCCA title. I'm happy to keep recruiting players that aren't just looking for a one and done springboard to the NBA.
It would be great to get the Mo Bambas of the world and every now and then we will get some elite guys but not at the same level of the handful of "Tier 1" basketball recruiting schools. I'm ok with that. I trust in Beilein and the draw of Michigan for the right players.
GO BLUE!!
March 16th, 2017 at 12:11 PM ^
SRK writes: "It has been said that Beilein will never have real recruiting success until he "gets his hands dirty." Is it absolutely necessary to be corrupt and to pay players off in order to attract the best players?"
Apparently this is sometimes, if not often, the case. MGoBlog has done as far as saying as much.
Illinois is a case study for how much this matters. They're not too far away from a great source of talent and they struggle to get much (if any) of the top end. For some reason, though, Bill Self can waltz in there regularly and do fine. (Yes, success begets success, good players want to play with other good players, and I suppose TRADITION matters to handful of people, but I'd be surprised if KU is clean.)
March 16th, 2017 at 12:39 PM ^
coached Illinois in the early 2000s. He pretty much built the teams that lost to UNC in the championship,. I'm assuming he's maintained his contacts in Chicago over the years. Agree though on KU probably being dirty.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:12 PM ^
Our coach shies away from one and dones and they're looking for A and A+ in everything off the court. That limits the top guys for whatever reasons and Beilein feels more comfortable with guys that are gonna be around for a few years even if they're less talented overall. Not gonna change until he retires/leaves and we get a new coach.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:13 PM ^
Villanova isn't full of NBA talent either. Very good college players, good system, good coaching and player development.
They won last year on a last-second shot; we came ever so close in 2013. Both schools have one past championship.
Honestly, on paper they're a lot like Michigan - though as a school they are more hoops focused.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:13 PM ^
We don't play the dirty recruiting game$. $ome recruit$ only care about the monie$, or their AAU coache$ determine their landing place$.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:14 PM ^
While everyone wants to have 10 5* players every year like Kentucky, Duke and Louisville, I'd rather have a steady flow of solid citizens/players who have a break out season every 3 or 4 years than have hooker scandals. It sucks that the NCAA lets schools like Louisville have programs because it ruins it for everyone else.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:15 PM ^
expectations coming from the performance of our team under this coach. How many times are we going to have this debate and realize as long as we have this coach, he will operate based on his own philosophy and success formula however that translates in recruiting the type of players we think this program should actually be recruiting based on Michigan's history and brand. It is quite apparent our coachi's desire not to compromise ethics or values as part of making this program, his program, is based in large part on his own coaching experience and system than this program's reach in obtaining high profile athletes.
We went from the Fab Five and then a controversial scandalous meltdown in its aftermath in recruiting similar athletes who were the real culprits of that scandal,not the Fab Five, and Michigan's decision as a university to move away from that tradition of athlete by hiring coaches who were not all about living and dying with whether they agreed to play at Crisler Arena for UM.
There have been many consequences with that direction, perphas none greater than the rise of Michigan's instate rival as a recognized national power in the college game. But it is the choice that the school itself made and has stuck with by the program leaders it has hired.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:21 PM ^
March 16th, 2017 at 12:30 PM ^
Nope, but we can win with 4 stars and some 3 stars.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
No.
We said it would after the NCAA finals. When it didn't happen right away people said give it a year since there was a lag effect. It didn't happen the year after either. So just no - John is too clean in a very dirty world.
This is also not a major milestone season or anything; it's the 8th place team that won it's tourney. Not a 31-3 team or something that would open eyes. But again we did that in the past, and it didn't change the trajectory of recruiting either.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:42 PM ^
signing one and done's. They're too big of an investment in time for what you get out of them for one thing. Coach B would rather invest his valuable time in players who are serious, at least somewhat, about academics and want to stay here for a little while. If anyone believes most of these Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville, etc. players are interested at all in going to class, much less required to do so, then I've got some land in Montana to sell you. Add to this the fact Michigan and Coach Beilein won't do the unethical, illicit stuff like bribing AAU coaches, puts us at a big disadvantage even if we wanted to go after these elite players. Sure, Coach B will do his due diligence if one of them (like Bamba) comes to him with interest in Michigan. But how many of these type of players have come here in the last 4 years?
Yes, having some elite athletes DOES clearly make a difference. But Beilein is going to find them his way and that's going to have to be good enough for the rest of us.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:53 PM ^
But I'm done worrying about it.
March 16th, 2017 at 12:54 PM ^
The B1G title was great, but unless we build on that, we'll just be another 7-seed who lost in the early rounds in the minds of recruits. If we make the Sweet 16, at least, that would be something that we can sell to recruits.
I can't imagine that a Big Ten Tournament title and a 7 seed in the NCAA tournament is going to factor much in to recruiting. Are recruits going to be like "Wow Michigan is a 7 seed so I want to go there"...No I don't think so.
I'm now afraid that at 64, some recruits won't expect him to stay 3-4 years anymore. Yes, won't matter to the expected 1 and dones but the 15-50 range may be infuenced.
OU and Wichita St don't recruit at high levels.
Wichita St has one 4 star recruit on their roster. The rest are juco's and 3 stars.
OU's first 5 star recruit in the last 5 years is a 2017 commit and he's from Oklahoma. Most of their players were 3 star recruits in high school. Held was a 3 star recruit.
Nova just started getting 5 stars. Their team last year was mainly 4 star recruits. In 2012, 2013 and 2014 they signed two 4 stars each year. The players rankings were: 2012 - 49 and 57, 2013 - 76 and 80, 2014 - 74 and 80. In 2015 they signed a 5 star, 4 star and a 3 star (22, 123, 187). In 2016 they signed a 5 star and a 3 star (21 and 140).
by going to the 2013 Natty? I don't think so. Maybe McGary?
I believe it might turn a few heads,but not many...
it will
Based on historical evidence, no.
And it won't change until John B. is more willing to take the 1 and 2 and done guys or at least fight more for them. However, he was willing to relinquish a little control this year regarding the defense. Maybe he will re-evaluate some things in regards to his recruiting style.
No chance. A natty run couldn't help Beilein recruit, a 7 seed certainly won't.
The run to the national title a few years ago didn't help much. I don't think this will either. Unless we actually find a way to win the title.
Beilein has got his methods. His methods are working, so if he says a guy is good enough, I believe him.
I don't think it will help at all. In fact I don't think that many beyond michigan fans see this year as that successful. It's an "ok" year. Yes we, as fans, are super excited about this team and what happened but honestly I bet most casual fans, coaches, and players view this team as sort of "meh" and not all that exciting.
That's very true. Most of the country still thinks we run Princeton's offense and a 1-3-1 defense. That's where that "soft" and "white-collar" stuff comes from. That our key player is from Germany does not help that perception either.
Beilein is a "system" guy. Players have distinct roles and responsibilities, and coordination with the rest of the team is paramont.
A lot of hot shot elite talents don't want to be locked into that kind of a system. They want to showcase their talents.
Most of the players on Freider's / Fisher's elite teams would not have come to Michigan if the Beilein system was in place at the time. Payoff rumors or not.
It is what it is. Beilein is not going to change now. He'll get his role players and develop them at his own pace
I like Beilein, and I will accept how he recruits. I do wish there was a way more 5 star guys would see the value of learning from him, but if all they want to do is showcase their talents, and they're not willing to learn his system and play in it, yeah, that's a problem that can't be fixed.
There are a few people out there who get this, and come anyway. But they are few and far between.