Extension - The more likely scenario
Trying to look at this dispassionately, the situation with Harbaugh, I think, leans much more heavily towards Michigan signing Harbaugh to an extension than towards giving him the boot.
1. They were working on an extension at the beginning of the year before COVID hit. Yes, this year weighs heavily on this, but much of the sentiments in the AD and the statistics they are looking at are the same or very similar.
2. The AD has said that "Harbaugh can stay as long as he wants" or something similar. I don't see one season changing that.
3. 2020 is his one truly bad season. I don't think they'll look at that and say that's enough to set the whole program back to zero. Yes, the performance against the rivals and top 10 stinks, but has that really changed this year? The math is the same when they were talking extension.
4. COVID has changed everything. From eliminating spring ball, stopping the season, starting it back up, dealing with the restrictions required to run a program during COVID, it's just been a mess. I'm sure the retort will be, "but everyone else (OSU, Bama, Clemson, etc.) has had to deal with it too". Yes, they have, and everyone of them has had a COVID outbreak. If we navigate this without an issue, I think that will be held up as Harbs "doing it right" and sacrificing the football for health sakes.
Don't get me wrong, I'm completely unsatisfied and was screaming at the set yesterday and vented a bit here after the game. I'm looking for a coaching change too, but I just don't think it will happen. I think they'll give him an extension with a reworked buy out and a requirement to change the staff, specifically the DC and maybe even the OC. Giving him a "second chance" to turn this around will be deemed fair by the administration.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:28 PM ^
The guy has just driven away too many talented kids and talented coaches have made lateral moves out. That has ultimately led us to this season.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:47 PM ^
I think he should go, but what coaches have left for lateral moves, that haven't been shown the door?
November 29th, 2020 at 1:00 PM ^
Wheatley, Partridge, Baxter, Fisch, Mattison, Washington...
November 29th, 2020 at 1:11 PM ^
The Mattison move is the most interesting.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:25 PM ^
The Mattison move is interesting in that he went to our rival, but was not a lateral move. He was the d-line coach here and took a pay raise and higher position at OSU.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:58 PM ^
I know it wasn't a lateral move, but going to OSU is the interesting part at this point in his career.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:07 AM ^
Eh, he had coached at ND as well. Was Bo a traitor?
November 29th, 2020 at 1:29 PM ^
Also very correlated to our defense falling off a cliff, particularly up front.
November 29th, 2020 at 7:21 PM ^
Mattison isn't interesting, it's self-explanatory. He and Brown didn't get along. Harbaugh didn't think enough of GMatt to even tag him with the Co-D title. GMatt got butt-hurt and started looking around, quit recruiting about a year or so before he left.
OSU paid him, he left. The end.
Anyone who thinks Mattison is super loyal to Michigan specifically obviously hasn't looked at his history.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:36 PM ^
Partridge moved to co-defensive coordinator. Fisch and Baxter were forced out. Washington went home. Mattison is a traitor by nature.
November 29th, 2020 at 2:38 PM ^
Mattison left for a co-DC job that paid him over a million a year.
Jedd left to be an offensive coordinator at UCLA while he was PGC here. That’s not lateral.
I don’t know where Brian got the whole “CP left to be a position coach” thing from when he’s co-DC at Ole Miss and got paid more.
Baxter always preferred USC.
Wheatley went back to the NFL where he was promptly fired two years later.
Al Washington went home essentially.
November 29th, 2020 at 3:05 PM ^
Wheatley became RB coach at Jacksonville. Going from college to pro is not a lateral move. Patridge left to become Co-defensive coordinator, Baxter was special teams coach, not a big loss. Mattison was a Dline coach who is now Co-defensive coordinator and Washington went to the school he played for after 1 year here, and Jedd Fisch was passing game coordinator here and was offensive coordinator at UCLA, and asst Head coach. The only lateral move was from a guy who went to coach at his alma mater.
November 29th, 2020 at 4:56 PM ^
I’m not arguing the point that Harbaugh struggles keeping good assistant coaches, but the only coach on your list that technically made a lateral move was Washington, but even he was born and raised in Columbus.
Wheatley went to the NFL (step up), Partridge got a Co-DC title, Baxter went back to USC and he wasn’t very good anyway and a complete non-recruiter, Fisch went from passing game coordinator to full OC at UCLA, Mattison went from DL to DC.
There are several reasons for Harbaugh to be gone, but assistant coach turnover may be one of the weakest. Great programs lose assistant coaches all the time. Why? Because they’re good coaches with goals of being a head coach or something more. Nothing wrong with that. Alabama loses coaches, OSU loses coaches. The key is being able to hire great replacements, and Harbaugh has had a mixed bag there. Remember, Harbaugh hired all of those guys you mentioned. Where he has failed is in hiring great recruiters at ALL positions. Zordich can coach CBs, but can’t recruit. Brown is a good DC, but doesn’t recruit well. Schoop is not a recruiter. Nua has kinda been a bust who was supposed to boost recruiting. Lo-and-behold, we have issues recruiting CBs and this is where we are. Think it’s coincidence OSUs best position groups are where their best recruiters coach? QB (Day), WR (Hartline), DL (Johnson/Mattison), CB (Coombs/Hafley). Michigan simply has not recruited well enough at multiple position groups.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:29 PM ^
You paint a very plausible picture. I do not at all assume that Harbaugh will leave. He has clearly made a number of mistakes, but injuries and the pandemic might make it possible to overlook them or at least not consider them grounds for firing.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:01 PM ^
0-6 against Ohio State and 3-3 against Michigan State is enough to fire someone who has been paid $50+ million.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:42 PM ^
....and also....
- 0 B1G titles, nor even playing in the title game let alone CFP
- best road win is against #20 Northwestern
- 1-4 in bowl games
- 0-15 when Michigan is an underdog
- 2-12 vs. top 10 teams
- worst halftime deficit in Michigan stadium history & 2nd worst loss ever at home
- loss to an 0-5 team at home
- 4th highest paid coach in the country
November 29th, 2020 at 1:54 PM ^
Also 2-3 against Wisconsin and 3-3 against Penn State.
700 combined rushing yards given up the last 2 years to Wisconsin.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:08 PM ^
There’s a Michigan Daily article from yesterday citing how Harbaugh had to tell his players to cheer and get excited for Henning’s circus catch. You don’t come back from that as a coach if you can’t manage to get 18-22 yo dudes hype after their teammate Mosses a corner. It’s over.
November 29th, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^
Listen to Michael Spath's latest podcast, esp. the last half. There are some very interesting insights about Harbaugh. Needs to change or go.
November 29th, 2020 at 2:10 PM ^
Can you summarize not all that interested in listening to Spath talk? Thank you in advance
November 29th, 2020 at 4:52 PM ^
Yeah those tidbits were damning with regards to Denard and Bush.
November 29th, 2020 at 5:06 PM ^
I just got done with the podcast a moment ago. And Wow! Lots of damning stuff about Harbaugh. Two biggest in my opinion:
1. Last year, players vote for captains and they don’t pick Shea Patterson. Harbaugh specifically adds Shea Patterson as a captain going above the standard process.
2. Players pick Devin Bush as MVP last year, but because he decided not to play in the bowl game, Harbaugh decides to pick Winovich instead.
Former Michigan DE, Will Heininger, was on the podcast and really had to bite his lip and was being diplomatic, but he did say that this team reminded him of the last year of RR (of which Will was part of that team).
Harbaugh is done
November 29th, 2020 at 5:41 PM ^
Also the part about not bringing Denard in and incorporating him into the week. Instead Denard has to go tailgate with his brothers friend and a influential alumn got him into his suite bc Harbaugh gave Denard the (my words) stiff arm.
November 29th, 2020 at 6:16 PM ^
Why the hell did Harbaugh alienate Denard, one of the best & nicest players over the last 20 years??? Because he was a RichRod guy???
November 29th, 2020 at 11:38 PM ^
In his introductory press conference Harbaugh specifically did not mention Rich Rod when naming (and thanking) the coaches that preceded him. I never liked that, and I never forgot it either, as evidenced by my posting it here.
It showed early on that Harbaugh has a tendency to play favorites. For better or worse, Rich Rod is a part of Michigan Football history and as such should be duly recognized especially when you are naming coaches in your speech and he was the coach only 4 years prior! And don't tell me he just "forgot" about him.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:31 PM ^
No way. Recruits and everyone else in the country has watched the shit show that is Michigan football this year and heard the rumors of Harbaugh leaving or being fired. It would take years to dig back out of this mess, and that's the best case scenario. The worst case scenario is this year happening for another two or three years and then leaving a completely depleted program to the next coach. Hopefully Warde is out having conversations with possible candidates right now. If you knew you could get Bob Stoops, or that Matt Campbell was interested why would you extend this staff?
November 29th, 2020 at 7:08 PM ^
MEYER OR HAFLEY
November 29th, 2020 at 8:19 PM ^
I will take Meyer.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^
The more likely scenario is that Harbaugh will leave on his own accord (not fired) after the season is over and cite medical/spend time with the family and then will be back in the NFL next year or the year after.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^
This is less likely than the above scenario.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:22 PM ^
I think its more likely. Harbaugh doesnt sound or look like someone who wants to still be here. Perhaps the extension will still be offered, but I think he looks elsewhere after this disaster of a season.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:54 PM ^
This is what I think is our best hope.
Please be true!
November 29th, 2020 at 2:05 PM ^
A couple of games ago I would agree with you but:
1) Former players are now speaking out - Brian Griese last night on twitter "Enough is enough"
2) He has lost the media - Everyone is calling for a change
3) Next year doesn't look much different considering the talent we have
4) If he stays he would have to fire both Don Brown and Gattis and install new systems
5) He still wants to coach in the NFL and is not getting any younger
November 29th, 2020 at 3:05 PM ^
1) Former players who didn't play for him: Means nothing
2) Media: He shouldn't-and likely doesn't - give a shit what the media thinks
5) How do you know he still wants to coach in the NFL?
November 29th, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^
1) It means something - maybe not to Jim.
2) Maybe he doesn't but it does to people making the decisions, recruiting, selling tickets, etc it matters.
3) Jim is an NFL guy. It is where his brother coaches. If the Michigan job wasn't available he would still be coaching in the NFL. Jim is very competitive and he now knows that it is not an even playing field in the college game. He learned that early on when the NCAA stopped him from running camps.
November 30th, 2020 at 6:16 AM ^
So what if his brother coaches there? That doesn't mean anything. Harbaugh could have come up through the NFL, but he went from a QB coach for 2 years to college. 2002 to 2020 and only 6 of those years have been in the NFL. I think he may very well go back to the NFL. I think he's a better fit there, especially now after losing a lot of his fire, but it doesn't make sense to call him an NFL guy. He easily could have gotten another NFL job after the 49ers.
November 29th, 2020 at 3:11 PM ^
If he stays .... I ask only one thing. Let the OC and DC call their plays. Just plain stay out of it unless the OC or DC asks for his thoughts on a very critical play. Oversee the team as a whole buy hire guys you want / believe in and then let them do their jobs game day.
I believe JH truly has had his hands in the offensive play calling. There is just no way you call plays like "run up the middle" over and over and over like you're insane.
I truly believe Cade was just plain too injured to play correctly vs Penn St. I hope is ok and will be ok for at least the OSU game. If he is not ok let him for sure rest so he can be healthy for the big one. I don't care at this point if we lose to MD and would much rather have a healthy team come OSU day.
November 29th, 2020 at 3:21 PM ^
What the hell has Josh Gattis done to make us think that every stinker of a play call or drive had to be Harbaugh’s interference?
Gattis is exactly what Locksley said he was, an understudy with a notebook who gave input but can’t do shit when in complete control.
November 29th, 2020 at 3:56 PM ^
What position was Locksley trying to hire Gattis to fill at Maryland??? Checks notes...Offensive Coordinator.
Harbaugh has his handprints all over this program. He’s not the CEO hang back and let everyone else work type of person. In some aspects that is good. Good graduation rate, very few public legal issues we are aware of, good handling of the Covid situation, etc. There are also downsides. There is a reason the offense has basically looked the same 5 out of 6 years. Good talent leaves as soon as possible, etc.
November 29th, 2020 at 4:40 PM ^
I don’t think Gattis has done anything, but the play selection screams Harbaugh. They run jet sweep, then a bubble screen, and then a quick hitting rpo and pick 20-25 yards total. Next thing you know they’re in a two TE set trying to pound the ball between the tackles and just like that it’s 3rd & 12. Maybe it’s all Gattis, but it sure feels like Harbaugh gets on the headset and says we’ve just picked up chunks on the outside and the middle is going to be soft now, let’s pound it. No gain, well let’s run it again.
I could be wrong, but it just seems like the offense is constantly being interrupted with Harbaugh’s style.
November 29th, 2020 at 8:59 PM ^
I just can’t see Harbaugh moving on voluntarily on such a low note - especially at Michigan.
However, if he’s staying there needs to be a contract extension asap and a clear path forward. Recruiting will implode even worse if there is no clarity on Harbaughs future. I think there is a punchers chance to extend and clean house on coordinators and forge a new path forward.
Otherwise, rip off the bandaid and clean house.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^
No. He's completely lost the team and the program is in complete disarray. There is no coming back from this. No amount of staff changes or anything else will fix this as long as Harbaugh is HC.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^
Looking forward to see if the basketball team can build on the BGSU win when they take on the Oakland Grizzlies tonight!
November 29th, 2020 at 1:23 PM ^
Honestly came on here looking for some basketball discussion or content. But it is all football even after another disastrous performance. In my mind this season will be over as soon as we stop talking about it, regardless if the team is still playing.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:34 PM ^
He seems to have a serious medical condition that doesn’t allow him to think clearly. He absolutely can’t continue to run the program into the ground because of stubbornness or arrogance. C’mon man!
November 29th, 2020 at 12:38 PM ^
#3 and 4 are the same for everyone. The results speak for themselves.
November 29th, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^
#3 and 4 did not hit everyone equally - anyone claiming so is being intentionally obtuse to promote their argument.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:16 PM ^
How has Covid affected us more than other teams? I didn't think we had many cases this year for the FB team.
November 29th, 2020 at 1:51 PM ^
That’s the point. Michigan is being extra careful. Team meetings are on zoom, limited access to weight room..etc. During the game on of the commentators said that Penn State had to eat separately. Which obviously was something they were not used too..
November 29th, 2020 at 1:58 PM ^
It's not about how many health issues have hit one team vs another - it's about how has the pandemic (and ancillary effects) impacted one program vs another.
Just one talking point example (among many) - how many opt outs have hit OSU versus us and other Big Ten teams (e.g. PSU)?
It has unevenly affected some programs more than others. This is not an excuse for the full state of our program, but my point is that it is highly inaccurate to claim "everyone is dealing with the same thing" in this respect.